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I think buying some bonds in the financials is only good play in market right now.
I bought some Bear sterns bonds paying 7.2 % on day before they imploded priced at 0.80 yielding over 9%. The day after stock fell the bonds went to 0.60 but as soon as Paulson made them good as gold they went up to 103.
Someone made a lot of money buying these bonds and shorting the stock.
I was only in for 10K in bonds & 1000 shares short.
Big money only goes for the sure things, I've just got to be lucky.
Paulson gave a speech last week and some one asked him if he was worried about economy. His answer was "the treasury secretary doesn't worry".
What bush cheney during worst of Iraq war, paulson / bernanke doing for economy al la Alfred E Newman.
http://www.opinionjournal.com/columnists/dhenninger/?id=110007623
http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/us-stocks-and-markets/peter-schiff-inflation/
Only tech gadgets RIMM AAPL and IP plays QCOM TSRA RMBS and that includes SNDK marching higher while fears of recession eat into many sectors dependent on consumer.
Zeev's not rided the bus for a 7 bagger today.
My fraternal org uses this full Latin phrase: "tempus fugit, memento mori".
Time flies away, death ought to be remembered.
better yet with S&P futures down 5
futs fritting away, economic death ought to be rememebred.
While we are on death topic
The state of NJ is exceeding their expectations on estate tax collections this year but not enough to offset overall tax collection reductions.
Can anyone comment on their state's estate tax regulations.
NJ recoups every last penny of the Bush "death tax" increased preferences.
I would like to know what state of the Union I can die in without giving up 60% of my assets to the state government.
Intel only lowered margins to 54 from 56 at mid quarter update. I got first "lets help you sell to make the quarter" email from Intel today.
Most companies have been making the numbers but guiding down next quarters expectations.
I spent some time in Jersey City today and the level of car and foot traffic feels like some of the Gold Coast buildings that Wall Street occupies are half empty. No new big buildings going up on Jersey side but Manhatttan skyline is still full of cranes reaching for the skys.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/17/nyregion/17building.html?pagewanted=2&sq=building%20permits%20&st=nyt&scp=5
Saturday’s accident was the most recent of several high-profile construction accidents that have come during a building boom in the city.
The number of construction permits for new buildings or major renovations issued by the Buildings Department has soared 23.3 percent over the past five years, rising to 86,915 in 2007 from 70,515 in 2002.
OT
I've been getting a lot of undeliverable email msgs containing spliced email addresses originating from schools today.
It seems that when the teachers/system administrators are on break the students are spending their free time spawning email trojans.
moore@ccsc.k12.in.us
brooks@neurology.wisc.edu
ML.acps.k12.va.us
bkx up 7+% it is correctbut pretty unreal.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EBKX
IMO just a short squeeze until next of the over leveraged zombie stocks, like BSC, are hooded with burlap bag, cudgelled senseless and left for dead by a financially stronger peer.
Paulson and Bush act like they know nothing at all about the mechanisms of the deals.
CIT going down next and I think GE will bag all of the aviation related assets on the cheap.
Plumbers - follows the housing decline
Dentists - cheaper to pull tooth vs more expensive restoration
If you were retail broker at MER and you heard about what happened to the retirement savings for 14,000 bear stearns employees you be buying PUTS against your holdings.
BKX on life support
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EBKX&t=3m
Wilber ross referring to stock charts on CNBC this morning if market was a cardiogram one would be worried about patient being on life support.
EX Goldman sacks employees running tresuary and NJ governor to boot. I don't have much hope
S&P off 20 pts from HOD and VIX will stay high. Market still got the shakes.
How can in investor be confident to a large degree after great bank robbery of Bear Sterns.
I've been so busy last couple of days I missed the post of Zeev's passing.
My favorate zeevism was "money goes to money heaven"
In Japan, I think the underwater investments were mostly commericial real estate.
Today it is oversized personal residences / vacation homes across the country and literally half of California.
I don't think you can compare the response from the corporate philosophy in US today vs that of the large corporations of Japan in the 1980's.
Corporations today are going to slash and burn the US staff and sent any or all jobs overseas.
Japan kept as many on the books because of limited social security netwrok in Japan.
RE S&P PUTs
I went to my brokerage web site for some S&P prices and there is major action (>10K) in S&P PUTS at 1170 for MAR an 1100 & 1125 for APR.
I think the waterall could begin in ernest
It seems Wall street has long memory and finally got back at BSC for not helping out with LTCM in 97.
I have BSC 8% bonds expiring in 2018 have only lost a few points below par so BSC must have plenty of assets otherwise these bonds would have tanked today.
It seems from what I have heard is no one on the street will play marbles with them and accept any of their assets so they were left with not many other options.
They have to consider selling out.
It gets wackier out there every day.
My BSC trades
SOld APR 45 calls this morning for $7.1; later in the day sold short PUTs APR 25 for $5.
So I am NET
long at $13 and short $57 until APR expiry.
Every day one has to go out there and box with the market very hard not to get bloodied badly.
I am commenting on 2 data items on federal budget seen in the news this week.
Budget deficit for first 5 months - $238 B a record
Tax receipts Y to Y down 12% - I don't know last when they were down so much.
With UI numbers being basically flat and not indicating major downturn in domestic economy, market typically would rally by end of day.
However, nothing is typical for this market. I see DAX and Shanghai in so much disarray. US equity markets including treasurys are not the "safe haven" anymore. Commodities and mattress is where money is heading.
Until commodites bubble is popped don't look for any sustainable rally.
If one uses the backdrop that the market makers are potentially bankrupt entities fighting for the lives, their short squeeze actions will dictate that they rummage from sector to sector trying to find the highest open short interest to squeeze.
From my personal experience, all they got to do raise the VIX and prices of short calls will go up in value a priori of underlying market movement and short call sellers will close prematurely if it looks like they accruing losses in a losing trade.
Yea but my Jersey Central bonds never were worth more then 02-03 cents on the dollar.
It is hard to estimate how far the shorts can be chased on $200 B marign buying power.
My feeling is pretty far.
You bet
At 3:30 PM yesterday, I was looking ay long S&P calls. With only 9 trading days and normally about a 1 premium a day, I thought I could get 1275 calls for about 20 when market was at 1286 but they wanted about 31. Nothing is normal about this market anymore.
I wasn't in the mood for 20 pts premium with a ropey market and I didn't pull the trigger. option closed today at 54 so I would have only captured 40% of the move today.
That is why I like naked options instead.
Some charts don't need much translation or analysis
http://finance.cn.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=000001.SS&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=
If you don't smoke, drink or over eat on that cruise your taking, you will probably live on average 14 more years then the average of 77 for men.
I think the analysis is not ignorant but more based on personal habits of the SS recepient.
I don't think I will need the monthly check for any form on living expenses and I will probably be deferring income to age 70.
I wonder if those $300 computers would work like a cell phone with proper cellular card, internet phone service and bleutooth adapter.
I think that where Intel will try to compete against Apple and RIMM with smart devices since I can't stand my UTSI Starcom 6800 running windows mobile OS.
laptop prices pretty cheap for pretty lousy units running linux and intel celeorn processros
ASUS Extremely Low Price Laptop Computer
AS-EPC-2SL $289
AS-EPC-2SG $289
AS-EPC-2SB $289
AS-EPC-4SB $336
AS-EPC-4SB $336
AS-EPC-4CB $336
AS-epc-4CW $384
Most troubling thing these are all drastic forms of IOU's on existing tranches of debt.
No one is talking about writing new debt that could keep any concept of a US economic expansion going. All I see is contracting economy with inflationary overtones.
PS
GM Chyrsler for example spending all their time trying to find funding options for currently unfinanciable suppliers like Delphi, Plastech & American Axel. Auto plants going to shut down because not for lack of demand but suppliers don't have and capital to buy raw components
For a second, I thought you were sorry about my long position.
They popped the small window on the rear door of the pickup truck and ran with the laptop which was in hands grasp. They didn't even open the any doors of truck since it was in busy location.
I went long the market this afternoon.
PS I got one of my two laptops stolen from my car today.
Not much of a loss since it was the one with Vista on it <g>
futures off 8 which provides a good discount to start 1 day short covering rally.
Open short interest is at a record.
RE acer
Acer couldn't beat HP on quality so several years ago they switched to a Chinese company that HP used to assembly theirs. HP sues a couple of months ago for stealing trade secrets.
Acer quality suffered some since they had to find new suppliers.
I take whatever your having <g>
I've been purging a badmail folder of 3 years of spam mail for over a hour and haven't made a denrt in contents of directory.
I've removed 1 GB of bad mail so far.
VIX went up, increased PUT buying, while market was going up. Not very encouraging sign.
Today's news from Sprint, FNM et al doesn't dobe well for "money to money heaven" troubles being fully vetted.
PS My tax free state bonds backed by monolines declining below par value from about 105. Either states now are going to pay higher interests going forward or existing bonds acting like there not really triple A rated. LT Zero coupon bonds have lost over 10% this year.
Talking about the 70's, people in last 8 years haven't had to sacrifice as much as did people did in 70's when they lost jobs and had wages reduced. Maybe it is more productiviity and efficeny on new hi tech economy or just greater borrowoing on credit by consumers.
However, theft, deception and other forms of shrinkage in economy still ubiquitous.
UI numbers tomorrow crucial to salvage upper side of current trading range. 4 wk MA of UI claimes still rising and needs some downwards trend to keep market heading higher.
This Larry Sinclair Obama thing is picking up steam
http://www.whitehouse.com/
Northeast got 4-8" of snow today.
Less hands on plunge protection team watch duty today. It could be very shakey close.
PS out to plow driveway for a while.
Market not very decisive right now.
Lacking any convincing moves in next 1-3 weeks, 50 day MA on S&P will decline to about 1375 joining shorter term moving averages at that same point and market will react to that logjam with some need to make a conviction probably downwards aka to late Dec. reaction.
go to youtube and look for Larry Sinclair videos
cash for trash getting popular.
No wonder commodities hitting new highs / dollar is worthless. The FED is going to exchange a lot of cash for dubious bank assets to keep credit markets flowing.
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Banks in the United States have been quietly borrowing "massive amounts" from the U.S. Federal Reserve in recent weeks, using a new measure the Fed introduced two months ago to help ease the credit crunch, according to a report on the web site of The Financial Times.
The newspaper said the use of the Fed's Term Auction Facility (TAF), which allows banks to borrow at relatively attractive rates against a wide range of their assets, saw borrowing of nearly $50 billion of one-month funds from the Fed by mid-February.
The Financial Times said the move has sparked unease among some analysts about the stress developing in opaque corners of the U.S. banking system and the banks' growing reliance on indirect forms of government support.
I am amazing that the dems don't field more Iraq war vets who have conserative fiscal values aka Patrick Murphy of PA 8th.
http://www.bluedogdems.com/