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Looks like an intra squad scrimmage.
Australia, where they can achieve mutually beneficial trade from the low cost producer. It’s already in the works. When was the last time Wilbur Ross visited Nebraska?
https://www.afr.com/companies/mining/matt-canavan-seeks-america-s-help-to-develop-rare-earths-resources-20191009-p52z31
Nothing about this is positive for NioCorp. In regards to niobium it is all about expansion at Niobec, a much lower cost producer. Not to mention a joint effort to maintain good relations with Brazil and maintain beneficial access to CBMM’s Nb. It’s about working together, identifying comparative trade advantages, and establishing mutually beneficial trade and access to these minerals. Niocorp desperately wants to be part of this, but the geology and associated costs simply provide no benefit to the US when we have strong relationships with our top allies.
This is all on the same page as Wilbur Ross’ multiple visits to Australia to define a mineral strategy with them as well.
I think that’s a three month futures contract. Spot price is a bit more relevant but it’s all trending well. I prefer the site below as it also shows current inventory levels which are getting really low.
It’s worth noting that every five cents over the 2.75 FS pricing equates to roughly $30MM in NPV. $2.80 is nothing to sneeze at and MIN appears to be entering production at an opportune time.
http://www.kitcometals.com/charts/copper_historical_large.html
You can also get data from the LME site but I think it’s only updated daily.
The writers have far more journalistic integrity than that. These aren’t opinion pieces. Here’s the journal star attributing the 2016 date straight to Niocorp:
https://journalstar.com/business/local/mining-company-plans-to-dump-saltwater-into-missouri-river/article_ca7d227d-887b-5582-9f00-7f5f618509c8.html
NioCorp officials previously said the company hoped to begin construction by the end of this year, but spokesman Jim Sims said Monday mid-2017 is looking more likely.
This is a good old article that addresses both issues you brought up. Interesting that you failed to mention that I was correct on my prediction of permitting issues on the pipeline.
On the topic of integrity and the pipeline, the other rarely discussed point worth mentioning is the time the state warned Honan that federal permitting would be difficult if not impossible and Honan came back with a plan to dump into the Little Nemaha instead, mere feet upstream of the Missouri. This was done solely to attempt to circumvent the permitting process and with complete disregard for the environmental issues with dumping brackish water into a fresh water river. The state saw through this and the plan didn’t advance.
No it couldn’t have. Do some DD on permitting. Do some DD on construction, start up, and production of a mine. Do some DD on the risk tolerance of an EPC firm. Hindsight is easy and it makes it clear that those were incredibly misleading statements. We can debate where they originated but it’s pretty obvious now that those comments were knowingly inaccurate.
You really think Nebraska’s NPR affiliate is pulling that quote out of thin air?
How about this one: could be operational by late 2016.
http://netnebraska.org/article/news/971924/elk-creek-niobium-mine-could-be-operational-late-2016
Honan has repeatedly made these misleading statements in documents to the state over permitting.
NPR is about as straight laced as it gets. They are not speculating on this. Rest assured every “forward looking” comment they make comes directly from Niocorp, including the “commercial terms have been agreed to for two years comment”. This team loves to hide behind media to maintain deniability in a court of a law. It’s all about pumping the price. It’s the same recipe they used for the multiple Molycorp public offerings. Rinse and repeat.
And it’s not just Net Nebraska. Go back and read the articles from the Lincoln Journal Star. It’s the same song.
Lol. Talk to the hand. Haven’t heard that one since junior high.
The numbers are three months old and the most recent data from the company. I can’t do any better than that. We’ll know more around the first week of February.
Everything I’ve posted this evening is documented fact straight from the NioCorp regulatory findings. I assumed you had read the most recent reports given all the DD you’ve done. Reading quarterlies barely even scrape the surface of proper DD.
Recognizing the many bot articles in the penny stock segment is not any more difficult than recognizing a Nigerian prince from a scam.
I’m sure your prince will come.
https://stockinvest.us/technical-analysis/NIOBF
There’s your source. It’s a bot trying to get you to pay for a bot written report. The bot has done zero DD on the company and relies on an algorithm that has zero accuracy whatsoever when evaluating a penny stock owned entirely by retail investors.
Great quote from another bot written article.
The most recent filing was 9/30/19, which was Q1 of the 2020 fiscal year for Niocorp. All the data I reported is directly from that report and the 10k dated 6/30/19. Based on previous history the Q2 2020 quarterly report will most likely be filed on 2/8/20 for records through 12/31/19.
This is elementary level accounting. The company incurred expenses over $1MM for the three months ending on 9/30/19, which is slightly above but more or less in line with the $320k/month reported in the annual filing. We will have to wait a month for the most recent data.
1.3 is correct as of 9/30/19, but there was no cutting back. Look at the increase in accounts payable and decrease in cash. Cash decreased by ~$300k, accounts payable increased by over $1MM, and as you pointed out $200k was taken from the credit line and moved to a current liability.
Operating expenses per the quarterly for the three months ending 9/30/19 align with the balance sheet at $1,005,000. The 10k reported a $320k per month burn rate so Q1 2020 was just a shade above this.
Extrapolate that through the end of the 2019 calendar year and one can only assume the current MS credit line is about dry. There is a possibility some “in the money” warrants have been exercised over this period but from a pure accounting standpoint the treasury is most likely dry at this point.
One has to wonder if the Bloomberg reporter at the annual meeting had some influence on this article.
This is national press from arguably the most credible source to follow NioCorp.
“A long shot niobium project...” Bloomberg’s words, not mine.
To all, do your DD. Then again Bloomberg, Bologna (I’ll give you that one. Poor guy with that name), and Baltz are all probably just more “disgruntled Molycorp investors”.
Interesting article. ;)
Lol. Call me wrong wrong wrong and then come correct yourself. Ask yourself which Jim still has credibility in the industry. It’s not the genius at spin.
I’ll go back to my favorite library and check you for clarity. I honestly don’t even remember that passage. Either it was insignificant or I was too busy socializing with the poor and homeless to remember it.....
No. There’s probably a few thousand Jim Kennedy’s in North America. It seems you’ve read Amazon reviews instead of the book. The King of Thorium (another experts words, not mine) has a pretty good reputation with those paying attention.
Fair enough. That’s a pretty inaccurate review IMO but there’s always two sides to a story. As far as Niocorp goes, the question investors should be asking is “which Jim has credibility in this industry?” I have it from other neutral parties it’s not Sims.
Kennedy did quite well after that suit.
https://www.bizjournals.com/stlouis/news/2018/02/06/kennedy-wins-5-million-judgment-in-case-tied-to.html
Libraries are a wonderful public resource. If I bought every book I read I probably would be broke.
Yes they are. A few times. There’s also quite a bit on the story of Molycorp/Mountain Pass and how the fake story they created about it only furthered the US dependence on rare earths. I don’t have the book. I borrowed it from the library. I don’t remember exact quotes but “genius at spin” is one of them. The author was questioning the morality of Molycorp and Sims in PR statements and finished by saying something along the lines of “you may question the morality of it, but Sims is a professional genius at spin.” I’ll see if I can find it later. There are other references to the book on the ‘net.
Sims and Smith already have that distinguished privilege in Victoria Bruce’s book. There’s lots of information on the fraud of mountain pass in that book, as well as an interesting anecdote on the “genius at spin” himself.
https://www.amazon.com/Sellout-Washington-Americas-Technological-Fight-ebook/dp/B06WVPDF5N
How many other companies have you invested in?
As far as facts I quickly proved that one of your key facts was blatantly incorrect.
Your claim was that this is material information because the mine could not be developed if not approved. It was known by the agenda that this decision would be made at this meeting. The entire point of a trading halt for pending news is to give all investors the opportunity to digest the news. If you mean to say that the company needed to wait until after the commissioners vote to request the halt (or the IIROC whatever it is you think) then it seems to suggest you think it appropriate that multiple (non-inside) investors gain “material information” at this small public meeting and have an hour or so to trade prior to the broader investing community. That would be a direct contradiction to the purpose of a halt. Hence, don’t you think it more reasonable that a halt would have come prior to the meeting?
This is all of course dependent on whether or not the halt was requested by the company or not. I think it was. Potentially because it was posted here. Potentially as an attempt to draw attention to the company. If this was solely done by the IIROC, that would be a sure signal that regulators are watching this company extraordinarily closely.
It’s literally question one on the iiroc trading halt FAQ.
Halts are issued by IIROC for regulatory reasons or at the request of the involved company.
https://www.iiroc.ca/industry/marketmonitoringanalysis/Pages/Trading-Halts-Timely-Disclosure.aspx#1
If you think IIROC did this on their own I would be very concerned. Regulators following your every move under such a watchful eye is probably not a good sign. As I said though, I think Putz has it right on this one.
Niocorp obviously knew of the meeting given Honan’s attendance. Niocorp requested the trade halt, as would be typical in a pending PR situation where outsiders potentially came upon “material information”.
These are facts. My question is, since Niocorp was fully aware that “material information” was bound to be disclosed at this meeting (positive or negative), why did they wait until after the meeting to request the trade halt? Proper protocol would have been to request the halt upon the start of the meeting.
I actually agree with Putzs theory in this case. When Sims isn’t busy twiddling his thumbs or serving his other companies he peruses this board. He may have seen Antlers post and they quickly put in the halt request. This should make one wonder why they weren’t on top of the “material information” to begin with. I think they found an opportune time to release fluff news and draw attention to themselves.
All of this ignores the obvious that the permit was more or less a request for clarification on county zoning regulations. Did anyone really think the commissioners would say they would would rather have a corn field than a “super alloys” facility?
In summary, FLUFF.
Pebble Mine does not currently have any effect on global copper macroeconomics. Therefore, it has no effect on a small copper mine in Arizona.
QED.
It’s getting more and more difficult to find a bearish 2020 outlook for copper. Goldman Sachs is predicting an average of 3.18/lb usd.
The current US political administration is dependent on a robust economy heading into an election year. The best way for then to achieve that is to ease trade tensions with China, which would obviously be very bullish for copper.
Credible sources are suggesting it will test all time highs over $4 on a short term basis.
Hope you’re right on a $5 CAD buyout, but I’ve got to admit I will likely be taking profit well before that point!
Pebble Mine had nothing to do with the race to permit! Or today’s rise in share price.
It wasn’t even a permit. It was final approval that the last wells were completed per regulations. It was purportedly delayed because the perpetually understaffed EPA was further short handed while a local employee was out on personal leave.
I’m more surprised than anyone on today’s price movement. It was 100% expected news as most of the wells had already been approved. The real price movement will happen over the next 12 months as production ramps up an Dr. Cu moves north.
Just a quick reminder of where this project stands:
1. Filed an insignificant application with the county and unnecessarily spent a few grand on a press release to promote the application.
2. Honan is on record with the air quality permit. He attests that construction will begin 1/1/20. He has indicated to the state that this is truthful to the best of his knowledge. 13 days to go for ground breaking. I hope the state takes this seriously.
3. Financing - the company has zero institutional investment. The few industry experts following the company give zero chance that the company achieves financing. Most industry experts disregarded Niocorp years ago. Outside of insiders, nearly all shares are held by retail investors. Over half of the US shares are held by Nebraskan retail investors.
4. The company is potentially in violation of TSX continuous listing requirements for working capital. No reputable company claims that $43k in cash with over $4MM in accounts payable is a positive sign.
Copper held 2.80. Its mostly symbolic in regards to the long term prospects but I think it would be a cool little factoid if copper is above the FS projections when ramp up officially begins.
Far more likely that someone with the lower cost warrants saw an easy opportunity to make a profit. The Dec. 2020 warrants can be exercised at just .54 CAD. I don’t think those ones are owned by Lind. Probably a retailer that long since checked out of this investment and saw an easy opportunity to exercise their warrants and dump the shares for a quick profit. Probably a pretty intelligent individual that realized the recent run up is based on fluff and .80 CAD may not happen again.
The TSX chart shows some accumulation today.
How about the time that Honan lied to public officials? It’s in the public document on the DEQ site dated 12/13/18. Honan claimed Niocorp was past the FS stage in that document. As we know now, they were actually right in the middle of FS3 and preparing to file results that would make your grandmother blush.
Almost brings back memories of the pipeline fiasco. There’s lots more info in the public documents that indicate Niocorp knew they would never get approval to discharge into the Missouri River so they chose deception as the best path forward. SRK finally stood up to it so they went after the much more easily manipulated Nordmin instead.
This is a good post. Most of us are not hear to trade, we are here to invest. NB certainly presented a nice trading opportunity this past fall. I definitely could have timed my initial CLQ purchase better, but my average entry is at a price I’m happy with. CLQ is poised for a good trade now. Point is that as an investor I’m looking for a junior miner that will go into production. CLQ has a high likelihood of making it there. NB isn’t going to get there by swindling retailers so they are dependent on government funds. Ironically the Aussie miners have more US government interest than Niocorp. NB has less than a 1% chance of achieving financing for Elk Creek. CLQ (sunrise) is likely over 75%. Not bad odds at these prices.
Can you source that?
Another worthy quote:
Many prices are thrown around in the space to justify economics but in discussion with some with knowledge say that broad acceptance will require an oxide price in the range of $1,200-1,500 per kilogram.
That’s from Alastair.
https://investorintel.com/sectors/technology-metals/technology-metals-intel/scandium-the-new-rare-earth/
Where is Matheson’s report? His projections are clearly the outlier. I’d love to read his works but unfortunately they are nowhere to be found.
Kaiser is world renowned for his scandium expertise. Matheson not so much.
While 99.9 percent scandium oxide is needed for electrical applications, that isn’t necessary for alloy applications.
That’s quite the quote from your article which supports everything the other potential Sc producers have claimed. That pretty much leaves Bloom as the only potential customer for specialty chemical type pricing, which even NB has admitted is not an industry ready to take up scandium in the levels needed for Niocorp to be successful.
Impossible. If he was in possession of any material news he would not have been allowed to make last weeks open market purchase, regardless of any sort of NDA.
Research Molycorp. Went to $70 something on deception. I’m not in the business of predicting price movements on speculation. I’m into the fundamentals that lead straight to zero for this company, just like Moly. When is mostly dependent on how long MS wants to keep it afloat and/or how long they can swindle retail investors.