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Re: Jim is Jim post# 80747

Thursday, 11/06/2008 5:16:30 PM

Thursday, November 06, 2008 5:16:30 PM

Post# of 147350
..."new" oil had to come into the market to meet demand and the cost of that "new" oil is significantly more expensive to find and produce while current production continues to deplete 6%-9%/yr.

Yes, and....?

If the global economy recovers to support $140/bbl oil that's not bad news because of $4 gasoline - it's GREAT news because it means people are making money again and almost certainly a whole pile of investment is being pumped into alternatives.

If your concern is that there is only a limited buffer of existing supply at existing prices - again, so what? That's how capitalism works - *everything* we buy and sell has limited supply at prevalent prices. Oil is just one of a long list of necessary commodities with vital behavior.

If you get scared at night worrying about this stuff, remember the upside from the recent oil bull - we established once and for all that at $140/barrel we have essentially infinite oil supplies, so whatever distortions may occur we can always extract our way out of them. All we have to worry about is covering the lag time between the "oh shit" stage and turning on the taps.

There are a lot of good bogeymen to be genuinely concerned about out there - oil is not one of them.





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