Fannie Mae-No Politics (FNMA)

[Potty]

"This should not be considered midnight action as it's been well telegraphed for years - White House Memo, Treasury Housing Reform Plan, etc."

It has been so telegraphed that no one still knows whether it will happen

Furthermore, "payoffs to political contributors" and "bailouts for hedgefunds" are not the kind of actions you do at the midnight hour if you have any hope to preserve your reputation -- the knives are already out for anyone in the Trump administration so calling more incoming fire down on oneself? I think not

"*$FNMAS ~$5 / ~20% of par if action is closer to a Letter Agreement. Maybe as low ~15%, but that was pre-Trump and there are 3 live cases (SCOTUS, Court of Claims, D.C. Circuit)*"

As you know, FNMAS is $6.6 already and less liquid issue are already at 20% par. There was really one big way for this trade to payoff with some certainty in a reasonable timeframe and that was administrative action. Once that goes down, there are a lot of folks and not many exits when the "FIRE!" cry goes up next week...

The other legal cases now really are a version of DOMBEY AND SONS -- ffs Lamberth is scheduling 2024? And why believe you see that? Judge Sweeney was a sunbeam of integrity (if nonetheless still glacial) and she has been moved off the case (!) and who knows what this new person's views are? Terrifying. So one is gambling on the Federal Judges on SCOTUS... I have gambled a few times on Federal Judges and FnF now, the stink has never completely gone away.

So, yes, I will look out for 10% of par next week...