A couple things to add to my comments earlier after some review...this thing I posted on 11/25 is still my general scenario. The peak very well could have been a day earlier on friday dec 3rd instead of somewhere on or slightly after monday the 6th...and the peak of 2164 could have been ok instead of the 2175....same with the sox getting 453 instead of the 300sma at 458. It wasn't as nice as I'd have liked but that may turn out to be it...if so, then a 5% correction was supposed to be possible, so I'm completely open now to a correction back to about 2052-2070 in the next 7-10 days, and getting the comp and sox 50dsma's. If that happens, that should start the next leg, taking the comp to 2400. We really shouldn't have pulled back this far if we were going "straight" to 2220, I was expecting the comp to have closed above 2153 by now for that, but I'll just keep my plan as being 50/50 on that...even though it does seem more likely now that the correction from the 2175 area is what's happening. These are still the two main things going back for a while now, so really no real change or anything I can be worried about, just watching it play out and looking for any "bad" signs, which I don't see yet.
Posted by: mjk
In reply to: dieselfuel who wrote msg# 21091
Date:11/25/2004 10:22:44 AM
Post #of 21413
Hey diesel, happy thanksgiving first of all...hope you have a good one...and everyone else on the board too.
Second, since we did rise yesterday, it still seems to me that we're stuck on the first path towards 2153. All my reviewing a couple days ago may come in handy later, but for now, it seems like it was unnecessary. So now I think in the next two days, we could have a nice up day right thru 2112.
But what I'm looking at right now is some kind of short term peak above 2153 around Dec 6-9...so 7-10 trading days from now. And I still think the sox gets carried up about 6% in that time to 460 (the 300sma). My first target on the comp is 2175, but I'll be watching for higher than that for signs that the pullback is very minor before launching higher. I've still got about a 50/50 chance of a 5% pullback from 2175, or going towards 2220, then falling back to 2153. I think one thing I'll be looking for is if we get 2153, then fall to the 9ema over a couple days, then bust thru 2153...or if we bust thru 2153 on the first attempt. This may provide a sign as to how high we can go above it.
I've also been considering the possibility of a 98 or 99 type melt up which could still take us to 2500, even without a test of 2052 or those other things that path 2 would have had. I think it's at least possible, but first things first, let's just see how 2153 is handled.
Take it easy.
AI
