I sold my last 20% Stake in the S fund last Thursday so I am 100% G now. I caught about 65% of that upside move as I was selling into it in stages.

Based on what I'm hearing from several pros, I am not inclined to get too froggy on buying any dips just yet. Maybe by the end of this week. We'll see.

Last week, I said that while we were seeing some Bullishness, it wasn't universal, which was good news for the intermediate-term. Near term, we were really overdone and in need of a pullback. We advised that it was not a lay up to bet on a pullback, however. I was looking for a pullback to be bought, and then afterward a decline. Frankly, we thought that we'd see weakness this week, not Friday, but we were pretty close. Friday did a lot of short-term damage. Momentum and our options indicators are Bearish and we're seeing no worry anywhere. Of course, intermediate-term, all the trend and breadth indicators are still positive. Here's what our experience tells us: After a move such as we've had, there are a ton of folks who are confidently primed to buy the pullback. Almost inevitably, they buy too soon and the pullback is more violent and steep than they are prepared for. As we look at the sentiment, that's pretty much what we're seeing too. We do not think that the market will be down on the week (though it can be) but we do think that there's going to be some pain early. Day traders can short bounces. Our call for the week is for sharply lower prices Monday and at least into if not through Tuesday, with bounce probably starting late Tuesday and into Wednesday, and then a pullback that takes the market lower on Thursday and into Friday.

I haven't had much in the way of comments to post this week as my daily service is taking a vacation. What little I do know is that he thinks this market is fairly safe. That was before today, but I doubt one day's trading action will change that general expectation.

Last week, I said that while things were still a bit iffy, the FL/FS was flashing a Buy, the OEX $-weighted was flashing a Buy, the weekly surveys were showing a lot of Bears amongst "Amateur" traders, and even better, the first of the month was upon us, with it's generally higher bias and this is augmented by a better than 80% statistical likelihood of higher prices on Friday. We figured that they'd be front running the statistical upside bias. Well, they bought ahead of the 1st as expected, and then they just kept buying. If we had any doubts about the bottom (which we called), they were dispelled this week. This week, while we are seeing some Bullishness, it's not universal. Folks aren't all excited. That's good news for the intermediate-term. The technicals support higher prices over the intermediate-term. Near term, we're really overdone and in need of a pullback. It's not a lay up to bet on a pullback, though. The overnight news will give us a lot to work with, I think. If the news is good, we can probably rally. That rally can probably be faded, but we'll likely be bought once again. Similarly, if the news is bad, the market can fall but the first drop will likely be bought. Our call for the week is for higher prices early on Tuesday, with a pullback that takes the market lower on Wednesday and then chops higher Thursday and Friday.

I know you mean Tuesday (Monday's a holiday). The bears were given absolutely no quarter this past week. None. I believe this was the biggest weekly advance in 2 years. My sentinels are going to look incredibly bullish after today, and they were already stretched to the upside.

I'm thinking we're higher for the week next week too, although we may very well get a short bout of selling pressure somewhere in there. July could still have a downside surprise for us though. We've got the whole month in front of us yet. I had thought we'd test the June lows, but that's not likely now. I'll have to see where this rally takes us to get a better idea of a downside target.

No, you used an IFT on 30Jun, which doesn't count for July. So I believe you've got one left for this month.

If you caught all five days, you're doing great! I've noticed that while sentiment on TSP Talk is much more bullish this week than last, the IFT activity appears to be leaning heavily to the selling side.

I was all in for Monday and Tuesday (S fund), moved 20% to G at Tuesday's close, took another 20% to G on Wednesday, and moved another 40% to G yesterday. So I still have a 20% S fund allocation. I'll be holding that into next week.

While I'm leaning bearish, there's certainly a good chance this thing keeps going into next week. But, I'm not betting heavily on it. I'm content to look for another reentry when the next down wave gets going (from whatever level that may be).

Last time, I said that the Options Oscillator was flashing a solid Buy and that obviously, it was a winner--we publish this to Premium subs in an evening update, for those who trade GLOBEX. One thing that I was concerned about was the ton of partially long Bulls in the message board polls. Yesterday, it had zero effect. Today? Well maybe. They do love to shake the weak-handed Bulls loose. Today there's statistically an 84% chance of higher prices. The thing is, every programmer with $30 can read Stock Traders Almanac. I'm pretty sure that this strength for the first has been fully discounted. We'll likely be up, but wouldn't it be cute to trap some late-comers and trade the market down? Big picture, this market is just about fully confirmed on the Bullish side, though we're overdone. I'm thinking that early weakness can be bought but early strength can be faded.

My system is an intermediate term system, but it has been whipsawed badly over the past two years on strong up and down moves. I don't like getting signals after the market has already moved several percentage points in one direction, but that's been the nature of this market on numerous occasions. It's also been a winning strategy to fade it on most occasions.

And until the pile in and pile out mentality of this market runs its course, it'll continue to be a fade imo.

But I've also got several premium services I monitor, and two of them are flashing warnings. One is embracing this move and yet another is cautiously bullish, but distrustful of this action. But then, they can move in and out of the market at will without the 2 IFT restriction. My moves are based on longer term expectations. And my latest move has given me about a 4% gain, and I'm okay with that.

Last time, I said that the 2X Sell ought to give us some weakness today but I was not going to bet on it lasting. It didn't. The market is still not out of the woods but it's getting closer. This morning we've got no big changes from the major polls but the Options Oscillator is flashing a solid Buy. Obviously, that's a winner. The FL/FS 2X Sell is looking like a loser unless the market turns down sharply immediately. One thing that is interesting here is that there are ton of partially long Bulls in the message board polls. They love to shake the weak-handed Bulls loose. I'd be on the look out for that. I'm expecting chop here, despite the early strength. One has to think that the strength for the first is fully discounted. Big picture, I'm pretty Bullish IT, but short-term, we have to be a bit Bearish.

I took another 20% out of S and into G this morning. That now puts me at 40/60 GS.

Last time, I said that we were looking at a 2X Sell but that the options Oscillator was flashing a Buy on the heels of a Sell. These two sets of readings were a prescription for volatility but what we saw mostly was rally. Today, however, I think we get that volatility. I suspect that the powers that be are nearly done front running the statistical strength. The 2X Sell ought to get us some weakness today but I'm not going to bet on it lasting. While the market is not out of the woods yet, we have an unconfirmed turn with all manner of positive divergences at the low. I suspect that we'll trade down then try for some higher prices and then see some correction next week.

The Seven Sentinels issued a confirmed buy signal at the close yesterday. Check my blog for details.

FYI, I transfered 20% into the G fund today, but still have an 80% allocation to the S fund. We appear to be turning momentum up, but this is pre-holiday trading and the action may not last, so I reduced risk a bit just in case we get a surprise reversal.

Last time, I said that the FL/FS was flashing a Buy on the heels of a ST Sell. We got a rally, but now we're looking at a 2X Sell. The options Oscillator, on the other hand is flashing a Buy on the heels of a Sell. These two sets of readings are a prescription for volatility. That said, the first of the month is upon us, and there's a generally higher bias this week. As we said before, in recent months, the powers that be have been front running statistical strength. That suggests to me that they take it about where they want to by the close on Wednesday. Things are looking a bit better, but the market is not out of the woods yet. We still need to be careful. The sentiment suggests that we could see significant volatility.

Last week, I said that the ST Buys from NAAIM have generally been gold and in fact it brought us a good deal of strength. Alas, it did not hold. The overall sentiment is generally constructive going forward, but near term, things are still a bit iffy. We've got an Options Oscillator ST Sell on the heels of a still-valid ST Buy. The FL/FS is flashing a Buy on the heels of a ST Sell. The OEX $-weighted is flashing a Buy, but we have a ton of partially long Bulls in the message board polls. Now the good news is that the weekly surveys show a lot of Bears amongst "Amateur" traders, and otherwise the results imply a turn of some sort next week. Even better, the first of the month is upon us, with it's generally higher bias and this is augmented by a better than 80% statistical likelihood of higher prices on Friday. In recent months, the powers that be have been front running statistical strength. This market is not out of the woods yet, but our read is that we bottom and rally. Our call for the week is for lower prices early on Monday, with a rally that takes the market higher on Tuesday and Wednesday and then chops Thursday and Friday.

You're welcome folks. :o)

Glad you all find it useful.

For anyone who is relatively new to following this board I would like to take a moment to point out that the daily comments are not my own. They come from a professional day trader who understands markets very well. What that means is that these comments are meant primarily for short term traders, but for those of us in TSP they can still be useful as they give us a sense of the short term landscape. In today's comments we are being told that next week appears to be very bullish given end of quarter window dressing and a historically bullish July 1st. Chances are next Friday will be front-run by market participants, so I'm holding 100% S fund for now.

I have my own blog on TSPTalk where I post daily signals and try to provide some context to what those signals are telling me. That link is in the ibox.

I also have access to several premium services that I use to keep me up-to-date on what's going on in the market from the very short term to a much longer term, so my analysis is somewhat of a blend of various perspectives. But overall, the Seven Sentinels that I post in my blog is my main tool. Everything else helps me develop context to go with it.

Last time, I said that I thought that the boyz would start buying the market up pretty soon, so we should pick our spot. I was worried about so many AAII Bulls, but the FL/FS Buy offset that. Interestingly, all played out. The FL/FS is now flashing a strong sell, but it's important to remember that this crew tends to be right at turns. By "tends" I mean, they're always leaning the right way at non-trivial tops and bottoms. We also have an Options Oscillator Buy and statistically next Friday is very, very Bullish. That's going to be front run, barring major disaster. Today may be tricky, as we've got mixed signals, but the bigger picture still looks Bullish.

In this volatility, one has to try and look past the very short term. We just bounced off the S&P 500s 200 dma yesterday for the 2nd time in a week. That's encouraging. Sentiment is also very bearish on TSPTalk with about 59% bears. That's also good news, although bearish sentiment alone hasn't been getting it done.

I am still 100% S and looking for a target range in the S&P 500 of 1315 to 1330. I'll begin selling rallies at the lower end of that range. I'm thinking we could get there next week, but this market has a mind of its own (imagine that).

Last time, I said that I was open to some selling, but that very shortly, the powers that be were going to start discounting the statistical strength of the 1st. We were looking to buy weakness but it came late. We're getting more today and frankly, I'm inclined to look hard at it. The Daily MACD crossed up giving a "Best Fade" Sell and that's playing out now. I think that the boyz start buying this market up pretty soon, so pick your spot. The problem for this market is that AAII shows a lot of fresh Bullishness and the options aren't showing much concern either. The good news is that we have a FL/FS Buy. That may play out today later, or it may play out over the next couple days. There's not much time, however and statistically, next Friday is very, very Bullish.

I'm on travel again this week, so posts are not timely. Here's yesterday's comments:

Last time, I said that while we had a ST Sell from the WSS Options Oscillator, I was thinking that one ought to wait to take that trade. We thought that a decline might not come except from substantially higher. These rallies often blow right through logical resistance levels and this one did as well. One can see the wisdom of that call. I'm open to some selling today, but very shortly, the powers that be are going to start discounting the statistical strength of the 1st. Given that the trend is turning up, and all the bottom spotters support, we ought to use any weakness today to buy. The Daily MACD crossed up giving a "Best Fade" Sell.

That's how it's been. Risk off, risk on. The big money mostly moves en mass nowadays. I've had to do a lot more interpreting of my charts than I used to because of it.

Last time, I said that our best trend indicator remained negative as did the P/C:SPX ratio but that other sentiment suggested higher prices. I figured that we should look for some more multi-swing action which and then more persistent strength. I was looking for another anemic rally attempt on Monday that failed, then up again on Today, down on Wednesday. Well, we got a modest rally yesterday but I don't think we can call it anemic nor failed. It was decent. Today, we have a ST Sell from the WSS Options Oscillator, but I'm thinking that one ought to be patient with that one. A decline may come from substantially higher. It's early in the rally and things have just started. The rallies often blow right through logical resistance levels. Our trend has not turned up, but the SPX:P/C ratio has flashed a pretty reliable Buy signal. So, be patient putting shorts on and buy the dips in here.

My seven sentinels issued an unconfirmed buy signal today, but it's weak as the main signal (BPCOMPQ) is leaning negative even though it's technically in a buy status. NAHL and NYHL are also at lows, but NAMO and NYMO are moving higher. My read here is that we're setting up for a big upside move even though I'm well away from a confirmed buy signal. My charts are posted in my blog at TSPTalk (follow the link in the IBOX). If we get that big move up, it may not last long though. We could be a few weeks away yet from another "official" intermediate term buy signal from my system. But that remains to be seen.

I'm glad to hear it. I'm still long 100% S here. FOMC announcement is Wednesday. That could be a market mover this time around.

If we can rally this week, I'll probably be selling into it. I doubt we've seen the lows for the intermediate term just yet.

Last week, I said that despite options expiration (or perhaps because of it) we should still be very careful, though were we to get some panic going, we would be looking for a really nice, sharp rally. We got a couple rallies but we've not officially turned anything up. We need that. Our best trend indicator remains negative as does the P/C:SPX ratio. We did get a ST Buy from NAAIM this week and those have generally been gold. We're also just a spit away from an IT Buy. The overall sentiment is generally constructive going forward, but near term, things are still a bit iffy. I'm inclined to look for some more multiswing action. This tends to give rallies a bit more umph as it tends to reward Bears who hold shorts that are moving against them, and it rewards Bulls who ignore their Buy signals as they keep getting second, third, or fourth chances. I favor higher prices but I'm under no illusions regarding the risk over the next several days. My low confidence call for the week is for another anemic rally attempt on Monday that fails, up again on Tuesday, down on Wednesday and up Thursday into week's end. A lot can change during the week, however. Remain very flexible.

I'm down about 1.5% since I entered the S fund, but I agree with you about the possibility of a short term rally looking likely very soon.

Last time, I said that while we turned the short-term trends back down (bad), we did have a buy from the Options Oscillator. We said that "chances are, they'll take it up" but we didn't know if they would hold it. Because the Treasury notes were very strong, I suspected a cousin of QE2 was being deployed and between that and the sentiment, I was Bullish. That was the right call, I think. The trade yesterday was quite Bullish. Multi-swing action off support is often a marker for a turn. Better yet, the volume came in late, on strength, that held. Smart money buys late in the day. Better yet, we saw a HUGE drop in Bullish exposure at NAAIM. We very nearly got an IT Buy (and I might guess it was close enough), and it did trigger a ST Buy regardless (as we advised you via email yesterday). Momentum also turned back up at the close. I think that a decent low is in. Is it the low? Who knows or cares? There's a rally ahead of us. We'll worry about later, later.

Last time, I said that while we had a ST Sell from the Options Oscillator, the P/C:SPX ratio was flashing an IT Buy, which we were favoring, since momentum had clearly turned up from an oversold condition, too. We were concerned by the gap down, but we figured that if this was a Bull market, the market ought to find its feet and rally. Well, it didn't. Now, I don't want to call this a Bear Market, but the thought does beg to be ruminated upon. We turned the short-term trends back down and that's bad. On the other hand, we have a buy from the Options Oscillator. Things are made more complex by the fact that this is options expiration. The decline yesterday could be part of a master play by the options boyz. Chances are, they'll take it up today. Will they hold it? That's anyone's guess. If you think that this market is manipulated, you have to bet they'll hold it. If you don't, you'll be open to another panic shot down, because a lot of the sentiment is some way from showing the panic of a good low. Treasury notes are very strong. I suspect a cousin of QE2 is being deployed.

Last time, I said that this week was options expiration so if we were to get a turn, we could get some fun action. I also advised that if we didn't turn it, things could get very ugly. This morning, it looks like the fix is in. The FL/FS Buy is in force and that ought to help the rally, too. I was looking for a rally that faded yesterday, and that was a hit, but I was looking for a hard decline today. So far, it looks like I'm wrong. The set-up for a good low is definitely here. The 10-day P/C's are all up at levels we haven't seen in some time--in some cases years. The OBSG is down in Buy territory, too. There are lots of shorts on the Naz as well. If we're in a real Bear market, that's not good enough for a low. If this is just a correction, it is. The key, I think, will be for the market to hold strength today. If it does, chances are, we'll do OK, though there's still a decent chance for a last bit of volatility.

Thanks frenchee. My brother's an Architect. I'll have to ask him what he thinks when I get the chance.

Last week, I said that our best trend indicator was Bearish, cumulative breadth is negative as was A/D Volume, momentum was and is negative (though it is close to a buy) and while all key trend lines were broken, we were still in a Bull market. Sentiment had improved enough for a bounce, but we were still looking to see more persistent Bearishness before looking for a good low. That was a correct call, and while we were looking for a bounce and more weakness, we were still surprised by the depth and persistence of the weakness. This market is pretty sick and we didn't see many signs of panic on Friday. That would have helped. This week is options expiration so if we do get a turn, we could get some fun action. The thing is, if we DON'T turn it, things could get very ugly as the options guys decide to buy the puts and drive premium up through persistent selling. Fortunately, the latter is unlikely, though we should still be very careful this week. If we can get some panic going, I'll be looking for a really nice, sharp rally. The FL/FS Buy ought to help, too. My call for the week is for an anemic rally attempt on Monday that fails, hard down on Tuesday, a sharp rally on Wednesday into Thursday and chop higher into week's end. This is not a "cod lock" however. Be very flexible and watch for multi-swing action, or a big spike in the VIX. If we get that, the turn ought to launch a nice rally.

Last time, I said that there was support for the market but there were also some signs of bottom-picking, and I didn't think it was a very good sign with so little hedging going on. Also, ISEE actually took a big jump, which triggered a ST Sell. We got the selling. Our prediction was for some wild swings that resolve higher. We got the wild swings, which are, incidentally, indicative of a bottoming action. We did not resolve higher, however. I think that we may today. This is helped by a large Bearish shift at AAII and another big shift at ISEE, triggering a short-term Buy. We still don't have a ton of uniformly pessimistic sentiment, but we're getting more. I'm guessing that we bounce today, but that we may take another shot down next week for a day or two. We're finally beginning to set up a good Buy signal. Watch for our new "Options Oscillator" chart next time.

I'm on travel this week, so posting may not be timely for me. My regular email traffic will be affected too.

Last time, I said that the big Bearish sentiment shifts were very likely to bring a reaction, though I was not sure that we wouldn't trade lower still. I said that a bounce was a pretty high probability and we got it. We also said not to marry long positions, as we might only test the break down--this was most apt. So, now what? We have got some funky sentiment. There's support as noted, but there are also some signs of bottom-picking. That's not unheard of, but I don't think it's a very good sign with so little hedging going on. ISEE actually took a big jump, triggering a ST Sell (high probability of trading lower today or tomorrow). Of course, the FL/FS Buy is in force and about out of time. The market is also very oversold. Today is Weird Wolly Wednesday and I have to predict some wild swings that resolve higher.

I sold F fund today and went all in to the S fund. Would have preferred hedging, but with only 2 IFTs I wanted room to make one more move to the F just in case.

Last week, I said that while we did manage to get some more Bears, most notably a ST Buy from NAAIM last, but we didn't see so many Bears as we'd have liked to have any confidence of a good low. We knew that there was seasonal strength for Tuesday and Wednesday, but our best trend indicator was negative. We figured that they'd hold it for a bit then take it down on Thursday and Friday. It was even weaker than we'd thought. Here's the run down. Our best trend indicator never turned up. Cumulative breadth is negative as is A/D Volume. Momentum is negative. Trend lines are broken. We're still in a Bull market but the Intermediate-term trend is most assuredly Bearish. Sentiment has improved, especially the options sentiment and TSP, but we'd really like to see more persistent Bearishness, especially amongst advisors. Plus we'd like to see more hedging going on. This may be what we're in for soon, but as of now, it's premature to look for a good low, I think. A bounce, however is reasonable and likely. My call for the week is for a rally on Monday and Tuesday, a test on Wednesday into Thursday and then more rally for week's end.

I suspect the biggest issue right now is what the Fed is going to do post-QE2. The timing of that announcement will be key as well as the direction the market takes. A 10% correction is probably the max we'll see as the PTB still want prices elevated.