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A lot of state poll results show ties. So are they tied because of voters — or pollsters?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-lot-of-state-poll-results-show-ties-so-are-they-tied-because-of-voters-or-pollsters/ar-AA1td9Nf?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=296da489e94f40a5b4c2104173ef3566&ei=17
But the fact that so many polls are reporting the exact same margins and results raises a troubling possibility: that some pollsters are making adjustments in such similar ways that those choices are causing the results to bunch together, creating a potential illusion of certainty — or that some pollsters are even looking to others’ results to guide their own (i.e., “herding”).
If so, the artificial similarity of polls may be creating a false impression that may not play out on Election Day. We could well be in for a very close election. But there’s also a significant chance one candidate or the other could sweep every swing state and win the presidency somewhat comfortably, at least compared to the evenly balanced picture in the polls.
What is going on?
The concentrated margins we see in swing state polls likely reflect one of two possibilities.
One possibility is that pollsters may sometimes adjust a poll result that looks “weird” to them by choosing a weighting scheme that produces results closer to the results of other polls. There seem to be strong incentives for risk-averse pollsters to do so. Unless a pollster is conducting a lot of polls and they can be sure that the impact of randomness averages out, they may fear reputational and financial costs for getting a result wrong due to randomness, since pollsters are graded on their polling accuracy.
A risk-averse pollster who gets a 5-point margin in a race they think is tied may choose to “adjust” the results to something closer to what other polls are showing, lest their outlier poll adversely affects their reputation relative to competitors.
Another more likely possibility is that some of the tools pollsters are using in 2024 to address the polling problems of 2020, such as weighting by partisanship, past vote or other factors, may be flattening out the differences and reducing the variation in reported poll results. The effect of such decisions is subtle, but important, because it means that the similarity of polls is being driven by the decisions of pollsters rather than voters.
And if these assumptions are wrong, something that is unknowable until after the election, then the risk of a potentially sizable polling error increases as the variation in different polls decreases.
Why this matters
The fact that so many swing state polls are reporting similar close margins is a problem because it raises questions as to whether the polls are tied in these races because of voters or pollsters. Is 2024 going to be as close as 2020 because our politics are stable, or do the polls in 2024 only look like the results of 2020 because of the decisions that state pollsters are making? The fact that the polls seem more tightly bunched than what we would expect in a perfect polling world raises serious questions about the second scenario.
The reported polls and polling averages are creating a consensus that the race is going to be very tight and we are likely to see an outcome similar to 2020. Perhaps that is true. It would be wonderful for polling to successfully address the concerns of 2016 and 2020 in 2024.
But the fact that the polls are all reporting such similar margins doesn’t necessarily make it more likely that those margins represent the final outcome. In fact, it raises the possibility that the results of the election could be unexpectedly different than the razor-close narrative the cluster of state polls and the polling averages suggest.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
A lot of state poll results show ties. So are they tied because of voters — or pollsters?
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/a-lot-of-state-poll-results-show-ties-so-are-they-tied-because-of-voters-or-pollsters/ar-AA1td9Nf?rc=1&ocid=winp1taskbar&cvid=296da489e94f40a5b4c2104173ef3566&ei=17
But the fact that so many polls are reporting the exact same margins and results raises a troubling possibility: that some pollsters are making adjustments in such similar ways that those choices are causing the results to bunch together, creating a potential illusion of certainty — or that some pollsters are even looking to others’ results to guide their own (i.e., “herding”).
If so, the artificial similarity of polls may be creating a false impression that may not play out on Election Day. We could well be in for a very close election. But there’s also a significant chance one candidate or the other could sweep every swing state and win the presidency somewhat comfortably, at least compared to the evenly balanced picture in the polls.
What is going on?
The concentrated margins we see in swing state polls likely reflect one of two possibilities.
One possibility is that pollsters may sometimes adjust a poll result that looks “weird” to them by choosing a weighting scheme that produces results closer to the results of other polls. There seem to be strong incentives for risk-averse pollsters to do so. Unless a pollster is conducting a lot of polls and they can be sure that the impact of randomness averages out, they may fear reputational and financial costs for getting a result wrong due to randomness, since pollsters are graded on their polling accuracy.
A risk-averse pollster who gets a 5-point margin in a race they think is tied may choose to “adjust” the results to something closer to what other polls are showing, lest their outlier poll adversely affects their reputation relative to competitors.
Another more likely possibility is that some of the tools pollsters are using in 2024 to address the polling problems of 2020, such as weighting by partisanship, past vote or other factors, may be flattening out the differences and reducing the variation in reported poll results. The effect of such decisions is subtle, but important, because it means that the similarity of polls is being driven by the decisions of pollsters rather than voters.
And if these assumptions are wrong, something that is unknowable until after the election, then the risk of a potentially sizable polling error increases as the variation in different polls decreases.
Why this matters
The fact that so many swing state polls are reporting similar close margins is a problem because it raises questions as to whether the polls are tied in these races because of voters or pollsters. Is 2024 going to be as close as 2020 because our politics are stable, or do the polls in 2024 only look like the results of 2020 because of the decisions that state pollsters are making? The fact that the polls seem more tightly bunched than what we would expect in a perfect polling world raises serious questions about the second scenario.
The reported polls and polling averages are creating a consensus that the race is going to be very tight and we are likely to see an outcome similar to 2020. Perhaps that is true. It would be wonderful for polling to successfully address the concerns of 2016 and 2020 in 2024.
But the fact that the polls are all reporting such similar margins doesn’t necessarily make it more likely that those margins represent the final outcome. In fact, it raises the possibility that the results of the election could be unexpectedly different than the razor-close narrative the cluster of state polls and the polling averages suggest.
This article was originally published on NBCNews.com
The enemy within is Trump's vile slanderous name for Harris supporters. And Trump and his supporters have reviled Harris personally; most recently at MSG with 'her pimps'.
Well, that locks up the gambling industry vote. First thought, big ad. 2nd thought, she's got to be a high roller to afford to do that. Yeah, my money's on her.
In a word elitist? I just mentioned 3 celebs. Not 'elite' Puerto Ricans, Hispanics, Blacks and a majority of women. DO you consider that most of the members of those groups are elites?
How about these generals who served under Trump? Is not disdain for the Constitution and for those who serve in the military elitist?
The List of High-Profile Military Leaders Slamming Trump
Former Chief of Staff John Kelly is one of several high-profile military leaders to denounce the former president. Here are some notable others.
By Aneeta Mathur-Ashton
Oct. 23, 2024
https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2024-10-23/the-high-profile-military-leaders-who-have-come-out-against-donald-trump
Kelly is just the latest general who served under Trump to re-up his concerns about the former president so close to the election. In the years since his first term ended, more than a dozen high-ranking military leaders have openly criticized him, including in remarks that surfaced last week from retired Gens. Mark Milley and Jim Mattis. Here’s a look at some of those detractors and what they’ve said.
Retired Marine Gen. John Kelly, former chief of staff under Trump
Kelly was the Trump White House’s longest-serving chief of staff, staying from 2017 to 2019. In an interview with The Times, Kelly said that Trump falls into the “general definition of fascist” and called him an authoritarian who admires dictators. Notably, the former four-star general detailed Trump’s fascination with Hitler, saying the former president said on numerous occasions that Hitler “did some good things, too.”
In an interview with The Atlantic, Kelly also detailed Trump’s disdain for injured veterans, confirming that Trump used the terms “suckers” and “losers” to describe soldiers who died in the line of fire.
Retired Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under Trump and President Joe Biden
According to “War,” a new book released earlier this month by Washington Post associate editor Bob Woodward, Milley, a retired four-star Army general with more than 40 years of service, warned that Trump is a “fascist to the core” and “the most dangerous person to this country.”
Milley also told Woodward that he had his “suspicions” about Trump’s mental decline but eventually came to the realization that “he’s a total fascist.” He said he was “deeply convinced” that Trump remained a danger to the country after he lost the 2020 election and recounted his fears of being court-martialed if Trump wins in November.
Retired Marine Corps Gen. Jim Mattis, former secretary of defense under Trump
Mattis, who resigned as defense secretary in December 2018 over Trump’s policy in Syria, labeled him a threat to the Constitution in a 2020 article from The Atlantic and accused him of ordering the military to violate the constitutional rights of citizens and of dividing Americans.
Written around the time of the mass protests across the country in response to the murder of George Floyd, an unarmed African American in Minneapolis, Mattis said in the piece that he watched the militarized response “angry and appalled,” adding, “We must reject and hold accountable those in office who would make a mockery of our Constitution.”
More recently, Woodward revealed that Mattis privately agreed with Milley’s assessment that Trump was a threat to the country.
Retired Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former national security adviser under Trump
McMaster, a three-star Army general known for his roles in the Gulf War and Operation Iraqi Freedom, offered a detailed but harsh account of the Trump White House in his new book, “At War with Ourselves: My Tour of Duty in the Trump White House.”
McMaster, who served as national security adviser from 2017 to 2018, described meetings in the Oval Office as “exercises in competitive sycophancy” where advisers to the former president would flatter him by saying things to placate him. He also detailed outlandish remarks by Trump, like, “Why don’t we just bomb the drugs?” in Mexico and “Why don’t we take out the whole North Korean Army during one of their parades?”
Former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, former secretary of the Army
During an appearance on CNN in 2023, Esper branded Trump a security threat and said if the charges against him in his indictment for stolen documents found at his Mar-a-Lago estate were true, he could not be trusted again with America’s secrets. He lambasted Trump’s decision to store documents in his private home, saying it was an “irresponsible action that places our service members at risk, places our nation’s security at risk.”
Esper, who was famously fired in 2020 by Trump in a tweet, was also critical of Trump in his book, “A Sacred Oath,” which was released in 2022. Esper also served as a lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve.
We've all read your 'research', done with clearly inadequate intelligence and poor critical thinking skills. And opinions from the NY Post don't really cut it.
Wouldn't be trying to trick me with this claim, would you?
I just prefer to research policy positions and bio for myself.
And if it were reversed, Let's just say Swift, Jlo and Arnold, you would say 'what's wrong with Harris; Dems usually get the celebs' backing?'
Contrarian indicator because you.................wish.
BREAKING: Jennifer Aniston just endorsed Kamala Harris and went off on Trump to her 44.8 MILLION followers:
BREAKING: Jennifer Aniston just endorsed Kamala Harris and went off on Trump to her 44.8 MILLION followers:
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) October 30, 2024
Full statement:
“Today not only did I vote for access to health care, for reproductive freedom, for equal rights, for safe schools, and for a fair economy, but also for… pic.twitter.com/zs9eWduC9u
BREAKING: Jennifer Aniston just endorsed Kamala Harris and went off on Trump to her 44.8 MILLION followers:
BREAKING: Jennifer Aniston just endorsed Kamala Harris and went off on Trump to her 44.8 MILLION followers:
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) October 30, 2024
Full statement:
“Today not only did I vote for access to health care, for reproductive freedom, for equal rights, for safe schools, and for a fair economy, but also for… pic.twitter.com/zs9eWduC9u
BREAKING: Jennifer Aniston just endorsed Kamala Harris and went off on Trump to her 44.8 MILLION followers:
BREAKING: Jennifer Aniston just endorsed Kamala Harris and went off on Trump to her 44.8 MILLION followers:
— Brian Krassenstein (@krassenstein) October 30, 2024
Full statement:
“Today not only did I vote for access to health care, for reproductive freedom, for equal rights, for safe schools, and for a fair economy, but also for… pic.twitter.com/zs9eWduC9u
Finally, a dire warning from the Las Vegas Sun about Djt:
'Las Vegas Sun editorial says ‘Trump’s cognitive decline becoming a troubling concern'
The Las Vegas Sun has published a strongly worded editorial stating that while “Donald Trump’s racism, sexism, xenophobia and penchant for corruption have long made him unfit for any public office, let alone the presidency,” his cognitive decline has now also become a troubling concern.
Americans from both sides of the political spectrum should be alarmed by Trump’s words and behavior. The nation must confront the fact that beyond his hateful character, he is crippled cognitively and showing clear signs of mental illness.
.... A recent analysis by The New York Times noted that Trump’s rally speeches over the past eight years have become darker, longer, more profane and increasingly unfocused and unhinged — a troubling sign that he is no longer able to articulate ideas or reason in ways we expect of our leaders. This makes him prey to manipulations by his own staff or, worse, the control of foreign adversaries.
He shambles about aimlessly, slurs his words and sometimes speaks gibberish. Always an effortless liar, now that his speeches are nothing more than a series of lies tangled in a mass inside his head, it appears he no longer even knows he’s lying.'
(Reported by Oliver O'Connell, The Independent,
October 30, 2024)
Finally, a dire warning from the Las Vegas Sun about Djt:
'Las Vegas Sun editorial says ‘Trump’s cognitive decline becoming a troubling concern'
The Las Vegas Sun has published a strongly worded editorial stating that while “Donald Trump’s racism, sexism, xenophobia and penchant for corruption have long made him unfit for any public office, let alone the presidency,” his cognitive decline has now also become a troubling concern.
Americans from both sides of the political spectrum should be alarmed by Trump’s words and behavior. The nation must confront the fact that beyond his hateful character, he is crippled cognitively and showing clear signs of mental illness.
.... A recent analysis by The New York Times noted that Trump’s rally speeches over the past eight years have become darker, longer, more profane and increasingly unfocused and unhinged — a troubling sign that he is no longer able to articulate ideas or reason in ways we expect of our leaders. This makes him prey to manipulations by his own staff or, worse, the control of foreign adversaries.
He shambles about aimlessly, slurs his words and sometimes speaks gibberish. Always an effortless liar, now that his speeches are nothing more than a series of lies tangled in a mass inside his head, it appears he no longer even knows he’s lying.'
(Reported by Oliver O'Connell, The Independent,
October 30, 2024)
Son? You impudent little asshole NOBODY would claim you as a father. An ignorant, poorly educated, motherfucker on the other hand.
Eat shit you f'ing nitwit.
Stop antagonizing you? Who in TF are you kidding? Your posts get very few responses from me but the ones that I do respond to deserve every bit of the contempt and the ridicule that you EARN.
And seriously, what does a semiliterate ignoramus like yourself know about self esteem?
Unfair.........................................to Blutarski.
Perfect. If the early voting and the mail-ins are counted after in person votes then tight same day voting counts will morph into disaster for Trump, which will fuel predictable cries of voter fraud. Whole thing could be a clear win called for Harris between 10pm-12am eastern/central time on election night.
Thanks for reminding us that you didn't complete HS.
Please don't say You went to Collage
Matthew Dowd: Why Kamala Harris's Lead is Stronger Than It Seems in a Tight Race
“I think she squeaks out North Carolina, which will be a huge signal to Republicans,” Dowd said, explaining that a Harris win there would indicate a “political realignment” in favor of pro-democracy coalitions over MAGA-aligned conservatism.
In a recent interview with MeidasTouch, veteran political strategist and former Bush-Cheney chief strategist Matthew Dowd broke down the 2024 election landscape, offering insights into the factors shaping the final days of the race. Dowd, known for his deep understanding of both Democratic and Republican campaigns, shared data-backed perspectives on polling stability, early voting patterns, and the potential impact of recent controversies surrounding Donald Trump.
At the outset, Dowd addressed the consistent 2-3 point national lead Vice President Kamala Harris has held over Donald Trump, based on the latest nonpartisan polling. Despite the media’s focus on “junk polls” skewing perceptions, Dowd emphasized that stable data consistently points to Harris maintaining a narrow but resilient edge. “This race has been about a three-point race for two months,” Dowd said, “and it’s not changed that much, despite the media’s fixation on certain things.” Cautioning against outlier data, he underscored that Harris’s advantage is reflected both nationally and within key battleground states.
One of Dowd’s more surprising predictions involved North Carolina. Dowd cited early voting data showing Harris potentially holding a lead, suggesting that Republicans may be underestimating the depth of anti-Trump sentiment even among traditionally conservative voters. “I think she squeaks out North Carolina, which will be a huge signal to Republicans,” Dowd said, explaining that a Harris win there would indicate a “political realignment” in favor of pro-democracy coalitions over MAGA-aligned conservatism.
Throughout the interview, Dowd dispelled misconceptions about early voting trends, particularly the assumption that higher Republican early turnout directly benefits Trump. “A lot of it is cannibalized votes—Republicans moving their Election Day votes to early voting,” he noted. Dowd warned against drawing premature conclusions, particularly in states like Nevada, where early Republican turnout has been emphasized but may not predict final results. Instead, he urged viewers to look at turnout shifts in the final days, referencing how Democratic voters, particularly independents, can create last-minute shifts that surprise media narratives.
https://www.meidasplus.com/p/matthew-dowd-why-kamala-harriss-lead
'Correct path', really? They have 'wannabe theocrats' written all over their beliefs, policies and practices.
Jehovah's Witnesses is a nontrinitarian, millenarian, restorationist Christian denomination.[8] In 2023, the group reported approximately 8.6 million members involved in evangelism, with around 20.5 million attending the annual Memorial of Christ's death.[6][en 1] Jehovah's Witnesses believe that the destruction of the present world system at Armageddon is imminent, and the establishment of God's kingdom over earth is the only solution to all of humanity's problems.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jehovah%27s_Witnesses
Criticism
Main article: Criticism of Jehovah's Witnesses
The Jehovah's Witnesses denomination has been criticized by mainstream Christians, members of the medical community, and former members and commentators for its beliefs and practices. It has been accused of doctrinal inconsistency and reversals, failed predictions, mistranslation of the Bible, harsh treatment and shunning of former members, and autocratic and coercive leadership. Criticism has also focused on the rejection of blood transfusions, particularly in life-threatening medical situations, and failing to report cases of sexual abuse to the authorities.
Free speech and thought
Raymond Franz (1922–2010), writer of Crisis of Conscience, former member of the Governing Body of Jehovah's Witnesses and critic of the institution
Former members Heather and Gary Botting compare the cultural paradigms of the denomination to George Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four,[317] and Alan Rogerson describes the group's leadership as totalitarian.[318] Other critics say that by disparaging individual decision-making, the group's leaders cultivate a system of unquestioning obedience[116][319] in which members abrogate all responsibility and rights over their personal lives.[320][321] Critics also accuse the group's leaders of exercising "intellectual dominance" over adherents,[322] controlling information[119][323][324] and creating "mental isolation", which former Governing Body member Raymond Franz argued were all elements of mind control.[325]
If this # holds up with the Labor Dept. #s released this Friday, what can we infer? Oh I know. ONE side is producing, HAS been producing, these kind of job numbers. 😏
Private job creation totaled a stunning 233,000 in October, far more than expected, ADP says
Source: CNBC
Published Wed, Oct 30 20248:15 AM EDT
Private-job creation burst to its highest level in more than a year during October, despite a devastating storm season in the Southeast and major labor disruptions, ADP reported Wednesday.
The payrolls processing firm said companies hired 233,000 new workers in the month, better than the upwardly revised 159,000 in September and far ahead of the Dow Jones estimate for 113,000. ADP said it was the best month for job creation since July 2023.
“Even amid hurricane recovery, job growth was strong in October,” ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said. “As we round out the year, hiring in the U.S. is proving to be robust and broadly resilient.”
The numbers counter expectations for a slowdown in October on the heels of two brutal hurricanes — Helene and Milton — that ravaged the Southeast, with Florida and North Carolina getting slammed in particular.
Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/30/private-job-creation-totaled-a-stunning-233000-in-october-far-more-than-expected-adp-says.html
This is the 3rd party "private" report (ADP). The Department of Labor numbers will be out this Friday.
Whatever Christianity was meant to be it's mostly aspirational. And the human nature it was meant to gentle is too intractable. The spread of Christianity was too much by the sword and mostly a tool of colonization.
Are you f'ing kidding? Trump supporters don't cheat. They have a moral compass and play fair.
NO one who supports the amoral Orange Nazi can credibly make that statement. He's an insurrection inciting treason weasel, bad phone call making, doc stealing, convicted felon. His supporters cannot walk their hypocritical Christian Nationalist talk.
Everything you've listed has been debunked and laughed out of numerous courts.
Remember the vaunted Cyber Ninjas? All they did was find more votes for Biden in AZ.
F.U. you ignorant little prick.
Ted Lieu on Schwarzenegger endorsement
Ted Lieu
I served with Arnold Schwarzenegger when I was in the state legislature and he was the GOP Governor. His statement endorsing Harris Walz is well worth reading: what makes America great is respecting our democracy and the peaceful transfer of power. Time to turn the page on Trump.
I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians.
— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) October 30, 2024
I also understand that people want to hear from me because I am not just a celebrity, I am a former Republican Governor.
My time as Governor taught me to…
Ted Lieu on Schwarzenegger endorsement
Ted Lieu
I served with Arnold Schwarzenegger when I was in the state legislature and he was the GOP Governor. His statement endorsing Harris Walz is well worth reading: what makes America great is respecting our democracy and the peaceful transfer of power. Time to turn the page on Trump.
I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians.
— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) October 30, 2024
I also understand that people want to hear from me because I am not just a celebrity, I am a former Republican Governor.
My time as Governor taught me to…
Ted Lieu on Schwarzenegger endorsement
Ted Lieu
I served with Arnold Schwarzenegger when I was in the state legislature and he was the GOP Governor. His statement endorsing Harris Walz is well worth reading: what makes America great is respecting our democracy and the peaceful transfer of power. Time to turn the page on Trump.
I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians.
— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) October 30, 2024
I also understand that people want to hear from me because I am not just a celebrity, I am a former Republican Governor.
My time as Governor taught me to…
Wow, that means a shit load of Trumpanzees will be arrested. Bring it!
Ted Lieu on Schwarzenegger endorsement
Ted Lieu
I served with Arnold Schwarzenegger when I was in the state legislature and he was the GOP Governor. His statement endorsing Harris Walz is well worth reading: what makes America great is respecting our democracy and the peaceful transfer of power. Time to turn the page on Trump.
I don’t really do endorsements. I’m not shy about sharing my views, but I hate politics and don’t trust most politicians.
— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) October 30, 2024
I also understand that people want to hear from me because I am not just a celebrity, I am a former Republican Governor.
My time as Governor taught me to…
iOOk
week
one - short for F- - ing SAD
What IS f'ing sad is your spelling and or your inability to preview and correct what would embarrass a 4th grader.
A part of me wishes that she would have said 'and we're going to have to fight like hell to keep our Democracy out of the hands of Orange Hitler!' Just a small part of me.😏
Same as when the Vietnamese armed forces folded faster than Superman on laundry day in '75.
Not-so warm Trump welcome in Allentown as Puerto Ricans swing away after offensive rally
(USA Today) Victor Martinez’s radio stations were flooded with calls. Yesenia Westerband’s food truck customers were buzzing about it. Guillermo Lopez’s Facebook feed was full of comments.
"Como Puertorriqueño te diré que eso no tiene manera de disculparse!!!" one listener commented on Martinez's show. "As a Puerto Rican there's no apology that will do."
As Donald Trump descended on Allentown, Pennsylvania Tuesday for a rally, remarks by comedian Tony Hinchcliffe at the former president’s Madison Square Guardian event Sunday calling Puerto Rico a “floating island of garbage” were rocketing through the community’s sizeable Puerto Rican population.
Martinez, Westerband and Lopez all are of Puerto Rican heritage and said Hinchcliffe’s comments were the talk of the majority Hispanic town, enflaming the community and likely moving votes.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/not-warm-trump-welcome-allentown-005507443.html?.tsrc=daily_mail&segment_id=DY_VTO&ncid=crm_19908-1202929-20241030-0&bt_user_id=0ZJi0HcBzAhf6rmXuv%2BkVGgCgAX7cPjfl1kRZDqnCC7cW3OqZlXEHKKiMaBO6vD2&bt_ts=1730289247382
'......and they're closing all the factories down....' Kneejerk reaction alert as in 'yeah what about all those factories closing?' Song was released in '82 in the trough of the Reagan recession, the dawn of the 'rust belt'.
Excellent BUT, we don't really know Harris....don't really know, don't really know, her policies eitherrrr.