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I absolutely hate their wording, its complete BS. If you wanna drop coverage because of fraud concerns state so, don't put out a BS "reallocating resources more efficiently" and therefore "any of our prior financial projections on this stock should not be relied upon." More like you shouldn't rely on them because they are a fee chasing POS, who lacks any DD abilities.
SPU-You are looking at this completely wrong.
Q4 eps down 16% with a 24% increase in shares...OK...really not good at all...dare I say BAD
OT: Tech Investors
I don't usually invest in Tech (other than Apple)so I might be missing something.
Anyways I'm looking at MU the memory manufacturer. It trades at 9.6x 2012 earnings, and therefore Im assuming everyone is paranoid about declining ASP's crushing margins (like with recent Q in which margins dropped 400 basis points from Q1 to Q2)?
For this most recent Quarter over Quarter comparison, DRAM ASPs decreased 23%, NAND's ASPs decreased 4%, and NOR's ASPs decreased an undisclosed amount. However it seems like margins can only rise, as management has stated ASP's will stay flat/rise and even with them staying flat, margins will expand due to them cutting costs. My take is margins should explode higher, as NAND/DRAM pricing seems very strong now after the Quake. While MU won't state they are a benefactor of the quake, they said their competition is hurt far worse than them, and they are minimally affected on production. Because of the quake and the unexpected strength in NAND/DRAM pricing (as evident in the post quake price surges) I'm thinking they should crush numbers.
I'm thinking this is a nice 6 month trade. Opinions?
Malone Bailey
Thats what I thought, that question just destroyed them and made them look like idiots (I joined in 15 seconds before it). Too bad the rare earth crowd clearly doesn't follow fundamentals.
CHGS-Joe did you ask yet? I just joined in, or is this you now?
EDIT This has to be you, you've induced silence into the call, and I'm happy I'm overweight puts.
SIHI-Its clear Doug thinks I'm a short seller as he now claims my actions prevent "the US and global economy from rising and growing at healthy, sustainable rates." Yes that is a quote
Anyways he still believes I need to visit facilities, talk to their employees, and observe their pallets shipping.
My concern is this, visiting facilities and meeting with management will only protect you from blatant and obvious fraud like CEU. Or sometimes it won't even do that, like with CBEH and others. Personally I'm more paranoid about hiding operating expenses under CAPEX or something else that is overstating profitability, something I'm sure happens all the time and is impossible to detect by factory visits, meeting with employees, or observing their pallets. With Sinohub and their 2 subsidiaries (Shenzhen Limited and Shanghai Limited) SAIC filings are a great place to start and I think offer the most DD. It currently looks hopeless for me convincing him to send someone to meet up at the local offices, which is the only way I can get 100% accurate numbers.
EDIT: After NIV fell they are the only consumer electronics play left, if they get their act together there's no reason this stock shouldn't be substantially higher.
CHGS-I've met these guys (in 2009 or 2010 can't remember) and just based on my experience they are a complete joke. They talk the talk, talking about how precision abrasives (aka sandpaper) and fracture proppronants are so strong yet when earnings came their projections were completely wrong.
I'm long April and May puts.
Sinohub emails
ME:I'm interested in conducting on ground DD for Sinohub, as I'm interested in adding them to my fund. Would the company cooperate with my efforts?
Doug:We would be happy to assist, depending on the info requested. Clearly, we
can not disclose any proprietary or non-public information.
Please clarify what you mean by "on ground DD" - does this mean you'd like
to visit our facilities in Shenzhen? We would be happy to host you for a
tour of our Hong Kong warehouse, Shenzhen headquarters in Nanshan
District, and Mobile Phone ICM Factory in Ba'Oan District of Shenzhen.
You can get a good first review of the factory with these 15 video clips:
http://www.sinohub.com/investors-factory%20tour.html
Hope this is helpful.
If anything else, please let me know.
Best Regards,
Doug
*****************************
Douglas Paul Menelly
VP, Investor Relations
SinoHub, Inc. (NYSE Amex: SIHI)
Mobile (China) 86.139.2524.5053
Mobile (USA) 1.516.445.5387
dmenelly@sinohub.com
Me:Thanks for the invitation but I don't see any need to visit the facilites currently, instead because of your simple corporate structure, pulling SAIC filings is probably the most effective DD. So do you guys have copies on hand you could email me for Sinohub Electronics Shenzen Limited and Sinohub Electronics Shanghai Limited? If not I can have an employee of mine go and pick them up at their local offices, but he will need company consent to access them.
Doug:If you have employees local in Shenzhen and Shanghai, perhaps it would be
best for us to meet with them to talk about the company. That is the usual
process for due diligence and learning about a prospective investment.
Further, I find it a bit odd that you'd prefer to read documents instead
of meeting with executive management to build a relationship and get a
better understanding of SIHI, our business model, and the team.
Best,
Doug
Me:My purpose for research is to verify the legitimacy of Sinohub, as you know there has been alot of fraud in the Reverse Merger Space. Ironically I don't value factory visits or meeting with management nearly as much as viewing SAIC filings for a company. This may seem strange but my reasoning is simple 1. Factory visits are essentially meaningless, in determining legitimacy of a company, because alot of companies that have little or no operations running for most of the year will bring in trucks and run operations during investors visits in an attempt to prove themselves. CBEH just did this, according to SEC filings they should have 17 trucks entering their facilities every day to pick up biodiesal. Investors who visited the factory with Rodman & Renshaw saw five of these trucks coming just when they were there (and they believed the company was legitimate). An investigator watched their facility for 6 months counting trucks and excluding the five there for investor day, there was only 1 truck the entire 6 months (While the company claimed 100's, now those investors who bought off their company visit are down 75% on their investments).The point of this anecdote is unfortunately alot of Chinese RTO's will fake operations for investor visits, so in person visits are really almost useless except for the most blatant frauds.
And no I'm not a journalist but its probable that if I receive the filings, that'll they'll be published or referenced publically as I usually share my findings with CNBC reporters, TheStreet.com Writers, or Seeking Alpha Authors. My employees in China are essentially glorified errand runners/translators, they have no trading authorizations or anything else, they mainly just conduct research and retrieve information I want.
It is odd, I prefer reading documents, but as I've explained earlier factory visits aren't reliable indicators of legitimacy. Nor do I trust auditors anymore after KPMG, Deloitte, and others have signed off on blatant frauds (I do like Baker Tilly HK). While I do typically like meeting with management, unless its a conference format where I can meet dozens of companies management, I usually don't have time.
The SAIC documents for your subsidiaries, because of your simplistic structure with no VIE's, are really the best DD anyone can access and publishing them would invoke confidence in your company.
Doug:Send your folks to the offices, you're already tripping on your own words
stating you "are an individual investor" and that you also "work for a
fund" so it's clear you don't know what you're doing or what info you're
after - except for playing games.
So send your own people, do your own homework, and exhaust your own
resources to discover that SIHI is legit, by the book, and completely
clean. But by all means, knock on all the doors you wish, just don't
expect me to assist you in playing along with your games and your lies. If
you want me and SinoHub to be open and honest with you, as an investor
(which I don't believe), then we expect the same level of respect and
professional judgment on your end, which we are not receiving.
Good luck, and do not expect any further communication or cooperation from
me or anyone at SinoHub, as your efforts are wasting my time and the
resources of the company, which should be allocated to worthwhile projects
and investors . . . not people like you.
Doug
I sent a reply email that I won't post, but I'm going to pull the filings anyway. Me asking was just a professional courtesy, asking also is usually quite telling on the results.
Hopefully I just caught him at a bad time, but could someone email him and see if he'll agree to allow one of my employees to meet them at the local offices. As if I pull them without physically sending someone to pull them I can't be assured of their accuracy. TIA
I thought I nicely tried to explain why I value SAIC's for his company more so than sending someone to tour facilites and meet with management.
SIHI Shareholders: Let me start off saying I'm long. Anyways I was talking to Douglas Menelly whose VP of investor relations. He initially was courteous and professional, inviting me to visit the facility and meet with managment(which I'm in U.S., so unless they come for a roadshow I have no interest in traveling to china, as we've seen how useless factory visits are in determining legitimacy). Once I asked if someone from the company could meet one of my employees at the local offices, he instantly flipped out and sent quite a nasty email in which he called me a liar and refused to allow my people to independently pull them.
He's either bipolar or hiding something.
Anyone want to email him and see if he I just caught him at a bad time or something. Or if he really refuses to let someone independently pull the filings.
Here's his email, so you don't have to go through HC International. dmenelly@sinohub.com Please let me know how he responds, as I find this quite concerning.
Edit: I'm unloading some shares here
$24 Its certainly interesting how this name trades at such a premium to the market, I'm long here but am contemplating unloading.
CHGS-Doubling Down here with puts
CELM is the the only larger name (the rest are halted), they have a couple sub 25 million names.
SBAY Hit Piece...Another one bites the dust.
http://geoinvesting.com/companies/SBAY_Report.aspx
I don't think we bottomed yet either. For one thing these stocks pop on earnings, but are quickly sold off, noone is willing to hold these names long term. Secondly companies are getting halted constantly, and executive resignations are becoming a daily event. Third Shorts have gottern more brazen than ever, when Ian Beznek can drop a KPMG stock, that tells you even incompetent shorts are controlling the market. Fourth on the buyouts, nothing has happened and until one actually does IMO its just a scam to inflate the stock price, like announcing buybacks you never do. I truly hope this is a bottom, but I just don't see it happening because noone trusts the numbers/auditors, which IMO is a problem that takes months to solve. Its clear this sector won't bottom on valuations, we need a catalyst such as these buyouts going through.
CHGS-This POS is starting to tank, volume dying down, just as planned. Earnings (march 31st) could be a wild card though so lets hope managment does what they do best, over promise and under deliver.
NEWN-Yeah short here makes much more sense IMO. The company has already popped on earnings by essentially prereleasing numbers (they reaffirmed on Monday), so I don't see much upside pop other than the 10K actually getting filed (and there's significant downside if it isn't filed).
On the short side I don't like the timing of this resignation, and short sellers are far from gone, as these SAIC confirmations didn't really satisfy any of the shorts.
Plus retracements happen all too often in this sector, and earnings pops need to be quickly sold.
NIV-I dodged the bullet, cashing out yesterday and reallocating to SIHI. The clowns on YMB think its halted because of blowout numbers, could they be any more clueless? And this will end badly, see you sub 2 NIV.
SAIC's are useful, IN certain situations (as in FIE's). Shorts however regularly use them in VIE structures and other situations when they aren't relevant, which in turn gives them a bad name.
OT-CHGS IB Fixed now but it was quite strange as I've never had that problem before.
FYI if anyone has the same problem with TWS restarting it will fix it.
OT:CHGS IB users IB won't let me trade CHGS, when I enter its ticker into the order ticket it won't recognize it. Is this a problem with just my TWS or is anyone else having the same problem?
I'm trying to buy some 5 puts.
ZSTN-Thank god that old CFO really pissed me off. I talked to him after their hit pieces came out, and he thanked me for talking to him and promised to send me ALL documents I asked for that would have rebutted the hit piece. He never sent them even after I asked multiple times.
These exec's love to lie to your face
As promised I went touring my local store's for HSYT products, I wasn't expecting to find anything as most of their products lack brand names so therefore would be nearly impossible to find. However their grills are clearly branded Charmglow & Nexgrill so I went off looking for them. Anyways the two walmsart's by me (Virginia) had neither type of grill, although this isn't suprising considering neither are in mass production and there are so many walmarts. Next I went to two Home Depot's here and I didn't find the grills in store, but employees told me I could special order them. Also I did find Charmglow natural gas conversion kits in both stores which were for sale at $60 each.
No position in HSYT (It felt like time for a fieldtrip)
I've heard the same horror stories of on ground dd.
CEU
irregularities concerning the bank account balances
CCME-IB Margin Calls
Please be advised that due to the uncertainty surrounding the current trading halt in CCME stock, Interactive Brokers will be gradually increasing the margin requirements on CCME stock to 100%, beginning with a 20-percentage point increase (from 25% to 45%) effective after the close today. The full increase to 100% is expected to be implemented by next Tuesday, March 22.
Also, please know that due to the trading halt, the OCC has removed CCME options from automatic exercise in expiration processing and that if OCC becomes aware that the issues have been resolved, automatic exercise thresholds will be restored. Please review OCC memo #28559 for further information.
If you intend to exercise options in CCME you MUST submit a Web Ticket via the Message Center stating EXPLICIT instructions on what should be exercised.
Read the hitpiece, that's one of those hit pieces that will make the auditor want to conduct more DD, before attaching their name and reputation. Too bad they already signed off before it came out.
Anyways I highly regard KPMG and hope for YONG's sake nothing is wrong with CBEH.
No position
CBEH-I would have never guessed that, i bet KPMG is sweating.
OT:SP500 down for year
CEU-I've heard facilities were a complete joke, classrooms above chinese restaurants with 10 students, CEO won't let you take pictures in facilities (unless you are in a certain facility which probably doesn't even belong to CEU because no one knew CEO there and no CEU logos)
But then again the cash has been verified, personally i find this latest acquisition spree highly suspicious
I'm fractionally long BTW
WTF is with this latest acquisition they clearly are overpaying, they paid 35 million for what will be 6 million in profits for them. Seriously who the hell pays 6x earnings for an RTO acquisition?
LPH-Green EOM
DEER-Never in my life have I seen a stock hold a level so precisely and consistently. This stock always bounces at 11, considering it's at 11.01 now, without even looking at fundamentals, I won't be shorting this one.
TOP SHORT IDEAS Anyone have any RTO's or IPO's at absurd valuations in comparison to their peers?
I'm way net long and feeling the pain.
Yeah your obviously a smart and creative person, but that alone won't suffice, you need indepth knowledge of chinese culture, business, law, and government to be conducting effective Chinese DD. Its Bobs and his teams Chinese business expertise that is so valuable.
I hope your joking
CGPI refuted everything on their website
I could run circles around Maj and his clown lawyer
Delete
DT resigns, Jacky leaves, WTF At least put out why Jacky resigned, this PR is complete BS. Why did DT resign?
I can only hope they keep the halt on until the 10K comes out (or a pr stating nonmaterial restatement), otherwise it looks like my portfolio is about to get trashed.
ZAGG-of course they dropped on news apple was making their own covers, because Apples covers will take market share. Not to mention guess whose Ipad covers get the prime shelf space now in Apple retail stores.
Truly a great video, Lets hope Jacky replicates that slam
I'm way overweight ccme in the money calls and common
Sihi-crushed numbers put out .67