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That sales rate is amazing. I think the combo of more working from home and big layoffs are going to be a problem for the auto industry. The stimulus cks, high unemployment pymts and delaying layoffs to get loan forgiveness are all going away. That should take a big bite out of future auto sales but we'll have to see. American consumers are diehard car nuts.They love new cars.
Sorry haven't followed rare earth stocks.
paldf +.04 to US$14.98 North American Palladium is one of the few pure palladium miners in the world. They have struggled to be profitable UNTIL
Palladium rallied to all time highs in the past year. Palladium is used almost exclusively in gasoline catalytic converters. It's a relatively rare metal and supplies worldwide are scarce. Year ago prices were around $1600/oz and now rising to $2300. All time peak in 2019 was 2700+.
Obviously the good times have been good to North American Palladium and they have done the right thing and paid off debt. Not going to see them building a new mine, there just aren't many palladium mine prospects. So what you see is about what you're going to get. Buying this stock is a pure bet on palladium prices. With auto industry about to hit a brick wall, I would be cautious. You're not overpaying at about 10X earnings but you need palladium to rise to all time highs to get much more from earnings from North American Palladium. They might be a candidate for a bigger miner to buy them out but that's always hard to predict.
Buffet blesses the sector. Buffet always says he only invests in things that he can understand........ Money printing BAD, sound money GOOD!
We'll see how long it lasts. There is an obvious reason for Buffet to reduce his bank positions. They've been a foundation of his holdings because Banks represent a picture of how the real economy is doing.
I think even eternal American economic miracle optimist Buffet knows that we are going to go thru a rough patch when all the stuff hits the fan. The FED and Congress have suspended all the stuff but it's still there. Delinquent credit cards, delinquent mortgages, bankruptcies........They are all waiting in the wings. And the banks are standing right in front of the fan waiting to get hit.
When was the last time gold miners really did well?
The Big One. The great Depression.
Maybe the Oracle sees a BIG Pothole in the road?
elygf/ely.v +.12 to US$1.37 +9.6%
not sure if Ely Gold is rallying hard due to end of selling pressure OR good drill results from Wallbridge on their Fenelon property. I bought a few thousand shares last Friday at US$1.08 so the rebound has been significant in spite of the sharp selloff in gold. I think Ely is a keeper for the next few years as the gold bull will allow more and more of their developmental properties to turn into producing mines. That's the beauty of the royalty model.
https://www.juniorminingnetwork.com/junior-miner-news/press-releases/1134-tsx/wm/82197-wallbridge-reports-strong-gold-intersections-from-area-51-at-fenelon-highlighting-significant-underground-resource-potential.html?utm_source=newsletter_898&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=junior-mining-brief-for-date-b-j-y
Royalty stocks are tangential and many investors don't make the connection between good PR from one of their partners and ELY.v. The correction today could have more downside for gold so I don't think it's surprising that ELY is down. Look at the last year for ely. There are plenty of profits being held and it's not surprising that some holders are selling to protect those profits.
Everything nowadays seems to happen at warp speed so maybe this correction will be short lived too. I sold most everything so I put some stink bids in on elygf and sil options.
Will be watching gold and silver prices very closely from now on.
elygf/ely.v -.09 to US$1.12
Ely Gold Royalties has been selling off after reaching a near term peak of US$1.54 on 7/1/20. Apparently Bil Sheriff has been selling some of his stake, which he got in 2017 from selling some of his mining claims to Ely.
Watched a presentation from Trey Wasser, CEO, this morning and feel better about Ely going forward. They announced a new purchase of 3 royalties from a veteran Nevada prospector. In addition, Wasser answered my big question about their Fenelon/Wallbridge Mining royalty. I have searched the Wallbridge presentation and couldn't find any mention of production while Ely has been showing royalty income from Fenelon in previous presentations.
Wasser explained that Wallbridge had wanted to apply for another bulk mining permit in order to drive their shaft deeper to drill underground and understand and document their deposit more clearly. However authorities didn't want another bulk mining permit and told them to apply for a small mining permit. That permit is being processed and will likely be approved by year end 2020. Wallbridge is ready to mine up to 500tpd as soon as the permit is issued because they had already built a facility to process their previous bulk mining permit. So Ely is anticipating Fenelon going into a low level of production in 2021.
Wasser said that Wallbridge didn't want the market to judge them as a small producer because their medium term goal is to be a 100K+ oz producer. So they have nothing about production on their website.
We should find out in a few months if Wallbridge is going into production after their permits are approved. Wallbridge released a very rich hole today also. 24 gm/tonne over 15 meters!!
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wallbridge-intersects-24-61-g-113000192.html
I expect Ely Gold Royalties to continue to appreciate. Wasser said in the presentation that they have outperformed every other royalty company over the past 18 months. I think the upside is still substantial and a low risk way to play the ongoing gold bull market.
No, we hire them to help us renegotiate our debt. They have way more experience at it than us.
And they can advise us on what to do with our worthless bills. Imagine all the cute doilies you could sell made out of $20 bills.
Wonder if we're getting close to a short term top. Silver up really strong(over 4%) and miners are flat to down. Can trees grow to the sky???
HL +.24 to 6.66
Hecla posted Q2 earnings loss of $14 million but made a small profit after adjustments. I am looking forward to Q3 when Hecla should break clearly into profits. They already did well in Q2, using cashflow of around $61 million to paydown debt from 200 to 50 million on the credit line AND retain $67million in cash.
Q2 avg prices received were $18.44 for silver and $1736 for gold. With the increases so far in Q3, Hecla should report dramatically higher revs and cashflow. I estimate $20 to 50 million extra dollars in cashflow for Q3, depending on avg prices received in Q3. That should boost gross revs to around $200million and cashflow close to $100million for the qtr, if current prices hold.
With Lucky Friday ramping up towards 3 million ounces/year, Hecla is a good safe way to play the silver boom. Safe jurisdictions and high silver production.
https://ir.hecla-mining.com/news-events/current-news/news-details/2020/Hecla-Reports-24-Higher-Revenues-on-Higher-Production-and-Prices-in-Second-Quarter-2020/default.aspx
So far, miners are not being valued fairly compared to exploding values of gold and silver.
If you take Hecla announced production for Q2 of 3.4 million oz of silver and 59,982 oz of gold and multiply those numbers by the INCREASE in silver and gold prices since Q2, you get a huge wave of $47million in extra cashflow coming in Q3.
Obviously we are less than halfway thru Q3 so both production and prices could change dramatically but investors really aren't giving producing miners credit for the huge increase in prices.
These are scars from the bear market but the longer prices continue up, the more investor attention and enthusiasm will increase mining stock valuations.
silver and gold popping hard today. Especially silver.
Gold spot price just under $2000 while silver popped up a buck to $25.50. The implications for actual producers are huge. Hecla preannounced Q2 production with ~3.4million oz of silver @ $16.33 and 59,982 oz of gold @ $1711.
If you substitute today's gold and silver prices with that production, cashflow is going to increase by something over $47million dollars in Q3.
Might not happen because we're less than half way thru Q3 and don't know average price Hecla will get but the increases have been tremendous for producers and may not be reflected in the miner's stock prices yet. Investors need to see the dramatic increases that are coming to revalue miners.
Hecla has a lot of shares outstanding at 527million so $47million in extra profits could add .09 to eps for Q3. Actual earnings for Q2 will come out by Thursday so we can judge the impact of the rise in gold and silver then.
congrats on nailing the top in SGI.v
Selling for C$.99 today, looks like you got C$1.50 on Monday. What a difference not being too greedy makes.
It's been a long time......His knees are arthritic, his hips are artificial , he has a pacemaker but he's still got SPIRIT!!!!!
Precious Metals Are Moving! The Gold Bug has come off the windshield!
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=rally+monkey+gif+with+song&docid=608027851364173883&mid=F13DF6323C4D2E836431F13DF6323C4D2E836431&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
OMG, we've been in a bear market for so long, I forgot about the rally monkey!!!!
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=rally+monkey+gif+with+song&docid=608027851364173883&mid=F13DF6323C4D2E836431F13DF6323C4D2E836431&view=detail&FORM=VIRE
AXU vs PGM.v
The winner, in my view is PGM.v. PGM.v has a market cap of C$873M or ~US$653M vs AXU market cap of US$409M. However I believe the bigger market cap is well deserved.
Pure Gold is focused on first production from their gold mine in Q4 2020, around the same time as the Alexco first production from their restart of their silver mine. However Pure Gold will be producing around 100K oz of gold vs 3 to 4 million oz of silver for Alexco.
The difference in gross revs is significant. 100K X $2,000= $200million vs 4 million X $24 = $96 million. Also remember that Alexco operated this silver mine before and had to suspend operations because it wasn't profitable enough. So based on near term projected operations, I would value PGM.v higher. We have to see the actual cashflow from each mine but I am guessing that PGM will win out.
The big prize for PGM.v is the POTENTIAL. Pure Gold is saying that their deposit is similar to their neighboring RED LAKE mine, formerly operated by Goldcorp. After they started mining the deposit at similar grades to the Pure Gold deposit, they drilled below 2,000 meters and struck really high grade gold and transformed Goldcorp into a premier producer. Once they get phase I up and running, that will be Pure Gold's main goal. They want to prove to the world that they have high grade gold that will multiply their cashflow and send the market cap into the billions.
Is it for sure? NO! But Pure Gold has several factors that lean in their favor. Their CEO used to be chief geologist on the RED LAKE mine. He is very familiar with the geology and considers it very similar. They have drilled one hole below 2,000 meters and it was a good high grade hole. Several big hitters have financed Pure Gold, believing that they will duplicate Goldcorp's drill results.
Alexco also has potential. The Keno Hill District had several of the highest grade silver mines in the world. However the mines were built many years ago and the silver mined out. Alexco is looking for new extensions of deposits or new deposits based on better technology now and better recovery techniques. I think they will become a major silver producer but I think PGM.v has bigger upside and better survivability due to it's focus on gold vs silver. Pure will have more time to find it's high grade gold due to the more stable price of gold.
That's my two bits. These are two good near term producers. Both have near term and future potential to get much bigger. Good luck.
re ELY.v I have noticed the underperformance also. I am only guessing but early buyers have tremendous profits in Ely AND the company has done multiple financings. I believe some of the early owners are cashing out and moving on to "hotter" plays. CEO mentioned that Rick Rule was up something like 10X on his purchases so I could see someone like that lightening up.
Ely also needs some good fundamental news. Their big ticket is Wallbridge Mining Fenelon deposit. This is very high grade and looks like it could be a monster mine. BUT I thought they would move beyond the initial trial mining and make a construction decision. Ely stated that they thought Fenelon would be in production in 2020. I have gone thru all the Wallbridge presentations and they never mention any potential mining date. Don't know if they are just drilling to get bought out or want to build up a BIG number of resource ounces but the lack of follow through from Wallbridge to production has been a disappointment to me.
Longer term, Ely is still a royalty company, which has a superior business model compared to normal miners. They are focused in Nevada and have lots of irons in the fire. They should do very well over time but seem to be struggling lately.
AXU +.21 to 3.04 Market cap is around 400 million. Not dirt cheap but will become a producer in late 2020. Should be 3-4 million oz producer from initial mine. The Keno Hill District has several prospects to expand production if silver continues to rise.
Alexco Resource (NYSEMKT:AXU) up 9.2% in reaction to receiving of a 17-year Water Use License for the Keno Hill Silver District, authorizing the company to source and use water as well as deposit designated waste streams into approved facilities in and around planned production centers at the Bellekeno, Flame & Moth, and Bermingham mines.
The company reaffirms to commence mine production and expect to be shipping concentrate in Q4 2020.
Alexco also announced that Michael Winn has resigned from AXU's board; he was a founding Board member of Alexco and served as its Chairman from 2006 through 2010 and again in 2015 to 2016; he will remain as a Strategic Advisor to the board.
AXU will release its Q2 2020 financial results on August 12.
premarket blastoff in gold and silver. We are overdue for a pullback but momentum may push us higher before a correction.
Banks will short gold and silver with more non existent metal but longer term, they could be in trouble this time. No end to federal spending in sight. Think of all the city, county, regional transit systems hemorrhaging cash that need help to stay afloat. The mortgages that are going to go into default, the evictions of families. This is going to get ugly pretty fast.
Don't cheer too much! Gold is going to a record in US$. That's not gold rising, it's our dollar falling due to the drunken sailor legislators and politicians that we have entrusted our currency to.
Gold is a thermometer measuring the stupidity of the power hungry rats we've elected.
July 17 silver was $19.50 and took off. Spiked to $23 on July 21st but couldn't hold it. Been much more volatile last three days with violent spikes up and down. The big question is whether this spike is going to hold or will silver step off the high board and do a 1 1/2 into the pool.
I'd guess a consolidation period with silver chopping around 21-23 before we have another move higher. Whether the FED will announce any more money printing is questionable before the election. Probably depends on how bad the economic news is. With some states having to restrict again, the harsh reality is going to start showing up. Layoffs will become permanent and more small businesses are going to give up.
Trump hasn't been selling his intentions correctly. He needs to lay the truth out there. He isn't ignoring medical advisers just because he's dumb, he's trying to walk the line between bankruptcies and deaths. It's not a good situation for a leader but he has to present the facts and let people know that we have to keep the economy moving or else. He needs to be a leader and tell people that there are hard decisions to be made and here is his plan. Maybe he doesn't have a plan. I don't know.
Outcrop Gold ocg.v/mrddf C$.69
This one has already zoomed from .08 to .69 this year. ~100 million shares out FD so market cap is around C$70million. That seems high to me for a property that they just acquired in 1/20. The drill results are high grade but narrow. Several are less than a meter wide, which most companies don't even report. BUT the grade in silver is very high, over 1,000gm/tonne in several cases. Not even an inferred resource. I'm not a big fan of narrow vein mining. This area has a history of mining but narrow vein mining can be hit and miss. Whether this will turn into a real mine is questionable.
BUT Eric Sprott thought it was worth $1million bucks and they now have the hype machine going so it could go up more, especially if silver really takes off.
I didn't like the executive compensation. This guy took $180K in 2018 and over 243K in 2019 when he had nothing. None of the other projects looks like anything. He just bought this one project in January and has been drilling, pumping and financing the hell out of it.
If I was Eric Sprott and I had billions, maybe I would spend 1 million on it. I'm not so unless you're a nifty trader, I would stay away until this guy produced at least an inferred resource. $70 million market cap is fairly substantial for what he has so far. Good luck.
This type of early developmental prospecting is not my cup of tea so I'm not going to get excited about most of these. The bear market has been hard on me so I have been sticking mostly with producers. That obviously colors my opinion so take my little peek at the company with a grain of salt.
silver blowing thru $21 means silver is in a bull market. Lots of catching up to do. I am sticking with big producers but juniors are starting to percolate.
FSM, Fortuna Silver Mines -.04 to $5.12
Fortuna is a billion + market cap producer, producing 8.8million oz of silver and 50K oz of gold in 2019. They could be on the cusp of a rerating. Fortuna has been building a new mine in Argentina for the past two years at a cost of 314million dollars.
The Lindero mine will produce 140-160 thousand oz of gold/yr. So Fortuna will move from a silver producer to a gold producer. Gold production generated about 65 million in revs for 2019. At today's prices, the projected revs from gold after Lindero is 200K X 1800 = $360 million.
Fortuna appears to have been hurt by the CV-19 more than some miners so it will be 2021 before the benefits show up in the bottom line but Fortuna was profitable with the existing production so Lindero should make a dramatic difference in 2021+.
https://www.fortunasilver.com/investors/news/2020/fortuna-reports-consolidated-financial-results-for-full-year-2019/
https://www.fortunasilver.com/investors/news/2020/fortuna-commences-stacking-ore-on-the-heap-leach-pad-at-the-lindero-gold-project-argentina/
HL +.20 to $5, Hecla is up strong for the second day. Production report must have leaked as yesterday stock was up over 10% early.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hecla-reports-strong-production-cash-093000631.html
Bought some HL 9/20 options with $4 strike yesterday at .49. Expecting silver to outperform in the short term.
Hecla is run pretty conservatively and this has probably helped them in the short term. They reduced line of credit to $50 million from $200 and expect to payoff by year end. They still had $67million cash after paydown, signaling strong cash generation. Silver production was up 13%, while gold was only down 1%, in spite of their two Mexican mines being closed for much of Q2.
PGM.v/LRTNF +.27 to C$2.21
Pure Gold is definitely not cheap but a great combo of fundamentals and sizzle.
Should pour first gold this December. Phase I will be a 100K producer with over 2 million oz of resource.
But the big question is whether their Pure Gold Red Lake Mine has the same rocks as the nearby Red Lake mine run by Evolution. When Goldcorp drilled below 2,000 meters at Red Lake, they hit super high grade ore that multiplied the returns and basically built Goldcorp. Pure Gold have one hole at 2100 meters that is solid. Once the mine is producing, they will have cashflow and time to drill deeper and find out if the dream is true.
CEO was formerly chief geologist at Red Lake Mine and believes the high grade deep gold is there. Nice thing is, you can afford to speculate because you will have a nice 100K producer in a few months with cashflow.
Of course, there is always risk in new producers but the mine has already produced 2 million oz so the rocks shouldn't be the problem.
https://puregoldmining.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/presentation/file_upload/Pure_Gold_Slides_June_29_2020_Final.pdf
gold moved above $1800/oz and silver is above $19/oz
Will the FED print more money? YES!
Will it solve the problem? NO!
Do they have any more tools? that work? NO!
When will the printing end? NEVER!
Will the music stop? Eventually!
Who will pay for for all the drunken sailor spending? US citizens.
Will the idiots in charge pay? NO! They will legislate themselves a parachute.
GDXJ, SIL are good gold and silver proxies. ELY.v/ELYGF is a small royalty company that should double/triple from here.
ely.v/elygf +.11 to US$1.47
Ely Gold Royalties was best performing royalty company in June 2020.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4357044-precious-metals-royalty-and-streaming-companies-june-report
Unemployment report....
The source of all this euphoria???
I thought this story late Friday would wake people up but NO!
BLS admits they have a glitch and unemployment rate is probably over 16% NOT 13%. It's in the original report buried in the fine print.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/05/heres-why-the-real-unemployment-rate-may-be-higher-than-reported.html
Figured it would be priced into the market on Monday morning. Slept in and surprise! More rally.
I was disappointed in the sale of Northern Empire. I felt like the drill results must not have thrilled MGMT otherwise they would have kept drilling and held on for higher prices. They seemed to have so many opportunities but they did get Coeur to buy them out.
This looks similar, several existing/previous mines nearby and good early results. Drill results soon. Climate much more positive for gold mining and Nevada is the hot location.
ELYGF/ELY.v + .16 to US$1.33 +13.68%
LRTNF/PGM.v + .05 to US$1 +5.49%
Ely Gold Royalties and Pure Gold Mining continue climbing today.
Ely has been on fire lately. They recently did a financing AND had warrants exercised so they are flush with cash and are out buying royalties. I had been hoping that the Wallbridge Mining would announce that they will build the Fenelon Mine after a successful 18,500 tonne bulk sample but I cannot find any info that they expect a build decision in 2020. They have announced aggressive drilling programs in 2020 and 2021.
Regardless, the market is still excited by the high grade potential of the mine AND their recent acquistion of Balmoral Resources really added to their land positions around the Fenelon mine site.
Pure Gold Mining is building a new mine in Quebec and has been especially active in appearing at conferences and updating the market on their progress. They have recently reiterated that they expect first gold pour in late 2020.
following Eric Sprott
ELYGF/ELY.v Ely Gold Royalties has been on a tear. Last quote US$1.11
Sprott has been buying shares in private placement and doing business with Ely, selling them a royalty. Since he's involved in so many financing deals, he undoubtedly can steer some business to Ely. The prize royalty in their portfolio is on the Fenelon mine being developed by Wallbridge Mining. Naturally Sprott is a major shareholder there also. Sprott owns 34% of Ely if he exercises all warrants. Ely.v was at C$.17 a year ago and is currently selling for C$1.53.
PGM.v/LRTNF C$1.30 Pure Gold Mining is building a mine in Red Lake District. Set to pour gold in Q4 2020. Mgmt thinks this has the same rocks as the Red Lake mine operated by Evolution Mining. Pure Gold currently has about 2.5 million oz of resource but hasn't drilled deep yet. That's where the original Red Lake mine found high grade ore. Pure Gold was C$.38 a year ago and currently selling for C$1.30. Rise in US$ vs C$ means that Pure will have higher revs and lower costs.
Glad you got some deals. Premiums are very high right now. I also found that website, findbullionprices.com. I got a couple of deals on Queens Beast 2 oz silver coins in the last couple of months. They weren't cheap at between $18 and 20/oz but I like the series and they are selling for more like $25 to $30/oz on ebay so I'll hang on.
I have some of the First Majestic 10 oz bars. Not sure how well known they are and whether you could sell them easily in a crisis. If all hell breaks loose, not sure what would happen to silver/gold. Guns/ammo/water/food may be more important if things really go south. But I do have both gold and silver so I guess I'm hoping for a financial crisis but not a full blown depression/society breaks down crisis.
re: airline travel
I think it's too early to tell if airline traffic will come back. I think domestic travel will bounce first as the economy reopens. The lack of lines will encourage some business travel first.
Also remember that Hertz applied for Chapter 11 bk. That means they are holding off creditors while staying in business. So I would say that if they saw no hope, they would have filed chapter 7 right off the bat. May still end up in Chapter 7 liquidation but no now.
pgm.v/lrtnf +.15 to C$1.19 +14%
Another big day for Pure Gold Mining. Eager anticipation for late 2020 startup of mine plus drilling that confirms company belief that there is much more gold in surrounding area AND deeper.
It was a good qtr considering part of qtr was reduced by CV-19 restrictions. Biggest change for company is whether their hostile acquisition is successful.
Pure Gold Mining.. PGM.v/LRTNF +.08 to C$1.04 +8.33%
Pure Gold is a near term producer. They are building a new mine in the Red Lake District in Canada. The mine currently has over 3 million ozs if you include all known resources. Red Lake is home to some of the world's best gold mines. In the past, grades have improved as the mines go deeper. Don't know yet if that applies to Pure Gold but that would be a tremendous kicker to the company's value, since they are already #5 in Canada in terms of grade.
https://www.puregoldmining.ca/sites/default/files/uploads/presentation/file_upload/Pure_Gold_May_15_2020.pdf
Company says they are on track to pour gold by Xmas 2020.
Lots of shares out at 436 million shares FD. Market cap is around US$300 million. So not really cheap but this is a near term producer with substantial upside due to the size of the deposit, grade and potential higher grade at depth. The Red Lake district is famous for being the heart of the rise of Goldcorp. Pure has several famous investors who believe in their story. Eric Sprott, Rob McEwen, Newmont Gold and Anglo Ashanti are big investors who obviously think the potential larger size has merit.
Goro needs Isabel to produce gold. 3+ thousand oz in Q1 didn't help Q1 financials. They need to ramp up hard to hit their 40K/yr runrate. Company said in earnings call that they are just getting into higher grade zone. Gold price is much higher and they are not getting base metal prices to offset mining costs vs previous years. So they need Isabel to perform according to their forecasts in order to make up for poor base metal prices. Isabel won't increase company cashflow as much as I thought but it's their only hope now to show improved cashflow and some earnings.
I think the attraction of shale to the oil E&P's is pretty obvious. Each well is not that big but the hit percentage is extremely high. Why risk a $25-200 million dry hole with a 25-50% hit rate when you can hit 95% onshore in small increments?
Even if you hit offshore, you might have to spend another huge amount of money and time to hook up your well. Connection time onshore is days/weeks instead of years and cheap.
Of course, with current pricing, any new well doesn't look very good. We'll see how shale recovers from the current mess. I am guessing that E&P's will crank up shale as soon as prices move up. The best shale acreage has been tied up so shallow offshore may look more appealing rather than try marginal shale acreage.
re: Canada Nickel. mgmt looks like winners, jurisdiction is excellent, size of deposit looks good but grade is at the bottom of their chart for biggest deposits. Is that the reason that mining was stopped originally or did they really think deposit was exhausted?
Nickel does seem like a logical medium term metal to secure before the economy recovers. The risk is that battery makers change the makeup of the auto/home battery before the real boom in usage comes. After the extended bear market in metals, this could be a real long term winner but if cv-19 creates a real depression, will the long term matter?
Sounds like you opened a small position. I think that makes sense until we see the real impact of the pandemic on the world economy.