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Why is that important, do you like it too or something <g>.
Ok but those have also gone to new highs above their respective early 04 highs, unless you're now talking about this last dec high...in that case, is that your opinion, that the dec highs will prove to be the top for years?
How would that have been THE top when we've since gone to new all time highs on the rut, nya...new recovery highs on all the indices etc.
Are these just the second set of tops for this secular bear?
That's a great post diesel and since the two responses were both that the consumer can't spend anymore because they're tapped out, it'll be very interesting to see just how much longer they can.
Wasn't that the same reason so many bears had a lasting top coming in 04, that the consumer was tapped out...I heard that all last year, yet we printed a new high, and will again.
Wasn't that the point of showing that chart...almost a prediction of what might happen from here. Just for arguments sake, can't we just as easily find a chart that would look very similar that would break up at this point. Since we know that to be true, it makes sense that some amount of thought about the fundamental differences between time periods makes sense...so diesel's comment that it's different fundamentally would seem to be a valid argument. You guys could discuss for days all the differences...I sure ain't gonna do it <g>.
I read the report, and saw the news on the cc...people should realize the inventory news is huge. The cap ex is a huge positive surprise as well, but wasn't the semi industry supposed to be in for a horrible 05 because of a big inventory problem...intc's inventory levels were too low during the quarter! Looks like the analysts got it wrong again.
Leaner inventory but narrower margins
The company cut inventory levels by more than 18 percent to $2.6 billion, compared with $3.2 billion at the end of the previous quarter. The $560 million reduction was significantly more than the $350 million to $400 million expected by analysts.
"The most important thing for them is that they cut their inventory levels," said RBC Capital Markets analyst Apjit Walia, who has a "sector perform" rating on Intel. "And it was a much deeper than the expected cut."
In fact, Intel executives said during the conference call that inventory levels, which had surged to $3.2 billion in mid-2004, had gotten a little too low during the quarter.
"My personal opinion is that we tried to slam the door hard on inventory and maybe went a little hard," Intel CFO Andy Bryant said during the call. "In this business not being able to fill an order is a much bigger deal than to have inventory sit around an extra few days."
Hey diesel, take it for what it's worth, nothing as the saying goes <g>.
But that's what I've got, 2402 in about the second week of april. Semi's should explode from right here...for everyone that hasn't liked the sox action lately, and I'll admit it went a bit lower than I thought, it was supposed to underperform in the first leg of the comp rally (1750 back to a marginal new high), then it leads the second leg, and the rest of 05.
I'll go out on a limb and be the complete opposite of every analyst out there, 05 will be the year of the semi's.
So Freep 2070-75 held, now we can move on to 2402-2405 and sox 560-585 in april. The deviation turned out to be that it took a little longer to get 2070, and so now it'll take a little longer to get 2400+. All this f'ing with it and it was just a bit delayed.
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: dieselfuel who wrote msg# 21713
Date:12/19/2004 7:00:16 PM
Post #of 22382
Just nothing to add really...watching things play out now. I see Fletch mentioned getting the 50 day....that's exactly what this fall to 2070 was all about, tagging the 50 day. We just missed getting 2175-80 again, but 2171 was fine with me...still looks to me like we should fall from that to about 2070. Only other thing I could see would be we just fall and close at the 20 day tomorrow, and reverse up from there, but I think we fall to 2070 over another 7-8 days or so. IMO, all we're doing now is finding out when we get 2400...a reversal from the 20 day and I think we get it in early Feb, a fall to 2070 should get it in March.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4788034
QLogic increases third quarter outlook
Tue Jan 11, 2005 02:09 AM ET
NEW YORK, Jan 11 (Reuters) - Computer storage networking company QLogic Corp. (QLGC.O: Quote, Profile, Research) on Tuesday raised its third-quarter outlook.
The company said it expects to report third-quarter revenue in the range of $148 million to $150 million, compared with its previous view of $136 million to $143 million.
It said it expects to report net income of 44 to 46 cents per share, up from the previous view of 36 cents to 39 cents per share.
Excluding merger-related stock compensation charges, the company said it expects to report earnings per share of 46 cents to 48 cents, up from a previous view of 38 cents to 41 cents per share.
Analysts, on average, currently expect the company to report third-quarter revenue of $140.8 million and earnings per share of 40 cents, according to Reuters Estimates.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh41090_2005-01-11_07-09-31_wen...
Surveys Bullish on Tech Spending Growth
By Bill Snyder
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
1/10/2005 2:47 PM EST
Surveys by two investment houses point to a substantial uptick in technology spending in 2005, a welcome break from the run of bad news affecting tech stocks so far this year.
Citing a study by trade publication CRN, Merrill Lynch analyst Steve Milunovich said 69% of large firms surveyed expected to increase their technology budgets over the next 12 months, an increase of 16 percentage points over a September survey. And only 11% of the firms surveyed said they expect to cut spending.
http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/marketfeatures/10202604.html?cm_ven=YAHOO&cm_cat=FREE&am...
I'll repost this now, hopefully this time it'll update day to day...and I'm going to look back at it in about 5 weeks, I think this will prove to be a very significant low. That 2070-75 area held so far which is about as good a thing as could of happened for 2400 in april to come true...all JMO and of course I could be wrong.
Actually I think klac will turn up like it did in may of 03...that dip to the macd 0 line. I don't really have that criteria for building a right shoulder, and it doesn't have to drop that much more, though it can.
I said last night, I don't think we have to turn up right away like you do, but that would be fine...we could bottom underneath the comp 50 day for a few more days and drop near 2070-75 and everything would be fine with me. I don't doubt we could get a green day tomorrow though. Whether that means whatever low we get tomorrow is it, who knows.
I still think we get comp 2400 and sox ~600 in april...the first move to about 2300 comp will come in about 5 weeks IMO, then go on to april.
Last, I don't think mxim is that great of an indicator, from dec 02 to oct 03, the sox was up 17% net and mxim was flat...klac was up 30%. klac's corrected about 14% here, it corrected about 13% in may 03 before rocketing.
it'd be something if this inv head and shoulders played out...target 65.
Emulex Announces Preliminary Second Quarter Results
Wednesday January 5, 5:20 pm ET
COSTA MESA, Calif., Jan. 5, 2005 (PRIMEZONE) -- Emulex Corporation (NYSE:ELX - News), the market leader in Fibre Channel host bus adapters (HBAs) and a leading supplier of intelligent building blocks for next-generation storage networking systems, today announced that it expects to report revenues of approximately $90-$91 million for the second fiscal quarter ended December 2004, compared to the range of $81-$85 million projected during the Company's first quarter conference call in October 2004. The Company expects non-GAAP earnings per share for its second fiscal quarter to approximate $0.19-$0.20 per share, compared to the prior projection of $0.13-$0.15. On a GAAP basis, including amortization of intangibles and deferred stock-based compensation, the Company expects to report earnings of approximately $0.14-$0.15 per share, compared to prior guidance of approximately $0.08-$0.10 per share.
http://biz.yahoo.com/pz/050105/70394.html
4:01PM LSI Logic Raises Q4 Revenue Range (LSI) 5.02 -0.26: Co raises Q4 rev expectations to $415-420 mln (from $360-390 mln), Reuters consensus is $378 mln; co expects Q4 EPS, ex items, in the range of $0.01-0.03 (from a loss of $0.02-0.05), Reuters consensus is a loss of $0.04. Co sees Q4 gross margin in the range of 41-42% (from 41-43%). Co states, "The growth of our Storage and Consumer businesses in the fourth quarter serves as a positive indicator that the inventory correction in the supply chain is substantially over in these two markets. Our Storage Systems subsidiary, Engenio Information Technologies, Inc., recorded a very strong fourth quarter. Our Storage Components business demonstrated broad strength through growth in storage ASICs, standard products and RAID storage adapters. Our Consumer business grew and inventory in our customer supply chain appears to be under control."
edit: hopefully this is good news for co's like amcc as well.
LSI Logic raises Q4 forecasts
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS.MW) - LSI Logic on Tuesday raised its fourth-quarter earnings and revenue outlook, pointing to growth across several of its semiconductor business lines.
LSI (LSI: news, chart, profile) said it expects to a fourth-quarter net loss of 53 to 55 cents a share, on revenue in a range of $415 million to $420 million. The company had earlier estimated it would lose 54 to 57 cents a share on $360 million to $390 million in revenue.
Excluding charges, LSI expect to earn a profit between 1 and 3 cents a share, up from a prior forecast of a loss of 2 to 5 cents a share.
Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had estimated LSI would lose 4 cents a share on $375 million in revenue.
LSI Chief Executive Officer Wilfred Corrigan said the company's storage systems, storage components and consumer business product lines all grew at better-than-expected rates in its recently completed fourth quarter.
The company will deliver full quarter results on Jan. 26.
LSI shares fell 26 cents, or almost 5 percent, to close at $5.02 amid a broad tech-sector retreat.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/yhoo/story.asp?source=blq/yhoo&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo&gui....
edit: raised the low end by 15%, that's pretty substantial...wonder if that's priced in.
TSMC to increase production of advanced chips
Wed Dec 29, 2004 06:04 AM ET
TAIPEI, Dec 29 (Reuters) - TSMC (2330.TW: Quote, Profile, Research) (TSM.N: Quote, Profile, Research) , the world's largest contract manufacturer of microchips, will raise production of its most advanced commercially available microchip in 2005.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (TSMC) said in a statement on Wednesday it will "accelerate dramatically" production of its Nexsys 90nm, or chips with 90 nanometer circuitry, but gave no specific figures.
"TSMC expects that 90nm demand will increase at a rapid pace in 2005, across a range of applications in consumer, communications, PC and industrial markets," said marketing vice president Genda Hu in the statement.
TSMC is already delivering 90nm products to clients such as Qualcomm Inc. (QCOM.O: Quote, Profile, Research) and Altera Corp. (ALTR.O: Quote, Profile, Research) , and plans a major capacity expansion to meet the strong demand, it said.
The company said it produced several thousand 12-inch wafers per month using 90nm technology in the fourth quarter, and will ramp to higher volumes throughout 2005.
Shares of TSMC, 50-percent-owned by Philips Electronics NV (PHG.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) of the Netherlands, advanced 1 percent to T$50.5 on Wednesday. (US$1 = T$32.0)
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
http://yahoo.reuters.com/financeQuoteCompanyNewsArticle.jhtml?duid=mtfh81853_2004-12-29_11-04-20_tp2...
I was cleaning up some old bookmarks last night and came across this one...I thought this was a good post about valuations/pe's. You were right, 15 months later and the "high" pe issue still hasn't kicked in <g>. They're actually lower now aren't they, how does that work again <g>.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=1406963
You too wahz...have a great one. Until monday, take it easy everyone.
It also helps that 1/3 of jdsu's market cap is sitting in cash.
Just nothing to add really...watching things play out now. I see Fletch mentioned getting the 50 day....that's exactly what this fall to 2070 was all about, tagging the 50 day. We just missed getting 2175-80 again, but 2171 was fine with me...still looks to me like we should fall from that to about 2070. Only other thing I could see would be we just fall and close at the 20 day tomorrow, and reverse up from there, but I think we fall to 2070 over another 7-8 days or so. IMO, all we're doing now is finding out when we get 2400...a reversal from the 20 day and I think we get it in early Feb, a fall to 2070 should get it in March.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4788034
Well that's a great answer <g>...I don't have it all figured out, just my opinions, and I'm not posting...
"Market: Yesterday's analysis was correct..."
If I were to do that, wouldn't it be right of me to post
"Market: Yesterday's analysis was incorrect..." whenever I got it wrong.
So I don't get into that stuff of telling everyone how "right" my calls are...this is just for fun and to compare ideas....that's why I ask other people where they think we're going.
I was just wondering why you think the overbullishness you see now is any different than it was 6 weeks ago, and if you think it's possible we go much higher.
"I see many looking up and revising upside targets and such way above where we are trading without any mention of the overextended nature of the market. Nobody talks about that anymore. Yes, there are some seasonals coming into play."
I'm still looking up...we got the new high on the comp, now we get the minor correction into the end of dec, then jan is huge, and 2400 is hit by march, maybe feb.
Do you think 2200 in jan is possible? How about 2400 in March?
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: Justa Werkenstiff who wrote msg# 36805
Date:11/19/2004 8:11:25 AM
Post #of 38498
justa, with the signals you're getting, would a little down to 2070 over today and monday work, then up for 2 weeks taking out 2153 (2175)...THEN a few week 5% correction back to 2055.
Posted by: Justa Werkenstiff
In reply to: mjk who wrote msg# 36806
Date: 11/19/2004 9:32:58 AM
Post #
MJK: I have to take it day-by-day. Today, I don't see your scenario panning out. You seem to be looking for the Comp. to make a new high before the market corrects. The NDX scenarios I listed that took place, for example, all lead (with March being the exception) to an average decline of at least 4.5% over the next ten trading days.
http://wps2a.semi.org/wps/portal/_pagr/117/_pa.117/122?dFormat=application/msword&docName=P03426...
SAN JOSE, Calif., December 16, 2004 -- North American-based manufacturers of semiconductor equipment posted $1.35 billion in orders in November 2004 (three-month average basis) and a book-to-bill ratio of 1.00 according to the November 2004 Book-to-Bill Report published today by SEMI. A book-to-bill of 1.00 means that $100 worth of orders were received for every $100 of product billed for the month.
del
I think the window for the 2070 area may need to be opened to about 10-13 days from 7-10 days...that would go along better with that 5% correction scenario. Also since we did get a marginal new high above 2153, then fell back to the 9/13ema (actually 20ema tagged today), instead of going to 2220, we may be able to print one more marginal new high closer to that original 2175 number before falling to 2070...at least I think it's a possibility. Rise to 2180, fall 5% to 2070, in 10-13 days. We don't have to print a new high first, could just get the 2070 area and the comp 50 day within the next couple weeks and it would look fine, but a new high in the next 2-3 days would be great.
http://www.investorshub.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=4776368
edit: I'm also aware that this drop to the 20ema could have been it and we rise from here...I think we're getting greedy looking for much more than that...but this rise to 2180 then drop to 2070 thing would just work real well with the comp to 2400 scenario.
del
This from national today...rather than look at the positive, all I heard all day was how they took a one-time gain to help earnings...I think this is exactly the attitude we need on these boards.
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - National Semiconductor Corp. (NYSE:NSM - News), a maker of chips used to manage power consumption in electronics, on Thursday said quarterly profit rose, helped by a one-time gain and a tax benefit, and it forecast a smaller-than-usual sales decline in the current quarter.
The chip maker also said most of the inventory reductions by its distributors were behind it, and its stock rose 4 percent on the New York Stock Exchange.
"We can believe them this time that the inventory correction pretty much will be over," said Chief Executive Brian Halla, speaking about the company's distributors. He added that here could be "dribs and drabs" of inventory problems over the next couple of weeks.
jdsu's communications group did ok last quarter as well...it was the consumer/commercial stuff that lagged. Hopefully they're being conservative in this quarter's guidance as suggested in their recent analyst meeting.
"Communications Products Group net revenue grew 24% sequentially to $106.1 million, and represented 55% of net revenue. Commercial and Consumer Products Group net revenue was flat sequentially, and represented $88.4 million, or 45% of net revenue."
On another note, it was interesting to read around the boards today just how many people feel that xlnx and altr's numbers announced yesterday, apparently should determine the course of the market for the forseeable future. Whatever happened to the market pricing in what's going to happen 6-12 months from now...I couldn't really care less what these guys are doing now or for the next 2 months. IMO, anyone who thinks this current inventory problem is anything like 2000 needs to really look closer at what's going on here...I see all kinds of talk that this is a repeat of 2000...I guess we'll just have to look back and see.
A couple things to add to my comments earlier after some review...this thing I posted on 11/25 is still my general scenario. The peak very well could have been a day earlier on friday dec 3rd instead of somewhere on or slightly after monday the 6th...and the peak of 2164 could have been ok instead of the 2175....same with the sox getting 453 instead of the 300sma at 458. It wasn't as nice as I'd have liked but that may turn out to be it...if so, then a 5% correction was supposed to be possible, so I'm completely open now to a correction back to about 2052-2070 in the next 7-10 days, and getting the comp and sox 50dsma's. If that happens, that should start the next leg, taking the comp to 2400. We really shouldn't have pulled back this far if we were going "straight" to 2220, I was expecting the comp to have closed above 2153 by now for that, but I'll just keep my plan as being 50/50 on that...even though it does seem more likely now that the correction from the 2175 area is what's happening. These are still the two main things going back for a while now, so really no real change or anything I can be worried about, just watching it play out and looking for any "bad" signs, which I don't see yet.
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: dieselfuel who wrote msg# 21091
Date:11/25/2004 10:22:44 AM
Post #of 21413
Hey diesel, happy thanksgiving first of all...hope you have a good one...and everyone else on the board too.
Second, since we did rise yesterday, it still seems to me that we're stuck on the first path towards 2153. All my reviewing a couple days ago may come in handy later, but for now, it seems like it was unnecessary. So now I think in the next two days, we could have a nice up day right thru 2112.
But what I'm looking at right now is some kind of short term peak above 2153 around Dec 6-9...so 7-10 trading days from now. And I still think the sox gets carried up about 6% in that time to 460 (the 300sma). My first target on the comp is 2175, but I'll be watching for higher than that for signs that the pullback is very minor before launching higher. I've still got about a 50/50 chance of a 5% pullback from 2175, or going towards 2220, then falling back to 2153. I think one thing I'll be looking for is if we get 2153, then fall to the 9ema over a couple days, then bust thru 2153...or if we bust thru 2153 on the first attempt. This may provide a sign as to how high we can go above it.
I've also been considering the possibility of a 98 or 99 type melt up which could still take us to 2500, even without a test of 2052 or those other things that path 2 would have had. I think it's at least possible, but first things first, let's just see how 2153 is handled.
Take it easy.
Here's another thing to look at with the sox...96 weekly off the summer lows, rises to about the 50 week, corrects to the 13ema, then takes off. We could fall down to the 13ema weekly this time (50dsma), which I'm sure would have everyone saying the sox sucks again, then take off and be right on track. If this is the case, my last post about getting a new high first will definitely be wrong, but I don't think it matters....I think the sox is going to do something similar to what it did right there in 96.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SOX,uu[e,a]waclyyay[d19951208,19971208][pd20,2!b50!c20!....
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$SOX,uu[e,a]waclyyay[dd][pd20,2!b50!c20!c13!f][vc60][iUb....
Hey wahz, back from seattle...what an awesome game monday night...an amazing comeback in the end by the cowboys. I was happy as hell, but the seattle fans weren't <g>.
I haven't really looked at stuff that closely, but it looks like this was just a normal drop back to the 9/13ema again, which was one of the two paths we had. I still think we can move to new highs again in the next several days. I don't see this as the beginning of the 5% drop, which would get the 50 day...but I could obviously be wrong...and that wouldn't be horrible anyway. But if we can rally back to the highs here soon, I think 2175, which was the target IF we got the fall to the 9/13ema, may be too low. I think even with this drop, we could rally to 2220...I know that wasn't part of the original plan, but a couple things still look ok for that to happen.
The sox is key for me here...we've got the 300ema, the 200sma and 200ema all sitting right in this 427-436 area, with the 300sma sitting up at 458...so we're breaking one, falling back to another etc...this looks real similar to what we've discussed before...this is the congestion area before it can really take off IMO. Once it breaks above the 300sma, the rocket takes off IMO, and that should carry the comp to 2400.
I'll look things over later and see if the past two days should have changed my mind about the new high thing, but so far it doesn't look bad to me.
Don't know if it's monday, but I expect more up next week. I won't be around until weds and won't really be watching either, so I hope by the end of the week, we've seen another new high on the comp. No real change to what I've been thinking...my preference is to make it to 2220 before dropping to 2153. But a fall back to the 9/13ema, then surge to 2175 or so would work ok too.
Have a nice weekend.
Plan is Elliott's on sunday, Met Grill for early happy hour before the football game on monday...a friend is looking for something to book sat night. Then lots of wandering in the rain. I'm just printing out a bunch of info on bars, etc.
Take it easy, and thanks for all the info.
Where the hell did you find this? <g>
BTW, I'm gone on sat and back next weds, so have a good one...off to seattle first thing sat morning.
Yep, looks like intc came thru...that break back up thru the sox 200sma yesterday was nice after that consolidation since amat...one day pause and then take off...at least that's how I wanted to see it.
Not sure what happens now...I'm still not positive we can't get the comp 9ema again soon, even with the sox strength...have to look at things later. But each of those scenarios you've got could work...don't think it matters which...they all point much higher in a couple months.
One thing I'd like to see tomorrow is a monster upmove on the sox, right thru 450...today should just be a pause after taking back the 200 day yesterday. Obviously intc could "help" that happen, or not.
This is from 11/25...now we'll see if we fall back here to the 9ema over a few days, then climb to 2175 or so, or if we can close above 2153 today or tomorrow. I thought from the look of things yesterday, that we could go thru 2153, I still do, but I'm not at all sure about that. And the 2220 thing, if it happens, may extend that peak out a few days beyond dec 9th.
"But what I'm looking at right now is some kind of short term peak above 2153 around Dec 6-9...so 7-10 trading days from now. And I still think the sox gets carried up about 6% in that time to 460 (the 300sma). My first target on the comp is 2175, but I'll be watching for higher than that for signs that the pullback is very minor before launching higher. I've still got about a 50/50 chance of a 5% pullback from 2175, or going towards 2220, then falling back to 2153. I think one thing I'll be looking for is if we get 2153, then fall to the 9ema over a couple days, then bust thru 2153...or if we bust thru 2153 on the first attempt. This may provide a sign as to how high we can go above it."
Very nice...it should get interesting now in the next few weeks...to see what type of "correction" or pauses we may get.
RFMD now 63% off its lows...