Advanced Micro Devices Inc (AMD)

[bobs10]

But it´s a good thing to have optimists, realists and pessimists on a board. It balances things.

Me...

Fair enough. I would be amazed if all my expectations came to fruition, but I also expect to see some things happen that I didn't count on. It would be interesting if either of us remembers this narrative and revisits it next year.

I think where we differ the most is in our perceptions of INTC vulnerability. To me AMD's success in the server area is going to lead to a lot of business defections, especially if "all the new INTC products" being touted somehow don't quite live up to expectations.

To me it seems fairly obvious that AMD is now laying the groundwork for a big market share push next year. Where that happens will probably depend on where INTC is most vulnerable, but I expect the AMD pyramid to be revisited with emphasis being shifted to the low-end of the market again. That's where the volume is and AMD is going to want Fab36/Chartered volume sold. Next year should be very good for consumers.

One of the things that came out of the CC that I haven't seen any comment on is the statement by Hector that operating margins would stay in the 20% to 25% area. To me that was kind of a red flag indicating that AMD is battening down the hatches for a big run at INTC.

Only during the brief K7 dominance has INTC ever had to deal with this kind of a problem and if the way it has handled problems recently is any indication I expect it to be caught completely flatfooted once again.