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Lango where are you?!
:)
Would be great to have Lango put actual $ numbers on the following.
This Q4 period will have...
Q4 Mac sales
Q4 iPod sales
Q4 iPhone sales * 1/8
Q3 iPhone sales * 1/8
Q2 iPhone sales * 1/8
Q1 iPhone sales * 1/8
'07 Q4 iPhone sales * 1/8
'07 Q3 iPhone sales * 1/8
Previously, '07 Q4 had...
'07 Q4 Mac sales
'07 Q4 iPod sales
'07 Q4 iPhone sales * 1/8
'07 Q3 iPhone sales * 1/8
Obviously this is only attempting to capture the major line items.
So here's my concern - Apple has, IIRC, given flat guidance for '08 Q4 relative to '07 Q4. It would seem then - based on the above sources of revenue - that some combination of Mac and iPod sales are expected to be *much* lower this Q4 than last Q4.
Am I missing something?
Jobs might be able to pull it off - but it wouldn't matter - GM would still find a way to screw up on the manufacturing and selling end. Bottom line: guys like Jobs don't need companies like GM for anything but ad-bait.
But why is this board talking about cars when AAPL's biggest supplier just screwed the earnings pooch in after hours?
OT:
As long as the country is being run with massive deficits, nobody can rightly claim they pay "too much" in taxes.
...imagine the hue and outcry if it had been the Pubs who poured $650+ million into the election...
At this level of spending, they may as well allow the open buying and selling of votes. Connect the lobby spigot directly to the electorate's pocket.
Found this to be a really enjoyable article on where we are, courtesy of Michael Lewis...
http://www.portfolio.com/news-markets/national-news/portfolio/2008/11/11/The-End-of-Wall-Streets-Boom#page1
What a market...equities down, treasury rates down, gold down, oil down (likely close below $60!), every Dow component down, financials down, commodities down, new-new-new-economy (AAPL+GOOG) down, emerging markets down...
My stinky bid watch list has the following, would be interested in comments from anybody here who still participates in the market:
AAPL: partial long @ $99, short Dec 80P (will accept assignment)
GOOG: @ $289
BIDU: @ $150
YHOO: @ 9.61
RIMM: @ 37.51
XLF: @ 9.99
QQQQ: @ 27.36 and 25.29
All IMO, subject to change, etc. Feedback welcome.
Merriweather is in trouble again, too. Pretty much all the old LTCM guys are, it seems. Funny how the $4B mess of LTCM seems like such a small number these days...
A bit OT, but this is something you don't see every day...DB downgrades GM shares to worthle$$.
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Deutsche Bank downgraded General Motors Corp. to sell from hold, with a price target of $0, saying the car maker may not be able to fund its U.S. operations beyond December without government intervention. Deutsche Bank said it believes the U.S. government will be compelled to intervene through a capital infusion or loan. "Without government assistance, we believe that GM's collapse would be inevitable, and that it would precipitate systemic risk that would be difficult to overcome for automakers, suppliers, retailers, and sectors of the U.S. economy," the broker said. Even if GM avoids bankruptcy, equity shareholders are unlikely to get anything back, it added.
This could get interesting - Bloomberg filing a FOIA action against the Federal Reserve.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601127&sid=ajph7rjBl1ow&refer=law
Hopefully the courts squash this in a post-haste fashion, as markets simply cannot operate effectively with that level of transparency.
Well, AAPL did warn on the quarter. This would be an unfortunate time for folks to have their "sandbagging" perception shattered.
To be a shareholder in a company like AAPL is to be a shareholder in a company that builds its stuff overseas to avoid environmental regulations (while parading its "greeness" to the consumer), ships that stuff by massive freighter across the world's widest, and then peddles it to debt-increasing consumers.
And that's all fine.
But to then try and claim a moral high ground with respect to oil companies and their profits is rank hypocrisy.
For all the joking about Palin, at least GOP voters had the good sense to not actually put her in federal office - unlike Dem voters with the equivalently ignoramic Pelosi. Which is a HUGE concern - if a vote for Obama turns out to be a vote for Pelosi Policy - it's gonna be a long hard winter of discontent.
I don't think it would make much difference, one way or the other.
The root of the problem isn't really gas consumption - it's that we're extremely mobile as a population and we buy a lot of basic stuff that needs transporting across great distances. As long as people keep flitting hither and thither the energy has to come from *somewhere*.
Imagine how many Three Gorges projects would be needed in the Western US if all the cars went electric. May as well turn all of Oregon into a reservoir...
The next one might not be so bad - it'll be the "blame my predecessor" afterglow - it's the subsequent ones that are more than a bit concerning.
..."new" oil had to come into the market to meet demand and the cost of that "new" oil is significantly more expensive to find and produce while current production continues to deplete 6%-9%/yr.
Yes, and....?
If the global economy recovers to support $140/bbl oil that's not bad news because of $4 gasoline - it's GREAT news because it means people are making money again and almost certainly a whole pile of investment is being pumped into alternatives.
If your concern is that there is only a limited buffer of existing supply at existing prices - again, so what? That's how capitalism works - *everything* we buy and sell has limited supply at prevalent prices. Oil is just one of a long list of necessary commodities with vital behavior.
If you get scared at night worrying about this stuff, remember the upside from the recent oil bull - we established once and for all that at $140/barrel we have essentially infinite oil supplies, so whatever distortions may occur we can always extract our way out of them. All we have to worry about is covering the lag time between the "oh shit" stage and turning on the taps.
There are a lot of good bogeymen to be genuinely concerned about out there - oil is not one of them.
it means that companies will not -- cannot -- go after new oil in hard to get places (which is where all of the significant finds of new oil are) because the cost of finding it and producing it has climbed to over $80/bbl net.
Dude - if gas stays cheap and the marginal cost of finding new supply is expensive - then by any definition of "market" it means demand has crumbled.
So what's the problem?
That's a great way to permanently sequester a whack of carbon!
Anyway, back in AAPL this AM in the low $99s. Have a sneaking suspicion will be holding on to this one for months...
From ABB to ABO in 24 hours....EOM.
To which Obama has explicitly promised the same level of health care Congress gives itself.
Unless the insurance providers are using federal employees as a lobbying tool - errr, loss leader - there shouldn't be any problem letting private sector insurance companies offer the same package to all Americans. If The Plan changes to "Medicare for all", then you're completely screwed, of course.
Fifty-three years from Rosa Parks on the bus to Obama as president-elect - putting aside ideological concerns I think there is a lot for Americans to be proud of tonight.
It's unfortunate the McCain of the concession speech wasn't the McCain of the campaign - I think that guy would have made this a much tighter race and possibly even won.
Thanks for reminding me :( I'm on the losing end of that (entirely non-partisan) trade.
Oh man - you are going to get brutalized for that!
Have to admit I laughed, though. :)
Ohio universally called for Obama - that's it - a hearty non-partisan congratulations to all my American friends for another non-violent "regime change" and congrats to all the Obama volunteers who made this possible.
Better start buying now, looks like this'll be a quick one.
Today was the LEAST volatile day for AAPL in a long time - so I'd like some of what Goldman is smoking that lets him see things like "yet another panic" and "torpedoed". Anyway, we'll find out in January what, if any truth lies at the bottom of this.
BTW, that IMEI spreadsheet you posted, it seems to suggest there is ~3 weeks from manufacturing floor to sales floor. That would imply anything being built right now reflects product demand for AAPL's Q1, not Q2.
I give up.
Click.
....posts like he's actually surprised iphone demand might be slowing "already"
For kriminy's sake, take an ESL course already, your reading comprehension is atrocious. I *never* said that.
Sorry, but I'm not responsible for your ongoing reading incomprehension.
you act like you posted some sort of revelation....
You act like you have no idea who you are responding to - I'm the one expecting a sub-500 SPX.
I'll vouch for that with our kids (6 & 4, one of each gender). The Touch has more or less obviated the need for a DS - kids love the games. They're not as well developed as for Nintendo, being a much newer platform and all, but it's proving to be a very decent replacement so far.
I'm all out of AAPL. Quite possible leaving a bunch on the table, but this is not a time I feel comfortable reaching for the last leg.
can iPhone demand already be slowing?
http://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Apple+(AAPL):+iPhone+production+forecast+is+now+under+pressure-+FBR/4117000.html
EDIT: Exactly - this is well-understood hardware and has been for some time. The question is why is Apple choosing this path when it clearly presents minimal technical challenges for everyone else.
These parts are not present in the current DVI products.
Is that as carefully phrased as I'd like to believe it is?
IMO you are right about it being a DRM issue. The question I'd like answered is whether Apple is just that late on getting OSX up to snuff, or if this is an intentional strategy. 'Cause the "bag of hurt" thing just does not stand up to scrutiny or logic. The Mini has had an HDMI port all along. Doing HDCP across DVI has been around for a while. There really is no significant hardware roadblock and hasn't been for some time.
Can any macs access HD source right now?
Torrents are loaded with HD material, which is the worst way all 'round for getting access to the content.
I bet they're arguing with Sony to strip the DRM...
Good luck with that approach, seeing as Sony has been shipping BluRay PCs for two years already.
Ditto. Stop stalking me! :)
Great. It has a BluRay option. How is it Dell can figure out the "bag of hurt" but Apple - who sits on the damn BluRay board - can't?
Delete - messed up. EOM.
The biggest danger is likely Apple's OSX updates - if you're willing to forgo those there is no clear reason why any of the other installed software should "brick" itself.
That said, IMO the Psystar situation is not at a point where it's suitable for someone needing "no matter what" level of availability.
There doesn't seem to be a compelling need to deny it network access...
http://store.psystar.com/faqs?frontend=5f41948e5e1713ddb09bbc559ca667df#faq13
http://store.psystar.com/faqs?frontend=5f41948e5e1713ddb09bbc559ca667df#faq14
Not just shipping...
We preinstall OS X on our Open Computers so that you can begin to use your machine right out of the box.
In all honesty, it seems to me this outfit is deliberately picking a legal fight. They have some very expensive, very experienced legal beagles working for them - it would be interesting to find out who exactly is paying the bills.
Maybe you can only get it through the app store, on a registered computer?
You mean like the handheld mobile computer known as the iPhone? Nah, something that extreme would NEVER happen with Apple.