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90% down volume day, aaay, nice work on that spreadsheet augie, the down issues was a slam boink too, look the McBiga-loss-ilators are down already at mining depths
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an the permanent bears are already lathered, declaring from every mountaintop to put your head between your legs and kiss your ass good-bye, judgement day is just around the corner, hoo oooo oooo oooo hooo (tim the tool man grunt -g-)
the vix tailed into it's upper band
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and the dow is back down to rock solid 9000 support, which has been a buying area since it broke out, so barring a downside breakout, which could very well happen, but it hasn't been a good bet lately, today could very well have been a flush that will give a few upside days.
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So, when does the fun start?<<<<<
i guess the bear party got started a couple of days ago, when i saw some yippee, yahoo traders on zeev's thread going bonkers on upside breakouts -g-, just like we saw on msnbc com a few days ago -g-
hope everybody is in the pink and got in the door (or out the door) early -g-
that was my vote for best movie of last year.
a picasso on celluloid.
And how did you find cmgi & icge as canaries?<<<<
any of these low quality issues that are trading below or slightly above a $1 are speculative issues, they are particularly speculative after many issues that were trading at these levels back in october are now at 3, 5, $7 or more.
it's just a sign that the lower end of the rung is being moved up, and all the move in the quality issues may have been fully expressed.
imo
since season has been opened on bears since just prior to the vernal equinox, we have to have an open search to see if any of them are left standing.
. I think he got shot for being factually irresponsible.<<<<
well in the first half of this year you could shoot about every movie for being factually irresponsible, or just plain irresponsible,
there hasn't much quality out here, last year about that time there was "the road to perdition" and "frida", some quality,
but this year it's just summer movies, sequels, and also rans
<<<little doggie shivering in anticipation>>>
no your little doggie is shivering in anticipation of a kibble or a slap across the snout -gg-
this was my final sentence in that post, i'm a lil bearish right now, just a wee bit.
the rise off the early july lows may be retraced in full.
Any body seen "The Italian Job"??<<<
ya, it's good, anything with charlize theron is GOOD -g-
it's on the outs on most movie playlists about now.
pirates of the caribean,
love johny depp, but i felt i was taking another pirates of the caribean ride through disneyland, they even stole a scene out of burt lancasters, 'crimson tide' (i think that was the name -g-), doesn't compare to any of the swashbuckling pirate movies of the 50's and 60's IMO, movies have become to much about style and less about substance, that is the summer movie scheme and they can sell the sizzle/
We had some pretty good bearish sentiment in early july, but now the cboe has come down and touched the lower band, and the bears are whining again, i challenged a pessimist on this thread on friday and got no response, maybe some st capitulation, also icge and cmgi are like canaries in the coal mine, they have popped on volume over the last few days, the naz is gapping and grapping off the upperband for several days now, the rise off the early july lows may be retraced in full.
off topic
Haven't figured out how to get individual charts posted with my single-click Mac mouse<<<<<
The control button + click on the mac adds similar functionality to the right button on the pc mouse.
however on the pc you get the "properties" box that augie describes in his instructions, on the mac your only opportunity is to open the graphic in a new window.
once you've done that you can copy everything in your url address box after http://
and paste in between the html chart codes in your post as described in augies instruction.
don't forget the backslash in the last bracket-chart-bracket code that ends the html sentence and tells it to send it to the screen.
now that i've given you the keys to the kingdom and made you an HTML coder gone wild, you can post disclaimers like me.
IF YOU FOLLOW ME YOU MAY END UP ON A THREE HOUR TOUR,
a three hour tour, =g=
what the permanent bears don't see is that there was quite a washout of bubblemania going into the 4 year cycle low and 98% of the crap was plunged into the commode, now in the stuff that's left standing, is where you find the next microsoft, dell has broken out of a humungoo base, both it, and lt, and projects back to a test of the 00 highs.
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WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE JUST GIVE ME ALL THE ANSWERS?
I'm a nice doggie. Don't I deserve to be filthy, stinking, obnoxiously, fabulously, RICH?!<<<<
augie, i will give you all the answers,
buy at the low,
sell at the high,
hrm. well since my dad and mom both work in the semiconductor industry, there isn't a whole lot of psychic power required here.<<<<
well hell yes dood, you still require a lot of psychic power to trade the markets, do you know that earnings increased during the almost 2 decade bear market of the 60's to the early 80's, and what brought the market down was p/e compression (sentiment) and the market went bazoom in the 90's mostly on p/e expansion,
the market isn't the fundamentals, the market is the reaction to the fundamentals.
markets don't trade based on fundamentals based on graham and dodd, 30's thinking now, and it's misplaced to base trading strategies on past economic models, or market theories, it has been for some time, since the early 90's.
markets trade on supply and demand. and demand is in control when the moving averages are going up, and supply is in control when the moving averages are going down.
it's that simple,
swami's declaring tops and bottoms, that declare definitively earnings are going to be a minefield, or earnings are going to be a bonanza for the market . . .
better hope they got lucky on that draw.
It is fair to be critical, but to continuously do so over and over without offering even a semblance of an alternate plan of attack is not at all fair IMHO.<<<<
yes, that's true, but don't too be too hard on critics - they are the life-blood of social and economic forces, it's the forces of counterbalance in the US govt, between the president, the congress, and the supreme court,
nobody is above reproach,
otherwise, we would all be marxists about now -s-
Zeev, I'm sorry to say I posted some harsh comments to Babylon, concerning his what I consider continuous critical comments of your model and work over the last couple months - I just get so tired of people critisizing you and your model,<<<<
gawd, do you think zeev is gawd, he can't predict the future, nor can anyone, i don't think a lot of people get this on this thread, read this again: ZEEV CAN'T PREDICT THE FUTURE, NOR CAN ANYBODY ELSE.
anybody that puts out future predictions on these threads should be naturaly open to critical comments,
As soon as we get a little rambunctious market like in the last three months, everyone is going back to the old habit of LTBH... my PM box gets filled with "I don't want to have a stop I like the stock for the long term".<<<
this market is a lot different than the previous bear rallies, and has surprised most on the upside,
we had a 4 year cycle low in 2002, it's no doubt now,
the bears are going to get ground out here till their broke,
bears markets kill the bull hogs first, then they kill the bear hogs,
then they take the ticker off Times Square and nobody cares about the market anymore, that's where the bull market starts, it may take a decade or more.
well if that was a fact and known to everyone, it is no longer a conspiracy.<<<
thanks for your response zeev, i really don't believe in any of these conspiracy theories, i think most of these markets that are traded 24 hours a day around the globe can be manipulated by a few players, these are hugely liquid markets, i think most people that are complaining about the PPT during bear markets and about shorts during bull markets are amateur traders, and don't know how to assess support and resistance, st, it and lt trends.
markets move on the supply/demand dynamic, people buy stocks because they think they will go up, people sell stocks because they think they will go down.
this is a technical traders market, not a fundamentalist market looking to buy the market at 8 p/e ratio, it may come, but it may take a decade or more.
Since the October low, and the more recent March low something has changed that has run under the Turnip radar I think, I'm guessing the massive liquidity. If there were a way to run a Beta Turnip model from those lows, tweaked with updated liquidity parameters, it'd be kind of interesting to see how much the bar may have been lowered to accomodate it instead of fighting it, and the trend recognized at an early stage, instead of the seemingly near constant red flags that go up.<<<<<
what was running under the radar of most - or they didn't take it seriously, too busy chasing wild phantasies of PPT, is that during the bear market the public was buying all the way down, and they started puking up mutual funds at the bottom in july and august and kept selling during this whole basing phase until late march early april,
you can parallel that to rydex, which did the same, and turned extremely bearish into october and has been fading this rally all the way up.
who you gonna phfade, ghostbusters?
this earnings season should be a minefield in tech ...<<<<<
eh?, i'm glad to run across somebody on these threads that is so sure about predicting the future?
can you just tell me the next lotto #'s so i can retire from this crap -g-
you could almost time the tops by the day during the bear market when you saw screens like this on MSNBC com,(yes folks despite all the predictions of doom on these threads, we are not in a bear market, my definition of a bull and bear market is the 200dma, it's going up, it's a bull market, and i think that's an accurate definition, if you look at huge gains in stocks and the miniscule amount of new 52 week lows, since the october bottom and especially the march bottom, you'd have to be a fool to call this a bear market) the other screen is from another widely followed news service, not sure if it's going to be timely here, since we had a break to new highs in the naz, and it seems the level of put buying that we had last week should put a floor in the market for a bit, but you know the ole saying, buy from the morose, sell to the giddy, might just mean a little pullback here.
we had one of these floor traders going yippie about 1-2 days before the top in the nas and the day before the dow topped three weeks ago.
Optimism Pushes Dow Up 147, Nasdaq Up 58
NEW YORK - A burst of optimism about second-quarter earnings propelled stocks ... bla bla bla yadda yadda yadda
eh?<<<<
the details are less significant than the general behavior.
augie, was reading zeev's thread, and noticed you were thinking bearmove, was looking for a bear move -g-, i thought so too., glad his screen name was clarified.
anyway . . .
this chart is from last week, we all are aware of the drying up of earnings warnings and even some upside surprises, but maybe we hit a fairly decent cyclical low in earnings last year.
yep, this is brand spankin' new behavior to see such heavy put buying on minor pullbacks,
DISCLAIMER
If you follow me, your trading account will be turm-ahhh-nait-tdud
haven't you heard?<<<
only listen to those guys when the 10,20,50,200dma is headed down -g-, they aren't getting any, so they have to be down in the mouth about everythin -g-
this is pretty amazin, the 5dma p/c ratio has only been higher than we are now on that pullback in may, and before that at the feb and october bottoms.
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Terminator 3 - surprisingly good, almost as good as 2, which i consider a classic in the summer action blockbuster genre, they dress up arnold well, doesn't look like a past your prime action figure, good character and story development that pulls you in around all the flipping cars and crashing cranes, there were several hilariously funny moments too, It's a good one if your into action movies, best one i've seen so far this year, i haven't seen matrix, but most people told me they didn't like it.
my kitty likes those coiling charts, meow-crosoft has been in a narrow range 24-26.50, while spring has sprung for the rest of the market,
and had a gap across the downtrendline last week on decent volume,
soft may be a late bloomer, it looks like it wants to break out, it's surprising that it didn't sometime ago, i have a few scenarios (up-down-sideways that should cover just about everything -g-)
soft continues to break out early next week, brings the rest of the market with it,
or it consolidates for a while longer, with the market and we retest 1600, i'm long right now, so i'm hoping for the former.
and while your at it check out my new disclaimer, i don't want to lead anybody astray =g=
so augie whaddya think, will we break to new highs early next week or is the naz headed back down to the bottom o' range - 1600
I got a MEOWW-crosoft signal last week -g-
DISCLAIMER: My posts reflect my opinions only! <<<<
nice channels augie, today the market had the chance to break out of the McBigalow Snoozilator and move below 1600 support, but instead of the bears taking control, the bulls kicked em again and did a tail through your channel lines and a tail off the lower band, this could be a bullish spring, while there was some excessive call buying a couple of weeks ago, now they are buying poots over the last several trading sessions like we have been in a major downtrend for several weeks, not a sideways consolidation,
from an elliot perspective, you could put an ABCDE on the nasdaq from the early june top, with today's intraday low being the E wave, get your Earse long, as they say, we shall see.
DISCLAIMER: my posts reflect the opinions of my 3 cats, if they all meow in unison when i prompt them to give me a buy signal, i go 200% long, if they all fall asleep, I go neutral and all cash, if they all head towards their own kitty litter box, I go 200% short =g=
the ladies of waikiki, were the best i've ever seen, been to europe, canada, mexico, vegas,
but never been to se asia, which may claim the crown,
I would've carried your towel and spare whistle even.<<<<
No Lee, i would have carried your towel, and i don't have much of a whistle -g-
DID NOT, spend the most amount of money at 46. I spent the most when I was but a wee lad and somehow found myself in a bordello in Juarez: yes, the walls were a deep, hot red. Not only did I spend my most money there, I like to think I got every dollar's worth.<<<<
damm, i thought i spent my most money, and well spent at that when i was a wee ladd patroling the boulevards at waikiki beach --gg-
Let's be careful not to kick off a "non market related" political discussion on MDA...TIA>>>>
that ok eellgeee, but don't get too constricted here, this thread may need a laxative from time to time, sometimes there are only 10 or 20 post days, a little off topic is not distractive, this thread reads a hell of a lot easier than zeev's or a lot of other thread's for people on a time budget.
this is an interesting chart I picked off Chip, the original "Chip's Charts" now Stockcharts.com.
the volatility in the vle was quiet into the 98 top, that was probably the first salvo after years of low volatility, then the volatility decreased into 2001, the value stocks got hit hard and washed out during the tech bull into march 2000, when people thought that yahoo and amazon was going to put jcpenney and sears out of business -lol-, and had a big comeback into 2001, since then the volatility of the VLE has expanded in this megaphone fashion,
I don't believe this is a consolidation, it's probabably a sign of continuation of volatility, and we are near the recent tops in the $VLE, we could have another leg up out of this flag, if we do that will be a most opportune time to go short,
$NAHLR (New Highs/New Lows) - Wow! Beginning Oct 91, this rarely approached, and never exceeded 50. Until now. Recently printed a high of 271!!!. Even having pulled back, We're still above all but 2 of the highest previous peaks. Don't know what to make of this.<<<<<
there were no 75% pullbacks during the 90's in the nasdaq, obviously from these breadth #'s there was a significant washout during the period from july to march, one that most didn't see, and especially perma-bears, who have been clocked over the last three months.
it would be interesting to look at the breadth statistics on the decline into 1932, and see if there were some bear market rallies that had this kind of breadth behavior.
by the time they broke out the Tijuana Gold<<<<
We are getting a tijuana g, mary jane, had too much, market deuce snoozilator reading on the McBigalow, hamburgulator no fryzolator.
we been burgolating sideways for a few weeks now, and there no telling when this thing will break out of the range, but I blew out my longs, held for a week at a small loss today, that up and down churing over the last week gave me a duece dizzolator reading.
both the McBigalowBig indicator and the McBigalowOTC indicator have had a couple of minor change readings in a row, now the ultimate set-up for a good direction move would for the markets to trade in a narrow range for the rest of the week on low holiday volume and then sssplode after the holiday on volume of soize, but i can't predict the future, so a possible big move is coming one way or the other within the next 1-5 trading sessions.
a move in the vix to the lower band has been the start of a correction lately, the rally in the markets from the recent pole down low last week, looks like a bear flag to me.
But I have no doubt he would make a fine President of Austria. LOL.<<<<
-lol-, that shoots down my grande ronald reagan - the terminator historic analogy -lol-, it fit so good -g-, i guess i'm right up there with robert prechter in those wild fantasy guesses about the future -g-
as an aside, this weekend, i was approached by a couple of kids with a recall Grey Davis petition, they commented that they would have had it easier if they had a draft Arnold petition because so many had requested it -g-
Poor Martha. She's getting the shaft. The full weight of three or more law enforcement agencies on her for what? A paltry $45K. Good grief!<<<<
yes this is obnoxious, considering that there have been a minimal # of high profile cases against other market charlatans that have bilked the public out of billions, is ley or ebbers in jail now?
For Arnold to be President, he'll have to rewrite his birth certificate<<<<
that may be a hindrance with todays books, but laws and restrictions can be broken.
since the lion share of Americans are immigrants or descendents of immigrants, birth certificates seem less relevant - was George Washington born on American soil?, i don't think so,
America is a state of mind, not a state of birthplace.
I probably attended a party in Tujunga in the late 60's or sometime in the 70's and I did inhale, but i will only admit to that as a fictitious movie character, i want to keep it perfectly clear, that i am (anon) in there for Arnold's running mate in 2014 -g-
. I think we'll see the next great 18-year bull run start in 2014. <<<<
talking about history repeating itself, Arnold should be about Ronald Reagan's age during his first election bid about then, If he runs for governor of California in the next election, he's a shoe-in imo, i'll vote for him being the silly californian i am, i aaaamm =g=
Terminator 3, is hasta la vista to movies babee, arnold is now setting his sights on the presidency of the united states, and this guy never fails.
thats my wild ass prediction, for the night.
That's the opinion of a fictitious movie character >>>
Followed your lead from yesterday and nibbled long at the close.<<<<<
that could be dangerous, so far it worked out -g-
the horses i bought near the close on monday and added some on tuesday have underperformed so far, let's hope for some good eom and holiday bullish action
one of my favorite chart gigolo's on ST is showing a return to a reasonable pivot on the $sox
I used to keep book on the stars<<<<<
9/5/00, Abby predicted the Dow would close the year at 12600<<<<
ya, major ouch, but you know that dear abby was sheer genius up until almost that exact date ~g~, and had more power over the world of finance than even 'Bruce Almighty' ~g~
and throw in the other American Idols. Rukeyeser, Battaglia, Gates, Dell, Chambers, Ley, Ebbers, Martha, Blodgett, Meeker, etc.
I used Galbraith's quote about the late 20's a lot back then, "When captains of industry were more important than Presidents..."
I'm surprised you didn't deduce it's "Kramer vs, Kramer."<<<
-lol-
no I'm quite sure Kramer on Seifeld and Kramer on WS are one in the same, it's just some back lot make=up and a little CGI thrown in for good measure -gg-
wooooaaaa!
It's all building a case for a great contrary move, but I think we have a six-week cushion.>>>>
we could have a sideways churning range for several weeks, to absorb the upside momentum,
i think that we had an exhaustion gap on that friday about two weeks ago and now we are in the formation of a distribution top, if we get a rally off this support area, that's a big if, i think that will be an opportunity to go short or go to cash.
that's the opinion of a fictious movie character, and may or may not be as good 10 figure wall st. consultant.
Now which Kramer were you following was that the one on Seinfeld -ggg-