full-time investing; total portfolio up over 130% in 2009; but 2010 sucks!
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FEED: earnings down vs last yr and last Qtr:
Earnings per share of $0.03 and $0.11 for the three and six month 2009 periods, compared to $0.12 and $0.16 for the comparable 2008 periods.
GRS: Gammon Gold halted; news pending
PRIM: Earnings due tomorrow, so I sold my PRIMW (warrants) Friday due to writedown concerns for stalled work at Chevron site. Figured I might get a chance to buy back cheaper after earnings, but didn't wanna hold and get caught with that "Gee, I knew I should have sold" feeling.
FEED: AgFeed due out with earnings today, or so Briefing.com said. Haven't seen them yet.
Personally, I'm playing a "long, but scared to death that the double dip could show up at anytime" strategy. Trying not to hold too many thinly traded stocks (except Canadian gold and oil producers).
'peeker
My point is that after 10-20 days, his advantage from the gold trade in Euros vs. $US will tend toward the net change in Euro-$US exchange rate.
Gartman is bragging his Euro gold trade, but to me it seems a currency trade more than anything else.
Unemployment numbers 08:30am tomorrow (Nonfarm payrolls + Unemp Rate)
...
That's why so many buyers are waiting ... and sellers are taking profits ... and mkt is drifting lower ... and tomorrow we will either see a strong rally or a deep dive ...
Hold your breath ... and cross your fingers if you have any thinly trades stocks
OT: kozuh, please take this in the absolutely lightest way possible:
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fwuk wu, wabbit !!! WEMU now at $7.46 ... wippee!
Wow WEMU: I weally wove WEMU (up again today to $7.40)
TRCI was very responsible by stating that last half revs would not be as good as first half as first half revs are being boosted by large delivery to govt military customer, thus buffering overoptimistic bubbleblowing. It certainly kept me from jumping into TRCI.
'peeker
CMTP: Much appreciated. I'll try to listen in on their CC at 11.
'peeker
CMTP up strongly after earnings blowout. CC at 11am.
I'm not aware of any particular warrant issues with CMTP (our old CHID before the 1:10 reverse stock split).
Anyone have strong opinions as to a fair value for this one?
Excerpt:
Second Quarter Highlights
-- Revenue was $5.4 million, an increase of 358% from $1.2 million in 2008
-- Gross profit was $1.6 million, compared to approximately $90,000 in 2008
-- Net income was $1.3 million, compared to $(587) in 2008
-- Fully diluted earnings per share increased to $0.22 from $(0.00)
in 2008
UQM 50% cost share with govt.
Co announces it has been selected by the U.S. Department of Energy to receive a $45.1 million award under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act to accelerate the manufacturing and deployment of electric vehicles, batteries and components in America. The award provides for a 50 percent cost-share by the company raising the total value of the project to $90.2 million.
AGM appears to be better to hold than trade. I last traded out at 5.30 and I'm awishin I were still aholdin.
Same with NEP ... ugga ugga mumba mumba ... sometimes this trading game makes me feel about as smart as Our Gang's "Wild Man of Borneo".
Yum Yum Eat Em Up ...
11:06 ViroPharma: Preview of FDA Committee meeting on generic Vancocin -- decision due out later today (7.75 +0.16)
The FDA's Advisory Committee for Pharmaceutical Science and Clinical Pharmacology is meeting today to discuss bioequivalence recommendations for oral vancomycin hydrochloride capsule drug (Vancocin) products. VPHM's Vancocin is the only approved product to treat Clostridium difficile-associated pseudomembranous colitis, one of the most common and devastating hospital-acquired infections, and today's FDA Commitee's decision will determine how soon a generic version of the drug will be allowed on the market. The incidence of the disease observed in U.S. healthcare facilities more than doubled between 2000 and 2005, according to VPHM.
For some background, VPHM has had the rights to Vancocin in the United States for nearly 5 years, since the co purchased the brand from Eli Lilly. In October of 2004, the co acquired the U.S. Vancocin Brand from Eli Lilly. Under the terms of the agreement, Lilly received an upfront payment of $116 million for all rights to Vancocin in the United States. In addition, Lilly also was to participate in the potential upside through the receipt of royalties on annual net sales of Vancocin within a predefined range. On June 14, the co announced the meeting with the FDA panel discussing Vancocin.
Analysts are generally neutral on the stock ahead of the meeting. Most expect the FDA to approve a Vancocin generic and the launch of it sometime in late 2009 or early 2010. Still, analysts say that the results are basically baked in the stock at this point so an approval isn't likely to move the stock. However, if the FDA increases the speed of the launch, that could be seen as a negative for the stock. On the other hand, delays in the generic launch will be seen as a positive for VPHM. Oppenheimer noted recently that if the generic Vancocin is launched mid-way through Q4, which is the most likely scenario, the stock is worth $7/share; if generic Vancocin is launched sooner than expected, then the stock is worth $6; if the launch is delayed until late 2010, the stock is worth $12. Analysts expect a generic approval to have a sizeable impact on VPHM's sales, with expectations for Vancocin sales to fall nearly 60% in 2010 to $80 mln from $203 mln in 2009. Based on these expectations, Vancocin sales would fall from ~73% of total revs in 2009 to ~36% of total revs in FY10 (current consensus is for VPHM total FY10 revs of $220 mln). On 7/29 VPHM withdrew its Vancocin net sales guidance in light of today's meeting. Although there are no other catalysts coming up in the immediate future for VPHM, there a number of events that are anticipated to take place in 2H09 that may impact VPHM's prospects for its angioedema drug, Cinryze.
Looking at the near-term technicals, we note that the stock has resistance overhead in the 8.00-8.50 zone (Oct reaction lows through the Jul momentum highs), while support can be found through a variety of staggered levels in the 6.00-7.00 neighborhood below (previous breakout highs followed by the 20 & 50 day ema's)... Looking at valuation at the current level, the stock is trading at a P/E of 44x FY10 ests. The co is not expected to be profitable in 2009 and revs are expected to drop over 20% next year due to the expected launch of a Vancocin generic.
TBUS ... any insight on expected earnings date?
I don't see it scheduled for this week.
'peeker
IMF Gold Sales May Begin in 2010, Citigroup Forecasts (Update1)
By Claudia Carpenter
July 31 (Bloomberg) -- The International Monetary Fund will probably sell 200 metric tons of gold annually starting next year, “potentially weighing on prices,” Citigroup Inc. said in a report e-mailed today.
Gold will fall to $850 an ounce in the second half of 2010, Citigroup Sydney-based analyst Alan Heap wrote in the report. The IMF board will approve a gold sale before its annual meeting in October, Reza Moghadam, director of strategy, policy and review, said on July 29. A planned sale of 13 million ounces (403 tons) was accepted by the U.S. last month.
“We believe the sell down will likely begin in 2010 and see around 200 tons sold per year, potentially weighing on prices,” Heap wrote in the report.
Gold for immediate delivery rose 91 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $935.32 an ounce by 1:27 p.m. in London. The price may rise to $1,000 in the first six months of 2010, according to Heap.
The IMF owns 3,217 tons of gold, the third-largest holder of gold after the U.S. and Germany, according to data compiled by London-based research company GFMS Ltd. A sale of 200 tons would compare with 246 tons disposed last year by central banks, according to GFMS.
European central banks have an agreement to limit their gold sales to 500 tons a year, and that arrangement expires in September. A new accord has not been announced.
“The central bank agreement is expected to be renewed after it expires in September, although, in our view, it could now perhaps afford to be more relaxed in terms of annual limits and allocating quotas,” Barclays Capital analyst Suki Cooper wrote in a report today.
To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net
Bullish Stock Market !
Think of it this way ... say you had a million dollars, would you feel comfortable:
1. buying US treasuries earnings about 3% with a high probability of inflation that would drop the face value of the instrument?
2. buying real estate with most markets continuing to go down while foreclosures continue to rise?
3. leaving your life savings in cash, knowing that inevitable inflation would eat into the buying power of the cash?
Meanwhile the Stock Market has continued to go higher on anticipation of the eventual end of this worst recession/depression of our lifetime. Thus, the Stock Market seems a relatively safe place, assuming no unexpected disasters caused by external terrorists or internal bank terrorists. The economy is so slow, you gotta expect it to move up from this low level eventually.
12:19 IMF Gold Sales will probably push gold price down.
DJ reports the International Monetary Fund's board will likely approve sale of some of its gold by the fund's October meetings in Turkey, an IMF official said. Once approved by 85% of the voting power of the IMF's member countries, the sale of gold currently worth about $12 billion is expected to be conducted over time in coordination with regular sales by central banks to avoid any market impact, said Reza Moghadam, director of the strategy, policy and review department. "My guess is that the decision would formally be considered and hopefully endorsed before the Istanbul annual meetings, and then the actual sales would take place through that mechanism of central banks over time," Moghadam told reporters on a conference call. The annual meetings will be Oct. 6-7.
ADL info by JoeNatural spooked me too. I had bought my ADL before that and was getting pretty worried as it fell to .70 area. Rather than skill, I think of that one as a lucky trade. Can't depend on being lucky as a trading strategy, but can certainly enjoy it when it happens.
Whoo Whoo
WE MUUUUU
ADL: I just took the quick gain; sold today at .90 on the pop after buying yesterday at .80; this could be a good trading stock if it keeps the volatility. Also tried to flip NEP and CMTP today but didn't quite hit my targets.
WEMU: When I saw volume and price taking off again today, I raised my asking price into the sevens.
OCANF.pk: Added some today around .87 on the (deep) dip. Hopefully I don't get paid in Kiwi pyrite and sheep dip.
AGT: Nice June production news, and I was surprised it didn't take them higher, but some saw the value as it went up while gold was falling $15. Maybe AGT'll get more analyst coverage now that they have some numbers for an analyst to crunch.
In WEMU we trust... Quite a run last couple of days!!!
Crapshoot: Bought YHOO at 17.45 2 days ago:
Tech Crunch reports the much anticipated Microsoft/Yahoo (MSFT) search alliance is in the "final stages of negotiation" says a source close to Yahoo, and may be signed at any time. The two companies have been negotiating the terms of the transaction for weeks, and our source says that the deal guys are largely out of the process now. The lawyers are negotiating the final details. That doesn't mean the deal is guaranteed, of course. But everything we're hearing says it's highly likely. The deal will be announced publicly shortly after it's signed, and could come "today, tomorrow, next week" according to our source. Most of the negotiations have been over an up front payment to Yahoo, speculated to be in the $500 million - $1 billion range. The size and specifics of the up front payment have been a sticking point, including whether it is a simple payment for the deal or a guarantee on future revenues. We have no additional information on where the two companies ended up on that deal term.
CMTP getting the "CHID" knocked out of it today (Down about 16%).
ADL also getting flogged, back down to low .70s.
Several little gold stocks also getting slapped around (OCANF.pk, HWTHF.pk, BGLPF.pk)
Recently bought NEP, ADL, IACAF, HWTHF, OCANF, CMTP while shedding AGM, FEED, DXCM, PGH, CEU. It's always a waste of time and focus to compare what happens to the ones you sell vs. the ones you buy, but hey, we're human.
Good luck all ...
'peeker
LPIH had a good move today; so did NEP after the close.
Anyone hear a good reason for why NEP popped after the close?
Followup on Chinese stocks. The article says these Chinese stocks are ranked based on difference between Wall St. analysts' average target price and current price.
http://www.cnanalyst.com/2009/07/top-10-uslisted-chinese-stocks-with-the-most-upside-potential-updated-7232009.html
Worth looking at the list. Some of our Chinese faves are shown along with many others we may not have looked at before. Of course there's no way of telling which analysts they used to make their list either.
Without having looked already, I'd be curious to see whether the highest ranking correlates with low prices or fewest analysts.
WEMU showing some WE-OOOOOMPH!
Nice move last 2 days; perhaps they'll announce another big contract or officially announce application for an AMEX listing soon.
Swing Trader (Briefing.com): Fragile Trading Environment Surrounding Earnings and Month-End
On Thursday the market extended its multi-day rally leaving the SPX up +12% in the last 12 sessions off its July 869 reaction low and the Nasdaq up +14% during that same timeframe. Majority of technical indicators are suggesting a near-term overbought environment which is fairly obvious as we've seen a series of higher highs and lower lows over the last 2-weeks for strong gains. Overall this is not the ideal time to be considering a Swing Long as the odds favor some sort of corrective/consolidation over the next few days.
Looking at the SPX chart below, we see price action closed above its upper Bollinger Band (974) which is always a red flag as it represent a mathematical (standard deviation) extreme from its popular 20-day moving average. Note it is not a sell signal as price alone needs to confirm, but it does suggest the upward momentum will likely slow down in the near-term.
Also note the upper trendlines off the June/July highs that come into play here as well. The dotted red line connects the closing highs and the solid red line connects the reaction highs themselves. They suggest the next resistance zone for the SPX lies between 980/1000. Above that zone, the 38% retracement off the 2007 high (1576) comes into play around 1014.
One caveat to this overbought state has been the Put/Call ratio this week (shown below as the $CPC indicator). It shows a relatively high/neutral reading during this rally suggesting Put Buying (or bets the market will go down) is modestly high. Historically, the Put/Call ratio is deemed as a contrarian indicator, so my guess is we only see maybe a 1 or 2 day correction that holds above the early June 950/956 highs that should potentially set up another round of buying for a month-end rally late next week.
Bottom line is avoid buying into strength (higher highs) outside of a daytrade. If you're fading or Shorting this strength, realize buyers that missed out on this rally will be lurking on each significant correction to key support levels.
On the SPX chart below I show the possible areas of support if the market corrects aggressively. First up is the early June resistance zone around 950/956. It is a common technical phenomenon to see "old resistance" become "new support." If that doesn't hold, then look to the 38% retracement of this rally near 937 which should line up with the 20-day exponential moving average if challenged. Below that is the early July high near 930/931 followed by the 50% retracement of 924 which should line up with the 50-day simple moving average if met.
The table below shows the Absolute Performance of the 9 SPX sectors for the month of July so far. Basic Materials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary have seen the majority of gains and should be your focus into next week's month-end for the best trading opportunities.
Below is the Relative Performance of each of the 9 sectors in comparison to the SPX. Again we see Basic Materials, Technology and Discretionary outperforming. It always helps to focus on strong performing groups for buying opportunities and underperforming groups for shorting opportunities.
DIT looks good, especially to the CEO, whose June30 purchase of 100K shares at $38ish is up over $2million in less than a month.
Low number of shares outstanding and Very Low Float; I sure wish we'd caught this one 2 wks ago.
Thanks!
'peeker
TRGD down 3cents today; perhaps the marching band has taken a wrong turn and found itself playing tunes in a blind alley.
14:38 Briefing.com FloorTalk (Momentum; up is path of least resistance!!!)
Our analysts have posted on a number of significant items on the page today, so we'll try to tie some of them together here.
1) Investors need to respect this momentum, even if they are skeptical of its underpinnings. What we mean by that is, even during such a headline-driven environment as earnings season, in a momentum-driven market individual news items such as earnings reports or economic data (which were generally supportive again this morning) lose some of their ability to dictate the direction of the market. In other words, regardless of the headlines, there is an assumption right now that pullbacks, however brief, will be bought. The path of least resistance has been up ever since Goldman's and Intel's earnings reports (see the July 15 & 16 TALKX comments in the archive), so for the near-term we are perfectly capable of rallying on a simple "lack of bad news" right now. To-date, this has caused a lot of pain for those shorting stocks on a bad earnings report (look at POT or CMG today) or "because we're overbought".
2) The new AAII and Investors Intelligence sentiment data released over the past 24 hours shows that there has been almost no move toward bullishness during this rally. So even while it may feel like the bulls' exuberance is getting a bit excessive (if you're watching the market on an intraday basis), this data shows that there is still a lot of skepticism out there, which implies that there is still plenty of cash on the sidelines that could flow into equities.
3) As our technical analysts have noted several times, the Financials have been badly lagging during the recent rally (not going down so much, as simply not participating). Typically, the Financials are one of the main "tells" for the market and this type of action would raise a big red flag. But there is a contrarian way of looking at the Banks now. This terribly distressed group has had huge runs off the March lows, and by many standards the banks are at least fairly valued, if not overvalued. Yet the outlooks have been positive enough that you're really not seeing the "sell the news" reaction that one might have expected now that "the good news is out". By simply moving sideways when you might expect them to be sold, this could be interpreted as at the very least supportive for the market.
4) Another factor that's adding to the upside momentum is purely technical, in that a lot of overhead supply is being eliminated. This is another way of saying that "a lot of stocks are breaking out right now." What this means in terms of supply and demand is that even those buyers who were late to the March rally and who quickly found themselves underwater in early July, are now suddenly showing a paper profit and are thus less likely to sell today than they were even just a few days ago. On a larger scale, the S&P 500 itself, which has been notably lagging the Tech-heavy Nasdaq Comp, finally broke out above the key technical resistance level marked by its June high of 956. Assuming we're able to close comfortably above 956 today, this breakout will be a significant technical event that will bolster the bullish argument.
We're certainly due for some profit-taking after rallying for nine straight days, and it wouldn't be surprising if a miss by a widely-watched company will provide that excuse. But in spite of the overbought nature of this market, the near-term operating assumption has to be that pullbacks will be bought and that the path of least resistance continues to be higher.
CKSW, thanks to HWEB for posting. I bought 4Ksh at 7.10, sold half at 7.35 and the rest at 7.65, then immediately began wallowing in regret as it went right on up to $8.00.
I'm past the wallowing stage now and back to celebrating a nice daytrade.
Thanks!!!
'peeker
AGT, in the interest of transparency, needs to be reporting how much ore they are running thru the mill and how much gold they produced for May, June.
Gray Fox is an interesting sidenote at this point; yes, it will eventually lead to increased proved and inferred resource. However, IMHO, since AGT is now a "producer" rather than "explorer", I've gotta believe most shareholders are much more interested in details about Black Fox operations.
'peeker
PS> ... yeah, I'm cranky today ... again
14:31 PZG: Paramount Gold and Silver and Klondex Mines to combine; each Klondex share will be exchanged for 1.45 Paramount shares (1.49 +0.05)
The co and Klondex Mines announce that they have entered into a binding letter agreement to combine the two companies under a plan of arrangement, in a transaction valued at ~C$80 million. The Letter Agreement has been unanimously approved by the Board of Directors of each of Paramount and Klondex. Pursuant to the Letter Agreement, each Klondex share will be exchanged for 1.45 Paramount shares, implying a purchase price of C$2.32 per Klondex share using closing share prices on the TSX on July 17, 2009. The Transaction represents a premium of 33.3% to the closing price of Klondex shares and a 30.3% premium to the implied value of the unsolicited proposal by Silvercorp Metals as of July 17, 2009. The Silvercorp proposal was announced on June 8, 2009, and was rejected by the Klondex Board of Directors as providing inadequate consideration for Klondex shareholders. (PZG is currently halted)
India Potash (IPL) purchase contracts being negotiated w/ Israel and German producers .... in line w/ recent Russian producer contracts ....
12:17 today: In a continuation of recent potash purchase contracts, India Potash Limited (IPL) agreed today to purchase potash from Israel Chemicals for $460/metric ton, according to Bloomberg. The fertilizer stocks (POT, MOS, AGU, IPI , CF, TRA), and more specifically potash stocks (POT, MOS, IPI), are having a muted reaction to the IPL news as the $460/metric ton price falls in-line with purchases concluded with Russian potash producer Silvinit 10 days ago (which was a negative surprise at the time and put pressure on potash stocks). While the pricing is in line with the recent Silvinit contract, the story also said that IPL will hold discussions tomorrow with large German potash producer K+S. Given K+S size and ability to influence the U.S. stocks, tomorrow's event could result in headlines that cause volatility in U.S. potash names. Following the two recent contracts at $460/ton, any other price may be viewed as a surprise.
AGT: Seeking Alpha update posted today ("risky")
http://seekingalpha.com/article/149747-apollo-gold-still-a-risky-proposition-for-most-blackmont?source=yahoo
FYI: Found Stoxline site today (free). Just plug in a stock and see what the tech indicators are. Shows support levels among other things. Seems decent for a quick tech check on any stock. I presume it pulls data from some historical data source, does some analysis on the fly, and presents the data ASAP.
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=TGA
AGT: Found Stoxline site today. Just plug in a stock and see what the tech indicators are. Shows support levels among other things. Seems decent for a quick tech check on any stock. I presume it does the analysis on the fly and presents the data ASAP.
http://www.stoxline.com/quote.php?symbol=AGT
FORE, I've owned a lot of TRGD for a long time, well before there was a TARM\, so you will never catch me singing the chorus of any songs that laud the CEO.
My anger toward the man derives from the lies that he has told to investors over the years (2wks this, 2wks that, my freaking a$$), the shares he paid himself for loaning money to the company (at least that's what they said, but it may be one of many reasons that financials will never be completed), and the total lack of transparency he has exhibited over the years.
The man would mine LEAD and claim he had found black gold, knowing full-well that Merlin's finest alchemists could never make it so.
If you want to talk about the possibilities that TRGD and TARM have to be successful, that's fine with me, and I hope they do go up over time, but don't start singing Biscan psalms and expect me to join it. I'd always be inclined to pull the fire alarm and yell, "Stop the music".
I plan to hold TRGD for awhile longer, but I will always contest statements that praise Biscan's great work or good intentions. He's nothing but a snake to me, and I've seen the spots on his slithering underbelly.
Much love, and a great weekend to all (but one Dick Biscuit),
'peeker
W R O N G ... TARM hired the IR firm:
Tara Minerals Corp. (OTC.BB:TARM - News) is pleased to announce that the company has retained Catalyst Xchange Corp. to provide investor relations services.
If Dick has a plan, it isn't for the benefit of TRGD shareholders. Financials for TRGD will not happen, and TARM will eventually be spun off. He may be passing TRGD assets thru to the new US subsidiary of TARM.
'peeker
Captain Dan, IMHO, we are living in a risky world, and the snakes do bite.
Your trusting statements such as "Biscan and his fine staff" and "TRGD accounting will be brought up to compliance" are examples of trust gone wild.
I hope TRGD and TARM both do well, but my 8ball still says "No way, Jose".
Regards,
'peeker (Forrest)
PS> Are you affiliated in any way or compensated in any way by TRGD? How could you possibly know or have the opinion that "TRGD accounting will be brought up to compliance"?