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well i guess that is one possible interpretation
and thanks for taking the time to clarify
what you believe are the signs
here is what i think about those 5 questions/observations
1. GDGI got their fins current for EOY.
What reason did they bother to do this?
because, as i said, at the time they said they believed they had a sale coming very soon. and they did not want to look unnecessarily bad by not filing 10k reports while people were looking to make a big purchase from them. i could see how not being current could affect the perception of a customer for a potential major sale.
and why does any company ever bother to file 10k reports? only when they think they will be bought out. no. you just do it. arent you required by law to file them sooner or later? people file them because you look rinky dink if you dont? so when you can afford to file them you do. and when you cant you dont.
2. GDGI was replying to investors on a fairly regular basis and now rely if at all.
Why the sudden silence?
perhaps because they went to testify to the SEC and they realized they are not comfortable with trifling with the prohibition on sharing material non public information with individuals instead of putting out to the general public all at once through accepted channels thereby making it public information. perhaps because they feel more comfortable saying nothing than saying "nothing" - they would rather leave you guessing than tell you nothing has happened and at this point they have to admit they are not able to predict sales as well as they hoped when they said very soon several times at the beginning of the year.
3. There has been no dilution for several months.
Why not? (every other penny stock seems to do this on a regular basis)
because they are a rare pink sheet company that respects shareholders and would rather go without pay and cut expenses than burn cash the company has not earned yet at expense of shareholder value. certainly a good thing! but nothing to do with a buyout. if there were twice as many shares outstanding would that affect the potential for a buyout? no. that is completely irrelevant. see?
4. Once GDGI got current on the fins they went right back to being late on the fin reports.
Why bother getting current just to fall back into delinquency?
again, companies like to report because they are expected to and have some kind of legal obligation to get it done sooner or later. at the beginning of the year, they got enough money to get current. they hoped to get some more. the fact that they did not file does not suggest to me magicman is coming from the clouds to buy them out. it suggests they havent made any money yet. why get current? because you can. why not stay current? because you can't if you don't have more money to do the filings.
5. Since that large buy a few months ago the stock has been held down which looks purposely done.(BTW its around 5 mil shares, I think so far, that were sold short in the last few months.
Why do we see so much shorting or holding down of this POS?
that is a mystery. it is such a trifling quantity of money there. and i thought you had to be some kind of big shot to find a broker to lend you shares of a tiny stock like this to short. so that i guess i will say is odd to me, and might suggest someone is trying to keep it cheap while they arrange a friendly takeover (hostile aint happenin with 2.3rs in float and held tight)
but then there has been shorting before too
so the shorts might just be shorting because they perceive the price support is all coming from hype and when that hype does not pan out in the short term, the stock will fall temporarily as the disappointed and impatient make their exit
as i said, one shareholder has changed his mind about selling 11 million shares july 1, but that statement could make a reasonable person consider the possible profitability of a short sale
well you can celebrate when that "probable" buyout occurs
meanwhile, unless i am remembering wrong, mr tx also mentioned that has little or no experience as a stock picker or at least pink sheet picker as i recall and one person's opinion, backed by $36k or not, will not sway me, but rather the merits of the arugment, which by the way did not include "buyout" ever
warren buffet, swinging a multibillion dollar investment, talks and people listen
i listend to mr tx and am unconvinced
anyway, mr tx said nothing about a buyout. he said he thought a development outside GDGI would raise awareness of mist cooling in general and be good for the company.
are we sure that mr tx owns the new thing? i thought he just knew about it. anyway, yeah, i think all else being equal, in the absence of any reason to believe there will be a buyout besides the ONE reason given, mr tx invested 36k (i believe that part) and owns a competing company, that the odds of a buyout are very slim.
mr tx may be right that if the company he points to succeeds, people will be interested in the product and look for competitors and a public traded company is a place people can invest and that can help GDGI rise to meet their competition if the company mr tx points to succeeds earlier
if he doesnt own the company he points to, he is at least more familiar with it than most and perhaps inclined to be confident in it, yet he doesnt think it is gonna sneak up a clobber GDGI it would seem, so that is reassuring.
but none of that means a buyout is likely.
that is just made up out of thin air as far as i can tell.
or what?
again, a competitor buying $36k and saying so means a buyout?
if the competitor wants to buyout, they dont SAY they are buying the shares to create a stake to launch a takeover. so its not like mr tx, if he owns the other company, is going to do the buyout if that is what anyone was thinking.
unless mr tx is plumb crazy. you dont play your hand like that on a hostile takeover.
anyway, hostile takeover is not going to happen. i bet there are too many stubborn longs here locking up the flat! not such a bad thing.
now i suppose a management sale could be coming but mr tx would be shooting himself in the foot if he made the price go up and be was buying with mngt cooperation
the only reason to believe there could be a buyout is because the company is SUPER cheap for what they have, but there is nothing to indicate a particular buyer is buying
unless i am missing something about GDGI
also, when you bet the point bets, the house has no advantage. you have to bet the pass line to bet the point, so you want a table with the maximum ratio of point bet to pass line bet and you can pretty much whittle the house edge down to a fraction of a percent at even 10 to 1, let alone 100 to 1, if you have the stomach for that much action.
what the other players do with their bets, at the risk of stating the obvious, has nothing to do with the outcome, if you believe in the science of probability that makes the profits that built the profits Las Vegas. if you believe in the superstitions of the losing masses at the gaming tables, well, those built Las Vegas too, I guess.
of course, with markets, it is much different.
and poker. because betting makes poker a market, playing poker with whackadooos throws a wrench, unless you known how to play your whackadooos better than the other guys.
like some kind of weird reporting error? could be. seems like it could just be coincidence too.
seemingly either way, nobody has shares to sell up aftermarket.
if you are asking someone to value the company hundred billions, i dont think that counts as having shares up.
i think if i wanted to present a one sided overly optimistic unrealistic point of view about the stock's potential, i would be the kind of person who would not openly admit that i was doing that.
if one has the goal of presenting an unrealistically optimistic view to drive the stock price higher, it would be perhaps good to refrain from openly admitting that, and perhaps even disguise that by deigning to bring up possible downsides or problems and then dismissing or minimizing those downsides. but i guess maybe in making that choice, i would be overestimating people.
there may be a lot of people who will see a ton of hype and no discussion of possible problems and be convinced. well - the stock owners on the GDGI message board say a silent and, at last measure, broke, company's silence indicates a probable buyout. wow! i gotta get in on this! i am probably way off base thinking no one is stupid enough to fall for that.
maybe those who think substance-free pumpery is good for stock are correct. i have no penny stock experience, approach this stock as a value investor, and am unfraid of the consequences of frank discussion of the stock's potential, because i am in it for the long haul - til true success, not til hype pops the price a little.
if you are already in or considering getting in, i encourage you to be concerned with short term price movements only inasmuch as they allow you to buy more. if they succeed, and with their EPA and Tulane and Harvey Mudd endorsed proven money saving green tech with a two year payback, soon to be shortened by the coming wave of electric utility efficiency rebate programs that are a certainty with the executive order of the president limiting and taxing emmissions, they have a good chance, it will be a big payoff.
i give them better than 50/50 odds of eventual success with a 20 to one or better pay out from where we are now.
i give them a 1 in 100 shot for a buyout before the end of the year.
i would be very disinclined to trust someone who told me a near term buyout was probable based on i dont know what.
i would think that person was blowing some smoke somewhere
i have asked why anyone would think that and no one was responded, beyond venturing to say that my asking why people would post such nonsense on here is bad for the stock price.
so i am not super convinced that a buyout in the near term is likely, given the only reason anyone has given for that is that i should play along with the hype cause it will help the price
that is pretty awesome that stockholders
are getting behind this
and i think if board posters and readers give it some thought
there may be more such opportunities - anyone
who knows someone who can influence facilities management decisions at a place with 4,000 sq ft or fewer feet but hot feet
can potentially help sell one of the commercial units
and 18 would be a good sale
only a hundred k in profit
but anything would be an improvement over nothing
(for those just joining us, DD master dcsteve found a florida municipality meeting minutes showing they were considering buying a bunch of commercial cool and save units but had somehow failed to connect with the company, so steve sicd the CEO on em and they are discussing the purchase. that (unlike some other stuff you can read here) is not some made up baseless pie in the sky nonsense, it is real and well documented. and they would not be the first small local govt to buy a cool and save. once again, due the yeoman efforts of DD master dcsteve, we know a firehouse(?if i recall) in illinois has one and loves it. and that is in the midwest where it is hot as very hot balls in the summer but only 5 or 6 months of cooling (at the risk of stating the obvious, the payback/annual savings is higher where you have 12 months AC demand a year (for large buildings which need ac more months than residences) - the SW us and south of the us in mexico, costa rica where GDGI is actively trying to sell and has done tests and i guess some limited sales already maybe.
even 20 or 30 k in profits would be enough to allow them to file and i am not so sure that people are correct that the levy's must be sentenced for the 2million debt to formally (it is already a sure thing) come off the books. i think if they file, we may see that 2 million is gone. so that could be good.
but for it to get to prices where i would consider selling, we are gonna need a 100 unit or more sale
if is is an LBO in the form of hostile takeover,
the sky is the limit
they would have 2/3rds of the float
if management held their own shares
that is a lot of buying pressure
i dont see that happening
if it is an invited aquisition or merger
that mangaement is cooperating with
it would be up the CEO to establish a valuation
and stockholder shares would be converted
into shares in the aquiring company
at a ratio determined by the valuation agreed on
if the CEO is desperate and kind of sick of it,
it could go for every cheap. on the other hand
if the CEO is completely desperate and totally sick of it
but also a cagey bastard, he could make the acquiring
company pay for the true potential of GDGI
i cant imagine it would go for over 10 million
given where they are right now
despite a great product, they have failed to execute
but if a big AC company really wanted it and the patent moat is strong (that is, not a lot of other ways to do this) or they just see revenue potential in the 100s of millions in a single year so why wait and fool around to develop their own, well...i guess it could go for a lot.
if they could just land one of these big 100 location sales
we could see valuation of 25 million or more
(10 cents or higher share price)
Why do people think a buyout is probable?
Is it because the company, which had $350 in the bank in December, and said a big sale was coming soon in January, and then did not announce a big sale in March when they released their financials and said they had a new royalty deal in asia and were continuing to develop potential clients or something to that effect,has since then not announced the very soon in january big sale, nor any royalty revenue and has also said nothing and also missed a filing?
I suppose that COULD be an indicator of a buyout
but if those factors make a buyout probable,
I would guess the pinks are teeming with near-dormant
companies that are probably going to get bought out
based on similar situations.
I very much doubt that is the case.
I think the most probable explanation of why they have said nothing since march is that the situation remains the same: they have said nothing because at the moment they have nothing new to say and no money to say it with.
I think they said very soon in January because they thought they would have a deal very soon. And since then they have shut up about it because 1) when you go the SEC to testify, your lawyer says stop breaking the law by talking to individual stockholders about material non public information and 2) they now know that they are subject to the universal human condition: they don't know. Pretty basic, but i guess we all learn that at some point and until we learn it, we dont know it.
I think it is most likely that they continue, with a very thin and perhaps unpaid corporate staff, to seek to complete some sales they had underway, and they continue to hope that their partner in asia makes sales and pays royalties and they continue to hope that their authorized dealers makes sale.
They still have a great product, a great share structure, and, having shed the pernicious influence of the Levy's, a strong commitment to preserving shareholder value eschewing the cycle of exaggerated claims and dilution that are typical of pink sheet stocks.
Lucky for swing traders, while the company won't hype, there are plenty of message board commenters who will say things like: the company will probably be bought out soon.
If that is better than a 50/50 shot, i am Mary Queen of Scotts
It is certainly not impossible though
Sadly, we cannot know the true underlying stochastic figure, only the outcome, so the question of my royalty will remain unanswered even when the company is or is not bought out by year end.
Sigh.
that is not correct
misting the air around the heat exchange fins of a heat pump makes the air cooler. if you are trying to move heat energy from outside to inside, you dont want it to be cooler outside.
south central canada big buildings run ac may-sept and maybe more
some of that 250 million rural energy efficiency
money could conceivably wind up subsidizing cns
purchases
i dont see much direct benefit in here
but just forcing the utilities to curtail emissions
will force them to run their own efficiency programs
and surely some of them will be written broadly
to allow you to defer your electric bill
to invest in energy efficiency or whatever
kind of rebate or laon financing or whatever
CNS is already EPA endorsed so it shoudl qualify
for any utility program that is not foolishly narrow
full text of plan
i am glad nobody was counting their chickens before they hatched
re the mrtx prediction
i hope we see movement
but its not gonna be earth shattering
for your 10 20 30 40 bagger
you have to be patient and wait
and wait
and wait
and wait
for the big sale
maybe a small sale or two along the way
and then the big sale and the avalanche
and then the utility incentive/rebate/loan
programs starting up
there could be more in the climate speech today as well
http://news.yahoo.com/obama-lay-climate-change-plan-speech-tuesday-044954622.html;_ylt=A2KJ2PbD9sZR.WwA8MrQtDMD%20%20target=
the CO2 reduction targets have already been announced, but there may be other components to the plan that the president intends to implement by executive order
mrtx said he knew something outside the company
that would impact all electricity saving products
if i understood correctly
the state of tx has big energy industry
that tries very hard to stay inside what the admin might do
so maybe tx or one of his friends is or knows a player in the
energy govt relations field
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/06/25/obama-emissions-energy-stocks/2455167/
a put on coal might have been a better way to play this
we could see utilities scrambling to set up
incentive programs to get their demand down
to meet these targets
wont happen overnight i would think
millions have traded in the low 4s havent they?
that is not necessarily over just because it
paused today. also, our presence on the breakout
board may attract a trickle of buying by
new investors.
but that 100 share bid whack shows clearly
someone is trying to get the price down right now
the only reason to do that is if you want to buy
possibly to replace shares you borrowed for a short sale
or
maybe they just want to swing trade
and short sell and sell to lower the price
and then buy back again and repeat
if you are seller, understand that there are some on this board who would purchase, but only if it appears there is not a lot of selling pressure at low prices - they want it to run to .008 or higher on a million or two in volume
so you might want to consider holding out for a higher price
BIG PICTURE the long term prospects for GDGI seem very good
i encourage potential investors to think of it as something different than a pink sheet stock. most others have a lot more shares out, often multiple rounds of dilution, and very nebulous assets, not proven technology with hundreds of thousands in sales, patents, and epa endorsements.
they have an EPA endorsement along with endorsements from top technical school Harvey Mudd as well as one from Tulane University who studied their patented precooling technology and found that it indeed saves 20 to 30% of electric costs. it also increases the life of compressors.
they have several successful smallish paid installations of their commercial system as well as several tests for huge clients, and, despite their success with residential cool and save - landing a rebate program NV electric utilities etc, have focused on developing the commercial version, which costs around $20k or so for a big roof top unit and has a two year payback. (contrast with the $200 or so price point of residential)
you can see their financials on OTC indicate that they have 2.8 million in debt, but 2 million of this is gone because the people they supposedly owed the money two were convicted of fraud. you can see links to SEC confirming this debt has been invalidated and the company exonerated. the fraudsters had some kind of pump and dump scheme that tarnished the reputation of the stock, although the CEO was ruled a victim rather than a co-conspirator. the current CEO was not around when the levy deal was started. and they only have 800 k i debt. very low cash burn.
they diluted once last year (that is where you see the price fall off dramatically) and have since pledged not to dilute in a formal statement that expired last march, but have informally committed to continuing. they have stopped informal communications, possibly because they were not staffing up a fully lawyered up investor relations person and they just went to the SEC to exonerated, which was probably scary.
they have a bunch of smaller sales as well as tests with big companies and possible multiple unit sales which they at one point continued to tell stockholders they thought were coming very soon, but since then have perhaps realized that instituational ( and latin american institutional ) very soon is different that what a lay person might expect.
they are clamped down on expenses and have sold to a big telcomm in Korea that has huge cooling needs and might expand and have inked a royalty deal with an asian distributor who could fill these needs and send them money, literally while they slept.
the company could do nothing and start raking in money. they could cling to survival while they work the ongoing deals they have. they could lock in the potential 18 unit sale with a city in florida that an investor noticed! they could sell 100s in CR or MX to banks and chain bix box stores. they already have a big casino in MX.
any of that could happen any time.
read the board and see if you can find any real reason it should be right now. i would be excited to hear about that. but either way, the long run prospects for this stock are excellent. you might get it a little cheaper if you wait a month or three, but it might go 10x by then.
a single big sale (and potential for such as sale with korea telcom, banks in CR, sorianan in MX has been announced) could yield as much as a million dollars in marginal profit, leading to a valuation of at least 10 million, possibly 100 on anticipated earnings, yielding a share price of 5 to 50 cents.
GDGI
good day to get in
cause according to at least one highly self recognized expert this is a special time of year for stocks, so they may be strategically planning to announce any developments around now
and someone who says they are inexperienced in penny stocks says external factors will cause awareness to increase in june and bet $36 k on it (hang in there and dont be parted from that money like the guy in the adage!)
and people say we are due for news because it has been a while
and some people say maybe their silence indicates a buyout is underway!
also several touts have announced their intention to tout, and one of them could be talking about GDGI, if it elimiantes energy bills and includes Barclays and Blackrock as share holders.
so clearly there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic
ahem
i like the ones based what the company has to offer and what they have achieved so far more so than the ones about the prospects for short term movement based on our current circumstances
i am pretty sure that is 1000 shares short SELLING not short covering. i also think you knew that and just slipped right?
37k to .0056 for green day for GDGI
this .004 seems to be NITE tomfoolery
buying and selling to itself
less than $1,500 in buying takes this over a penny
at current asks
of course we would likely see a couple more pop up there with that movement
but still, that is tight
GDGI has maybe 20 or so stockholders that are long longs and not much of the float is in weak hands now it would seem
107k to go to one penny. squeeze? hold tight!
remember - i think this end of june deadline for news that may be in some people's minds may be based on ONE posters' opinion about some general news impacting the stock, and that poster is like me a self professed newcomer to pink sheets i believe
so it is not like the whole value of the company rests on the end of june news thing being true or false. i recommmend urrbody relax and stick around.
i bet you would indeed hate that!
you would likely be selling into a dip of your own creation
dont dig a hole to throw your stock into if it is past july 1
stick around for the good part!
GDGI - current tightly held, squoze? general news soon. long term prospects remain bright.
someone predicted somethign would happen other than big sale or merger that would enhance visibility and prospects for this particular green tech, evaporative pre cooler with patents, tests, epa endorsements, happy clients, pending big sales, low debt, low float, tightly held.
they predicted that while suddenly buying $36,000 worht of shares
a cuopel months ago and predict news by around end of june
at the same time, there has been some short selling and loyal longs are pushing the price up away from the shorts trying to cover
so there may be further squeeze on the way
especially if people hold on for some possible news
i dont think the june news is likely to be a super big deal, but even so, any news could provide some buying pressure, and with people holding tight, the stock could rise a lot on very low buying pressure, generating a lot of attention and bringing in the volume to sustain a price in the pennies
regardless, they have patents, a working product that they have sold (more so the commerical than home unit) and large deals pending in other hotter countries. debt is 2milloin less than it used to be, only 800k total and they have all those patents. only 250 million shares out and they have stood firm on dilution promises and currently say no plans for dilution.
so wait for the big news. enjoy the ride along the way. if you are not bought in yet and have money you can risk, the upside potential for a single big sale is 1 million in net revenue from sales, portending future revenue of lets say 10 million a year, so at 10 to 1 price to net profits of sales, glossing over their small admmin costs, about 100 million, so around 40 cents a share.
that is a 100 to 1 return and i think this company, with basically zero costs, an entirely commisioned salesforce of dealers with other business ac business relationships to leverage, sooner or later they wil take off. at least they have better than 1 in 100 chance, so the expected value, on the back of an envelope is positive. i would guess they have a better than 50 50 shot to stick around and if they do, very good chance of 20 cents or more in the next year or two, possibly 40.
it could be a wild ride to get there.
maybe mr tx will share his insight with a friend
that could bring in some major bid support
if mr tx's thing still looks likely and now
with less time to wait til news
a hypothetical mr tx friend could follow
him with lower risk time risk
not necessarily
if no one will sell much under the new price,
we might see pretty low volume for a while
until we get some news
but the price wont necessarily fall back
it will if the buying pressure lets up and people
are still insisting on selling a trickle
but that will not necessarily be the case
lil short squeeze coming maybe
hold the line unless you really need the money
and this could get a nice lift
albeit a temporary one
we might alight at a slightly higher floor price
on the way down from the squeeze as we wait for news
it proves the low float and loyal investors
will make this thing expensive to get into
once it starts to move
fyi etrade does not allow short selling pinks:
"Limitations on OTCBB and Pink Sheets orders
No short selling allowed."
from their site
any idea on days to cover?
thanks wisebuys!
wow!
are you sure those were short sales?
i dont know if OTC mkts is a reliable source
but they indicate zero short volume
and i dont think ETRADE lets anyone short pinks
i think you have to go to a specialty broker
or perhaps even one of the market makers for the pink in question
to short a pink, but i am not sure
http://www.otcmarkets.com/stock/GDGI/short-sales
shows no short sales since april
but it looks like maybe the reporting is aggregated
to bi monthly
anyway, i think it is possible the sales were not short sales
and not necessarily based on information
but rather lack of new information and impatience
now i do. but i am pretty sure at 4:08 it was still showing .0035 weird
not showing that on etrade
8 minutes after the bell
odd
that sucks
hope it is on the other platforms
yeah, EZ english is the levys and that debt goes away
they have another 800k in debt
that we might hope their creditors will be wisely patient
about instead of insisting on tryna squeeze blood from a stone
power companies in many areas and countries do not want you to use more power, and especially not during peak hours, which means AC hours. some utilities do not want to have to expand peak production and many utilities, whether out of true loyalty to their obligations as a quasi public power provider, or whether because they have to meet performance benchmarks or follow regulatory requirements, have programs to encourage consumers to conserve. it could be better, but electric utilities are way different from oil producers.
GDGI's CNS product can be a major boon to a utility facing a need to increase peak power. if incentives (govt/utility backed financing so instead of 2 year payback, its one month payback with a bridge loan) were there, instead of spending all that money building a bigger plant and then burning more petrochemicals to generate more power, they could just guarantee loans and let their customers know that after a 2 year waiting period of paying back the loans, they would get 20% off their AC bill or more.
and indeed, a utility in Nevada gave and maybe still gives a rebate for installing residential cool and save!
Denmark and Germany - major jobs from green energy
if our congress can be humble enough to look east for an example, we can see spending on green energy and the jobs it creates and the end of reliance of fossil fuel (just look at eletric, denmark EXPORTS green energy, germany has geenrated up to half their electricity)is better than sitting back and watching big oil buy the government and doom the planet.
imagine if we had a JKF for the environment, We choose to go to the 100% renewables in these 2 decade and do the other things. Not because they are easy, but because they are hard.
thi Ayn Rand society we have now is a weak society. it doesn't choose to do things because they are hard.
passing a green tax credit bill should not be so hard, given republicans supposedly like taxes, but they will oppose anything a kenyan muslim says
i am not saying he would not want to
i am saying his wanting to would not necessarily
translate in his ability to
i dont doubt the market would react somewhat to an announcement
regarding stimulus spending, the people who claimed to prove indebted governments should not spend on public employment to stimulate the economy were shown to be charlatans, if you have been following the news
it doesnt stop a lot of people from saying we can't raise taxes and we must cut spending on the poor and elderly and jobs and other money that goes right into the economy, creating demand and hence jobs
it could be that congress will recognize the few expert on the side of austerity were lying, but i believe the republicans are "ideologically" committed to their beliefs about the economy and will stick to them against all evidence, so i would expect a lot of opposition to a green tax credit bill, even though republicans like cutting taxes, they like to do it for big oil and rich people, because that is free market. MOST of the green energy companies that got stimulus money were successful, but thanks to fox news, people just think of a single example of failure and a big portion of the electorate (<---) ahem go for that and will oppose green subsidies for whatever dimwitted reason fox gives them.
i thought we found nothing. what was found?
the apparent space change was just them being horrible at editing/using wordprocessing and cutting and pasting addresses and spaces. as i said, the moved from chem to prodcer and then back to chem, taking the square footage and 3 yr lease with them to one building. or they copied stuff wrong. similar to the mystery of the entire float on the bid if you ask me.
was there anything else in the report.
someone said why spend money an a PR> i dont think it is a PR and i dont think the filing fee is big once it is prepared and if you already paid your lawyer to sign off on it once and you change a couple lines, you might not have to pay the lawyer much for the second sign off
i dont think shurik is wavering in his support for GDGI
i think he just finds it odd that a person having $36k and being willing to spend it was first on your list of reasons to stay in GDGI
i am pretty sure it is not actually your top reason for confidence
my confidence was initially bolstered cause i thought MrTx both had $36k and spent it and knew something about an imminent sale that made him feel certain it would go through
now that i know that mrtx is more likely responding to a perceived change in general energy efficiency market conditions
his having $36k to gamble on this does not make him an expert on the outcome, especially given his professed lack of expertise
i am glad he is aboard, and i am glad as steve says we are community of longs (although some of us are talking about getting out before the end of the year or before fall if something does not happen) but i do not think putting down a $36k play makes mrtx a magic oracle, just another gambler like the rest of us
you can take the CEO out of huntington,
but you can't take the huntington out of the CEO
relocate to Alabama and do a reverse
beverly hill billy somewhere rents are real real cheap
there's a reality opportunity with legs,
although i am not betting on that or shark tank
or news by july
i am betting on a company that can languish on CE
until they get their patented EPA endorsed 2 year payback
technology purchased for a chain of facilities
possibly with financing even as shown on their website
so the payback on capital outlay would be much less than two years
and company now has failry low debt for what they own
all the patents and only 800k in the hole
so that is very real potential. i have to let myself realize
there is still an IF. the company is not really executing on any kind of scale with like 2 people or whatever, but they have a bunch of affiliates who sell AC trying to sell this i gather. if one of these authorized dealers can break through, or the asian royalty partner starts going, this stock should go up 10 to 100 times over.
even after july i will still believe they have a better than 1 in 10 chance of succeeding by far. i hope i am not deluding myself when i say better than 50.50. we know they have some happy customers already. and epa and harvey mudd and tulane. so....
wait for it.
should be clear by july? from the point of view of probability? why is it probable that the purpose of the (almost certainly illusory) increase in warehouse space will be revealed by July?
i dont think i have information that allows me to conclude likely timing of a sale, and possible effect of guessing with an equal mixture of blindness and confidence is that you will convince yourself (or other readers) that if it does not happen by x date it will never happen and consequently precipitate a sale, a sale that i think would be premature.
i know why i think it will succeed sooner or later. i dont know why i should believe it will succeed sooner.
i sure want to, and i was going with mr tx thinks so, but since it is apparently based on something that is not directly about the company, a rising tide for energy efficiency will lift some boats more than others.
i wonder if an enterprising person could make an exchange traded fund of penny energy efficiency stocks.
still headed for CE
that was not the 10q
that was a revision of the annual report
the 10q is late and getting later
why?
i can think of a likely answer
based on dec 31 they had $350
and since then have not announced any new revenue
quite possible they cant afford to prepare report right now
so brace yourself, we could be in the doldrums for a while
under CE with no sales pressure and an occasional million share defector pushing the price way down momentarily
til it gets smacked back up on light trading
til the sale comes
and then start moving that decimal point
or a small sale comes so they can file and we stabilize and wait some more