Why do people think a buyout is probable?
Is it because the company, which had $350 in the bank in December, and said a big sale was coming soon in January, and then did not announce a big sale in March when they released their financials and said they had a new royalty deal in asia and were continuing to develop potential clients or something to that effect,has since then not announced the very soon in january big sale, nor any royalty revenue and has also said nothing and also missed a filing?
I suppose that COULD be an indicator of a buyout
but if those factors make a buyout probable,
I would guess the pinks are teeming with near-dormant
companies that are probably going to get bought out
based on similar situations.
I very much doubt that is the case.
I think the most probable explanation of why they have said nothing since march is that the situation remains the same: they have said nothing because at the moment they have nothing new to say and no money to say it with.
I think they said very soon in January because they thought they would have a deal very soon. And since then they have shut up about it because 1) when you go the SEC to testify, your lawyer says stop breaking the law by talking to individual stockholders about material non public information and 2) they now know that they are subject to the universal human condition: they don't know. Pretty basic, but i guess we all learn that at some point and until we learn it, we dont know it.
I think it is most likely that they continue, with a very thin and perhaps unpaid corporate staff, to seek to complete some sales they had underway, and they continue to hope that their partner in asia makes sales and pays royalties and they continue to hope that their authorized dealers makes sale.
They still have a great product, a great share structure, and, having shed the pernicious influence of the Levy's, a strong commitment to preserving shareholder value eschewing the cycle of exaggerated claims and dilution that are typical of pink sheet stocks.
Lucky for swing traders, while the company won't hype, there are plenty of message board commenters who will say things like: the company will probably be bought out soon.
If that is better than a 50/50 shot, i am Mary Queen of Scotts
It is certainly not impossible though
Sadly, we cannot know the true underlying stochastic figure, only the outcome, so the question of my royalty will remain unanswered even when the company is or is not bought out by year end.
Sigh.
