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Anavex is ahead of SAVA with years of trials 2b/3 and in multiple indications. Read the "All roads to lead to Rome..." for some analysis. It is better than some of the biased opinions here on this board. Wait for the company for the real NEWS...not some message board experts opinion.
JMHO,
vg_future
Another takeaway from here...look at how skewed the market and the forces are....the reading that didn’t show statistical significance from SAVA results in the stock going up and statistically significant results from AVXL results in a drop in the stock price. That is manipulation in full form.
Hope AVXL gets its day in the market.
-vg_future
I wish there was a real short squeeze for that much covering and particularly given the great NEWS from Anavex. This tells me there is some cover provided to them by some entity or mechanism (of course, JMHO, but makes logical sense).
-vg_future
Deleted. Boi568 and Steady_T provided the explanation. Thanks.
vg_future
This is an opinion. I am not sure why the price has to be driven down for the options to be given out. For options that have that much time and the stock with a such a huge potential...bringing it down to 5.49 is the last thing on the company's mind.
-vg_future
Steady_T, big difference. Company selling stock to raise money for the business which in turn helps delivering on the promise of the drugs/treatment....so, effectively for the stock price appreciation. Whereas...traders trading stock....sorry, no comparison. They are not the same if you still think they are the same.
You are right about the market being made up of different people with different end goals...short term and long term. Some simply here for technical reasons...they just lock in and move on...they definitely are not shareholders.
Anyway, as you said, not all can spot a rocket ship.
-vg_future
Shareholders happy to sell ...not really. It could be some of the traders on this board. Remember, holding core position and short term trading shares which are sold on every swing up. It might seem small...but, there could be lot of these folks out there. So, their selling doesn't reflect the true value of the stock...they are just trading the heck out of the stock. As a long term share holder, I would love to see the stock run without these pauses and pull-backs. Once the stock gets enough following on the street, this profit taking just becomes a part of the trading while the stock continues its long term path.
-vg_future
Basparks79, thanks for that.
nidan7500, thanks. I like your decoded message. Waiting for the true and real recognition of our CNS gem, Anavex, by the street and investment community.
vg_future
There is manipulation of AVXL...period. Doesn’t matter if someone agrees or not. MMs might be manipulating to fill a buy order or to protect their calls or someone might be trying to take a position at a lower price.....irrespective of the reasons....there is manipulation. The price action itself shows that.
-vg_future
To be clear, there will be additional details from RETT and PDD in early 2021. Not sure actigraphy or something else...from the CC transcript see below.
Dr. Christopher Missling
Yeah. So we want to be very transparent, and we will, you have to appreciate that the primary endpoint of both studies and secondary the efficacy endpoints will also looking at a genetic outcome of the patient genetic background of the patient. And that requires a bit more time than usually analysis of studies. That's why we have to basically go through this before we can basically submit this to a publication, but we mentioned that we will submit to a publication the [PDD] studies and will present probably over the course of early 2021 more details about the PDD study as well as the Rett study
vg_future
tredenwater2, yes. Usually partnerships are worked out in this manner (company A making a down payment to company B and also taking a stake in B by paying a premium for the shares). So, in this case, we got a real good partner who brings value and money to the table.
-vg_future
Excellent summary MayoMobile. Thanks for the post.
-vg_future
Thanks infitvest.
-vg_future
Simonizer, thanks for the info. Sales in Australia would be great.
vg_future
I think SAS announcement came before Aug 4th (Aug 3rd I think).
good idea. Personalized google. Let’s wait and see.
Steady_T, autism is a rare disease (as per google). So, it could be the one mentioned (or not ) by Anavex. The secrecy could be just because of some pending NEWS (partnership or FDA approval for trial start).
JMHO,
vg_future
Simonizer, info cannot be wrong, but interpretation/understanding of the outstanding shares could be wrong. Those are audited numbers submitted to SEC based on which the earnings per share are calculated. As I said, the meaning might be not the commonly known "outstanding shares".
-vg_future
Rubyred77, good catch. I guess the 10K today will have the additional info for further analysis.
-vg_future
the secrecy around the name might be some NEWS that is close....partnership or FDA approval (or maybe special category...Fast Track?) for trials start.
vg_future
That is another great NEWS today. New indication and a very big area of unmet medical need.
vg_future
I think the fiscal year closed in September 30th. There are more days left in this year, so I don’t think they include the current quarter’s expenses or revenues in there. Share count is a different story.
vg_future
Based on info in the PR, we met the endpoints in PDD study. Maybe some analysts can dig deep and get more info, but this is a very BIG NEWS. No more speculations and theories/opinions.
vg_future
kmadd, this is for the period ending on Sep 30, 2020. So, you cannot deduce new numbers from the reported 0.45 cents. Also, I think there will be other calculations involved (not a financial guy).
-vg_future
tredenwater2, SAS revenue is possible. We would have to wait for further details in 8-K or 10K to confirm that. I wouldn't rule out revenues at this point.
-vg_future
PW, let’s wait and see if the share count doesn’t go up. I am not worried about the share count increase with so many great read outs and more in the pipeline, but a revenue from SAS or other sources will be a totally different ball game.
vg_future
Is it possible that the additional money (around 18 mill) came from SAS? We cannot jump to the conclusion that there was share dilution unless we see the 8K. It will be musics to the ears of the money came from additional sources.
Since they are not advertising (rather cannot) SAS, so they cannot say it outright.....we have to look at the share count to deduce.
vg_future
What if...the rumor from the other day comes true....hopefully at a pleasant/great premium....nice Christmas gift.
I can think of a Common household name....Johnson & Johnson.
Merry Christmas and happy holidays to all!
cg_future
Thanks for the info. Let's see how it goes.
-vg_future
TDAmeritrade is showing 12/23 as the earnings date. Maybe it picked it up from systems out there (could be an estimated/expected date), but I haven't seen any PR from the company about the earnings release yet. Interesting.
-vg_future
Thanks RedShoulder (one more time) for that call to IR and also all the emails (from posters here) regarding SAS to the TGA where they got clarification on the eligibility for the drug usage under SAS. It is as clear as it can get....now a nice earnings PR from Anavex should put an end to the confusion and confirm....one more time....the applicability of SAS rules and access to all the patients. Huge huge potential.
-vg_future
Kevindenver, exactly....none of this matters pretty soon as we keep getting positive read outs.
vg_future
Thanks boi568 for checking. Appreciate it.
-vg_future
tootalljones, this seems like an important one... PDD study - primary and secondary endpoints MET. Did anyone verify and/or confirm this NEWS bit. Anavex should fly on this NEWS...maybe there will be a PR soon.
-vg_future
kevindener, I know. If you read my list, you can see that
- the NEWS about SAS is already announced...revenue reporting can be done in quarterly results once tallied/calculated/audited (no regualation FD rule needs to be applied...normal business)
- PDD readout finalization....they can keep quiet until it is done...no need to regulation FD rules
- Partnership deal...until finalized is not material...
So, what I meant by quiet is company keeping quiet (not necessarily SEC's quiet period definition) while putting things together..
-vg_future
Quiet period (in essence) could also be due any pending NEWS or activity. What is the event or activity impacts the material info? That could cause the delay while the numbers or details are being worked out. My favorite guesses are
- revenue from Australia (SAS)
- finalizing the PDD readout
- partnership and details
.........
vg_future
tootalljones, where is this info coming from..."has stopped its internal sell program half an hour ago "...opinion or fact? TIA
Boi568, couldn’t agree more. This stock is heavily manipulated....particularly when there is some good NEWS. I just wish this time the manipulators get their clocks cleaned...thoroughly.
The science has to get traction (and withstand this manipulation) for the benefit of the suffering patients.
vg_future
abew4me, thanks for the post and thoughts. Makes sense.
-vg_future