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I got too cute w/TBT. Presently out. Probably a wash overall. Started buying around 44, stopped out around 40, bought back at 37 and then sold most between 42-44. I am planning on revisiting, but at the moment I'm leary ST w/markets falling. Let me know when you add more TBT. I'll try to do the same since we have the same interest in this one.
Hopefully this MFN move is finally the real deal. Much over 5.5 and I'm hoping 6 to 6.5 comes in fast order. At that pt I'll lighten some as I'm very overloaded from the mid to low 4's. More new all-time highs. Course doesn't mean a thing until you sell. The only selling I've done is w/some of the really liquid stuff on the pop this morn (GG, GDX). Selling mostly because it's easy to buy back and wanted to see how the gold stocks handle the extreme market weakness. Eagerly looking forward to buying oil again at some pt.
10 year rates coming down this morn, but not all that much given where we are economically and TA wise w/the markets. Looks like we might be closer to a time where it's getting safer to short bonds. My big problem w/that is the initial stages of monetization might be hidden and the Fed may force LT rates down one more time (if possible).
Sorry if I talked you out of shorting. Maybe I got too cute. Thought a retest of the Oct lows was in order, but didn't know if we were going back to 850-870 one last time. I expect some follow thru this morn, but I think having the markets closed kinda nixed that. So did Japan GDP data. I have no shorts currently, but looks like my gold plays will be up this morn. We'll see if they stay up. Will review all your other posts this morn hopefully.
Maybe as a nation we'd be forced to think more before going off to war if we didn't have "red" state help. I do agree it's interesting development. Something that everyone suspected, but didn't know the figures.
Looking more I mostly see bullish ST formations. Could fall apart fast if we take out 825, but otherwise upside should be anywhere from 850-875. That might be the last best risk/reward shorting op for a while.
I think we still have one more pop tues morn and then you short. I'll have to review a few more charts. The upside may only be another 1-2%. Part gut feel, part TA and part EW.
Used this morning dip in gold to buy more coins. Adding about 20% more to my current stash. I don't think the dip lasts. Unless we get gov. intervention it would appear that we're going over 1K this sometime in the next 1-2 months max.
Obviously it's just a guess, but is your style, % win/loss approx the same? Wondering if this is typical for swing traders.
Not sure what you mean. Today was hopefully a product of all the work I've done over the past few years to get better, but in general I'm a mediocre ST trader. Much better at the IT stuff. I often tell people I'm wrong 40% of the time, but I bet more on the other 60% due to my confidence levels. Due to magic of compounding, walla, I can do this for a living (thus far). A big benefit I have over many on SI/iHub is I can watch/trade 100% of the time. No day job. Of course there are times where it can be a disadvantage. Still trying to work that out w/the emotions.
Wow, nice close w/my juniors. Just added another 1%+ in the last 10 min.
The manipulators have the same charts. Swing it below 810 briefly, suck in some shorts and then ramp like hell. Again waiting for post signing "news" and then I'll likely short again. 850 ish and I'll probably short as well. I played it near perfect today (rarely happens) and for all the effort I get approx 1% added to my account from the short trades. Not bad, but easily negated w/the gold plays if gold were to simply drop $20. However it all adds up. I didn't play w/large amounts of capital as we are too close to "manipulation" levels.
Looking like tomorrow will be a big gold day (or the potential is there). May add some large liquid stuff near the close.
See updated blue lines. So far so good.
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=35562268
NYSE - Looks like we can probably go to 805 before things get nutty. Some support about 1/2% below current levels which I guess corresponds w/805 ish.
Looking at this chart I wouldn't expect a straight plunge thru the lows. A 50% retrace of the recent multi-day drop would probably be most likely scenario, but doesn't have to happen. Would correspond w/signing of bill most likely and more sell the news after.
I put some of the shorts back on when SPX crossed 815 so I'm slightly in the money again. I'll probably continue to obey those "blue lines" at least for the day. Lows look like they're being taken out, but there's still the 810 area. Will be watching NYSE support level as well to make sure both get broken before adding to any shorts.
Look back to the (edit) post. Can you see my 1-min charts? Just wondering if I should post them or just mention them.
Agree. If you don't trade your own style/plan you can do ok in the ST, but IT/LT it's more difficult. Not saying my style is the best, but it works for me. However if fail here I'm going to deeply regret covering those shorts. Big test here around 816 SPX.
I agree w/your read except I think SPX needs to stay above that magic 810 number. Otherwise HUI gets hit ST as well similar to a few days ago. Do you agree or disagree?
(edit) IT you're probably right. I might be getting too cute w/my shorts, but seen too many profits go poof in this situation. 1 min chart breaking higher out of falling wedge fwiw. Covering seems good idea very ST.
Probably better entry risk/reward wise post signing of S bill. Can you see this chart?
Normally won't post this much intraday stuff, but it's working very nicely thus far. Covering all my shorts here. Thinking they'll try to ramp it EOD again. Expect one more test of the 825 area prior to going fast below 810. Roadmap thus far. Either way banking a profit is never a bad thing. Will put shorts on again if 815 taken out.
Adding back some shorts, but only SDS so less leverage if I'm wrong. Seems like a decent ST risk/reward here back at 825. Not getting piggish w/the Fed willing to intervene in the markets so readily. Not sure where we'll end for the day, but I thnk we'll at least go below 820 one more time today.
Also action off the lows looks corrective vs action down was impulsive (in my amateur EW speak).
Bear flag forming on the 1 min SPX. Hard to say how much higher we go today, but I'm guessing at some pt we're going to test the lows if not break them. Today doesn't feel like the day we go below 800. I'm guessing that comes after stimulus is signed.
Yesterday's intraday pattern was very similar (thus far).
Taking partial profits on shorts. A little less than 1/2 here. Just expecting them to try to support the markets here. Not sure if possible. Want some stuff in place as below 810 or so the SPX there's nothing but air till the lows.
Looking more and more like there's more downside w/the general market. Flagging out a pattern that looks quite bearish on the 10/30 min charts. Bought some SRS this morn and more now for some protection. Still found a few things worth buying today in the gold space, but for the most part just letting positions run. GBG waking up nicely today. MFN should be on tap next. Going to pick up more coins this weekend. Hopefully gold is not too high by then (coin show).
Premiums on acquiring physical should go up again especially if/when we pass 1K. Might be the last chance to acquire this cheap when all the costs are factored in together. I've got about 1/2 of what I want. If when spot goes over 950/960 I'll probably order more. Right now premiums over spot are 5-10% depending. I could see premiums getting closer to 15-25%+ potentially.
New all time highs this morn in PF.
OT - Along the lines of human evolution:
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/02/09/synesthesia.genes/index.html
Who knows where this might lead. Lots of dead ends, but also probably some very interesting possibilities especially in a specialized society.
A friend brought up and interesting pt. They are finding out that some of the autism increasing are due to like-minded people getting together (especially those who are very left brained mathmatical type folks - myself and my wife). In the past you had fewer mates to choose from. These days people tend to gravitate towards someone similar. I would suspect that this would increase the rate of human evolution (at least w/respect to certain traits). Again many dead ends, but evolution only needs a few to pan out.
Well, if the economy is the in sh*t, people out of work and you have 2012 media job that's it's the end of the world then the two best plays would be shorting the market and finding a hot blond/brunet (that is otherwise out of your league) that really wants to get laid before the world comes to an end.
How are you planning on trading it?
Said by more than just myself, but bears repeating: Copper looking better than oil here ST/IT chart wise. If copper breaks out to the upside oil and markets in general likely to follow.
Hopefully the next round of Dollar weakness gives us a repeat of this action
Given gold's decoupling of late wanted to make sure the recent Euro rally didn't have a negative impact on gold. Biggest worries are:
1) Gold overbought ST
2) Getting to be too many bulls ST sentiment wise
3) Fed interested in keeping gold capped? Last time in the fall 920/930 was an area that seemed artifically capped.
4) Big caps no longer cheap (at least based on present gold prices)
Biggest argument on the plus side imho is that gold has broken out in every major currency except US Dollars. Given out bailout funding needs seems like only a matter of time as US Dollar is not FA supported. I continue to favor mid cap gold producers.
Dollar Index Daily
Long FXA, FXC, FXE, FXF in addition to my gold plays, oil and cash. I should probably have more interest in non-gold stuff here as there as some interesting charts that look better ST risk reward wise. Guess I'm too much of an FA guy at times.
Gold stocks thumbing their nose thus far at gold's weakness. Glad I have some currencies ETFs and not just gold here. Euro up sharply. Picked up some oil last Friday as well (DXO and USO). Don't see how we can get much of a broad market rally w/oil. Not expecting a huge rally, but oil is washed out enough ST to try again w/a stop maybe a few % lower.
OT - Don't know what your background on 2012 is but it doesn't take much to google "mayan, 2012" and you can find this:
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"For the ancient Maya, it was a huge celebration to make it to the end of a whole cycle," says Sandra Noble, executive director of the Foundation for the Advancement of Mesoamerican Studies in Crystal River, Fla. To render Dec. 21, 2012, as a doomsday or moment of cosmic shifting, she says, is "a complete fabrication and a chance for a lot of people to cash in."
Part of the 2012 mystique stems from the stars. On the winter solstice in 2012, the sun will be aligned with the center of the Milky Way for the first time in about 26,000 years. This means that "whatever energy typically streams to Earth from the center of the Milky Way will indeed be disrupted on 12/21/12 at 11:11 p.m. Universal Time," Joseph writes.
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From USAToday and Wikipedia. I'd also like to look at his claim that we're more different genetically from man 3000 BC vs those some people and Neandrathals (spelling?). Guessing that's bunk as well.
But it does look like the Mayans might have predicted the bottom of the housing market. Hope you had a good weekend. Will get the other post probably later today.
Anytime the market rallies money flows out of "safe" places such as USD and treasuries (not to mention our interest rates are at 0%). I guess I don't find today's action surprising. This has been the case for the past few months.
OT - I don't follow biking. Is that you below or someone famous? I'm sure you'd crush me at this pt as I'm somewhat out of shape right now. Haven't had the time to get to the gym as much w/the markets being what they are. These days I like to curl up w/a nice bottle of red at night.
I'm guessing you did races? You still race? What was your background? Have you biked much in Europe? I'd like to do a biking trip at some pt thru France or elsewhere.
You can taunt me all you want as long as you dial 911 eventually. I might surprise you. Had two paper routes for several years growing up. I'm used to biking up hills w/6 inches of snow w/papers on the back of my bike to boot. I may not beat you in a race, but I will finish. Talk about cruel try doing a triathlon w/a mountain bike (only a mini). Gave my friend my road bike.
Guess I'll have to settle for drinking you under the table afterwards. Take advantage of my size and my Wisconsin heritage.
I expect more gains in the gold sector tomorrow, but mostly in mid/small caps. Another $5-15 up day in bullion? Get thing more coiled w/out breakout out? We'll see.
Done. Ordered more coins today as well. What next?
Do I get a job, get married? Should I move to the beach?
Mid cap gold (at least the one's I own) seem to be leading this leg of the rally % wise. Still cheap FA wise. A few more days of this and I may lighten a bit and/or rotate further down. I think we'll have to see 950+ before I start to really accumulate the micros again. I have a few favs right now. MFN should have an explosive breakout soon. Guessing broad market will stay together at least till Obama's Not-So-Big-Deal announcement on Monday.
Yes, those 2x funds are purely for ST trading. Otherwise I'd just short GLD directly or maybe GDX. I've taken the hedge off already. If the general markets continue up gold should come along for the ride. HUI does look ready for a big move I'm just not sure the direction. I don't think gold has more than $50-70 downside from here, but it could be enough to cause a drop back the low/mid 200's (HUI) especially if the market took the out recent ST lows. Still over 60% cash here.
People think gold is not acting like it should given what's happening in the US. When viewed globally gold is behaving exactly as it should. Dollar strength is very temporary and fake. Whether that's another month, 6 months or a few years yet is hard to tell, but given what's happening I'll continue to acquire the physical w/excess profits when seen. I plan on adding to my physical gold holdings around 950 and then again shy of 1,000. Still possible that the Fed/Treasury cap gold here as this was the level that made them uncomfortable last fall. If the HUI breaks down thru 285 on a closing basis (will have too look and see what number exactly), but I'll probably go long DZZ to hedge existing positions. That's the plan for now.
That's part of my reason for being nervous being long anything here. However gold and gold stocks have done really well relative to the market and the Dollar ST. Lastly there is the fact that gold has broken to all time highs in everything except the Dollar.
This chart is still working pretty good for me (NYSE)
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=34840737
I'd still expect some sort of small bounce on more BS news about a bad bank or some other solution that won't work. It's looking more and more that the lows in the general markets will be tested so we're in agreement on that. If the rate of decline is too fast then I think gold/PMs will suffer more profit taking, otherwise I'm more bullish than bearish ST on PMs.
I did reenter AUY at 7.77 this morn, but will use a tight stop probably around 7.70-7.65. MFN at current prices looks good ST TA and LT FA wise.
Show time for the HUI
We'll soon see what's she's made of.
I lightened up on Friday due to my somewhat ST overweight nature, but kept most of my mid caps as the value is still there. Sold the liquid large ones.