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Escroe - potential of $1m if they close, I heard
okay - that was a bit of Steven speak, and forward looking. Stick to the facts please. Don't guess, and miss every time
I like that a little ~ over 1000 enterprise upgrades in Q4 at whatever price that is.
Zen 88 - IMO they simply can't wait that long
To Everyone ~ Our story is about to unfold before our very ears, and eyes.
To that end, I expect our resolve to be tested later today. I believe the pendulum could swing either way for Q3, but also expect good times ahead. If you believe you've made a good investment, now is the time to hang tough and look for indications and insights to substantiate your investment against Wave's forward-looking statements.
I finally agree with Snackman, in that the next 2-qtrs. will tell us all a great deal about our investment. This quarter ~ maybe not.
All the best to you,
Tampa123
Robert I - Understood. But doesn't the company itself control the critical mass procurement and use of TPMs within its own enterprise?
awk - aren't you basing your numbers primarily off the Seagate relationship, and related timeline? If so, then I would agree with your numbers. However, there are also questions surrounding why enterprise upgrades taken by some of the trial prospects haven't materialized to elevate your Q3 number. I think that it is important that we get information on all fronts from here on out, and not just bank on Seagate's power alone to create revenue.
The Dell, Gateway, Fujitsu hockey stick is what I believe the $1.7 million is being based on ~ so in that regard, PC shipments are progressing, but not at the rate Steven expected there either (i believe), even though PC shipments across the board are hitting record highs this year.
Lots to listen to. Lots to validate. Lots to discuss.
p.s. I'm not trying to suggest that Accenture or HP are SIs for Wave, and I should have designated them as examples. So please don't anyone assume that these are real SIs for Wave.
Even though if Wave was a white hot ticket, they all probably would be
Dory _ I agree with you, and now is the right time for all of that to come to the forefront of Wave's priority list. I also agree that some of our partners (Seagate more specifically) has found a way (even if Wave gets credit too) to monetize a portion of Wave's business model ~ and that's very good.
For this I am excited over the possibilities in the next quarter, and thereafter. Where I'm still less excited is in the facts that:
1. We've had a relationship with Intel and Dell for quite a long time now, and don't see the hockey curve following the normal path that Steven's explained on several prior occasions. It might be 1-quarter behind, and I hope that's true. But if it's not, this has become a portion of Wave's business model that has passed the point of "tell-me" and is well into the "show me" phase. So far ~ not revving to my expectations, or previously stated CFBE remarks.
2. We've been trialing, tribulating and all out pushing enterprise upgrades (in production) for the past year now. There is no one that tests for that long. Probably more true is that I do not know of many companies that would let another company trial something for 1-year without buying, or moving on. So this is another extremely critical CC item of interest. If we don't see revenues coming from this channel, then it tells me that Wave's Remote TPM Management SW is being met with some resistance. That doesn't mean "bad for Wave" in the mid, to long run. It might mean that companies still haven't been convinced to turn on their TPMs, and begin using/managing them. If that's the case, one good lawsuit from someone (like one of us) who has their personal information stolen from a large company, and already knows that security capabilities exist in most PCs today ~ and aren't being used, will take care of that problem. So while I'm not severely worried as to whether this will ultimately succeed, I do admit to being a bit perplexed as to why it's not being sought-out and used by several (10s if not 100s) of companies (Fed and commercial) already.
Even if the contracts aren't being announced for security reasons, the revenue still needs to be reported by Wave in the right bucket. This are should have already taken off (somewhat) by now ~ and we haven't seen it. This is an important part of Wave's business model.
Finally, I want to see something (revenue, orders) coming from all of the TPRs, and I want to see some SIs (EDS, Accenture, HP, DELL) and other marketing/partnering relationships begin to produce something tangible for Wave ~ Revenues that can be announced.
OItherwise, we've still got a ways to go. I don't mind this if I know why it's taking this long, and what's being done to accelarate it. If I hear nothing about it ~ that's when my mind wonders...
Let's just hope it doesn't take a lifetime to see it happen
No I don't think that. I think they look at it as an underperforming stock for 13-years, and while there may be interest in the security sector ~ they look at Wave as completely unproven, and likely to be either taken out for pennies on the dollar, or losing market share to some behemouth in the end. The longer Wave waits, and depends on others to prove this wrong, the more right the street gets IMO.
Absolutely no reason to invest from almost any traditional investor you could speak to. It's only us that believe, or hope.
Boy I wasn't too far off
Posted by: tampa123
In reply to: howard2242 who wrote msg# 153622 Date:10/29/2007 8:46:44 AM
Post #of 153866
howard2242 - will probably languish in the $1.60s to barely into the $1.70s, and end the week close to $1.55 - $1.59 range. Almost any PR (1-2 exceptions) on demonstrations or partnering events will only serve to send a "more of the same" message to the market, and the market will respond lower. An announcement dating the next CC may stabilize the SP for a day, or so, and might give it a slight boost, in anticipation of an extremely important revenue report.
How's that?
Mig - This must be the 1000th time you've posted buying more wavx stock, and now you couldn't get all that you wanted at $1.62
You need to change brokers, because I called mine, and could have gotten as much as I wanted at that price.
howard2242 - will probably languish in the $1.60s to barely into the $1.70s, and end the week close to $1.55 - $1.59 range. Almost any PR (1-2 exceptions) on demonstrations or partnering events will only serve to send a "more of the same" message to the market, and the market will respond lower. An announcement dating the next CC may stabilize the SP for a day, or so, and might give it a slight boost, in anticipation of an extremely important revenue report.
How's that?
x-point You wrote, in referring to the continued selling of the shares set aside:
"For me this approach to funding growth is greatly preferable to the taking on of debt"
I would agree. However, revenue production via the selling enterprise upgrades, and the predictability of Wave's take per PC as it pertains to Steven's BE comments is most preferable. It's time we stop giving Wave built in excuses for their own statements. The hockey stick affect that is supposedly happening was supposed to bring Wave more than
$1.4M / qtr. by now ~ by their own admission.
Am I mad? Yes ~ because I don't have anyone's word in Wave that I can rely on relative to performance (still). Who cares why we're not at $5 shr, when we already know why we're not even at $2, or at $3.
We all know why. It's because we haven't performed according to the stated business model, or per CEO projections. I would love to see things change this quarter, and I hope they do.
zen 88 - an accurate representation of the present indicates even more misses. We were supposed to be CFBE by Q3, and we're not there yet. We were supposed to have thousands, and then 10s of thousands of upgrade conversions. Do not see them. We were supposed to see a hockey stick event, such that, if it followed Steven's intial statements should have us making around $5 - 10M per quarter by now.
I didn't write my post with the intent to defend or argue, although I am fully qualified to do so if you persist. However, my only reason for the post was to voice concern that my investment is still at risk for all of the same reasons as 10-years ago. The only way to prove this wrong is to show revenues. I know you get it after 3-sentences ~ as do I get that one day everything's going to be great, and everyone will see Wave's master plan come to life soon, in 3-sentences. Soon is no longer soon ~ it's late
There's no question of the opportunity. No debates from here on that point. However, I believe that what you are all seeing from some long-time-longs who have fallen out of favor on this board (this includes me) is more to the last two specific points (highlighted) posted below:
Does this mean that Wave is, after so long a time, DOOMED to succeed? Not necessarily. That’s not my point. My point is that every assertion above is valid.
It doesn’t ensure Wave’s success, though. Trusted Computing CAN unfold at a pace that slowly strangles the company. Wave’s expertise (people) can, conceivably, be RECRUITED away or DUPLICATED.
I still contend that if I represent the opinions and sentiment of any Wave longs who post on this board, it is because I am still a Wave long ~ yet I grow concerned over the time it's taking to complete the journey.
Not because it's taken 12+ years (and counting) for the market to mature ~ and I thought it would happen sooner. And not because Wave hasn't done an excellent (yes I said excellent) job navigating its way into a commendable position (partners, industry, vision, technology) that every long (I can only hope) sees, and admires.
I am concerned for the very same reasons that this post eludes to. And that is, that even though Wave has positioned itself to potentially play a major role in the security evolution, they have not found a way to monetize it, such that:
- it can yet be articulated into a reasonably accurate forecast
- they are not forced to re-negotiate their revenue per PC, or per storage device over time
- the market has not yet made it a top priority.
For these reasons, I still contend that "Wave’s expertise (people) can, conceivably, be RECRUITED away or DUPLICATED", because,
1 Wave still seems dependant on the deployment and adoption schedule of others
2. Still viewed as a nice-to-have, instead of a must-have, or we'd already be seeing the share price go up.
3. Steven himself has proclaimed that he is perplexed over why this is not a priority.
In summary, there is no argument that what Wave has created is innovative, and visionary. There is no argument that without Steven, Wave wouldn't be where it is today (good or bad). There is no argument that Wave is definitely poised to be a significant player ~ although possibly not as significant as once imagined.
The argument simnply is that Wave still, after all these years, partners and accomplishments, CAN NOT articulate a reasonable, and defensible forecast.
All of their old, existing and new partners can. Until Wave can, then they are not (as you say) doomed to succeed. When they can, I believe that you will find that patience will be much easier to exercise.
If you are convinced that your INVESTMENT is going to be successful ~ that's great! And before you say it ~ I too am okay with the risk of losing my investment if things don't work out. But if they are to work out, then the questionable dot-connecting, all things being Wave on-topic when they really aren't, and the endless PR-chain that begin with "Wave will be demonstrating at ..." must be replaced with CCs and postings of a predictable and defensible revenue stream that proves it. The hockey stick timeline for TPM-enabled PC rollout is still happening for the partners. However, the adoption curve for enterprise upgrades isn't going according to plan.
No one is right to assume anything until it actually happens. We are all still risking our investments. We are all still left to wait and see. Although the industry suggests that this is no longer an if, but a when question ~ the same can not be said about the profitability of our investments. And that's what we're in this for really ~ is to turn a profit on our investment. At least I am.
EDS Gets $800M Homeland Security Deal
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070918/eds_contract.html?.v=1
Tuesday September 18, 6:09 pm ET
EDS Gets $800 Million Homeland Security Contract to Provide Security at Major Data Center
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Technology services provider Electronic Data Systems Corp. won an $800 million contract from the Homeland Security Department to run a major data center, a company spokesman said Tuesday.
No other public announcement was made by either the company or the department.
The terms of the deal include a 10-month base term with five one-year options, plus an additional two-year option to extend the length of the contract.
EDS will provide security at the second of two information technology processing system run by the department. The company declined to specify where the data center is located due to national security.
Shares of EDS fell 40 cents to $21.66 in after-hours trading, after shares added 42 cents to $22.07.
MAYBE WE'RE IN THIS SOMEWHERE.....There has to be access to this data center from somewhere.
likebarrels - It is my opinion that since Barracuda directly links itself to (and publicizes the existance of) encryption, and a security chip, you're going to see some privacy advocates and open Internet supporters indirectly put up a stink.
Pavlath - I would agree, and that is exactly why I was curious. So you read minds?
Anyone know how much working capital Wave has left from this last shelf registration stock sale? In other words, when will they need to sell more shares?
It's not just software ~ it's a continuously growing mindset that information (financial, healthcare, whatever) should be owned and managed by the consumer.
That mindset is (or lack of caring one way or the other) will drive the consumer market for Wave. Without that mindset, the cool security concept of Trust at the Edge will mean nothing to the average consumer.
Check out the Security and Privacy Page at this company's Web-Site.
http://www.wesabe.com/page/security
Doesn't it sound familiar?
Since I don't have PM, let me just say to all that this is intended to make you smile, and in no way has anything to do with good due-dilligence. I hope that you can all find the humor in it, and leave it at that. I will thank you in advance for your sense of humor, and leaving it stand.
T123
ZZT-Bone - There are some who understand completely where you are coming from. I've always found the "if you're not for us, then you should stop posting altogether" opinion to be very narrow-scoped for a public message board ~ a private board maybe not.
No matter what anyone may post to you (i.e. move on, why post anymore, etc.), all of them know that you invest to make money. They too invested in Wave to make money. However, after several years of bumping up against this, I've concluded that there are some who believe that waiting as long as it takes to make that money is fine with them, and that anyone who comes off negative on the board can only hurt investor sentiment, not help it. So in a way, there is a belief [although an unlikely truth], that negativity hurts the share price, because it serves to turn investor sentiment in a negative direction ~ and perhaps in some ways, the share price too.
While I don't have the strength, stamina or desire to debate this with anyone, I also know that none of us live forever. If we did, then waiting as long as it takes would go by as quickly as a blink of an eye in the overall scheme of this investment. Unfortunately, none of us do live forever, and waiting as long as it takes just isin't a good enough timebound paramenter for me. For example:
1. If every other stock in the world doubled in value over the past 7-years, while Wave lost everyone a fair percentage of their investment, would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment position?
2. If the investment in Wave was made 10-years earlier (1998) in the hopes that in 10-years the investment would help (in some way) pay for your children's college education, would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment position?
3. If you invested every spare penny of the family's money, and after 10-years your wife handed you your stock certificates, and said, "Any bank savings account could have done better than you've done" ~ Get Out! Would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
4. If your young children (who were, let's say 7-years old at the time) are now grown and make fun of you and your investment prowess, would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
5. If your long-time friends begin to talk about their investments, but then quickly turn to you and say, "Don't you say a single word Mr. Wave Septic Systems", would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
6. If your mother, now 75-years old, calls you every week and says, "But you told me that you'd pay me out of your own pocket if this investment didn't make me money", would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
7. If your stock broker now calls you only to remind you that you owe a $50-maintenance fee on all of your accounts, would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
8. If your Instant Messenger buddy list went from several hundred friends down to 3, and they were named Steven, Gerald and Lark, would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
9. If you saw Peter Sprague out on the street, and he invited you to join him for a dinner on YOU, would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
10. And finally, if you hadn't been to Las Vegas for the past 10-years, because you promised yourself that the next time you'd go would be to meet all of the other visionary investors (like yourself), and celebrate your wisdom, would waiting as long as it takes be a wise investment decision?
If the answer is YES to all of the above, then you truely are the kind of people this board appreciates most.
My very best regards
Tampa123
Yes - And we also caught the underpinnings of further education and convincing still required among the implementing and budgeting community.
The talk is definitely going in the right direction. The progress seems to be so very slow that no one knows what the tipping point needs to be. Of course, more dialogue, education and good press will definitely help. But so far, they've proven not to be enough.
We need something ~ ACTIONABLE
mundo - fair enough. I will gladly leave it in the past, as long as we don't see the past repeat itself (again). I believe that 3-4 quarters of enterprise upgrade trials without an order is simply too long.
This cannot also be dismissed simply because good prospects exist with Seagate either. IMO, they're not only mutually exclusive, but neither can be dismissed, or overwhelmed/subsumed by the other. They both need to stand on their own and produce in the next quarter (1-good order) for upgrades, and in the next 2-3 quarters for Seagate relationship to demonstrate meaningful trends.
The future is now..... next year no longer cuts it
ootommy ~ While this is not the popular consensus, or something that even some want to hear, I believe that it is possible that some investors (private, institutional) are growing very tired.
- Revenues have not met predictions or expectations ~ ever
- Cash flow BE still seems a ways off from what was stated
- Expenses are (again) rising even thogh the orders that Steven said would be a reason for this have not materialized
- The latest solution (i.e. Seagate, vs. Enterprise Upgrades, vs. SignOnline, vs. WXP, vs. E2100) always puts the latest and greatest ahead of its predecsessors as the one the BE timeline should be based on ~ why?
Many of us should listen to what Steven has been telling us about our investment. He doesn't care about share price. What that means to us is that we invested way too early, and that he should have built this business on someone elses money.
While our investment (longer term) still has great potential, we have simply thrown more good money at this investment than it deserved, and Wave has made much less progress/money (during the past 7+ years) than Steven led us to believe it would.
We are where we are ~ and Steven needs to start making Seagate and the upgrade licenses produce revenues, because there are no more delays that investors will tolerate IMO.
OT Weby - How about Wednesday evening, August 15th?
Repost to Snackman
I have thousands upon thousands of Wave shares ~ and have had since 1998.
You have often asked me why I stay in if I'm always so negative.
I stay in because I believe that Wave (and its leadership) have great vision, a great work ethic, a great opportunity, and actually, the best opportunity (based on my IT background and experiences) that I see in the marketplace. So I stay fairly well invested in Wave because of these reasons.
However, that doesn't mean that as an investor that I can't or shouldn't question Wave Management, and their ability to turn a good idea into increased shareholder value ~ within a reasonable period, and during a time when they still have a sustainable competitive advantage.
So far, they're still have that ~ but time is growing short IMO. while we've all been wrong in our predictions in the past, I believe very strongly that this year is the year that Wave MUST begin to prove, validate and solidify its business model with meaning customers/users of enterprise seat license upgrades, Seagate drive and server solutions, real revenue from their eSign Realtor channel, and appreciable revenue from WaveXpress. Not just one ~ all of them. Because that is what will validate everything that Steven has been saying.
He said even yesterday that he did not want to focus on one so much that he missed other opportunities that might be staring him in the face. Fair enough! But, I believe these opportunities I've just mentioned, if Wave is sieze them, are here ~ and here now!
If things are right with Wave ~ relative to what they've been saying, then I can't see why there should be any more delays in revenues from all of these channels. That is what will make us BE. That is what will bring new money rolling into Wave. Falling short of expectations (like the enterprise seat license upgrades) just doesn't cut it anymore. Still educating companies as to the benefits when you have partners like Dell, Microsoft, Intel and Gateway is an excuse in my opinion. And quite honestly, it is just my opinion.
I never asked you to agree with me. I only asked that I be allowed (as a long) to voice my opinions in my own way. Therefore, if I've convinced you of anything, it should be that even two people (you and I) who have invested a heck of a lot of money in Wave, can still be steadfast in their conviction, even if they don't express it in the same way.
That's up to you. Otherwise, I'm really not posting on this board to convince you, or anyone else of anything other than whatever I do post is my opinion ONLY!
License Upgrade Performance not planned in Steven's agenda
Why not?
Vader - RIGHT!
No
Yes, Depends
Yes, No
Yes, No
1. We've had no announcements ~ which means no upgrade contracts, and no major new OEMs
2. We'll get no news (I predict), and it depends on one's expectations I suppose. For those willing to look at a slow and endless TPM deployment as a "glass is half-full" event, then the numbers will likely prove that TPMs are being shipped at a steady increase ~ even though no one can prove that Wave is going to make any money beyond TPM deployment yet. Also, I don't believe we've had any significant SEagate deployment yet, so again, it depends on where you sit in the slog
3. No news is no news, and again, it depends on one's perspective on what acceptable numbers are. My opinion, the numbers are only acceptable if 2-things occur: The first is increased TPM deployment revenue, and the second is the reporting of some appreciable upgrade license revenues. If we see almost none, then not acceptable
4. No and No - simple as that
Seagate First Hard Drive Maker to Win NIST Certification for Encrypting Hard Drive
Press Release Source: Seagate Technology
http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070730/aqm052.html?.v=14
Seagate First Hard Drive Maker to Win NIST Certification for Encrypting Hard Drive
Monday July 30, 7:59 am ET
Hard drive leader brings powerful government-grade data security to business and consumers
SCOTTS VALLEY, Calif., July 30 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX - News) today announced that the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST), the U.S. federal agency focused on promoting product innovation by establishing technical standards for government and business, has certified the Advanced Encryption Standard (AES) encryption chip built into Seagate's Momentus® 5400 FDE.2 disc drive, the world's first laptop hard drive with native encryption to protect against unauthorized access to information stored on lost or stolen laptop computers.
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With the certification, Seagate becomes the first hard drive maker to offer a disc drive with built-in encryption approved by NIST. AES, an encryption standard developed by the U.S. government and used widely worldwide, has an expected useful life of more than 50 years. The algorithm is integral to Momentus 5400 FDE.2, a 2.5-inch hard drive built with Seagate DriveTrust(TM) technology. DriveTrust is a powerful security platform that combines strong, fully automated hardware-based security with a programming foundation that makes it easy to add security-based software applications for organization-wide encryption key management, multi-factor user authentication and other capabilities that help lock down digital information at rest.
"This NIST stamp of approval exemplifies Seagate's commitment to open standards that enable the widespread adoption of encrypting hard drives for laptops and other computers as the explosive growth of laptop PC puts more sensitive personal and business information at risk," said Tom Major, vice president of Personal Compute Business, Seagate. "With this important certification, our system builder and end-user customers can rest assured that Momentus 5400 FDE.2 delivers the full security power of AES."
The Seagate Momentus 5400 FDE.2 (Full Disc Encryption) hard drive uses AES to encrypt all hard drive information transparently and automatically. The hard drive also gives organizations an easy, cost-effective way to repurpose or retire laptops without compromising sensitive information and to comply with the growing number of data privacy laws calling for the protection of consumer information using government-grade encryption.
An independent laboratory conducted the successful certification testing against FIPS (Federal Information Processing Standard) 197. Seagate's certificate -- 587 -- is posted on the NIST web site: http://csrc.nist.gov/cryptval/aes/aesval.html. FIPS are a set of information processing standards used within government agencies.
About Seagate
Seagate is the worldwide leader in the design, manufacture and marketing of hard disc drives, providing products for a wide-range of applications, including Enterprise, Desktop, Mobile Computing, Consumer Electronics and Branded Solutions. Seagate's business model leverages technology leadership and world-class manufacturing to deliver industry-leading innovation and quality to its global customers, and to be the low cost producer in all markets in which it participates. The company is committed to providing award- winning products, customer support and reliability to meet the world's growing demand for information storage. Seagate can be found around the globe and at http://www.seagate.com.
Seagate, Seagate Technology and the Wave logo are registered trademarks of Seagate Technology LLC. Momentus is a trademark or registered trademark of Seagate Technology LLC or one of its affiliated companies. All other trademarks or registered trademarks are the property of their respective owners.
Escrow56 - How many times did you think that over the past 8-years?
LOL
And I guess it is hard for you to understand that we have made nothing on this stock in over 7-years, and the absence of newsworthy items is, in and of itself, an indicator of stagnant performance/progress.
If you wish to call it crying ~ so be it. I really am not interested in what you call it, because you have been wrong on so many other fronts that your asessment of me must be taken with a grain of salt, simply based on your track record of knowing what's true about anything.
I call it, stating my opinions...
Someone please explain why we still see only a Dutton report that is over a month old as our last piece of WAVX news. Excuses, and guesswork rationale - getting very depressing when weeks and months go by and nothing happens that's newsworthy.
yuck
rooster1 - What does SKS have to say about this, I wonder?
barge - TrustedLogic is definitely implicated in TrustZone as it pertains to IPhone and their chipset. Therefore, if TrustedLogic is implicated, does that not mean that Wave is also implicated by association?
of course that's all 3rd part hear-say