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NEP/LTUS-between your comments on these companies, it's apparent you are delusional. What else are you long?
None that i can discuss right now, I'm at war trying to borrow securities.
Crowe Horwath is probably the worst major auditor and I have no confidence in any of their China work. I’m well aware of their cash verification procedures and associates have had the unfortunate experience of working with them. Ivy Chua, Sharon Sum, and the rest of the clowns who constitute the HK audit team are doing an atrocious job.
BTW Nice call with GPRC
EDS-How did that work for you last time, are you still down 50%?
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=73881150&txt2find=eds
Wouldn't be surprised to see them not report earnings again, it's only a matter of time before it is halted/delisted.
Not interested in distressed asset/restructuring investing, just not my forte. Even assuming someone is young, I see no need to pile into, what many would call speculative junk with a huge position. If you are 25 you have decades of potential compound interest, I see no need to chase those kind of speculative returns, you have time on your side.
Interesting site BTW, I'll make sure to check in occasionally.
SCEI-I truly hope so, I would love to short more of this trash.
Sure I haven't even looked at YLO, and it may make since on a risk/reward scenario. However anyone putting 50% of their portfolio in such a speculative name is just absolutely insane, imo.
Do you mind me asking what % of your portfolio is in this?
I know you agree with me on risk management
Don’t follow YLO at all, but am somewhat irked by Glen’s signature and what I perceive to be flat out arrogance.
Investing is risky, I don’t care what you think you know or what your calculations have told you, there is no easy 1000% return.
With CCME, and the rest of the Chinese RTO’s, he made predictions predicting multibagger after multibagger. Even in the face of contrary evidence he didn’t even fathom that he could be wrong, Rather he continued predicting massive gains after massive gains, and we know most of those turned out into 90% losses.
There is always a risk an investor will inappropriately assess risk, lack pertinent information, or be screwed by unforeseeable events, that is why we diversify our portfolios. China should have taught him this.
However post China, Glen “Do not Lose,” Bradford seems to have learned nearly nothing (other than to avoid china), predicting multibaggers again and running an insanely concentrated portfolio.
Glen: I truly hope YLO works out for you, but I’d advise using China as a lesson in risk management. But I guess your site is called “Speculation,” for a reason. I also apologize if this comes off as a personal attack or such.
Full Disclosure: I also was wrong on CCME and other RTO’s, however I’ve since easily covered my losses shorting frauds. I also learned a valuable lesson in risk management
No, although I've worked with them in the past. Investors should be examining capital expenditures though; it's one of the easiest ways to catch a fraud.
CAPEX, Fraud, and the RTO Nightmare
http://seekingalpha.com/article/434861-capex-fraud-and-the-rto-nightmare
Lph some other companies have published sat filings, although I don't believe they were reviewed by the auditor. It's a step in the right direction but they still have a long way to go before I'd consider investing.
NEWN-For the OEM business there is no product differentiation or anything. Competitors are competing strictly on price. There are at least 1000 electronics OEM firms in China, Malaysia, Taiwan, etc that are in a vicious price war with each other. It is just near impossible to sustain high margins in such a competitive environment. The environment is just plain brutal.
I’ve surveyed at least 50 OEM’s recently relating to another project. I don’t have the numbers with me right now, but if I remember correctly the majority of the firms were single digit gross margins. Several were actually losing money (less than their fixed costs which is why they kept running).
Anyways I don’t understand why New Trent would even need NEWN, they claim to have their own OEM manufacturing facility. I may give them a call tomorrow when I get back from vacation.
What is your email address, later this week I’ll try to send you some stuff about OEM margins?
NEWN-is essentially an OEM for this deal. I don't find the OEM business attractive whatsoever, NEWN is probably making next to nothing on this deal.
The U.S. partner is selling 1 million worth of product. And that's at the U.S. partners retail price. I'm not sure how much New Trent will mark up the product, but NEWN will receive significantly less than 1 million in revenues. Even if NEWN generates a 10% net margin for this OEM work (unlikely) it's going to make less than $90,000.
So no I don't believe these miniscule (if any) profits are enought to support a ten million dollar market cap.
NEWN-No doesn't diminish fraud risk in any way. I've never doubted NEWN produces products, something comes out of their factory after all. Rather I've doubted their SEC filings, which I still doubt, hence why I'm still short.
However my short position is very small now since I'm up 75% on the trade and I covered some as well.
I'm no lawyer but I believe this case will get thrown out.
Paulson sued over Sino-Forest http://www.cnbc.com/id/46473512
LLEN-After viewing some emails between Mark and another party, I’m much more confident in the LLEN short. Mark is just out of touch with reality, takes bagholder to another level. Mark’s investing track record in also impressive. He will be supporting LLEN until it’s a proven fraud, in which case he will file a lawsuit hoping to recover his funds. Just like he did with Woodlands Oil and Gas and Bainbridge Energy Partners. He also visited their facilities, although it turned out the Bainbridge oil field he visited wasn’t even owned by Bainbridge.
Jesus man if you get duped into investing in a U.S. energy fraud, that speaks volumes about your due diligence capabilities, or lack thereof.
For anyone who doesn't live in the U.S.: DD in the U.S. is very simple, you don't need to worry about banks/auditors/government officials help covering up a fraud. If you can't spot a fraud in the US, you have no chance in China.
PUDA was also mining, yet we saw how that turned out.
LLEN-This company has reeked of fraud for awhile now. I disagree about scandal of the year though. Any Nasdaq listed company has several large institutions that passively invest in major exchange listed entities. CSKI has Barclays, Wells Fargo, Interactive Brokers, etc. ZSTN has Deutsche Bank, UBS, etc.
For these institutions these positions are essentially meaningless, the only reason you see these large institutions show up as the institutional investors is because everyone else has bailed. Seriously I can't think of a single professional investor that supports LLEN.
Goldman's position is roughly .0003% of their portfolio, as I said meaningless.
Edit:If anyone knows any fund managers who still support LLEN please pm me, I would love to talk to them.
LLEN-these shareholders just cannot fathom that LLEN is a fraud, kinda reminiscent of the CSKI bagholders. Too bad I missed their investor presentation, sounds entertaining.
Disclosure:Short Both
NEP-you are still missing my point.
Several months ago i was contacted by a high ranking corporate insider who works at a publicly listed company operating in the energy business in China, coincidentally they also have a deal with PetroChina. Mr. X suspected that his company was falsifying it's production numbers (claimed to investors) by selling PetroChina energy product it had not produced. Therefore they could mislead investors into believing their production was higher than it really was.
I'm just done some preliminary DD on this name, and it appears there are very fishy transactions going on.
This anecdote shows why I don't care what Petrochina says. For all you know NEP could be doing the same thing, or any of the other dozen variations of fraudulent antics they could play with Petrochina.
Hell even if they produce all the oil, they still could be understating/misclassifying expenses, which is just a routine activity in CGS, and is equivalent to massive fraud.
You guys can laugh at my DD advice, but the bottom line is you cannot tell what you are buying in China without extensive DD as I described, it's just impossible. The market is pricing NEP as a fraud, therefore as a long investor you are wagering it isn't.
Given that no NEP investor I've communicated with has done any real onground DD, I wouldn't call this investing, more like gambling. Good luck
NEP has done everything right from an SEC reporting standpoint as well as investor cummunication.
The Petrochina affiliation means nothing in regards to legitimacy. Petrochina is involved in nearly everything industry wide. Therefore if a company has even a fraction of real operations they will likely be involved with Petrochina. On current deals I'm working on, I'm frequently seeing Petrochina/other major oil names popping up in deals with fraud.
OT: Pretty entertaining actually, I'm really pissed I didn't short this thing. Every rumor turned out 100% right on this name.
jrainspe Remember the average China RTO was down 60% in 2011. The majority of investors underperform indices; therefore you can see the mass destruction (or creation for shorts) of wealth that took place for RTO investors. I don’t necessarily fault retail guys for investing in these names. They invested based on SEC filings, and very few people guessed how much fraud was going on.
Were you long RTO’s last year?
Check my post history, as I said I was an LLEN supporter at one time (late 2010-early 2011 timeframe). And i have no affiliation with Geo. As far as LLEN's institutional base, the only group I remember is T2, because they were absolutely confident in LLEN (this was around $10 a share).
I'm very familiar with LLEN's reported business model. As some of you may know, I used to be a shareholder and met with management and their institutional base on several occasions.
IB-kinda pricey which is why I'd prefer a NASDAQ that doesn't take 8 months for an investigation.
As I have previously disclosed, I am currently short the stock and have no intentions of covering.
And once again the seller did not receive 16 million, he received stock currently valued at 8.5 million.
upwardmo:I never go all in on a short position, that's just poor risk management. These frauds are volatile, and routinely rise. Hence why I open small positions and increase them on increases.
We'll take a look in 1 year and see where LLEN trades.
LLEN-Seriously?
3,000,000 x 2.84 (value of the shares) = 8,520,000
LLEN can claim to pay whatever they want, the bottom line is they gave up 3 million shares which are currently valued at 8.5 million.
Not that it matters 16.2 million still wouldn't make any sense.
Good luck malogan
LLEN-I'll short more if LLEN keeps rising. You guys realize pr's aren't verified in any way whatsoever. I feel comfortable saying either the ownership claim is false, the production numbers are false, and/or the profitability numbers are wrong.
Do you really believe LLEN could acquire a segment expected to generate $10 million in EBIDTA by paying only $8.5 million (current value of 3 million LLEN shares)?
In all likelihood shareholders just suffered dilution for no benefit. If I was long I would unload my shares today. If you believe the company is real speculate with otm calls.
Funny stuff, hope WestPark Capital meets a similar fate.
OT: Blowout numbers for Apple
Can't wait for trading to resume, I'm way overweight.
I included "will," because I expect there will be several more buyouts.
ASIA isn't the usual CGS stock, take a look at their market cap, valuation, etc.
And I'm well aware of the buyout process, I've recently done some consulting work for several Europeans considering PIPE's in CGS.
Good luck with value investing in CGS.
Sure there are legit ones, and those have been/will be bought out. It is my understanding that nearly every company has been vetted by now by several entities, if they haven't been bought out yet, that is cause for concern.
Delisting isn't a good indicator of fraud, there are dozens of names that are absolute 100% frauds that still trade on major stock exchanges. Many of them are rallying nicely today (CSKI up 25%).
U.S. markets are up 5% YTD, CGS's high beta equates to outperformance. While being short CGS has been painful ytd, I hope the rally continues. I have roughly 30% of my desired short positions, so would love to short at higher prices (I'm confident about the worthless nature of many of these businesses).
I still don't get why people get so excited about companies trading near cash per share. How many times have we seen the cash (or assets) just doesn't exist.... Funds drool over the chance to buy businesses for free, yet all the funds pass on these names... Do you really think you're the smartest guy in the room?
I don’t expect the auditors to catch the majorities of the frauds this audit season, it can still be near impossible to catch a well run/politically connected fraud. Still it’ll be disastrous for the longs in the sector, as retail guys stampede over each other to get out.
Don’t follow NEP, but the fact it’s optionable will attract the wrong kind of interest if it rises.
LLEN "Given that GeoInvesting has made publication without proper verification, the Company with due respect, does not plan to respond to any of GeoInvesting's future publications." -from the Geo response
This company takes POS to the next level, I will take great joy in watching this stock become worthless.
Initially NASDAQ insisted that this degrading procedure be conducted at the highest level of the bank. After we obtained written refusals from each of our banks, NASDAQ agreed to have the process carried out at our local bank branches.
FMCN-Interesting opposing views
Company announced a buyback, which obviously means nothing since buybacks are a favorite for frauds.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/309545-addressing-muddy-waters-allegations-against-focus-media
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/story/11320789/1/goldman-morgan-defend-focus-media-from-muddy-waters.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&cm_ite=NA
http://wallstreetpit.com/86348-focus-media-fmcn-the-waters-are-clear-wedge-partners
Have 1/3rd of my position, am not increasing as previously planned.