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If an end to NWS is price in, then look out cos the NWS is not stopping -- just a raise in cap -- once it reaches that capital the skimming commences, presumably to fund affordable housing
Well, if the senior pref still exists, and warrants too, PLUS potential JPS conversion, the common is still Zimbabwean currency, so... it will track
Dude, where are the triple trains? It is up a nickel (for now)
Sincerely GL, gonna need it next two weeks
lol, be careful with commons since it will track the JPS... but I defer to experienced traders
lol, just tracking the situation - the exit I pointed to for JPS was a good one to grab. No doubt that is why someone placed the story?
Tomorrow, maybe?, we see what the "something" is -- *just* a raise in retained capital cap? wow... smart money dropping it today
I was busy all morning with my GLNG, so I am sorry I could not post more - I did warn early last week
Commons will follow.. no bueno
JPS bloodbath begins...
No substantive SPSA coming it appears -- and the run for the exists begins
Commons will follow, right?
GL all longs
Get your cash ready...
I take "broad strokes" to mean outlining plans and options, rather than an SPSA amendment getting done
I am still not sure Mnuchin will be remaining as the Secretary of Treasury
But we shall see, another day gone. This gets done this week, or not at all
Washington Post ran a story that Mnuchin discussed 25th amendment -- WH will have seen that. Only one result, the chop...
FNMAS ended back where it started, JPS buyers not buying there is anything happening...
I see no ships...
This is all Gasparino post?
We see if Mnuchin lasts the week...
Very serious
This pretty much says no SPSA amendment, so no admin action...
Someone trying to get a good price to exit their positions?
Simply to spite Mnuchin?
I think they nixed action a year ago tbh
Because of Who Trump is... Mnuchin will get his...
As I understand it, David J Urban was an inside source at ACG Analytics that might have had some insight into administration plans
But the wheels have fallen off what was already an anarchic, clique ridden, administration. I would be highly surprised if Mr Urban or anyone else at ACG analytics has any good information -- the primary actor here is not predictable (and I do not mean Mnuchin...)
Yeah, I agree about a long road, hence it has to be a pretty good price... especially given the opportunity costs in this market
Thank you for the comments and for your blog
"This should not be considered midnight action as it's been well telegraphed for years - White House Memo, Treasury Housing Reform Plan, etc."
It has been so telegraphed that no one still knows whether it will happen
Furthermore, "payoffs to political contributors" and "bailouts for hedgefunds" are not the kind of actions you do at the midnight hour if you have any hope to preserve your reputation -- the knives are already out for anyone in the Trump administration so calling more incoming fire down on oneself? I think not
"*$FNMAS ~$5 / ~20% of par if action is closer to a Letter Agreement. Maybe as low ~15%, but that was pre-Trump and there are 3 live cases (SCOTUS, Court of Claims, D.C. Circuit)*"
As you know, FNMAS is $6.6 already and less liquid issue are already at 20% par. There was really one big way for this trade to payoff with some certainty in a reasonable timeframe and that was administrative action. Once that goes down, there are a lot of folks and not many exits when the "FIRE!" cry goes up next week...
The other legal cases now really are a version of DOMBEY AND SONS -- ffs Lamberth is scheduling 2024? And why believe you see that? Judge Sweeney was a sunbeam of integrity (if nonetheless still glacial) and she has been moved off the case (!) and who knows what this new person's views are? Terrifying. So one is gambling on the Federal Judges on SCOTUS... I have gambled a few times on Federal Judges and FnF now, the stink has never completely gone away.
So, yes, I will look out for 10% of par next week...
"there's no difference between 11/25, 12/18 and 1/15 with regard to any PSPA amendment"
Oh my. Really?
This is a political action and so the political situation matters, not least as to whether the administration is willing, or able, to pursue a substantive action
Doing an SPSA amendment in the last week -- and hence at the midnight hour -- was *always* a VERY bad look. Now it simply does not appear politically feasible at all and Mnuchin is no fool
And that is even without thinking about the Trump-Mnuchin dynamic. The Little-Lost-Boy running FHFA has been leaking to the press like a mad thing that something will happen, but he does not matter. Treasury was always the question.
But we shall see, I am interested since I think I get a chance to buy some JPS at prices more appropriate to a gamble on a SCOTUS decision... 10% par?
You would need a psychiatrist to predict what will happen now...
"whatever is going to happen was decided weeks if not months ago" - well, this is what I took issue with before the election
There were clear signs that if Trump lost then the wheels would fall off this administration both functionally and politically -- so one should have been worried that nothing could be decided weeks or months ahead because one could not predict a functioning administration
...and here we are
I do not think this administration has any political capital to undertake major moves, especially those for economically and politically sensitive areas -- so I stand by the "cake being trampled by thousands of people in the Capital building". (Tho I doubt this administration was ever going to act in a substantive way...)
We shall see next week, but I think there is a better chance that by Friday Mnuchin will not be Secretary of the Treasury than there is that the SPSA has been amended
I may well also be buying JPS next week, I think this commons is too risky unless it goes under a $1
I think admin action is dead and so this really all comes down to SCOUS decision later in the spring -- but that is a crap-shoot like all legal rulings especially with Federal judges..
When high yield JPS issues get to 20% of par, then I will start thinking about buying. (The lower yielding and higher face value issues already hit 20 of par, FNMAS an FMCKI will hit it this week)
I will only be buying a gambling stake, since who knows what SCOTUS does - never forget the ruse in the AIG "victory"... The Federal judges allowed Hank Greenberg a "win" but he got nothing
lol, given the reaction at the WH, you think they would confirm the talks?
It is publicly reported that it was PENCE'S refusal to go along that stopped the process -- the paranoia in the WH is going to be turning this over and over... Going to have the usual ugly reaction imho
HoldenWalker on Twitter thinks action is coming, the "cake is baked", but that is deluded:
https://twitter.com/HoldenWalker99/status/1348023329144365063
First, the administration collapsed this week
Second, acting in the last week ALWAYS looks extremely bad, but especially when widely characterized as "hedgefund giveaway" and "rewarding donors"
But, third, there is now ZERO political capital for the administration -- seeking to do anything like this will be murdered in the present climate
And, fourth, the Trump-Mnuchin relationship that frayed over stimulus bill has not exploded with reported 25th amendment talk
...the cake is baked? lol Perhaps, but someone dropped that cake at the capital last week and then thousands of people walked all over it -- I heard the guy in the Viking hat ate cake and I was puzzled, now I understand...
Interestingly, Sweeney in the Court of Claims ruled NWS WAS within the powers of the conservator under HERA, like the ten or so other courts who have ruled on this -- only ONE court has ruled otherwise ie the enbanc ruling
No action Monday and you are going to see arterial red prices on all the FnF securities
And it is really hard to see how Mnuchin acts now he is on the enemies list at the WH
Pence is opposed to the GSE's very existence
A lot depends on whether you think Calabria has any clue what is going on in the administration... I don't
Yup, with Mnuchin now in the dog house, I think even the blind can read the writing on the wall...
Is that me, Trump or Mnuchin?
lol, I am just pointing out this Washington Post piece, amongst others:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/01/08/mnuching-25th-amendment/
You know who religiously reads the Times and Post?
Mr Fence (u here?), a song for Monday
Either NWS is gone or admin action is gone, either way this will be apposite:
I will wait for closer to $1
FFFacts, so what is your answer about why he is scheduling interviews? My answer he is a clown...
Yeah, I agree with that political estimation -- there is now zero political capital for the administration to spend, let alone do such a huge and controversial move... no admin action = lower incoming
Not sure it will be slow...
Everything has to be signed off by the President and he clearly baulker a while ago for whatever reason, Donald has left the building...
Jim Parrott is an ideologue whose ideology renders him an idiot and a danger -- not uncommon amongst economists that most dismal of "sciences". Let us hope Biden dumps Parrott -- absolutely anything would be better
Calabria is a dead man walking, Biden gets nothing for keeping him except another clueless ideologue gumming up the economy
Glad you are cheery since this was the charnel house again today, knocking 9% a day off the JPS and we have not really started the rout -- that comes when admin action is clearly tits up
Robert, I owned commons a few years ago when they hit $1 at Xmas, I sold for $3. Since then I have only traded in and out of JPS. I think common will get shredded IF there is a resolution by warrant activation and JPS conversion... But what do I know?
I don't think admin action is incoming and as that becomes clearer we will see a rush for the exits on FnF securities, since the Biden team is crowded with enemies -- Jim Parrott returns to the Federal government rather than the Federal prison term he deserves? Who would have guessed it -- maybe even Ed DeMarco might get the Federal janitorial job his talents are suited for?
lol, I would wait to add or buy JPS till Tuesday -- no admin action on/by Monday means we have a proper, baby and bathwater, selloff
I will wait to see where the prices go and may have a gamble
I am sorry for your loss on your stock holdings from the criminal take-over
I think there is no admin action incoming, the administration has now lost all political standing
Tuesday is a sell0ff on steroids