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And how about all the dilutions under $3? That is called "giving the company away".
If they had partnered and built up a solid business and were taking in $200m+ a year in revenue, and had other indications progressing, and then REDUCE-IT failed, how does that equal 0?
REDUCE-IT, instead of being viewed as the end all be all, should have been viewed as "icing on the cake". They should have progressed forward after Marine approval with the assumption REDUCE-IT would not be successful. Then better business decisions would have been made. Then if it is successful, it is just 100% added value. Instead the entire company is riding on it because no contingencies or risk management strategies were implemented.
Um...or maybe they just want to make money?
Now THIS is how a board shows confidence in it's stock:
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/bioflash/2016/03/sarepta-shares-spike-as-three-directors-buy-2-5m.html
Spare me the "JT bought 25,000 shares" BS. And the "he already owns 700,000 shares!".
This is what SHOULD be happening with AMRN given that a multi-billion dollar market cap is just around the corner?
Yeah, all you do is go around here posting and replying with facts. haha...hilarious.
Yep. Imagine if they would have partnered with a legitimate BP early on after launch, got serious about marketing, and built up a solid underlying business. Imagine how much higher scripts would be (40-50k a week?) and how much extra money AMRN would be making. They could have leveraged that partnership and increased revenue to start trials for other indications. Then no matter what happens with REDUCE-IT, they have a solid underlying business going with bright future prospects and progress made on other indications.
It really isn't that complicated!
But instead, everything completely relies on REDUCE-IT. That IS the issue, that this is ALL about REDUCE-IT, and nothing else about this company is enticing to investors. AMRN even admits they are only marketing to high volume offices in very large cities. It is a crying shame the missteps that were made. Could have partnered with a large sales force BP and Vascepa's reach would be far ranging.
But hey, Raf gives management a 10 out of 10, so in his mind everything has been executed perfectly.
They decided they were happy because they were "getting all the advantages of NCE without actually having NCE". That is what we were told on the last CC. We even have posters here who believe we have "de facto NCE" and that an eventual OB is 100% certain. I tried to say that the FDA could easily be coming up with a new reason to deny NCE.
And there it is!.
Always an excuse ready. AMRN always the victim of someone or something else.
Let me guess, billion dollar hedge fund pros accumulating?
25,000 shares is a joke. This guy has made millions and millions of dollars between his salary and his stock sales back in the teens.
25,000 shares...HAHA...please.
I have asked that question many many times going back a long way.
It was rationalized away by people who post here. The main explanation is that insiders don't need to buy because they get so many free shares and options.
0% chance of that happening.
Companies are notified of NCE via the monthly Orange Book update. AMRN is not informed of that decision beforehand. So the earliest possible PR would be late Friday afternoon after it has already appeared in the Orange Book. This is what happened for NME. OB was updated first, followed AH that day by AMRN PR.
Nice dream, but like many dreams on here, no chance of it actually happening.
The result of the interim analysis is the major event. 967 is just a piece of that process.
Also, they have already told us when to expect it to happen, within a few months window. So there is no need for them to notify us to the exact day that it happens. Narrowing that window from a few months to an exact day really serves no purpose.
haha. Yep, that is what is going on. You and fishy got it all figured out. Billion dollar hedge funds just keeping ole AMRN down so they can buy shares!
The previous post about this small group of IHUB posters feeding off each other, living in their own little world certainly applies here.
" One can't help but wonder if our mutually reinforcing perspectives are distancing us from the real world."
Um....Ya think??!!!
Only 140 shares traded at $1.52. The rest traded at $1.49. Amazing that this has to be explained.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/amrn/after-hours
On 140 shares. Irrelevant.
Interesting you have continued to avoid addressing a single one of my reasons/questions as to why your theory is bunk.
I can't say for certain why enrollment is not yet complete. But I can tell you that your reason is clearly NOT the answer.
haha...you are funny. "learn about biotechs".
So genius, this outlandish theory you have about them slowing enrollment cause of quick heart attack risk "skewing results". Now, if your theory was correct, AMRN would well have known beforehand this was going to happen, no? I mean it is so "common" in biotechs and clearly AMRN knew they were going to slow down enrollment due to this "heart attack risk". So if AMRN knew this was going to happen, why did they tell us that enrollment would be complete around the end of the year? And why no mention or warning about this slow down in enrollment due to "heart attack risk"?
We have already been told that the vast majority of events will be coming from those who were enrolled before recently. This "heart attack risk" you speak of is ridiculously negligible.
Surely not because someone could have a heart attack right after being enrolled. That is the nature of the freaking drug trial. Anyone can have a heart attack at any moment. Quick happening events are just a natural risk factor to this trial. And if say one person does happen to have a heart attack within weeks of enrolling (chance is quite low of that happening per individual so the risk is maybe you get 1 person this would apply to?), there is a 50% chance that would actually help the results. And 1 or 2 events surely aren't going to skew the trial results to any significance either way.
Just a dumb overall explanation and makes zero sense.
That is one of the dumbest explanations I've ever heard.
We were told end of this year, and "perhaps some slippage into this year". We are almost to April and enrollment is not complete. So we are talking several extra months. This additional time could be to account for higher than expected dropouts. If dropouts are higher than they have been expecting then not increasing enrollment could put credibility of the results in question.
Could also explain why enrollment is continuing to be strung out forever. Maybe they are seeing high dropout rates and/or ran a model of future dropout so they decided they needed to enroll extra people.
Nothing wrong with volatility from a trader's perspective. I would Love some major upward volatility. But that wasn't my point. My point is what MANAGEMENT and the BOARD should do from THEIR perspective.
See below post. Coupled with what I have seen other biotech companies do. Other companies I have been invested in have just announced the interim analysis result. It is the right thing to do to avoid unneeded market volatility.
I still doubt there will be any notification. It makese sense that they wouldn't. And they shouldn't. Announcing the DMC analysis is starting would just create unneeded extremely volatility in the stock and create a HUGE binary event. There is no point in the announcement given that the DMC recommendation is the actual event that matters. Announcing 967 would just create chaos and serve no purpose. Since we have no idea when the recommendation would be made, the 967 announcement would only attract hoards of day traders and the stock would be all over the place. Imagine each passing day with no DMC recommendation and what the stock would be doing during this time.
Would be against management and the board's fiduciary responsibility to create such a trading environment.
This is unlikely to be announced.
I'll email you in early April.
We also have the Interim stop wager. $100 if no stop (or stop due to futility) to me, $300 if stopped (for efficacy) to you.
Not up yet. I think you have to the first or second Friday in April. Obviously I am fine waiting until that time is up. Of course the odds of scripts getting to 27k by that point are pretty remote. Just wanted to figure out what the plan is to settle. I don't have private messaging on here. Are we allowed to post email addresses? Is your email address your username at yahoo? I've seen you post on yahoo.
Raf, how are we going to settle up?
Scripts did not double in 6 months.
Ok, these are the issues that management is supposed to be addressing and correcting. That is their JOB. A real marketing effort or major partnership with a large pharma would have greatly helped. Large pharmas have connections with insurance companies and could do a heck of a lot for addressing these issues. But instead people on here just play the victim card and "aw shucks, poor AMRN, there is nothing they can do. Just a tiny victim of the system and circumstance".
AMRN, always a victim of circumstance. Victim victim victim. You yourself expected scripts to double after the 1A ruling. Reality isn't even close. And yet you are happy with the marketing effort? Talk about married to a stock!
17% market share in the approved market vs direct competitors over 3 years after launch. With a supposed superior product. I think that speaks for itself.
But hey, with you and many other posters, there is ALWAYS an excuse. So I expect you to fully respond with some excuse on why 17% market share is A-OK in your book given the "circumstances".
Substantially growing scripts and the obviously bad 1A settlement. These are just two. Not diluting at $2.50 last year will be another. Of course going back farther (since it is the SAME people running things now as then) we have the horrible loan in 2012 instead of dilution. We have a lack of any significant partnership to actually GROW sales (Kowa is and is still a joke). And absolute mother of all of bad decision making: GIA.
We also have the inability to attract and retain major institutional investors.
You all say how AMRN will be worth BILLIONS, if not TENS of BILLIONS in the near future. And yet the stock is at $1.60 a share and a $300m valuation. And you all sing management praises?! For taking an apparent many billion fold company down to a $300m valuation and $1.60 stock?! Boy the bar sure is low for what classifies as a successful management team.
Management has had many tests over the last several years! And they have failed nearly every single one of them.
And I have been saying for a veryyyy long time that this management team CANNOT negotiate to save their lives.
Well we have just a differing opinion I guess. A lot comes down to whether they would sell the company or move on with sales. In the latter case they will need A LOT more money than in the former case.
I factored in not only the money they will need but a $50-$100m buffer (biotechs don't like their cash reserves to ever get down very low). Considering they will be well under $50m at the end of this year if they don't do anything, and given the brutally low stock price, there is no getting around a major dilutive event. You of course are holding out for the interim stop while I am discounting that possibility and consider it a long shot.
Sounds good. But not sure how we will settle up or correspond once it is decided. Mods seem to be deleting any "bet related" posts. I can't get Raf to respond to my requests about how we are going to settle up on our $100 script bet. My posts about it get deleted quickly and Raf isn't responding to them.
Do not post is stupid to me. I don't get anything out of you not posting and I enjoy the back and forth and info you provide. So that does nothing for me. I can do money...$50? $100?
Of course I will take that. What are we betting?