There's no question of the opportunity. No debates from here on that point. However, I believe that what you are all seeing from some long-time-longs who have fallen out of favor on this board (this includes me) is more to the last two specific points (highlighted) posted below:
Does this mean that Wave is, after so long a time, DOOMED to succeed? Not necessarily. That’s not my point. My point is that every assertion above is valid.
It doesn’t ensure Wave’s success, though. Trusted Computing CAN unfold at a pace that slowly strangles the company. Wave’s expertise (people) can, conceivably, be RECRUITED away or DUPLICATED.
I still contend that if I represent the opinions and sentiment of any Wave longs who post on this board, it is because I am still a Wave long ~ yet I grow concerned over the time it's taking to complete the journey.
Not because it's taken 12+ years (and counting) for the market to mature ~ and I thought it would happen sooner. And not because Wave hasn't done an excellent (yes I said excellent) job navigating its way into a commendable position (partners, industry, vision, technology) that every long (I can only hope) sees, and admires.
I am concerned for the very same reasons that this post eludes to. And that is, that even though Wave has positioned itself to potentially play a major role in the security evolution, they have not found a way to monetize it, such that:
- it can yet be articulated into a reasonably accurate forecast
- they are not forced to re-negotiate their revenue per PC, or per storage device over time
- the market has not yet made it a top priority.
For these reasons, I still contend that "Wave’s expertise (people) can, conceivably, be RECRUITED away or DUPLICATED", because,
1 Wave still seems dependant on the deployment and adoption schedule of others
2. Still viewed as a nice-to-have, instead of a must-have, or we'd already be seeing the share price go up.
3. Steven himself has proclaimed that he is perplexed over why this is not a priority.
In summary, there is no argument that what Wave has created is innovative, and visionary. There is no argument that without Steven, Wave wouldn't be where it is today (good or bad). There is no argument that Wave is definitely poised to be a significant player ~ although possibly not as significant as once imagined.
The argument simnply is that Wave still, after all these years, partners and accomplishments, CAN NOT articulate a reasonable, and defensible forecast.
All of their old, existing and new partners can. Until Wave can, then they are not (as you say) doomed to succeed. When they can, I believe that you will find that patience will be much easier to exercise.
If you are convinced that your INVESTMENT is going to be successful ~ that's great! And before you say it ~ I too am okay with the risk of losing my investment if things don't work out. But if they are to work out, then the questionable dot-connecting, all things being Wave on-topic when they really aren't, and the endless PR-chain that begin with "Wave will be demonstrating at ..." must be replaced with CCs and postings of a predictable and defensible revenue stream that proves it. The hockey stick timeline for TPM-enabled PC rollout is still happening for the partners. However, the adoption curve for enterprise upgrades isn't going according to plan.
No one is right to assume anything until it actually happens. We are all still risking our investments. We are all still left to wait and see. Although the industry suggests that this is no longer an if, but a when question ~ the same can not be said about the profitability of our investments. And that's what we're in this for really ~ is to turn a profit on our investment. At least I am.
AI
