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Advent is also an investor. In 2022 they took $6M in shares in lieu of cash for the performance of development contracts.
You love to say that NWBO has no special status. wrt the use of the facility NWBO put millions of $ into. "They are just like any other customer of Advent." Who do you think believes this?
Let's see:
Did NWBO install $13M worth of equipment in the plant? Check
Did NWBO give Advent $10M development contracts in 2022? Check
Is Advent owned by Toucan which is controlled by
NWBO CEO LP? Check
And NWBO has no special status? I'm ROTFLMAO - do you live in the far north or some country without any business culture?
I agree. It makes zero sense to me to invest in a company where you think that the "management is incompetent". Makes even less sense to do so and then to whine endlessly about it. I mean, did you do DD before buying or not? LP's style of leadership has been obvious for a long time, imo.
Anyway retail investors have zero say and even less influence over who the corporate officers are so what is the point of complaining other than maybe to try to blame somebody other than yourself for your investment decision when it gets uncomfortable for you. Does ragging on the CEO do anything for your pain? It wouldn't for me and I would cut my losses and sell if I thought that about any company I own. It's a good reason for throwing in the towel and selling, not much reason I can tell for continuing to hold.
Thoughts on open market supply/demand and series C preferred stock
It's been a bit painful to see the stock in a slow but very constant drift down. IMO it's well worth considering that sales of the C preferreds have removed a significant amount from the demand side of the market trading because those purchases are made directly from the company and fund the company rather than being part of the balance of buyers and sellers in open market trading. 885k Cs equivalent to 22M common shares were purchased in Q4. That's a lot of demand to remove from the open market for the stock considering that an average day's trading in less than 1.5M shares. Enough to have a visible impact on the open market for the shares.
On the one hand sale of the Cs have provided equity funding to the company at very good terms and very low cost which is great! But at the same time, taking that demand for shares out of the market trading, IMO has also clearly had the downside effect of tilting the open market supply/demand balance hence putting constant downward pressure on the stock to whatever extent that sales of the C preferreds has been non-trivial on an ongoing basis.
A few posters here have posited that buyers of series C shares were flipping, i.e. selling common shares and replacing them with C shares because the C shares were being sold at a small discount to market. I doubt that very much. Several reasons: only accredited investors can buy the preferred C shares. That means people with steady annual income of over $200k or assets in excess of $1M excluding home equity. I believe that these individuals are likely to be investors, not petty traders. Also I spoke to one accredited investor who was offered a price for the C shares that was less than 5% below daily closing price. He said there was no way the discount was enough to cover the risks of trying to sell a large number of common shares and then use the proceeds to buy the preferred.
wrong. different to at least one prior contract the 110% payment (10% bonus) applies only to the principal, not to the interest.
Never mind wrt my query. I read the agreements for previous Streeterville loans and I understand I was wrong. I agree with aperture007's table showing 17.3% APR.
From the perspective of a strong long, at this point in particular I think that the stock is way undervalued and I'd agree with a bet that this will turn out to be a better deal dilution-wise than selling another $10M worth of stock at the current price. Also, I'm not sure they could sell a $10M offering with no warrants, though I believe that the Class C shares have been sold at only a small discount to market and with no warrants.
Actually considering the current number of shares outstanding at full dilution especially, the difference in dilution is fairly insignificant. It's more of a question of what this indicates: skeptics view this as borrowing at horrible terms hence a bearish indicator while I see management making a bet that when they sell shares to pay back this loan, the stock will have appreciated well beyond the borrowing cost. That's very easy to imagine if things are moving forward at all behind the scenes. In either case, we need to see solid progress in the months ahead, and I anticipate that we'll see that well in advance of November. I believe that things are going well and that 'they' can't keep the stock pps suppressed forever.
My understanding is that the repayment at 110% manifests the 10 OID, it's not an additional 10% discount on top of the OID. Is that your understanding?
Yeah, and Top Gun is a documentary. And Monday morning quarterbacks throw 8 TD passes and no interceptions every game. Everyone is entitled to their opinion even when they are dead wrong and fail to appreciate that NWBO is doing something that has never been done before and has primed the FDA to accept their BLA after they get their approval from the MHRA.
I don't disagree that they seem to move like molasses in January but I can't guess how much more capital it would have taken to have the staff to do everything in-house. The real-world, non-Hollywood story is that without LP and LG this would have been dead long ago. Of that I'm sure.
I read the 110% principal repayment as the instantiation of the OID. You may be correct that there is an additional 10% discount, I'm not sure of that. Either way, far from panic I read this as having confidence that the share price will increase by well over 25% from the current depressed price hence this will lead to far less dilution than selling more shares here. That's just a basic long's understanding of where we are and why this demonstrates confidence that the shares are now well underpriced. Also, again even at a 25% discount, a bank would be engaging in deep speculation if they didn't see proof that repayment is highly likely. Do you think the bank is purely speculating that they'll get paid back with all that interest starting in 11/23?
pls explain your math. 10% discount and 8% interest is 18%.
call it what you will, and at whatever arbitrary interest rate calculation, commercial banks generally don't speculate on getting return of capital.
$11M bank loan says to me that there is some pretty good proof that free cash flow is coming.
NWBO could have already been delivering DCVAXL a year ago...
You know this how?
An armchair quarterback can throw 8-10 touchdowns every NFL game. It's so easy!
Try keeping the emotion out of your thinking. Most of the very wild guesses made on the MBs are pure noise. Especially the 'expert' opinions coming from those without any real expertise.
Anybody with a lick of sense knows that you can't front-run RA marketing applications with PR.
They don't have the cash to contract for thousands of patients worth of clean rooms yet. Once approved, yes, then bank loans can be arranged, especially as they start to show actual cash flow. But bank financing requires approval and proof that the cash income stream is not in any doubt.
I found the post quite revealing. The OP has long stated that he thinks dcvax won't get approved. How he contradicts himself now with this - if he thinks it matters to any GBM patients then he realizes that it will be approved, otherwise the timing of applying for approvals would not matter in the least.
What matters most is getting approvals with certainly for all future patients, especially those who will be saved in much larger numbers using LL's currently under investigation combination therapies which very much depend on dc-vax. DcVax getting stand-alone approval (on top of the to date SOC) is the big first stepping stone to very radical improved chances for many, many future GBM patients that LL has been working her entire career to push forward, and for which she is very widely respected and recognized.
LP signed on to be CEO of NWBO conditioned on their using Cognate. The contract was signed essentially BEFORE she became CEO.
She hired Advent to produce dcvax at Sawston which nwbo owned (long term lease). They will apply for marking approval in the UK, hence need to produce in the UK.
Your facts conveniently leave a lot out of the story.
This is a boldfaced lie. Liau published the findings that the positive results were stat sig. She is totally behind getting dcvax approved asap.
90% or more of what's written on MBs is deeply uninformed speculation more often that not by those who lack the expertise to understand what they write about. Referring to MB posts as being reliable information not reported by the company or knowledgeable analysis of what they do report is just madness. Who cares what most of the longs or shorts are touting on a MB?
Further, the OS endpoint change, they flat out said it was based on data from the trial. The high crossover count was data form the trial.
Of course the overall crossover rate was not blinded because the patients had to request cross-over, and almost all did. They knew there were pseudoprogressors who had been incorrectly determined to have progressed. Some crossed over from placebo to dc-vax and some crossed over from dc-vax to placebo. IIRC even some early vaccinated patients had 'hot' dc-vax doses remaining because different numbers of doses were obtained depending on the amount of tumor tissue that was extracted on the original surgery, and they were given those doses until they ran out.
LL said years before unblinding 'everybody is living longer.' They knew who died but until the data was unblinded they never knew of those who continued to survive whether and when they had received dcvax or the placebo.
WRT the PFS endpoint being invalidated due to pseudo-progression, they knew very well from the progression of symptoms that they had a problem because the radiology wasn't correctly distinguishing who actually progressed vs who were pseudo-progressors.
Spin as much as you want. We have clear valid data that dc-vax works as well as the clinicians say it does. I will be very surprised if the RAs will insist on throwing to satisfy complaints coming from those with a financial interest in delaying dc-vax coming onto the market.
It's called peer review, that's what the PROFESSIONAL REVIEWERS do. You claiming to find issues that professional reviewers did not is crazy. Yes, you can disagree but you are a MB random poster without a name claiming that you know more than the peer reviewers and that they didn't do their jobs. You have neither credentials nor credibility.
Yes, traders can do very well indeed especially so when they are allowed to trade the most volatile stocks on the market with 20-20 hindsight look back trading. I could have been so rich even when paying ST cap gains tax on every trade. But sadly my brokers don't allow that technique.
Good answer to a mostly silly argument.
Also, how many non-neuro oncologists can be expected to notice and pay a lot of attention to NWBO? The number of the former is tiny compared to the total number of all oncologists.
How many non-GBM specialists can be expected to be willing to do a lot of DD prior to approval? Very few, I would guess.
In a situation like this selling too much too soon when the stock first moves up from being undervalued for a long time is usually the biggest mistake you will ever make. So that is still a very big concern for me.
OTOH what has the market done to me empirically over the last 2.5 years? Whether it's because of manipulators keeping a lid on the stock, or because market level forces like weak biotech sector as a whole keeping us sharply in check, $2 has been a repeated local high where 3 times you could have doubled or tripled whatever number of shares you had sold and bought back, while if you stubbornly held on refusing to sell a share you've bought a lot of frustration unless you've got massive amounts of patience.
I'm not going to risk selling 10-15% of my shares at $2 but I don't plan on sitting on my hands again watching the stock run to $2 and refusing to sell a single share. If you don't sell any you risk holding and watching yet another run up above $2 then back down below $1 while if you start selling at any arbitrary point e.g. $2 or $2.50 or $3 then of course you risk selling at $2 only to see it run to $5 without any big pullback. So maybe I'll be selling 3-5% for $2 next time it gets there. I'll have to wait and sell. Don't want to risk selling much 'very early' but I sure as hell don't want to sit through another run to $2 followed by an immediate sudden drop to $0.70 without selling any.
I don't have any hard-coded algorithm on, just gonna see what drives a price move if I can, and react with a wild ass guess or sell enough to close out 1-2 specific debts, for example. Anyway that's what I'm feeling like tonight.
Eagle, I agree 100%. With MHRA approval on the horizon, it's impossible to believe that pps %-wise appreciation will not beat the pants off the dilution rate from here. Yes, more cash will be burned before approval is granted, perhaps even $70-100M, but I can't see MHRA demanding another ph 3 trial before granting marketing approval. With approval, even in the UK, I believe a fair price has to be $2/shr or more, just for starters. Hence short of requiring another full ph 3 trial, the math is totally on the side of being long, IMO. It's really a no-brainer.
Sure and the warrants underlying the increase in share count over the last year were issued years ago. Those shares were already on the books in every sense but for a very limited accounting method ever since the original deals that created the warrants closed and then the share price stabilized well above the warrant strike price.
The bad news is that the stock was diluted to hell years ago at .25-.35 with 100% warrant coverage. The good news is that with the large share count we already have now, with the share price at .75 and especially with buyers for C series here even without ANY warrant coverage, the relative dilution now is way less painful. Of course any dilution continues to affect us longs but the value proposition is what % ROE will we end up with from here given some more dilution and some very serious appreciation.
If the data from the latest UCLA combination trial is up for consideration that should be a huge reason not to reject dc-vax, should anyone otherwise be on the fence.
Where was "repeated dosing" addressed in the referenced negative journal article? It was not, that is a bogus issue that you have made-up. There is no such issue even from doctors who are critical of the trial. That is because there wasn't any 'double dosing' in this trial. In fact, dosing in a phase 3 trial is always supposed to be optimal, testing whatever has been found to work best. That is part of the very definition of what a phase 3 trial is.
"Phase 2 is aimed at determining the drug's efficacy and optimal dosing regimen. "
As previously reported, the Company has been moving forward with the several stages of work that are needed to reach data lock and unblinding of the data from this Phase III trial. These stages include completing the draft Statistical Analysis Plan, conducting the final data collection and data validation, then data lock and unblinding and analyzing the data. Each of these stages involves teams of outside experts as well as Company personnel.
Within 1H 2023 is possible if not likely.
No 8K filed on that yet so I presume the debt has not yet been converted to stock.
This is speculative until marketing is approved, after that it will be a rocket ride. Could sneak back up to $1 or better even in the near term based on MIA followed by MAA submission and/or interim financing news. IMO it will cost a bunch more to accumulate later than it costs now. I own a lot now but I'm still nibbling here. I'm thrilled with what I bought at .25 and below and I expect to be thrilled later with what I'm buying here or below. Just my informed opinion.
I agree with you and I know that LP and LG have been really pissed off forever and are likely to be very focused on 'doing something about these MFers' with a broader and longer impact. So you know their main concerns and their likely path to pursue quite well, in all likelihood.
That having been said my viewpoint is totally economic and it can be seen this way: assuming dcvaxl is going be approved, the stock is hugely undervalued. If we have the opportunity to support NWBO by selling stock or through settlement with the very nasty dudes, at least at the $100M level just to throw a number out, settling now for $100M saves us $100M worth of dilution at this time where if the dcvaxl can be known to be going to be approved and the stock were fairly priced accordingly, we'd clearly be selling $100M worth of stock now which in the slightly longer term will be worth $400-500M, and in a say 2 year timeframe may be over $1B. Within this calculus there should be relatively strong motivation to take a near-term settlement even if fairly low, vs selling 100-150M shares when the stock is very drastically undervalued. Don't you think?
So there is that. But the company has to have plans for financing the next year or longer independent of anything but a 'quick-and-dirty-settlement', so we can assume they have a decent plan they are probably already executing behind closed doors, and I strongly suspect your view is quite correct and 'the guys' are very largely interested in getting their pound of flesh out of the short interests and their MM allies even if it takes a few years to get and doesn't help the balance sheet at all in the meantime. They obviously have assumptions about what to expect in term of stock appreciation as we make progress in getting better valuation due to progress in the business, vs how quickly they need how much more $ and what funding opportunities exist now and in the near future.
Anyway I'm just thinking out loud from a purely balance sheet-centered viewpoint including some speculation of how the stock might do as we progress. Of course there is also consideration of how successful we might be in lessening manipulation either with or without any settlement, which of course reflects back in a big way on how much if any the stock can be expected to appreciate in the near term.
A little discovery is likely to go an awfully long way.
Unless patients care at all about their QOL.
Maybe some will just enjoy wearing a brain-frying helmet 24x7 but I doubt it very much. For now obviously, the brain dry fryer is the only choice but if you had a choice and believed both work equally well which one would you choose?
Their device is not only approved, it's on the market and they have sales. Of course, the valuation parameters are totally different from a pre-approval company. This is the most basic possible level of knowledge BTW.
Tell the Academy of Sciences they should not have elected LL. Since you obviously don't know anything about that body, per Wikipedia: "As a national academy, new members of the organization are elected annually by current members, based on their distinguished and continuing achievements in original research. Election to the National Academy is one of the highest honors in the scientific field. "
5 years ago and until feb of 2020, the stock was stuck below .35 and 'buy NWBO' was one of the best stock tips they'd ever heard - even today it's at least a double. If they bought prior to 2/2020, even if they didn't take any profits until now, anybody who bought then had the chance to get out at easily 7-8 times their cost basis and can still realize a 100% gain which is pretty darn good for the last 5 years.
People who you advised to buy before 2/2020 sure as hell cannot reasonably be unhappy with you now even if they've missed the chance to sell for an even greater profit. Either you got people in the stock after it recovered from the long bottom, like a lot more recently than 5 years ago, or your supposed friends are a bunch of incredible ingrates if they don't appreciate you got them to gain 100-800% returns.
The interesting question to me is what the pps will be after the MHRA approves. I'm guessing a minimum of $2 and a max of $4, depending on how many additional RA's they will have submitted to by then. I doubt the efficacy of price suppression games after that. The game will pretty much be done after the first approval, as far as I can tell, OTOH the dark forces seem unlikely to give up easily.