Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
you...
OT -- Have you tried the italics feature? (See the "Text Features" line below the post composition box) It would make your posts much easier to read, rather than the "You... Me..." stuff.
me...
Frankly you guys are beginning to sound like my wife of 38 years, and believe me the last thing I need is more women in my life. I know I can be obstinate, obdurate, even pig headed, but those same endearing qualities are what has kept me in AMD when other more REASONABLE people would have cut and run on a number of occasions.
Personally, I like the "you, me, them" nomenclature since it avoids all doubt about who is talking. A lot of times posters just continue on with a conversation started in another post leaving the reader feeling like he came in the middle of the first Matrix movie.
you...
It looks like Intel is well poised to sell lots of wimax silicon in 2007. They hit this one just about right!
--Alan
me...
I think WiMax will have its' day, but that day is probably farther out than 2007. Wireless (portable) is going to be the big WiMax driver and that will probably go through a transition period where both cell and WiMax co-exist. Actually, I doubt that WiMax will be the end-all, but will turn out to be just another temporary stopping point.
Don't get me wrong I'm a big wireless fan and anything that provides competition to the cable guys is a good thing. However, there are a considerable number of problems to be overcome before it approaches even WiFi's popularity. Given the potential for increased bandwidth and range eventaully it should prove out.
Last I heard INTC had forced the standards comittee to put off a final decision about 802.11n. I'm not sure a compromise has even been reached yet. If I get a chance I'll check around.
WiMax still a glint in INTC's eye
http://internetweek.cmp.com/news/172900702
Them...
Almost all the panelists agreed that WiMAX would survive as part of a mix of access technologies. Mick Reeve, group technology officer for British Telecom, claimed that CTOs of most major carriers already have WiMAX trials underway, and that the first iterations of WiMAX -- which only support "fixed" or stationary end-user points -- will likely be marketed as DSL replacement services, offering "realistic" service of between 1 Mbps and 2 Mbps of bandwidth
Another hindrance for WiMAX is the lack of a worldwide standard slice of spectrum for the services to operate in. In Europe, the 3.5 GHz band is popular for WiMAX, but that spectrum is unavailable in the U.S.; instead, U.S. carriers are experimenting mainly in the bands at 2.5 GHz and the unlicensed 5.8 GHz range.
me...
That's what I'm thinking. DELL obviously couldn't go directly to AMD and say we want a bunch of Opterons, but we're not going to put them in complete systems. That might lead to some embarrassing questions, so I suspect a more circuitous route was devised that sort of avoided any innuendoes about why DELL would be buying Opteron parts if they really weren't up to DELL's standards and their customers really didn’t want them anyway. I imagine keeping up appearances with INTC also had something to do with it.
Replying to me...
Sorry, I missed your point about it being A64's Dell is selling, not opterons, but for the sake of the discussion it really isn't important. The thing is that DELL wouldn't be going to these lengths unless it was really hurting. The message DELL is sending is garbled at best, and very confusing at worst. DELL knocking AMD while at the same time selling AMD processors reeks of someone talking out of both sides of their mouth.
You...
Curiously there are Athlon 64 processors galore for sale at dell.com but, nary an Opteron. Would not the acquired distributor also distribute Opterons?
Me...
That's what I'm thinking. DELL obviously couldn't go directly to AMD and say we want a bunch of Opterons, but we're not going to put them in complete systems. That might lead to some embarrassing questions, so I suspect a more circuitous route was devised that sort of avoided any innuendoes about why DELL would be buying Opteron parts if they really weren't up to DELL's standards and their customers really didn’t want them anyway. I imagine keeping up appearances with INTC also had something to do with it.
You..
One other thing; perhaps DELL bought the distributor for the sole purpose of gaining access to AMD parts?
Me..
Well just why would Dell need a distributor, if in fact they bought one? Dell is big enough that the manufacturs come to them. So what is it that DELL might need that it cannot get directly itself?
You...
Has everyone forgotten that Dell got these parts by aquiring another company and acording to AMD has never entered into a purchase process with AMD?
Me...
So you think this is a one time event and DELL's inventory of AMD parts won't be refreshed?
If DELL bought a distributor then presumably that distributor is going to stay in business which means that it will have access to AMD parts. How is this different from DELL buying the parts directly from AMD?
One other thing; perhaps DELL bought the distributor for the sole purpose of gaining access to AMD parts? I can't imagine why DELL would need a distributor to get INTC parts, but there may be more to it. Perhaps access to other channels, but I kind of doubt it as DELL is large enough to avoid channels completely.
Low end NOR prices to rise 10%.
http://www.digitimes.com/news/a20051110A5022.html
Them....
Commenting on the present supply situation, Fu indicated that supply for 8Mbit NOR flash is steady compared to the previous quarter. However, strong demand for consumer electronics goods and the popularity of the Apple iPod nano are major reasons for the price up this quarter, he added.
Me...
I wonder how much NOR the IPod uses? Also, sort of related, I wonder who Apples flash supplier will be?
You...
Does this IPO help AMD's bottom line?
ME...
Not immediately, AMD would have to liquidate their position to recognize a gain since they are a very minority holder. To AMD it's just a balance sheet item, not marked up or down.
You...
Actually I see that Intel balance sheet has $13.93bn on it so a $25bn buyback would make quite a hole.
Me...
The significant thing is the time period involved. Like I said this is a funding move not a dispersal of money. The whole thing is just BS, kind of the way AMD used to make upbeat announcements prior to lousy earnings. If I were to guess this is probably a teaspoon of sugar for something that's about to go down.
On the INTC share buyback.
The key words are "up to" in the $25B buyback announcement. This is basically a long term authorization. To me this reeks of more desperation as it is typical of a company at its top trying to pump up the stock price. I wonder how Joe Osha will react to the news given his preference for dividends over buybacks?
Refunding earnings to stockholders is the best thing to do if the company doesn't have anything worthwhile to spend the money on.
From an AMD point of view INTC will still have a huge cash horde so it really doesn't make much difference.
You...
I think it's a little premature to write off the holiday PC season on 11/9. Consumers have been trained to put off technology buys until the last minute as PC prices always seem to drop overnight while the platforms keep improving.
Me...
Yeah, I didn't mind Toshiba having slow sales, what I couldn't understand was Acer. Given Acer's involvement with Turion I would have expected sales to be doing quite well. But as usual there's probably more to it than what the story implies.
The Apple sales gains part of the story was the most significant revelation and confirms what others are saying. Also the bit about DELL being hurt rings true, especially in light of the actions being taken to sell AMD processors. Also the rush by DELL to introduce high-end game PCs that no self-respecting gamer will buy reeks of desperation.
What we need to figure out is whether this is just an INTC /DELL slow market or whether it extends to AMD also. On the one hand we keep getting these booming Taiwan mobo sales reports, and on the other we get these slowing U.S. sales reports. Perhaps the 2 can be reconciled by the time differences in which both events happened? Right now things look a little confused.
One thing worth remembering is that U.S. consumer sales are only a small part of total AMD sales so even if U.S. consumers slow down it might not amount to much in the big picture. AMD now has a much more diversified product line and customer base than it used to.
Right now I'm still thinking AMD is going to have a very good quarter and INTC is going to end up with a lot more inventory. If so we should soon start to hear about big price reductions on INTC products.
You...
Ok, this is funny, buy your high-end AMD CPUs for less - @ Dell!
Me...
What's the world coming to? Next thing you know DELL will be selling whole AMD machines. Mikey must really be hurting. I wonder how INTC feels about this?
Maybe we should turn the flag upside down as the English did at Yorktown? Certainly Armageddon must be near. We must all say our prayers that sanity returns and DELL returns to the INTC path, else we are all lost. Surely this is the devil's handiwork.
you...
But it would certainly save me some effort comprehending your posts, if you know what I mean. :)
Paul
Me...
I don't like italics, so I'll use the you, them, me convention. Hope that helps.
Funny question. The sameness of earnings has the same meaning as the sameness of share price. Get real.
Me...
Just what does this mean? Is it Elbonian?
You...
You'd be a better investor if you got over your "slow blood sucking" comments about Intel. Get over it, it's a company entity, nothing more. As a company, it's one of the best as indicated by the awards achieved.
Me...
Every dog has its' day and INTC has had its'. Time for a new top dog, move over rover.
Sony gets sued over DMR in Calif.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051110/tc_nm/media_sonybmg_dc
Me...
If Sony was smart they would beat a hasty retreat. This is going to attract more jump on legal suits than INTC got because of AMD's suit..
Oh, I see it all. Certainly retail does not a significant change make. What I don't see is 50% market share for AMD. 20% would get me my investment objective if I can get my asking price.
Me...
Where did this 50% number come from, certainly not from me. Maybe in a couple more years, but not next year.
What do you think the PEG analysts will value AMD at if AMD's EPS are more than INTC's this q? What would people be willing to pay for that kind of growth?
Slow holiday PC season in U.S.?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20051109/tc_nm/holidays_dc
Galaxy, better late than never.
http://www.computerworld.com/hardwaretopics/hardware/story/0,10801,106070,00.html
Not a long read and some other info.
MSFT tires of Itanium?
http://www.anandtech.com/cpuchipsets/showdoc.aspx?i=2598
Them...
As the Itanium market is still limited to HPC and (ultra) high-end servers, Microsoft is losing interest in the Itanium. IA 64 versions of Longhorn are low priority and only the future of the High Performance Computing version for Itanium seems certain. Visual Studio 2005 does not even support the Itanium platform. Dell and IBM are no longer interested. It is not going too well for Itanium.
Although the AMD Opteron targets a different market than the Intel Itanium, the Opteron market is expanding towards the high end, thanks to Sun, which in turn forces Intel to expand the feature set of the Xeon. Back in 2004 when EM64T was introduced, Intel pointed out that EM64T was only introduced on the Xeon DP. Intel probably expected the Opteron to be limited to workstations and entry level servers. However, the Opteron was very successful in the quad CPU market, and then it entered the 8-way and 16-way CPU market too. Intel had no choice then to counter attack and equip the Xeon MP with EMT64 and much higher clockspeeds than before the Opteron era, better RAS features and massive (for x86) L3 caches, up to 8MB big.
Me...
Just wait until Horus and Pathscale get going. Itanium and big Iron in general are going to be feeling a lot of pain. Not something that will happen overnight, but that's not what we want anyways. As slow a death as possible would be the best outcome for AMD stockholders. Let's hope, like a big fat leach, Itanium continues to drain the lifeblood out of INTC for a long time.
But it´s a good thing to have optimists, realists and pessimists on a board. It balances things.
Me...
Fair enough. I would be amazed if all my expectations came to fruition, but I also expect to see some things happen that I didn't count on. It would be interesting if either of us remembers this narrative and revisits it next year.
I think where we differ the most is in our perceptions of INTC vulnerability. To me AMD's success in the server area is going to lead to a lot of business defections, especially if "all the new INTC products" being touted somehow don't quite live up to expectations.
To me it seems fairly obvious that AMD is now laying the groundwork for a big market share push next year. Where that happens will probably depend on where INTC is most vulnerable, but I expect the AMD pyramid to be revisited with emphasis being shifted to the low-end of the market again. That's where the volume is and AMD is going to want Fab36/Chartered volume sold. Next year should be very good for consumers.
One of the things that came out of the CC that I haven't seen any comment on is the statement by Hector that operating margins would stay in the 20% to 25% area. To me that was kind of a red flag indicating that AMD is battening down the hatches for a big run at INTC.
Only during the brief K7 dominance has INTC ever had to deal with this kind of a problem and if the way it has handled problems recently is any indication I expect it to be caught completely flatfooted once again.
Have they really? There's still that 1.5% increase in market share you can shout about. We'll see.
Me...
U.S. Retail sales are just one indication. If you would take the time to look around a little you would easily find many more examples. Kind of like an Easter Egg hunt except that each egg is a Faberge Egg.
bobs, while I think you´re overly optimistic, there´s nothing wrong with that if you can live with dissapointments
Me...
What kind of disappointments are you thinking of? Having owned a rather large position in AMD for about 7 years now, I'm thinking anything less than bamboo shoots under the fingernail is less than some of the pain already endured.
Really, what is your idea of disappointment? I'll go first.
I would be disappointed if AMD's stock price wasn't at least 50% higher next year at this time. I would also be chagrined if AMD didn't have 25% of the market and margins close to INTC's with the Spansion adjustments included (Spansion is going to do a lot better). I didn't give INTC's current margins because those are going to drop a lot. I would also be disappointed if AMD didn't have about 25% of the server market. I also expect AMD to still have the design lead in servers with Horus and Pathscale systems beginning to challenge the market for big iron. I also expect AMD to have at least 30% of the notebook market.
I would say more, but I've already provided a ton of ammo and opened myself up completely to the daughters/sons of Satan. But you get the idea, I don't think INTC will present any obstacles to AMD's progress. First quarter next year should give a pretty good idea of what defenses INTC is able to mount to the AMD juggernaut.
Of course the disappointments I've listed would have been cause to cheer a few years ago. My how things have changed.
Pathscale never fails to impress. Saxman
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/051109/sfw049.html?.v=33
Them....
In recently submitted TopCrunch benchmarks, the InfiniPath interconnect demonstrated that LS-DYNA deployed on commodity, AMD Opteron-processor based Linux® clusters can scale to over 256 CPUs, offering similar performance to a Cray supercomputer for a fraction of the cost. TopCrunch is an online forum, organized by the University of California, San Diego, for posting benchmarks that track performance trends of high performance computer systems and engineering software. During the most recent TopCrunch benchmarking, the PathScale InfiniPath interconnect enabled LS-DYNA to run faster and scale higher than any previous Linux cluster. The TopCrunch results are available at http://www.topcrunch.org/.
"Our results from the TopCrunch benchmarks are a testament to the fact that engineering driven companies can achieve supercomputing performance with commodity-priced AMD Opteron based clusters," said Scott Metcalf, president and CEO of PathScale. "We're looking forward to a successful relationship with LSTC. Together, we can offer unique high performance computing solutions that accelerate engineering breakthroughs, improve automobile and aerospace design and safety, and achieve faster returns on investments for our customers."
Me...
Is that the death knell I hear for big iron. Itanium timing was perfect. Of course making the best buggy whips at the time of the automobiles introduction was a surefire recipe for oblivion.
Cell processors difficult to program. Well duh.
http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ttpcworld/123348&cid=1740&ncid=1729
Them....
But Shimpi says title designers are struggling with the new platform. "I have heard nothing but bad things about the Cell processor when it comes to game developers," Shimpi warns. "You can call game developers lazy, unwilling to change, or whatever, but the fact of the matter is that they are building the next generation of games, and I have yet to hear a single one embrace the architecture and say, 'Yes! This is exactly what we've wanted.'"
Me...
Compilers are going to have to get a lot smarter because humans aren't.
INTC wins a powerpoint award. From Saxman.
http://www.amdzone.com/modules.php?op=modload&name=News&file=article&sid=4200&mode=t...
Them... Best of Breakaway awards were presented to:
-- Intel Corporation, the world's largest chip maker and a leading manufacturer of computer, networking and communications products, for Best Presentation. Intel representatives spoke at the conference on a range of topics, including how computing and communications devices are becoming one; and on the emergence of the digital home.
Me...
Meanwhile AMD wins for:
Them...
-- AMD, designer and producer of innovative microprocessors, Flash memory devices and low-power processor solutions for the computer, communications and consumer electronics industries, for Best Strategy. AMD representatives demonstrated a live upgrade of its AMD Athlon(TM) 64 X2 dual core processor and spoke about how the company's products are included in mainstream desktop and laptop computers
Me...
If I were INTC I would be insulted, but I'm sure the irony probably went over INTC's head.
bobs, that is data for last quarter (Q3).
me...
That's fine. The way these things have moved in the past, last year’s data would have been about as good. The important thing is that the rate of change is accelerating. These sub 1% changes in total market share per quarter are about to become a thing of the past.
Every design win, every new processor, every new product designed to go with what AMD is selling, every new 64 bit piece of software all contribute to AMD gains. For the last couple of years we have seen nothing but an increasing stream of AMD good news, as INTC has continued to flounder. Eventually the piper has to be paid and that day is happening now. You can only screw up so many times before people start to realize what is going on. The INTC reservoir of goodwill built up over decades is nearly spent.
Yeah, I know; just wait until INTC's new products hit the market. Well that day may happen, but unless INTC can show a clear superiority it's unlikely that they will ever dominate the market the way they have in the past. More likely is that even with design parity AMD would continue to take market share for quite a few more quarters. As far out as I can see the possibility of INTC gaining design parity, other than laptops, still seems unlikely. Further, there seems to be a complete lack of innovation going on at INTC which is probably the biggest indictment one can make about the company.
Personally I think the low-power aspects of processors will assume even more importance as the markets start to shift towards Alchemy/Geode products for sub laptop products and products that run exclusively on batteries.
Anyway, AMD is going to have a quarter we've not seen since the K7 days. At a minimum I'm expecting AMD to beat INTC EPS and I expect to see big gains in INTC's inventory, beyond this quarters $100m. Then next quarter AMD really takes off the gloves as the big push to gain market share begins.
You can´t really draw any conclusions from this data about AMD´s total CPU shipments.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2005/11/08/amd_ups_market_share/
Me...
Looks like AMD is doing pretty well in Europe too. Almost 50% gain y/y. Read the post, there's more.
Them...
Figures from Context Research show 14.8 per cent of desktop computers sold through dealers in the third quarter of 2005 were powered by AMD chips. That compares to AMD's market share of just 10.5 per cent in the same period last year.
The alternative chip provider is doing particularly well in selling PCs to home users through the multiple retail channel - nearly one in five PCs sold through retail in France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK contained AMD chips.
Enterprise customers are also being tempted away from their usual loyalty to Intel. AMD increased its share of business to resellers specialising in larger customers to 8.6 per cent from just 3 per cent in September 2004. Sales of AMD's Opteron chip for servers have also grown - its share of channel sales is up to 4.6 per cent from just 1 per cent last year
The cost of the wafers are a bit of a red herring.
Me....
It doesn't make any sense to look at just one factor in a process as complicated as processor production. Things like higher bin splits/yields could easily offset the added cost of SOI. I'm no process expert, but clearly something is working, as AMD seems very willing to take the fight to INTC even without fab36 production.
A few possible reasons for this bellicose posture could be:
1) Better yields/binsplits from 90nm.
2) Inventory carryover from q3, despite a banner q3.
3) The need to prime the market for fab36 production next q.
4) 90nm fab36 sample production that's good enough to sell now.
5) New stuff that requires the clearing out the old.
6) AMD is selling everything it has and is doing a remarkable job of managing sales/demand.
I would guess that probably more than one of the above apply but who knows? Also, there is probably a lot more factors than I listed.
The really strange thing about the battle that seems to be shaping up is that it's occurring just as INTC is bringing on 65nm. Clearly AMD isn't being intimidated. You would think that an AMD having to compete with both 65nm and 300mm would be in a defensive mode, but that's not what we're seeing.
You can´t really draw any conclusions from this data about AMD´s total CPU shipments.
Me...
We'll see, but I doubt AMD would be going to it's full court press in just the U.S. This is just the beginning of the game. What's more important is OEM penetration and we'll have to wait a bit longer for those numbers.
Anyway, the main point about SOI being an asset instead of a liability seems to be gaining more validity as AMD seems to be pulling huge quantities of processors out of a fab that never produced anywhere near the total processors now hitting the market. And it's not all due to 90nm either. Something else is going on.
It's going to be interesting viewing INTC's inventory at the end of q4. Contrary to what I expected, INTC clearly is being forced to play AMD's game and fab36 production hasn't even started to hit the market yet. INTC usually knows pretty well a quarter in advance what its' numbers are going to be so I doubt too much of a hit to margins in q4, but next year should be very interesting. If INTC has the sort of problems with 65nm it had with 90nm the floor is going to fall out from under margins.
So far I have very good feelings about AMD's 90nm process, while INTC's 65nm remains a question mark. To me it looks like INTC is going to need a very viable 65nm process if it has any hope of retaining its' margins next year.
This is not slow-pitch AMD is playing anymore. And so far this is just batting practice.
A good question:
Given AMD's surge in retail sales and considering that they still have only one 200mm/90nm plant producing all their processors one might ask, “where are all these chips coming from”?
WBMW has repeatedly assured that while SOI may work for AMD because it is essentially a boutique producer it would never work for INTC where costs and producability are paramount. His whole argument is that being a small producer AMD can afford the higher wafer costs rather than investing in more equipment because of price per unit breakdowns. INTC on the other hand has to go with volume and the added cost of SOI just doesn't warrant the results.
Yet, AMD seems to be kicking the stuffing out of INTC in the very markets that are the most cost conscious. Somehow this argument just doesn't ring true. As usual WBMW appears to have fabricated an answer that doesn't match reality. He really does have a fertile imagination.
Could it be there's more to SOI than the additional costs of the discs alone? Like maybe better bin yields/splits. There is just no way of getting around it, AMD obviously has the better manufacturing processes, and it looks like INTC's move to 65nm is having little effect on costs, at least so far.
Frankly, I'm really more than amazed at what AMD has been able to get out of fab30. The production manager really deserves a lot of kudos.
Yeah, these things take time.
Kind of like the old saw about the aircraft carrier taking 10 miles to turn around. AMD has been beating up INTC for about 5 years now, as reflected in the relative stock price actions, but if you looked at INTC's earnings/market share alone, you would swear that the company was still in top form.
The problem is that INTC's/DELL's trajectories are parabolic and about at their apex. Indeed what is important is the rate of ascent which is what the stock market has been focusing on. In that department, both have seen a lot better days, and neither is likely to have a rocket stage left that would put them into orbit again.
It looks much more like the market is saying that all that's left is a fiery return to earth and a lot of time in the hanger trying to put things back together.
But there are those that will continue to say both Dell and INTC are great values based on earnings even as those earnings start to fall. Earnings are a terrible indicator to use in turn around situations, both up and down.
DELL is history?
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/051106/dell.html?.v=1
ATI Delivers GPU-Accelerated Video Transcoding
http://news.yahoo.com/s/zd/20051102/tc_zd/164187;_ylt=ArB3YbHCS536A7dtctJz9Bus0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTA3cjE0...
Still, this is worth getting excited about. A 5x performance advantage over the CPU isn't the kind of thing that will be leapfrogged by dual-core CPUs and multithreaded encoders, or by any CPU released for some time. Every manufacturer of video transcoding software should be absolutely beating down a path to ATI's door right about now, figuring out how it can add that "GPU acceleration" checkbox to its application as quickly as possible. We mean Nero, Microsoft, Apple, Cyberlink, Adobe, and every other firm that makes a video-encoding application. Given how many countless man-hours are spent trying to get a 20% or 30% boost in encoding performance, the prospect of encoding on the GPU should have a bunch of engineers salivating.
Lindenhurst problems
http://www.hexus.net/content/item.php?item=3824
Intel's Xeon chip kill is result of chaos in India
ME...
Is there such a thing as INTC management? I know there's an oxymoron in there someplace cleverly disguised. I wouldn't trust these guys with building an outhouse. Clearly INTC has completely lost it. Is there anything these guys can't screw up?
They are forcing that debt off the books. All holders will elect to convert to stock @ $7.37/sh, instead of accepting the payback of principal, which has already been assumed in the previous Q's diluted share count.
Me...
It may sound crazy, but I seem to recall in at least one of AMD's conversions a significant number of convertible bond holders failed to convert. This seems especially strange given that these bonds have been sold, essentially outside of the market, and one would suppose to people that know what they're doing? Usually the bonds are sold in a private placement and we find out about it latter making it difficult if not impossible to get any.
AMD's advantage
The value of the onboard memory controller and HT technology has been obvious for a long time, but the significance of those ideas just continues to grow, especially in the light of INTC's continuing problems in coming up with a competitive offering.
I only hope that the individuals involved in that huge step in processor development were suitably rewarded in last quarter’s distributions. I'm sure they were, but I wonder if Fred got his share?
One has to wonder just how protected those ideas must be given the rumored solutions INTC is coming up with. It sounds like AMD must have patented everything remotely relating to HT technology leaving INTC to reinvent the wheel in a manner that is probably suboptimal to AMD's solution.
It's becoming more and more obvious that connecting technology is where the big processor gains are going to be coming from as more and more specialized and general processors are hooked together. Aside; (It's beginning to sound more and more like the layout of the human brain? I wonder if there is some optimal design for thinking machines in this existence that we live in?)
Anyway, given AMD's lead and control of interconnect technology it's hard to see how INTC is going to catch up, ever. Especially when one looks at today's INTC in comparison to the company of the late 80s/90s. I don't know how it happened but clearly INTC just doesn't have the good stuff anymore. Clearly the company needs to be shaken up from top to bottom and that's something that will only occur after profits start their skid. So since that isn't likely to happen soon we're probably looking at 07, at the earliest, before the imperative arrives and changes occur.
All this dithering on the part of INTC is only going to be good for AMD stockholders. 06 should be a fabulous year.
I expect most server applications run in a correct environment will show roughly a 20% performance deficit on Paxville. This is certainly not ideal, but it's certainly better than the 60% deficit seen on single core chips prior to Paxville's release. And I've already said this much several times already. There's really not much more to say.
Me...
Let me get this straight. So what your going to sell the server buyer is that while Paxville may still be 20% under performing Opterons it's 60% better than what it replaces from INTC. Boy talk about a hard sell. So the buyer is supposed to buy an inferior, hot potato, under performer that uses power like an air conditioner just because INTC makes it?
I could see a soap manufacturer saying "buy our ZIT brand because it's 60% better than using a rock at the river to clean your clothes".
I know, just wait until the next release of products. Don't you guys have any other tunes to play.
smooth - Ever heard of growth? I imagine Chartered will not be producing their high performance products, more likely Semprons; that will allow AMD to focus their own capacity and expertise on the higher-end stuff.
me...
Yeah, that's pretty much what I expect. Given AMD's inverted pyramid the low-end of the market (Sempron) has been suffering the most because of the capacity issues. Katrina's tidal surge is going to be nothing compared to AMD's next year.
INTC's only hope is for a strong market. Any lifeboats left on the Itanic?