HIDE !!!
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afceast - Marshell/Sino & TIN have posted some thoughts on that subject. Sounds from their words that "once the approval is done.....it moves quite quickly through prospectus, etc.".
I do not have application date....perhaps someone can post it.
EZ
OT: I repost this from another board....but ADD to it "that it is something I believe in also" !! 6 mo., 1 yr., 2 yrs. from now there WILL BE many millonaires made from this current market level ~~~~ I believe you CAN take that to the bank :) EZ
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New Millionaires Rising~~~
There will be scores of new millionaires rising from the ashes of this oversold market. To become a new millionaire, there will be two requirements: timing and courage.
In addition to individual wealth, the companies that come out of this will be tested and much stronger just like the giants that made if out of the great depression.
JB Oxford is snapping up smaller brokerage companies at this level. I thank that is smart. DBTX is working on a truly non invasive blood glucose monitor. Life goes on. Savvy investors........Carpe Diem.
Yup, we're getting close to 'begging' for survival :)
Saturday April 7 4:27 PM ET
Internet Firms Turn to Old-Fashioned Fund Raising
By Andrea Orr
PALO ALTO, Calif. (Reuters) - Not-for-profit groups seeking money for a worthy cause often ask people to think of the children who don't have enough to eat, families that lack housing, or communities with no arts endowments.
This week some for-profit Internet businesses are asking people to imagine a world where tourists would no longer have access to Yahoo! (NasdaqNM:YHOO - news) Maps and home improvement buffs would not be able to order their power tools from Amazon.com Inc. (NasdaqNM:AMZN - news).
Those companies might not be fall under everyone's definition of neediest causes, but the fund drive was no joke.
Some 35 Internet sites, ranging from the niche content community ThemeStream.com to the major Internet service provider ExciteAtHome Corp. (NasdaqNM:ATHM - news) came together Tuesday behind the first-ever ``Back the Net'' initiative.
Together, they called on those who care about the future of the Internet to go out and buy something online, give money to an online charity, or purchase 10 shares of stock of their favorite dot-com company.
A letter from sponsors that was posted online and circulated through e-mail, alerted a Net savvy crowd: ``Your help is needed. ... Imagine the Internet without Excite, Yahoo! or Amazon.com.''
Software maker McAfee.com Corp. (NasdaqNM:MCAF - news) said it would do its part to restore confidence in Internet companies by offering its Internet security products at a discount.
``More than ever, Internet economy leaders need to step forward to instill confidence among users.'' a McAfee manager said in a statement explaining the company's decision to participate in the effort. ``Offering our products at specially reduced prices, we believe, will show Internet consumers that they can rely on Web based applications and services to address their many security concerns.''
And hopefully sell a lot of software, too.
Big Web Companies Bow Out
The online news site http://www.Iconoclast.com, which organized the effort, spoke in similarly alarming tones, highlighting the plight of the industry.
``We need to recognize this is an industry that needs support and is a major driver of our economy,'' Michael Tchong said in an interview. ``If it is shut down, we are going to drag the whole country into recession.''
``I think technology is a core part of our economy. After entertainment, technology is perhaps America's biggest export. If we are not showing our support for the medium, it will wither for a very long time to come. This one day (Back The Net) is sort of like Earth Day.''
To be sure, the effort was controversial and many took issue with the notion that the Internet was in any danger of going away in the first place, or that consumers should be held responsible for keeping alive Web companies with shaky business models.
What initially looked like a long list of participants, was actually quite small considering the whole Web universe, and most major Internet companies did not associate themselves with the appeal.
Although Iconoclast was predicting a huge surge in Internet activity on April 3, the company was unavailable late in the day to provide an update, and the signs that were available suggested that Tuesday had not been the best day for Internet businesses.
The tech-heavy NASDAQ index fell more than 100 points and auditors of the once-celebrated Internet grocer Webvan Group Inc. (NasdaqNM:WBVN - news) expressed doubts about the company's ability to stay in business.
For the record, Amazon and Yahoo did not participate in Back The Net, and Amazon said it begged to differ with the notion that it was on the brink of failure.
Virtual Tipping Jar
More interesting, though, was some of the unofficial support the effort drew. Greg Larson, president of the United Way's Silicon Valley division, admitted he had a soft spot for the Internet, since it had made it easier for people to donate money to his organization.
``Over half of workplace giving is being done online,'' said Larson. Asked about the logic of presenting a dot-com as a needy cause, he replied, ``If people want to invest in their community, I think the best way to do that is to give to the nonprofit organizations that serve the most needy.
And Amazon said it was taking steps of its own to encourage Internet users to help out their favorite sites, whether they be dot-coms or dot-orgs.
``We recognize that good sites are not going to be able to exist on their own for much longer, and the advertising revenue model is not going to pan out,'' explained Amazon spokeswoman Patty Smith. In an effort to support some struggling sites Amazon two months ago launched a program for Internet users to ''tip'' their favorite sites, by linking those sites back to the Amazon billing system, which has millions of customer credit card accounts on file.
At least 70 -- mostly marginal -- Web sites, including the poetry site http://www.eMule.com, the quirky cartoon site http://www.KillFrog.com, and the online museum of Internet advertising, http://www.BannerAdMuseum.com are participating in Amazon's program.
So now, Web surfers in search of nothing more than laughs or virtual conversation are given a little guilt when they visit their favorite sites.
``So you love the free cartoons over at KillFrog.com do you!,'' is the message that appears on that site's start page. ''Well now you can help feed them too! Cough up some dough so some of the poor little cartoons over at KillFrog.com can eat something other than Ramen Noodles four times a day.''
yet, another option in these choppy markets:
Saturday April 7 3:53 PM ET
Taking Advantage of Bear Market
By Brendan Intindola
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Have you lost faith, and money, waiting for a stock market turnaround?
Then maybe it's time to join the short sellers, the bears who have found a honey pot in the U.S. equity rout, profiting from falling prices while most other investors are swilling red ink.
Mutual funds that ``short'' the market, an easy way for individuals to profit from market declines, have posted big gains in recent months, as stock prices have declined.
By contrast, in the first quarter U.S. stock funds that own stocks, or are ``long'' the market, have had the worst returns in more than two years as the bearishness in technology stocks spread to the broader market.
But when the market is dropping, short sellers come out on top because they have borrowed stock and then resold it on a bet the price will fall. If their bet is right, they can buy the stock again after the price drops and then return it to the lender, pocketing the difference as profit.
Hedge Like The Pros
Michael Sapir, chief executive of ProFunds in Bethesda, Md., a fund family with $2 billion in assets that includes the red-hot UltraShort OTC, said these types of short-selling investments are best used as a tactical, short-term hedge within a larger portfolio.
The UltraShort OTC fund, up nearly 62 percent in the first quarter, is an ``inverse index fund'' with a stated goal of returning twice the opposite performance of the Nasdaq 100 index (^NDX - news). If the Nasdaq 100 index falls, say, 50 percent in a given period, the fund would rise 100 percent.
``It is like an index fund on a mirror,'' Sapir said. ``We can short individual stocks, but that is not the most efficient way.''
Short-fund portfolio managers often rely on so-called ``put'' options, which act like insurance policies by giving the right to sell a stock at a set price by a certain date.
Suppose IBM is trading at $92 per share and an investor thinks it will fall to $90 by June. She might buy an IBM June 90 put, giving her the right to sell the stock at $90. If the price goes to $82 per share, the value of that option would increase. If the stock price rises, the investor would book the cost of the contract as a loss.
Similar instruments exist for equity indexes, like the Standard & Poor's 500, allowing portfolio managers to make bets covering broad market moves.
``We think these funds are good short-term tools. We don't think they are buy-and-hold funds. People are using these funds to hedge a portfolio, just like professionals have been doing for a long time,'' Sapir said.
``So if investors believe in the long-term prospects for tech stocks and would rather not sell, they may want to put a hedge on for three to six months. So you can have a good hedge against a market decline. It limits your upside obviously, but it limits your downside too,'' Sapir said.
Weakness In Numbers
U.S. diversified stock funds fell 13.1 percent in the first quarter, according to data from mutual funds tracking firm Lipper Inc. The decline is the worst since the third quarter of 1998 when Russia's financial crisis and the near-collapse of hedge fund Long Term Capital Management drove markets lower.
An average of about a dozen U.S. short funds prepared by Lipper showed a gain of 28.6 percent in the first three months of 2001. And for the 12 months ended March 31, the average gain was 75.2 percent.
From all-time highs reached in the first quarter of 2000, the Nasdaq composite has fallen 67 percent, the Dow is off nearly 19 percent and the S&P 500, the benchmark for judging investing pros, is down nearly 28 percent.
A Newer Option, Not Widely Known
Over the last six months to a year, Sapir said, there are many relatively new investors who have not experienced such sharp declines in stock prices. These types of funds were not available during the last bear market.
``Most retail investors do not know how to short the bear market, and they may not have the margin account to allow them to short. And if you are dealing pension assets, even down to the individual level in IRA accounts, generally you cannot short these accounts, but you can buy mutual funds,'' he said.
Prudent Bear: Look For Dow 3,000
David Tice, the Dallas-based manager of the Prudent Bear Fund, said he believes U.S. stocks are just ``in the early innings'' of a significant decline.
Tice, whose $175 million fund gained nearly 16 percent in the first quarter, said he expects the Dow Jones Industrial average to drop below 3,000 over the next 12 to 18 months, and the Nasdaq composite to skid to below 500 over the same time period.
The Wall Street establishment, however, is betting on a comeback by stocks, although targets for major indexes set by the brokerages have been pared back recently.
An average of year-end targets forecast by the major sell-side houses has the S&P 500 up 40 percent in 2001, the Dow gaining 33 percent, and the Nasdaq composite rising 80 percent.
But in the bull-bear fight that is as old as the stock market, Tice swings a clawed paw at the optimists. He points out the price-earnings ratio of the broad market -- or the share prices of all S&P 500 stocks divided by the group's combined ''trailing'' earnings per share for the previous 12 months -- is still very high in historical terms.
``We started our fund (in 1996) because we felt the market was overvalued. We still believe that we are just in the early innings of a decline,'' Tice said.
In bear cycles, as markets typically fall, rise, and fall again, price-earnings multiples proceed from low to high and back to low, Tice said.
``Even with the Nasdaq down significantly, we believe this is nowhere close to a bottom because we are selling at 24 times trailing earnings for the Standard & Poor's 500.'' That is only 6 notches lower than the S&P 500's P/E ratio of 30 at the market's peak in 1999. In 1982, the ratio was as low as 7.
``It is like a pendulum -- you swing too far to the right, it is going to swing back to the left. It was extreme euphoria that will probably end in extreme despair,'' Tice said.
What about the longer-term benefits investors are expecting from three interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year to juice up the tottering U.S. economy?
Tice hearkened back to the bear market of 1973-74.
The conventional wisdom ``is after three cuts, the market has no where to go but up. But, if you look at the 1973-74 period, by the time the market started higher, the market was 70 percent off its highs and was selling at a P/E ratio of 7.''
The U.S. central bank lowered interest rates repeatedly over two years beginning in late 1974. For the S&P 500, 1973 and 1974 are the only two straight down years since 1950. The index fell 17.4 percent in 1973, and nearly 30 percent in 1974. As the economy recovered, the S&P 500 gained 31.5 percent in 1975 and 19.1 percent in 1976.
While he declined to name specific short positions held by his fund, Tice said it is ``still short semiconductors, lots of tech companies, semiconductor equipment manufacturers, and we are short financials -- subprime lenders, money center banks and brokers.''
What areas of the market will be spared the further mauling predicted by Tice? ``We think gold and silver mining companies will go higher, and defense contractors will go higher,'' he said.
For the week, the Nasdaq Composite index fell about 120 points, or 6.5 percent to 1,720, the Dow Jones Industrial average lost nearly 90 points, or 0.9 percent, to 9,791 and the S&P 500 dropped almost 32 points, or 2.7 percent to 1,128.
The Coming Week
The Coming Week: Will They or Won't They? Rate Cuts to Take Center Stage Again
By Kristen French
Staff Reporter
4/8/01 12:30 AM ET
URL: http://www.thestreet.com/markets/thecomingweek/1381092.html
After taking a backseat to earnings concerns in the past two weeks, rate-cut obsession could saddle Wall Street again in the coming week.
Friday's weak jobs report inspired optimism in some camps that the Fed might step up its interest rate cutting schedule and make its next move as soon as this week. Merrill Lynch, for one, issued a report shortly after the data was released predicting that the Fed could lop off as much as 50 basis points from the current Fed funds rate of 5% before Friday. The employment data showed a steep drop-off in payrolls in March, combined with inflationary strength in average hourly earnings.
"We believe this report will pressure the Fed to move and increases the likelihood the Fed will ease next week," said Merrill Lynch's report. "We think this report was too weak in and of itself to permit them to wait until May. We would look for a 50 basis-point cut possibly next week."
But Friday's market drubbing may indicate that the skeptics still outnumber the optimists. Stocks stumbled into the close, giving back much of the gains won during Thursday's record-breaking rally. The nonbelievers cite recent speeches by various Fed officials, in which they have intimated their belief that an economy recovery is due for the second half of this year. These bears say an economic recovery could be much further out, and that such optimism from Fed officials suggests they aren't alarmed enough to cut rates prior to the May 15 meeting.
Meanwhile, Dallas Fed president Robert McTeer, a nonvoting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, said the employment figures were not what he liked to see, but that they could have been worse. "It's bad to see employment decline, but the amount of the decline was moderate compared to what it could be," McTeer told journalists.
McTeer also noted that the 4.3% unemployment rate was still "very close" to the 30-year low of 3.9%.
Still, Fed officials have also said they are monitoring the economy closely, and any further indication of severe deterioration from data released this coming week could launch them into action. The March retail sales report, which is to be released Thursday, April 12, will be particularly important to watch.
Recent consumer confidence and sentiment indicators suggest consumers are feeling pretty groovy, and that bodes well for consumer spending, the biggest contributor to economic growth in the U.S. These indicators may be helping to stay the Fed's hand. So if retail sales belie the consumer confidence data, Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan and his merry band might be more inclined to come to the rescue. Economists polled by Reuters are forecasting flat growth in retail sales compared to February -- an improvement nonetheless, since retail sales fell 0.2% in February.
The Fed has been reluctant to be more aggressive about cutting rates thus far, say some, because the economic data has not pointed to a traditional economic recession. While it's clear that U.S. businesses are being hit by a profits recession, the traditional indicators of an economic recession -- weakness in housing, consumer confidence and employment -- have all held up relatively well.
As chatter about interest rates escalates ahead of that retail sales report, first-quarter earnings season will begin to unfold. Dow component and aluminum goliath Alcoa(AA:NYSE) kicked off the earnings season last Thursday, and more reports are on the way in the week ahead. Ones to watch: mobile phone maker Motorola(MOT:NYSE) on Tuesday, Internet giant Yahoo!(YHOO:Nasdaq) on Wednesday, and e-services outfit DoubleClick(DCLK:Nasdaq) and Dow component and diversified industrial General Electric(GE:NYSE) on Thursday.
Some consider that Motorola will set the tone for the whole technology sector when it reports this week. The company is involved in many different industries, so it's seen as a good indicator. The company has lowered its estimates for the first quarter twice already, and on Friday, concerns over a possible liquidity crisis surfaced, forcing the company to issue a denial. Analysts are expecting a first-quarter loss of between a penny and 14 cents, compared with a profit of 20 cents last year, according to Thompson Financial/First Call.
Yahoo! also warned in early March that its earnings would fall far short of the Street's estimates. But the company got a break yesterday when Lehman Brothers analyst Holly Becker upgraded the company to a buy from market perform, saying it was finally cheap enough to buy. TheStreet.com's Peter Eavis has a more sober outlook on the company.
Meanwhile, GE is looking a little better on the earnings front. With the largest market capitalization of any company on the NYSE, GE last month confirmed its earnings estimates of 30 cents a share for the first quarter and said it would deliver on the double-digit growth expected for 2001.
Investors will be particularly keen on hearing what kind of guidance companies offer on earnings performance for future quarters. Thursday's rip-roaring rally indicated that hopes are budding that all the bad news is out, and that earnings have to improve from here. The rally was partially inspired by an announcement from PC-maker Dell(DELL:Nasdaq), which said it expected to meet its first-quarter targets. The company was mum, however, on the rest of the year. The pros say that until the fog clears regarding a recovery in earnings and in the economy, gains will be hard to sustain.
At least market sentiment seems to have improved. The bulls say Thursday's bounce and the moderation witnessed in Friday's rally are at least indications that the market may have successfully retested its lows and is finally beginning to build a bottom. Investors sold stocks furiously during March and the first few days of April, and some think the market now can't go any lower. The Nasdaq is 66% off its highs of last March, the S&P 500 is 26% below its peak, and the Dow is 16% below its January summit.
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The news just gets 'better' !!!!!
Wednesday April 4, 4:48 am Eastern Time
Press Release
SOURCE: Kanakaris Wireless
Kanakaris Wireless Successfully Beta Tests 24 Hour Wireless TV Channel With Huge Potential Worldwide Viewing Audience;
KANWIN Sales Army Will Lead Revenue Push for Next Step in TV
ALISO VIEJO, Calif., April 4 /PRNewswire/ -- Kanakaris Wireless (OTC Bulletin Board: KKRS - news), announced that it has successfully completed a Beta test (on April 3, 2001) broadcast of its upcoming 24 hour digital television channel with wireless delivery to multiple platform Internet enabled devices worldwide ranging from PocketPCs to big screen TVs.
``We have a live Beta feed to a confidential URL in progress and, as a small company now emerging into the limelight of major consumer and business services, truly feel like we are in outer space -- in this case cyber space -- landing the first man on the moon,'' said Robert Wood, CTO, Kanakaris Wireless.
``Our CEO has been following a plan of expansion for over five years based on what Ted Turner did for TV distribution with channels like WTBS, CNN, etc. We have now given Kanakaris Wireless the technology necessary to take the creation of new TV channels to a wireless distribution modality which is multi-platform compatible and includes world distribution to places TV has never gone before, such as the PocketPC,'' Mr. Wood added.
Kanakaris Wireless plans to launch its 24 hour TV channel, a sister site to CinemaPop.com and a showcase for Kanakaris proprietary technology and place for sponsorships, within 60 days. The URL will be announced next week, including online information on the multiple ways to access the channel. Kanakaris itself is now selling DSL and SuperBroadband(TM) connectivity which enable a high quality worldwide reception to the new channel.
Kanakaris is currently hiring a sales army to bring the site to the attention of national TV brand marketers.
For further information on Kanakaris Wireless (www.KanakarisWireless.com, www.CinemaPop.com) please call Shareholder Relations: Colby Marceau, 714-444-0560. For media interviews only contact 714-235-2539.
Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.
With the exception of historical information, the matters discussed in this press release are forward-looking statements that involve a number of risk and uncertainties. The actual future results of Kanakaris Wireless could differ from those statements. Factors that could cause or contribute to such differences include, but are not limited to, our ability to obtain financing as the need arises, the overall state of the Internet and e-commerce industries and the data control console industry, economic conditions generally, the financial health of our customers, market acceptance of new product or service introductions by us or our competitors, the timing of expenditures in anticipation of future sales, returns of our data control console products and the timing and nature of revenues from our Internet and e-commerce businesses and data control console product sales that are recognized during any particular quarter. The inclusion of forward-looking statements should not be regarded as a representation or guarantee by Kanakaris Wireless or any other person that our objectives or plans will be achieved.
CinemaWEAR, KANWIN and SuperBroadband are trademarks of Kanakaris Wireless.
SOURCE: Kanakaris Wireless
Email : info@otcjournal.com
URL : http://www.otcjournal.com
To OTC Journal Members:
What's Going on With the Economy?
There is a nearly unexplainable dichotomy occurring in the economic numbers coming out these days. Public companies, particularly in the technology sector are screaming doom and gloom as company after company announces severely reduced forecasts for the remainder of the year. We are getting very tired of hearing from management about cutbacks in IT spending from all of their customers. The latest buzz phrase to describe this slowdown is "lack of visibility", meaning they have no idea what will happen for the remainder of the year.
In spite of the virtual black hole in the technology sector, trailing economic numbers suggest a minor slow down, but give no indication of the hard core, long term recession being priced into technology stocks.
Housing starts and home resales continue at a brisk pace. The consumer, who represents 2/3 of economic activity, is still spending at historically high rates. Friday's unemployment report provided the first true glimpse of a slow-down, with unemployment coming in at 4.3%, the highest in 20 months.
Spokespersons from the Federal Reserve continue to boldly predict a recovery in the second half of the year, perhaps in an effort to justify the FED's stubborn refusal to accelerate lowering interest rates to stimulate the economy.
The big question- How can the economy be holding up so well while the technology sector is in a full blown recession? In our opinion, the answer can be found by looking back at the last five years and using your common sense. Very simply- It's Wall Street's fault.
The Greatest Bull Market In History- Greed Drives Wall Street
1995 through March of 2000 could arguably be called the greatest bull market in history, fueled by a revolution in technology, and led by the emergence of the Internet.
Trillions of dollars were raised in thousands of private placements, IPOs, secondaries, and debt instruments. Dozens of companies with nothing more than business plans were receiving hundreds of millions of dollars in funding.
It was all working because the market was going straight up and the fees being generated were beyond Wall Street's wildest dreams. As we all learned in the most painful way possible, Wall Street was providing billions for companies with flawed and unproven business models simply for the fees.
Where does this leave us today- The trillions invested in these technology companies led us to an excess supply of new technology. Wall Street's enthusiasm to fund every technology idea when the fees were there for the taking has led us to a huge excess supply.
As usual, the free market economy works perfectly. An excess supply, coupled with decreasing demand, results in much lower prices and lower demand for products and services, which leads to much lower stock values.
So why does Greenspan seem unconcerned? Because he believes the bubble of excess technology will be absorbed in the first half of 2001 through reduced sales, cutbacks, and layoffs. Once we have completed the painful process of eating through the excess supply, business can stabilize and things will return to normal.
What does all this mean to the the average investor? For the first time in 10 years we have a market climate with GARP.
GARP- The Best Environment for the Long Term Investor
For the first time in 10 years the market is providing GARP opportunities- Growth At a Reasonable Price. Small cap stocks are holding their own in this blood bath environment. While analysts are struggling with sales and earnings projections for the large cap names, many small stocks have finally stabilized and seem to be establishing low volume bottoms.
The OTC Journal has focused its energy on three micocap stocks this year, and all three are outperforming the market. We added a fourth last week, but it is a little early to gauge performance. Here is a comparison based on Friday's closing prices:
Envoy Communications (NASDAQ: ECGI): Down 20% from January 2nd while NASDAQ is down 25%. Last quarter sales were up 71% and earnings were up 114%. The company is on track to achieve nearly $100 million in sales this year, and currently trades with a market cap of $45 million (less than 50% of sales), which is ridiculous. This is a prime example of GARP at its best.
MedGrup (OTC BB: CODX): Up 87% from January 2nd while the NASDAQ is down 25%. Sales and earnings nearly doubled from 1999 to 2000. The company should double again this year to annual sales of about $8 million. The company currently has a $14.6 million market cap. Again: GARP at its best.
Energy Power Systems (OTC BB: EYPSF): Down 7.2% since introduced on February 10th. NASDAQ is down 30% since that day. Likely to hit $25 to $30 million in sales this year. Expanding through core business, acquisitions, and power plant development projects in India. $14 million market cap (50% of sales). GARP at its best.
XML Global Technologies (NASDAQ: XMLG): Just added last week, is still trading at our profiled price. The market is allowing you the opportunity to invest in revolutionary, leading technology in XML at a mere $25 million market cap. This is a GARP stock.
Where's the Market Headed?
We don't know. Probably lower in the near term. The good technicians we know believe there will be a double bottom established at 1500. However, most investors don't seem to care anymore, and debate surrounds not how low we will go, but when we will turn back up.
While there is currently little indication economic conditions will drive stocks back up, there is enormous pent up demand buy side demand from the astronomically huge short interest. Investors who are long can hold forever. Short positions must be eventually be covered. Short sellers believe they are as bomb proof as the longs believed they were at NASDAQ 5000.
Nearly one year after Alan Greenspan accused the market of having "Irrational Exuberance" he turned out to be right. We believe we are in a climate of Irrational Pessimism. It will be a learning experience to see where we end up in one year.
Next Week: News is likely from some of our favorites.
=======================================================
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OT: here is a "great" board on iHUB if you want connection to a various assortment of "rearch" links ~~~~ WOW mind-boggling !!EZ
http://www.investorshub.com/beta/board.asp?board_id=474
OT: just a reminder....if you're looking for some excellent links and/or tools for research, this board on iHUB has it all.
Also, it is a GREAT place to just ask general ????, if you have any. Enjoy !! EZ
http://www.investorshub.com/beta/board.asp?board_id=329
More rhetoric on WTO & spy plane collision:
Saturday April 7 8:11 AM ET
Analysts: WTO Could Be Hostage to China Plane Row
By Bill Savadove
BEIJING (Reuters) - When a U.S. warplane on a NATO mission bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade two years ago, one of the casualties was talks on China's entry into the World Trade Organization.
Negotiations were frozen for several months.
In the aftermath of this week's U.S. spy plane incident, Beijing-based American businessmen are waiting anxiously to see if history repeats itself.
A U.S. surveillance plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan island on Sunday after colliding with a Chinese fighter jet. China is holding the 24 crew and has so far ignored Washington's demands they and the plane be handed over.
WTO talks are already mired in a dispute between China and the United States over agricultural subsidies. Some analysts believe China may welcome an excuse to slow the negotiations even further.
That would be bad news for U.S. insurers and other businesses hoping for an eventual bonanza after China's WTO entry.
``It of course could rock the boat,'' said a Western diplomat involved in the WTO talks. ``These sort of political issues coming out of the clear sky, how do you treat them?''
``Two years ago in 1999, it poisoned the atmosphere of the multilateral,'' he said, referring to the Belgrade bombing when China was furious at all NATO members.
China has always mixed trade and politics, and U.S. businessmen are usually the first to feel China-U.S. tension.
After the Belgrade bombing, a number of high-profile American companies were targeted by angry mobs, including Kentucky Fried Chicken and McDonald's restaurants.
``Anytime there is political tension it's going to impact potentially on us, the business community,'' said Howard Margules, China president for U.S. insurer Lincoln National.
``My feeling is that Chinese officials haven't cranked up the propaganda machine like they did with the bombing of the embassy. Therefore, at this point it's still resolvable.''
Business And Politics
The United States was China's second biggest trading partner last year with almost $75 billion worth of bilateral trade.
China often considers political ties when awarding deals or contracts. Beijing has doled out licenses to foreign insurers as political spoils to their home countries.
``We try not to get dragged into the political squabble as much as we can,'' Margules said. But in China, ``Insurance has always been very political,'' he said.
Some diplomats and analysts say China is deliberately dragging its feet on WTO to buy more time for domestic industry to prepare, making entry this year difficult. Political disagreement with the United States could give Beijing a convenient excuse to delay more, they say.
China and the United States are still trying to find a compromise for the level of subsidies China can provide its farmers to smooth the way for the next round of WTO talks.
Approval of permanent normal trade relations (PNTR) for China will face a tougher sell to the U.S. Congress this year as some members respond angrily to China detaining the plane's crew and refusing to hand over the aircraft immediately.
Congress approved PNTR last year, but it was contingent on China becoming a member of the WTO.
``There is already a suspicion about the Chinese and how much they are willing to enter the community of nations,'' said Senator Rick Santorum, a Pennsylvania Republican.
For those who read/follow George Gilder's Technology report...here is a "new" shareable 'The Friday Letter' put out by Gilder. Hope you enjoy the content...some great links also.
EZ ( I liked the Off the Boards piece as I'm high on GX )
from Gilder Publishing
THE FRIDAY LETTER
e-mailed weekly, for friends and subscribers
=================================================
/ http://www.gilder.com /
April 6, 2001
HEADLINES:
* The Week/George Gilder on Hot Air
* In the April Digital Power Report/Analog Power
* Peter Huber/"I'm Buying Tech Stocks"
* In The American Spectator/Techno-Horror
* Off the Boards/Jeff Stambovsky
* Readings
* Conference Calendar
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
For SUBSCRIBE and UNSUBSCRIBE information, please see the bottom of this
email
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
THE WEEK/Hot Air
The global warming debate reveals that plutomores—rich fools—have reached
high positions in the Administration of George W. Bush. Apparently fooled
by copious coverage of the Democratic "victory" in Florida, many
Republican grandees remain baffled by the presence of conservatives in
Washington. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill actually came to believe that
he was moving to the city to serve as a token Republican in the
administration of Al Gore. The Alcoa corpocrat devoted his first Cabinet
presentation to an earnest tract on global warming, urging his baffled
companions to save the planet from Republican religionists apparently
awaiting the second coming in rubber boots on Long Island beaches and golf
courses. He all but said the Earth Is In the Balance.
Washington is not alone. In a scientific establishment fifty percent
financed by government, scores of scientists have undergone the pressures
that befall any critic of the cult of human-caused global warming.
Fortunately, not all. My friend Arthur Robinson has been battling climate
doom sayers for a decade from his Oregon redoubt. Craig and Keith Idso's
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global
Change--www.co2science.org --picks up pieces the heat-addled press won't
touch, including a trenchant summation by Columbia's National Medal of
Science winning climatologist Wallace Broecker in the prestigious pages of
Science earlier this year. Entitled “Was the Medieval Warm Period
Global?,” Broecker's answer is a resounding “yes,” and builds the case for
a series of climatic warmings spaced at roughly 1500 year intervals.
Harvard astrophysicists Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon, citing evidence
from peat bogs in northeastern China, have extended the record of such
swings back a full six millennia. They report changes in the Sun's energy
output 70,000 times more significant than all human activity put together.
In the end, the global warming panic will take its place in the history
books next to other environmental chimeras, such as the threat of DDT (but
not of pandemic malaria), the peril of nuclear power (but not of coal
mining), the brain curdling effect of cell phones (but not of far more
potent sun rays), the menace of power lines (but not of poverty).
Politicized scientists with government grants and dubious computer models
persuaded the world’s politicians to make pompous fools of themselves in
Kyoto. Socialist politicians were happy to join a movement to impose
regulation over the world energy supply, and thus over the world economy.
The science is blowing up in their faces. But rather than admit error they
persist in fear-mongering. When this happened with DDT, hundreds of
millions of people died of malaria. They continue to die. How many people
would die as a result of an energy clamp on global capitalism?
George Gilder
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IN THE APRIL DIGITAL POWER REPORT/Analog Power
"Analog Power? In a digital power report? Hard-wired analog power-control
circuits are dumb. They aren’t programmable. Their primitive logic, such
as it is, is fuzzy. But they are also blindingly fast, compact, frugal—and
ubiquitous. Like the reptilian brain at the back of every mammal’s skull,
an analog metronome establishes the clock speed and supplies the first
layer of order deep within every array of digital MOSFETs, IGBTs, bipolar
transistors, and Pentiums."
April's Digital Power Report, by Peter Huber and Mark Mills, is online
now. DPR subscribers can log in at http://www.digitalpowerreport.com
(The April Gilder Technology Report will be posted Monday April 9th
mid-morning. GTR subscribers log in at http://www.gildertech.com.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PETER HUBER BONUS/"I'm Buying Tech Stocks"
In Forbes, April 16th, 2001:
"Most of the growth in digital markets has come in sudden, convulsive
spasms, with periods of relative calm in between. Each successive stage of
eye-popping growth requires years of incubation, during which hardware and
software accumulate and networks form. Then some critical mass is finally
reached, a chain reaction begins, and the product or service makes an
abrupt transition from techno-curiosity to mass-market necessity. Wall
Street overreacts to the quiet interludes just as much as it overreacts to
the crescendos. While the technologists calmly play their way through the
never-ending symphony, the momentum traders swing from euphoria to
despair, and then—count on it—back to euphoria once again."
Read the full story at
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/forbes/2001/0416/196.html (registration
required)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FROM THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR/Stop Everything… It's Techno-Horror
"They say he's here."
"Who's here?"
"Bill, stupid."
"Bill's not stupid!"
"Hey, there he is. Amazing."
"What do you mean? Where?"
"Over there. By the phones."
"Wow. They say he flew coach."
"Nah, he rode in on a donkey."
"But they say Reno and the feds will string him up. Klein
claims he's a monotheist."
"Monopolist, you idiot."
"Anyway, forget Reno and Gates, think Joy.
Joy is coded for bear."
From Silicon Valley via Aspen, Sun Microsystem's Bill Joy wants to call
the police. On science. On technology. On the industry that made him rich.
George Gilder and Richard Vigilante fire back at the Luddites improbable
new hero. Read the full story at http://www.gilder.com
The American Spectator is available by subscription at 50% off the cover
price—see below or http://www.spectator.org.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OFF THE BOARDS/Jeff Stambovsky
Q: What to own when the market turns around?
A: Fastest rebound? In January XLA, NOPT and TERN led the way. I'm not
sure that that's where you'll get the most bang for the buck this time.
But there are, broadly speaking, a number of thematic alternatives:
Theme 1: Debt Matters. If the capital markets re-open for business before
the waste material collides with the electromechanical cooling device,
then the leveraged IP carriers--which are increasingly being treated by
today's market as call options on whatever equity may remain--could snap
back strongly. Right now both the bond market and the stock market are in
no mood for making fine distinctions between failed CLECs and ISPs, and
aggressive next-generation IP carriers with leveraged balance sheets. Is
the market right? Or is this the kind of broad-brushing that creates
opportunities? As far as the market is concerned, Winstar is Covad is
Psinet is Metromedia Fiber is Level3 is Global Crossing.
The market will turn out to be completely right, of course, if the
economic downturn goes on for several more years; partially right if it
continues for several more months. But a world in which GX has lost its
equity value is a world in which all I want to own is a fallout shelter
and an AK-47.
That said, I would not play with the milk money in leveraged carriers,
particularly in spots where the bond market is sending strong contrary
signals. I'm hearing GX bonds in the high 80s, MFNX in low 70s, LVLT in
mid 60s, and TSIX in low 30s. I always like to point out that the bond
market is not always right about the prospects for a given issuer. What it
does tell you is the availability (and price) of public high yield
financing for any given company at any given time. I also like to remind
everyone that that there is a relationship between risk and return--the
higher the leverage, the higher the risk. One of our human failings seems
to be an inability to stay conscious of both "R"s at the same time. It was
a rare quality at NAZ 5000, and it's a rare quality today. Final thought:
never forget the big distinction between company risk and return, on the
one hand, and portfolio risk and return on the other.
Theme 2: Cash Counts. The young optics companies that were smart enough
(or lucky enough) to get a public grubstake before the window closed will
emerge from this unpleasantness stronger than the private companies who
never got in. Everyone's concerned about the disruption of the disrupters,
but the disrupters with cash will be sitting pretty when the buildout goes
back into high gear. My reasoning: A stock market that allows VC to exit
scores of fledgling components companies--either through acquisition or
IPO--is a stock market in which Avanex trades, well, a LOT better than
it's trading today. All those Telliums and Chorums--where are they going
with Avanex languishing at 3 times revenue? Nowhere. The public won't
touch 'em, and neither will Cisco.
Of course, if we've completed the build-out, they're all equally dead,
right? Not necessarily. There's a good case to be made that this kind of
market will hasten what my Gilder colleague Bret Swanson calls "the death
of incrementalism." With the kind of sweeping change we've witnessed over
the past year, what carrier or company isn't going to think seriously
about skipping a technological generation when they sit down to their next
IT budget? If it's September 2001, and we're once again birds and not
windshields, is Mr. Network CTO really going to upgrade the old stuff---or
replace it?
Theme 3: Global Crossing.
Theme 4: The Sweetest Spot. At some point, the market will again pay a
premium for blue-chip management, entrepreneurial aggressiveness, and
solid corporate DNA, especially in a company whose operations touch a
whole bunch of telecosmic sweet spots. To me, that's Broadcom.
Theme 5:Global Crossing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REALITY CHECK
From The New York Times: “In the past two weeks, all the market averages
have plunged to new lows, as Wall Street, beset by cruel economic news
from all sides, has time after time been unable to mount a sustained
rally. That is a discouraging omen, an indication that the bottom has not
been reached, many securities analysts say, and a sign that even the most
steel-willed optimists may be about to throw in the their towels. ‘The
market’s going to take the ultimate dive to culmination in the next few
weeks,’ said James L. Freeman, Director of Research at the First Boston
Corporation, echoing the comments of many other market strategists.
‘Batten down the hatches.’”
Publication date? August 15, 1982.
Thanks to eFinance Insider, the excellent new biweekly edited by
RagingBull founder Bill Martin. Free subscriptions at
http://www.efinanceinsider.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
READINGS
Simon Cao Muxes
http://lw.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&Subsection=Display&ARTIC....
Failure of VC Investments Could Spell Trouble For Start-Ups
http://www0.mercurycenter.com/business/top/069484.htm
Cisco: Victim of Past Success
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3V35AZ3LC&live=true&u....
Did AOL Shoot the Messenger?
http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1005-201-5464191-0.html?tag=tp_pr
Hopeful Times for US Media
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3QR84K2LC&live=true
Power for a Digital Society
http://www.epri.com/Journal.asp?issueid=245906#ARTICLE-245909-2
Wall Street Springs Eternal
http://www.redherring.com/index.asp?layout=story&channel=20000002&doc_id=410018641
Auditing Classes at M.I.T., on the Web and Free
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/04/technology/04MIT.html
(Registration required.)
FBI Struggles to Retain Cybercrime Experts
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0401/040501td.htm
Bill & Larry's Excellent Adventure
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010405/tc/stocks_wealth_dc_4.html
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--==-=-=-=
GET THE GILDER TECHNOLOGY REPORT
Monthly, from the heart of the Telecosm
http://www.gildertech.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET NEW ECONOMY WATCH
Reshaping the Competitive Landscape
http://www.neweconomywatch.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET THE DIGITAL POWER REPORT
Electrons matter
Download two free issues at http://www.digitalpowerreport.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET DYNAMIC SILICON
Linking the Microcosm and the Telecosm
http://www.dynamicsilicon.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR
Online special--50% off cover price!
http://www.gilder.com/AmSpecSub.asp
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GILDER CONFERENCE CALENDAR
April 10-12, Storewidth 2001, The Ritz-Carlton, Dana Point, CA. Bandwidth
is just the beginning. Register now at
http://www.gilder.com/Storewidth/Storewidth.htm
June 5-7, The Gilder Global Technology Forum, Grosvenor House, London UK.
Leading the next global technology revolution. Special offer for early
adopters at http://www.gilder.com/london/LondonEvent.htm
September 12-14, Telecosm V, Squaw Creek Resort, Lake Tahoe CA. The one
and only. Produced by Forbes Inc and Gilder Publishing. Details and
registration at http://www.forbes.com/conf/telecosm/agenda1.shtml
October 22-24, Powercosm 2001, Featuring Peter Huber and Mark Mills, The
Fairmont Hotel, San Francisco, CA
Digital Power in the Silicon Age. Register now at
http://www.gilder.com/powercosm_forms/Conference.asp
October 24-26, New Economy/2001, The Millennium Broadway, NYC. A front-row
seat on the transformation of corporate value. Produced by Forbes Inc and
Gilder Publishing. Details and registration at
http://www.forbes.com/conf/neweconomy/agenda1.shtml
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and friends of
Gilder Publishing. If there is someone you think would enjoy it, please
feel free to forward a copy.
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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Contributors to this week’s issue: Charlie Burger, George Gilder, Peter
Huber, Mary Catherine Martin, Spencer Reiss, Mark Shaffer, Jeff
Stambovsky, Bret Swanson
ADVERTISING INFORMATION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
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tel (860-434-0614)
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Copyright 2001 Gilder Publishing LLC
For those who read/follow George Gilder's Technology report...here is a "new" shareable 'The Friday Letter' put out by Gilder. Hope you enjoy the content...some great links also.
EZ ( I liked the Off the Boards piece as I'm high on GX )
from Gilder Publishing
THE FRIDAY LETTER
e-mailed weekly, for friends and subscribers
=================================================
/ http://www.gilder.com /
April 6, 2001
HEADLINES:
* The Week/George Gilder on Hot Air
* In the April Digital Power Report/Analog Power
* Peter Huber/"I'm Buying Tech Stocks"
* In The American Spectator/Techno-Horror
* Off the Boards/Jeff Stambovsky
* Readings
* Conference Calendar
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
For SUBSCRIBE and UNSUBSCRIBE information, please see the bottom of this
email
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
THE WEEK/Hot Air
The global warming debate reveals that plutomores—rich fools—have reached
high positions in the Administration of George W. Bush. Apparently fooled
by copious coverage of the Democratic "victory" in Florida, many
Republican grandees remain baffled by the presence of conservatives in
Washington. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill actually came to believe that
he was moving to the city to serve as a token Republican in the
administration of Al Gore. The Alcoa corpocrat devoted his first Cabinet
presentation to an earnest tract on global warming, urging his baffled
companions to save the planet from Republican religionists apparently
awaiting the second coming in rubber boots on Long Island beaches and golf
courses. He all but said the Earth Is In the Balance.
Washington is not alone. In a scientific establishment fifty percent
financed by government, scores of scientists have undergone the pressures
that befall any critic of the cult of human-caused global warming.
Fortunately, not all. My friend Arthur Robinson has been battling climate
doom sayers for a decade from his Oregon redoubt. Craig and Keith Idso's
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global
Change--www.co2science.org --picks up pieces the heat-addled press won't
touch, including a trenchant summation by Columbia's National Medal of
Science winning climatologist Wallace Broecker in the prestigious pages of
Science earlier this year. Entitled “Was the Medieval Warm Period
Global?,” Broecker's answer is a resounding “yes,” and builds the case for
a series of climatic warmings spaced at roughly 1500 year intervals.
Harvard astrophysicists Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon, citing evidence
from peat bogs in northeastern China, have extended the record of such
swings back a full six millennia. They report changes in the Sun's energy
output 70,000 times more significant than all human activity put together.
In the end, the global warming panic will take its place in the history
books next to other environmental chimeras, such as the threat of DDT (but
not of pandemic malaria), the peril of nuclear power (but not of coal
mining), the brain curdling effect of cell phones (but not of far more
potent sun rays), the menace of power lines (but not of poverty).
Politicized scientists with government grants and dubious computer models
persuaded the world’s politicians to make pompous fools of themselves in
Kyoto. Socialist politicians were happy to join a movement to impose
regulation over the world energy supply, and thus over the world economy.
The science is blowing up in their faces. But rather than admit error they
persist in fear-mongering. When this happened with DDT, hundreds of
millions of people died of malaria. They continue to die. How many people
would die as a result of an energy clamp on global capitalism?
George Gilder
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IN THE APRIL DIGITAL POWER REPORT/Analog Power
"Analog Power? In a digital power report? Hard-wired analog power-control
circuits are dumb. They aren’t programmable. Their primitive logic, such
as it is, is fuzzy. But they are also blindingly fast, compact, frugal—and
ubiquitous. Like the reptilian brain at the back of every mammal’s skull,
an analog metronome establishes the clock speed and supplies the first
layer of order deep within every array of digital MOSFETs, IGBTs, bipolar
transistors, and Pentiums."
April's Digital Power Report, by Peter Huber and Mark Mills, is online
now. DPR subscribers can log in at http://www.digitalpowerreport.com
(The April Gilder Technology Report will be posted Monday April 9th
mid-morning. GTR subscribers log in at http://www.gildertech.com.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PETER HUBER BONUS/"I'm Buying Tech Stocks"
In Forbes, April 16th, 2001:
"Most of the growth in digital markets has come in sudden, convulsive
spasms, with periods of relative calm in between. Each successive stage of
eye-popping growth requires years of incubation, during which hardware and
software accumulate and networks form. Then some critical mass is finally
reached, a chain reaction begins, and the product or service makes an
abrupt transition from techno-curiosity to mass-market necessity. Wall
Street overreacts to the quiet interludes just as much as it overreacts to
the crescendos. While the technologists calmly play their way through the
never-ending symphony, the momentum traders swing from euphoria to
despair, and then—count on it—back to euphoria once again."
Read the full story at
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/forbes/2001/0416/196.html (registration
required)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FROM THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR/Stop Everything… It's Techno-Horror
"They say he's here."
"Who's here?"
"Bill, stupid."
"Bill's not stupid!"
"Hey, there he is. Amazing."
"What do you mean? Where?"
"Over there. By the phones."
"Wow. They say he flew coach."
"Nah, he rode in on a donkey."
"But they say Reno and the feds will string him up. Klein
claims he's a monotheist."
"Monopolist, you idiot."
"Anyway, forget Reno and Gates, think Joy.
Joy is coded for bear."
From Silicon Valley via Aspen, Sun Microsystem's Bill Joy wants to call
the police. On science. On technology. On the industry that made him rich.
George Gilder and Richard Vigilante fire back at the Luddites improbable
new hero. Read the full story at http://www.gilder.com
The American Spectator is available by subscription at 50% off the cover
price—see below or http://www.spectator.org.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OFF THE BOARDS/Jeff Stambovsky
Q: What to own when the market turns around?
A: Fastest rebound? In January XLA, NOPT and TERN led the way. I'm not
sure that that's where you'll get the most bang for the buck this time.
But there are, broadly speaking, a number of thematic alternatives:
Theme 1: Debt Matters. If the capital markets re-open for business before
the waste material collides with the electromechanical cooling device,
then the leveraged IP carriers--which are increasingly being treated by
today's market as call options on whatever equity may remain--could snap
back strongly. Right now both the bond market and the stock market are in
no mood for making fine distinctions between failed CLECs and ISPs, and
aggressive next-generation IP carriers with leveraged balance sheets. Is
the market right? Or is this the kind of broad-brushing that creates
opportunities? As far as the market is concerned, Winstar is Covad is
Psinet is Metromedia Fiber is Level3 is Global Crossing.
The market will turn out to be completely right, of course, if the
economic downturn goes on for several more years; partially right if it
continues for several more months. But a world in which GX has lost its
equity value is a world in which all I want to own is a fallout shelter
and an AK-47.
That said, I would not play with the milk money in leveraged carriers,
particularly in spots where the bond market is sending strong contrary
signals. I'm hearing GX bonds in the high 80s, MFNX in low 70s, LVLT in
mid 60s, and TSIX in low 30s. I always like to point out that the bond
market is not always right about the prospects for a given issuer. What it
does tell you is the availability (and price) of public high yield
financing for any given company at any given time. I also like to remind
everyone that that there is a relationship between risk and return--the
higher the leverage, the higher the risk. One of our human failings seems
to be an inability to stay conscious of both "R"s at the same time. It was
a rare quality at NAZ 5000, and it's a rare quality today. Final thought:
never forget the big distinction between company risk and return, on the
one hand, and portfolio risk and return on the other.
Theme 2: Cash Counts. The young optics companies that were smart enough
(or lucky enough) to get a public grubstake before the window closed will
emerge from this unpleasantness stronger than the private companies who
never got in. Everyone's concerned about the disruption of the disrupters,
but the disrupters with cash will be sitting pretty when the buildout goes
back into high gear. My reasoning: A stock market that allows VC to exit
scores of fledgling components companies--either through acquisition or
IPO--is a stock market in which Avanex trades, well, a LOT better than
it's trading today. All those Telliums and Chorums--where are they going
with Avanex languishing at 3 times revenue? Nowhere. The public won't
touch 'em, and neither will Cisco.
Of course, if we've completed the build-out, they're all equally dead,
right? Not necessarily. There's a good case to be made that this kind of
market will hasten what my Gilder colleague Bret Swanson calls "the death
of incrementalism." With the kind of sweeping change we've witnessed over
the past year, what carrier or company isn't going to think seriously
about skipping a technological generation when they sit down to their next
IT budget? If it's September 2001, and we're once again birds and not
windshields, is Mr. Network CTO really going to upgrade the old stuff---or
replace it?
Theme 3: Global Crossing.
Theme 4: The Sweetest Spot. At some point, the market will again pay a
premium for blue-chip management, entrepreneurial aggressiveness, and
solid corporate DNA, especially in a company whose operations touch a
whole bunch of telecosmic sweet spots. To me, that's Broadcom.
Theme 5:Global Crossing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REALITY CHECK
From The New York Times: “In the past two weeks, all the market averages
have plunged to new lows, as Wall Street, beset by cruel economic news
from all sides, has time after time been unable to mount a sustained
rally. That is a discouraging omen, an indication that the bottom has not
been reached, many securities analysts say, and a sign that even the most
steel-willed optimists may be about to throw in the their towels. ‘The
market’s going to take the ultimate dive to culmination in the next few
weeks,’ said James L. Freeman, Director of Research at the First Boston
Corporation, echoing the comments of many other market strategists.
‘Batten down the hatches.’”
Publication date? August 15, 1982.
Thanks to eFinance Insider, the excellent new biweekly edited by
RagingBull founder Bill Martin. Free subscriptions at
http://www.efinanceinsider.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
READINGS
Simon Cao Muxes
http://lw.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&Subsection=Display&ARTIC....
Failure of VC Investments Could Spell Trouble For Start-Ups
http://www0.mercurycenter.com/business/top/069484.htm
Cisco: Victim of Past Success
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3V35AZ3LC&live=true&u....
Did AOL Shoot the Messenger?
http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1005-201-5464191-0.html?tag=tp_pr
Hopeful Times for US Media
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3QR84K2LC&live=true
Power for a Digital Society
http://www.epri.com/Journal.asp?issueid=245906#ARTICLE-245909-2
Wall Street Springs Eternal
http://www.redherring.com/index.asp?layout=story&channel=20000002&doc_id=410018641
Auditing Classes at M.I.T., on the Web and Free
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/04/technology/04MIT.html
(Registration required.)
FBI Struggles to Retain Cybercrime Experts
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0401/040501td.htm
Bill & Larry's Excellent Adventure
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010405/tc/stocks_wealth_dc_4.html
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--==-=-=-=
GET THE GILDER TECHNOLOGY REPORT
Monthly, from the heart of the Telecosm
http://www.gildertech.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET NEW ECONOMY WATCH
Reshaping the Competitive Landscape
http://www.neweconomywatch.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET THE DIGITAL POWER REPORT
Electrons matter
Download two free issues at http://www.digitalpowerreport.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET DYNAMIC SILICON
Linking the Microcosm and the Telecosm
http://www.dynamicsilicon.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR
Online special--50% off cover price!
http://www.gilder.com/AmSpecSub.asp
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GILDER CONFERENCE CALENDAR
April 10-12, Storewidth 2001, The Ritz-Carlton, Dana Point, CA. Bandwidth
is just the beginning. Register now at
http://www.gilder.com/Storewidth/Storewidth.htm
June 5-7, The Gilder Global Technology Forum, Grosvenor House, London UK.
Leading the next global technology revolution. Special offer for early
adopters at http://www.gilder.com/london/LondonEvent.htm
September 12-14, Telecosm V, Squaw Creek Resort, Lake Tahoe CA. The one
and only. Produced by Forbes Inc and Gilder Publishing. Details and
registration at http://www.forbes.com/conf/telecosm/agenda1.shtml
October 22-24, Powercosm 2001, Featuring Peter Huber and Mark Mills, The
Fairmont Hotel, San Francisco, CA
Digital Power in the Silicon Age. Register now at
http://www.gilder.com/powercosm_forms/Conference.asp
October 24-26, New Economy/2001, The Millennium Broadway, NYC. A front-row
seat on the transformation of corporate value. Produced by Forbes Inc and
Gilder Publishing. Details and registration at
http://www.forbes.com/conf/neweconomy/agenda1.shtml
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and friends of
Gilder Publishing. If there is someone you think would enjoy it, please
feel free to forward a copy.
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
John Hammill (jhammill@gildertech.com)
Jorin Hawley (jhawley@gildertech.com)
E-Mail Wizard Dave Dortman
Contributors to this week’s issue: Charlie Burger, George Gilder, Peter
Huber, Mary Catherine Martin, Spencer Reiss, Mark Shaffer, Jeff
Stambovsky, Bret Swanson
ADVERTISING INFORMATION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For information about advertising in The Friday Letter, contact:
Brian Cole, VP Business Development(bcole@gildertech.com,
tel (860-434-0614)
FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Send letters to the editor to Fridayletter@gildertech.com
For technical problems, please e-mail Fridayhelp@gildertech.com
You can also contact us via:
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(888)484-2727; outside the U.S.(413)274-3000
(413)274-3030 (fax)
Copyright 2001 Gilder Publishing LLC
the GAME is FAR from OVER !!!!! EZ :)
http://www.redherring.com/index.asp?layout=story&channel=20000002&doc_id=410018641
afceast - I wish I had concrete answers to your questions. Actually, I think there are several posters who would like to provide a "definitive" answer. I share your concern & yet remain optimistic (in a horrid market environment) that HRCT, Yuanta, SA, etc. are 'making the right moves' under current conditions. I think we've GOT to give credit/patience to the underwriter (Yuanta) for telling us WHEN the timing for SA/ipo MIGHT be a bit more conducive to successful launch. THAT's what they do ---- far from me to second guess them. I can only attest to what was shared at the Roadshow mtgs.---- SA now proposed to launch ipo in April. As to the other companies coming to market.....NO DOUBT anything can happen between now/then. But, we do know it is THE PLAN to monetize those subsids. I do believe that IF we can get SA ipo out/up and running it will be a HUGE catalyst to more positive investing climate for HRCT and JV's. HOWEVER.....the overall market conditions CAN still hamper or take us down. Fact is that OTC-bb are now the LAST to get investor's $$$$$ ...and...
the FIRST to go when they need liquidity ie. margin calls, tuition payment:) and/or tax payments. So, in summary ~~~~ very much a wait/see game we play. Let's hope....ultimately...out patience PAY$ off !! EZ
p.s. TFN probably has the UTMOST viable perspective on these boards regarding HRCT ==== under promise / over deliver !!!!
This 'game' is FAR from over !!!
http://www.redherring.com/index.asp?layout=story&channel=20000002&doc_id=410018641
For those who read/follow George Gilder's Technology report...here is a "new" shareable 'The Friday Letter' put out by Gilder. Hope you enjoy the content...some great links also.
EZ ( I liked the Off the Boards piece as I'm high on GX )
from Gilder Publishing
THE FRIDAY LETTER
e-mailed weekly, for friends and subscribers
=================================================
/ http://www.gilder.com /
April 6, 2001
HEADLINES:
* The Week/George Gilder on Hot Air
* In the April Digital Power Report/Analog Power
* Peter Huber/"I'm Buying Tech Stocks"
* In The American Spectator/Techno-Horror
* Off the Boards/Jeff Stambovsky
* Readings
* Conference Calendar
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
For SUBSCRIBE and UNSUBSCRIBE information, please see the bottom of this
email
=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- =-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=
THE WEEK/Hot Air
The global warming debate reveals that plutomores—rich fools—have reached
high positions in the Administration of George W. Bush. Apparently fooled
by copious coverage of the Democratic "victory" in Florida, many
Republican grandees remain baffled by the presence of conservatives in
Washington. Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill actually came to believe that
he was moving to the city to serve as a token Republican in the
administration of Al Gore. The Alcoa corpocrat devoted his first Cabinet
presentation to an earnest tract on global warming, urging his baffled
companions to save the planet from Republican religionists apparently
awaiting the second coming in rubber boots on Long Island beaches and golf
courses. He all but said the Earth Is In the Balance.
Washington is not alone. In a scientific establishment fifty percent
financed by government, scores of scientists have undergone the pressures
that befall any critic of the cult of human-caused global warming.
Fortunately, not all. My friend Arthur Robinson has been battling climate
doom sayers for a decade from his Oregon redoubt. Craig and Keith Idso's
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global
Change--www.co2science.org --picks up pieces the heat-addled press won't
touch, including a trenchant summation by Columbia's National Medal of
Science winning climatologist Wallace Broecker in the prestigious pages of
Science earlier this year. Entitled “Was the Medieval Warm Period
Global?,” Broecker's answer is a resounding “yes,” and builds the case for
a series of climatic warmings spaced at roughly 1500 year intervals.
Harvard astrophysicists Sallie Baliunas and Willie Soon, citing evidence
from peat bogs in northeastern China, have extended the record of such
swings back a full six millennia. They report changes in the Sun's energy
output 70,000 times more significant than all human activity put together.
In the end, the global warming panic will take its place in the history
books next to other environmental chimeras, such as the threat of DDT (but
not of pandemic malaria), the peril of nuclear power (but not of coal
mining), the brain curdling effect of cell phones (but not of far more
potent sun rays), the menace of power lines (but not of poverty).
Politicized scientists with government grants and dubious computer models
persuaded the world’s politicians to make pompous fools of themselves in
Kyoto. Socialist politicians were happy to join a movement to impose
regulation over the world energy supply, and thus over the world economy.
The science is blowing up in their faces. But rather than admit error they
persist in fear-mongering. When this happened with DDT, hundreds of
millions of people died of malaria. They continue to die. How many people
would die as a result of an energy clamp on global capitalism?
George Gilder
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
IN THE APRIL DIGITAL POWER REPORT/Analog Power
"Analog Power? In a digital power report? Hard-wired analog power-control
circuits are dumb. They aren’t programmable. Their primitive logic, such
as it is, is fuzzy. But they are also blindingly fast, compact, frugal—and
ubiquitous. Like the reptilian brain at the back of every mammal’s skull,
an analog metronome establishes the clock speed and supplies the first
layer of order deep within every array of digital MOSFETs, IGBTs, bipolar
transistors, and Pentiums."
April's Digital Power Report, by Peter Huber and Mark Mills, is online
now. DPR subscribers can log in at http://www.digitalpowerreport.com
(The April Gilder Technology Report will be posted Monday April 9th
mid-morning. GTR subscribers log in at http://www.gildertech.com.)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PETER HUBER BONUS/"I'm Buying Tech Stocks"
In Forbes, April 16th, 2001:
"Most of the growth in digital markets has come in sudden, convulsive
spasms, with periods of relative calm in between. Each successive stage of
eye-popping growth requires years of incubation, during which hardware and
software accumulate and networks form. Then some critical mass is finally
reached, a chain reaction begins, and the product or service makes an
abrupt transition from techno-curiosity to mass-market necessity. Wall
Street overreacts to the quiet interludes just as much as it overreacts to
the crescendos. While the technologists calmly play their way through the
never-ending symphony, the momentum traders swing from euphoria to
despair, and then—count on it—back to euphoria once again."
Read the full story at
http://www.forbes.com/columnists/forbes/2001/0416/196.html (registration
required)
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
FROM THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR/Stop Everything… It's Techno-Horror
"They say he's here."
"Who's here?"
"Bill, stupid."
"Bill's not stupid!"
"Hey, there he is. Amazing."
"What do you mean? Where?"
"Over there. By the phones."
"Wow. They say he flew coach."
"Nah, he rode in on a donkey."
"But they say Reno and the feds will string him up. Klein
claims he's a monotheist."
"Monopolist, you idiot."
"Anyway, forget Reno and Gates, think Joy.
Joy is coded for bear."
From Silicon Valley via Aspen, Sun Microsystem's Bill Joy wants to call
the police. On science. On technology. On the industry that made him rich.
George Gilder and Richard Vigilante fire back at the Luddites improbable
new hero. Read the full story at http://www.gilder.com
The American Spectator is available by subscription at 50% off the cover
price—see below or http://www.spectator.org.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
OFF THE BOARDS/Jeff Stambovsky
Q: What to own when the market turns around?
A: Fastest rebound? In January XLA, NOPT and TERN led the way. I'm not
sure that that's where you'll get the most bang for the buck this time.
But there are, broadly speaking, a number of thematic alternatives:
Theme 1: Debt Matters. If the capital markets re-open for business before
the waste material collides with the electromechanical cooling device,
then the leveraged IP carriers--which are increasingly being treated by
today's market as call options on whatever equity may remain--could snap
back strongly. Right now both the bond market and the stock market are in
no mood for making fine distinctions between failed CLECs and ISPs, and
aggressive next-generation IP carriers with leveraged balance sheets. Is
the market right? Or is this the kind of broad-brushing that creates
opportunities? As far as the market is concerned, Winstar is Covad is
Psinet is Metromedia Fiber is Level3 is Global Crossing.
The market will turn out to be completely right, of course, if the
economic downturn goes on for several more years; partially right if it
continues for several more months. But a world in which GX has lost its
equity value is a world in which all I want to own is a fallout shelter
and an AK-47.
That said, I would not play with the milk money in leveraged carriers,
particularly in spots where the bond market is sending strong contrary
signals. I'm hearing GX bonds in the high 80s, MFNX in low 70s, LVLT in
mid 60s, and TSIX in low 30s. I always like to point out that the bond
market is not always right about the prospects for a given issuer. What it
does tell you is the availability (and price) of public high yield
financing for any given company at any given time. I also like to remind
everyone that that there is a relationship between risk and return--the
higher the leverage, the higher the risk. One of our human failings seems
to be an inability to stay conscious of both "R"s at the same time. It was
a rare quality at NAZ 5000, and it's a rare quality today. Final thought:
never forget the big distinction between company risk and return, on the
one hand, and portfolio risk and return on the other.
Theme 2: Cash Counts. The young optics companies that were smart enough
(or lucky enough) to get a public grubstake before the window closed will
emerge from this unpleasantness stronger than the private companies who
never got in. Everyone's concerned about the disruption of the disrupters,
but the disrupters with cash will be sitting pretty when the buildout goes
back into high gear. My reasoning: A stock market that allows VC to exit
scores of fledgling components companies--either through acquisition or
IPO--is a stock market in which Avanex trades, well, a LOT better than
it's trading today. All those Telliums and Chorums--where are they going
with Avanex languishing at 3 times revenue? Nowhere. The public won't
touch 'em, and neither will Cisco.
Of course, if we've completed the build-out, they're all equally dead,
right? Not necessarily. There's a good case to be made that this kind of
market will hasten what my Gilder colleague Bret Swanson calls "the death
of incrementalism." With the kind of sweeping change we've witnessed over
the past year, what carrier or company isn't going to think seriously
about skipping a technological generation when they sit down to their next
IT budget? If it's September 2001, and we're once again birds and not
windshields, is Mr. Network CTO really going to upgrade the old stuff---or
replace it?
Theme 3: Global Crossing.
Theme 4: The Sweetest Spot. At some point, the market will again pay a
premium for blue-chip management, entrepreneurial aggressiveness, and
solid corporate DNA, especially in a company whose operations touch a
whole bunch of telecosmic sweet spots. To me, that's Broadcom.
Theme 5:Global Crossing.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
REALITY CHECK
From The New York Times: “In the past two weeks, all the market averages
have plunged to new lows, as Wall Street, beset by cruel economic news
from all sides, has time after time been unable to mount a sustained
rally. That is a discouraging omen, an indication that the bottom has not
been reached, many securities analysts say, and a sign that even the most
steel-willed optimists may be about to throw in the their towels. ‘The
market’s going to take the ultimate dive to culmination in the next few
weeks,’ said James L. Freeman, Director of Research at the First Boston
Corporation, echoing the comments of many other market strategists.
‘Batten down the hatches.’”
Publication date? August 15, 1982.
Thanks to eFinance Insider, the excellent new biweekly edited by
RagingBull founder Bill Martin. Free subscriptions at
http://www.efinanceinsider.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
READINGS
Simon Cao Muxes
http://lw.pennnet.com/Articles/Article_Display.cfm?Section=Articles&Subsection=Display&ARTIC...
Failure of VC Investments Could Spell Trouble For Start-Ups
http://www0.mercurycenter.com/business/top/069484.htm
Cisco: Victim of Past Success
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3V35AZ3LC&live=true&u...
Did AOL Shoot the Messenger?
http://news.cnet.com/news/0-1005-201-5464191-0.html?tag=tp_pr
Hopeful Times for US Media
http://news.ft.com/ft/gx.cgi/ftc?pagename=View&c=Article&cid=FT3QR84K2LC&live=true
Power for a Digital Society
http://www.epri.com/Journal.asp?issueid=245906#ARTICLE-245909-2
Wall Street Springs Eternal
http://www.redherring.com/index.asp?layout=story&channel=20000002&doc_id=410018641
Auditing Classes at M.I.T., on the Web and Free
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/04/04/technology/04MIT.html
(Registration required.)
FBI Struggles to Retain Cybercrime Experts
http://www.govexec.com/dailyfed/0401/040501td.htm
Bill & Larry's Excellent Adventure
http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010405/tc/stocks_wealth_dc_4.html
-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=--==-=-=-=
GET THE GILDER TECHNOLOGY REPORT
Monthly, from the heart of the Telecosm
http://www.gildertech.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET NEW ECONOMY WATCH
Reshaping the Competitive Landscape
http://www.neweconomywatch.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET THE DIGITAL POWER REPORT
Electrons matter
Download two free issues at http://www.digitalpowerreport.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET DYNAMIC SILICON
Linking the Microcosm and the Telecosm
http://www.dynamicsilicon.com
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GET THE AMERICAN SPECTATOR
Online special--50% off cover price!
http://www.gilder.com/AmSpecSub.asp
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GILDER CONFERENCE CALENDAR
April 10-12, Storewidth 2001, The Ritz-Carlton, Dana Point, CA. Bandwidth
is just the beginning. Register now at
http://www.gilder.com/Storewidth/Storewidth.htm
June 5-7, The Gilder Global Technology Forum, Grosvenor House, London UK.
Leading the next global technology revolution. Special offer for early
adopters at http://www.gilder.com/london/LondonEvent.htm
September 12-14, Telecosm V, Squaw Creek Resort, Lake Tahoe CA. The one
and only. Produced by Forbes Inc and Gilder Publishing. Details and
registration at http://www.forbes.com/conf/telecosm/agenda1.shtml
October 22-24, Powercosm 2001, Featuring Peter Huber and Mark Mills, The
Fairmont Hotel, San Francisco, CA
Digital Power in the Silicon Age. Register now at
http://www.gilder.com/powercosm_forms/Conference.asp
October 24-26, New Economy/2001, The Millennium Broadway, NYC. A front-row
seat on the transformation of corporate value. Produced by Forbes Inc and
Gilder Publishing. Details and registration at
http://www.forbes.com/conf/neweconomy/agenda1.shtml
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
The Friday Letter is published weekly for subscribers and friends of
Gilder Publishing. If there is someone you think would enjoy it, please
feel free to forward a copy.
FRIDAY LETTER STAFF
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
John Hammill (jhammill@gildertech.com)
Jorin Hawley (jhawley@gildertech.com)
E-Mail Wizard Dave Dortman
Contributors to this week’s issue: Charlie Burger, George Gilder, Peter
Huber, Mary Catherine Martin, Spencer Reiss, Mark Shaffer, Jeff
Stambovsky, Bret Swanson
ADVERTISING INFORMATION
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
For information about advertising in The Friday Letter, contact:
Brian Cole, VP Business Development(bcole@gildertech.com,
tel (860-434-0614)
FEEDBACK AND PROBLEMS
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Send letters to the editor to Fridayletter@gildertech.com
For technical problems, please e-mail Fridayhelp@gildertech.com
You can also contact us via:
Gilder Publishing, Customer Service
(888)484-2727; outside the U.S.(413)274-3000
(413)274-3030 (fax)
Copyright 2001 Gilder Publishing LLC
pretty good read on broad array of equities/perspective.
http://www.custerconsulting.com/Pages/publications/cmag0401.htm
jmap ~ I have thought about that...and...hope YOU are very correct, in hindsight...on that one. I have sent a couple of questions to HRCT inquiring about "full disclosure" and HOW (and IF) it has the same definition for SA/ipo on GEM. I would like to know what the parameters will be for open communication similiar to domestic holdings. Let's hope our foreign plays......ARE ALL....(ultimate) winners through this domestic turmoil. EZ:)
I actually believe this is a fairly BIG part of price pressure on HRCT (and other otc-bb stocks) EZ
As Cash Disappears, Small Software Cos. Are Prey
This situation is far from unique to software. This is one reason down markets favor big companies with solid financial footing.
By Lisa Baertlein
PALO ALTO, Calif. (Reuters) - After defying the laws of business, gravity and nature during the technology market's go-go days, analysts say that small, unprofitable software companies are becoming prey to larger players as those laws again take hold.
``It's all one big Darwinian soup. Things form, operate, disintegrate, re-form,'' said Denis Pombriant, research director at the Aberdeen Group.
Among the companies already feeding from the trough are British accounting software maker Sage Group Plc (SGE.L), British electronic-business software vendor Merant Plc (MRN.L) and Minneapolis, Minn.-based e-commerce software provider Digital River Inc. (NasdaqNM:DRIV - news)
Activity is expected to become frenzied as little vendors, which once wielded market valuations rivaling those of well- established companies, fall victim to pessimistic investors and corporate America's diminished appetite for technology.
They are stuck in a vicious cycle. The flagging economy has stunted sales, which has contributed to plummeting stock prices. When shares are depressed, it is hard for unprofitable companies to go back to the market for money to fund operations as falling revenues fuel the burn of cash reserves.
``There were some companies that came out on the scene a year ago that you could tell were going to be R&D (research and development) acquisitions, they didn't have critical mass of their own to do battle in the world,'' Pombriant said.
Big Fish Eat Little Fish
``We have a lot of activity and a lot of deals in the process of being announced on the software side,'' said Robert Thornton, Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown's head of West Coast technology mergers and acquisitions.
``We have a different world. It doesn't really matter where the company got funded by the VCs, or what the last round of financing was. What matters is, 'Where do we go from here?''' Thornton said.
Industry giants like business-to-business (B2B) software maker i2 Technologies Inc. (NasdaqNM:ITWO - news) and SAP AG (SAPG.DE), Europe's biggest software maker, are already gobbling up private players such as RightWorks Corp. and TopTier Software Inc.
Analysts say cash-rich companies like No. 2 software maker Oracle Corp. (NasdaqNM:ORCL - news), e-business vendor PeopleSoft Inc. (NasdaqNM:PSFT - news) and others will soon be queuing up.
Timing Is Key
At the close last year, time and money appeared to be running short for Interact Commerce Corp. (NasdaqNM:IACT - news)
The Scottsdale, Ariz.-based company, which makes popular SalesLogix and ACT! selling software, started 2001 with net debt of $19 million.
In March, Sage Group Plc struck a deal to buy Interact in a cash transaction valued at $263 million.
E-business software vendor NetObjects Inc. (NasdaqNM:NETO - news) in February sold its enterprise division to Merant Plc for $18 million in cash. At the end of 2000, the company had $2.8 million in cash left, according to company filings with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (news - web sites) (SEC).
While the cash-burn scenario that laid waste to the dot-com sector applies to struggling software makers, analysts say they will not be decimated the way the dot-coms were.
``Software companies, for the most part, have some kind of outright technology that will be valuable to someone -- as long as the price is right,'' said Mark Verbeck, senior analyst at Epoch Partners in San Francisco.
Cash Poor
If you can count the number of months a company can run on its remaining cash on the fingers of your two hands, it needs to be looking for survival alternatives, analysts said.
Kana Communications Inc. (NasdaqNM:KANA - news) is among the companies seeing its cash reserves dwindle.
The e-business software maker said Tuesday it has $20 million in cash remaining. It has cut staff to 870 from 1,200 and plans to outsource the hosting of its e-mail service in an effort to trim operational cash-burn, which was $30 million in the recent first quarter.
Calico Commerce Inc. (NasdaqNM:CLIC - news) -- which said in March it was selling its B2B exchange software division to Digital River in a stock deal valued at $7.8 million -- had $5.2 million in cash and $37.1 million in short-term investments on Dec. 31, according to SEC filings.
While selling all or part of a company can be a godsend, there are risks.
When acquiring companies make stock purchases, their targets can be taken on a bumpy ride that may leave them more battered than before the deal was struck.
That became clear earlier this week when former B2B darling Ariba Inc. (NasdaqNM:ARBA - news) walked away from its much-hyped merger deal with Agile Software Inc. (NasdaqNM:AGIL - news) after the Mountain View, Calif.-based software maker said the economic downturn would cause it to post a surprise loss and necessitate the elimination of one-third of its work force.
The value of the stock deal fell to about $400 million from $2.55 billion as Ariba's stock price dropped amid a multi-month rout of technology stocks.
Agile, which makes software that lets businesses share product designs and plans with their suppliers over the Web, said it would take a $5 million charge related to the unconsummated deal and the expense would cause it to post a fiscal fourth-quarter loss instead of the small profit the Street expected.
Andy - absolutely excellent factual "post" ~~~ THANKS for
sharing it. EZ
Also, pls. check your iHUB MailBox for a note from me !!
OT: pretty good stuff on broad array of subjects
http://www.custerconsulting.com/Pages/publications/cmag0401.htm
OT: TickerNova ~~ funny & so true also !! Hey pls.
check your iHUB MailBox ~~~ EZ
OT: This is a MUST READ for everyone !!!
PANIC AT THE DTC--A MUST READ FOR DNAP LONGS
medina minerals inc(mdmn)shareholders committee—posted by elrac—3april 01
As you probably have heard by now, the Transfer Agent of Medinah filed an “Adverse Claim” lawsuit against the DTC(depository trust corporation)
http://www.dtcc.com/ last week.
He had to do this because he was caught in a pickle between a company insisting on the names and shareholdings of all individual beneficial owners, and the DTC that didn’t want the world to know the shareholdings of the 6,000 shareholders that they were acting as custodian for.
Our contact at the DTC confirmed that on Monday 4/2/01, the DTC threw in the towel, and ordered the 124 brokerage firms that own Medina to contact the company headquarters and provide them with the name, address, and accurate shareholdings of each and every one of their shareholders that they hold shares for.
The ball is now in the court of the 124 brokerage firms.
The much sought after exchange of an omnibus certificate of 60 million shares of Medina Mining, for an omnibus certificate of 59 million shares of Medina Minerals, which would basically allow this house of cards the illegal short sellers have built to dodge another bullet, will not occur.
This committee has waited 4 long years for this to happen.
We can now communicate with all of the 7,100 shareholders of Medinah for the very first time, if the brokerage firms comply. We will have 100% visibility of the phantom shares, and the sellers thereof will be forced into the open market to buy these shares back on behalf of their rightful owners, who have been diligently seeking their delivery for months and months, but to no avail.
Our committee’s legal consultants inform us that this is an absolute first in the history of the DTC.
Wow! After 4 long years of death threats, market manipulation, being stalled and lied to by brokerage firms, being dragged through the mud by Internet bashers, being accused of lying, distorting the truth, etc. It’s really over.
Well how about that! The hundreds of examples of anecdotal as well as empirical evidence of the existence of a massive short position really weren’t fabricated after all.
Les really didn’t have anything to do with the death of Mother Teresa, and Greg didn’t cause the Holocaust. All of those censuses that dozens of people collectively put hundreds of hours into really did tell the truth.
So just how big is this legal victory, and what are its immediate consequences?
The best way to address this is to put your feet into the shoes of a market maker that has just shorted 50 million shares of Medinah over the last 4 years. Being a “bona fide” market maker he has been allowed to sell as many “phantom”(naked) shares of Medinah as he could get away with, and believe us when we tell you that there aren’t any cops on the beat.
All of those buy orders over the years that he sold phantom shares into now have to be placed under a microscope and accounted for, due to the recent litigation victory.
The 124 different brokerage firms that currently own Medinah have been ordered to go through their records and review how many of those purchases actually were followed up with good delivery.
Brokerage firms don’t worry at all about good delivery until situations like this arise. Things are so chaotic on Wall Street and the commissions are currently so cheap that it is cost prohibitive to follow up each of the billions of trades done by various firms to determine if good delivery has been made.
There are literally billions of IOU’s floating around in cyberspace that are rarely audited.
If some market maker failed good delivery, then there is plenty of time later to see which one did it, and how many shares he failed to deliver. The all-telling paper trail is always there.
Based on the presumption that half of our brokerage firms are “dirty” in regards to this illegal short selling campaign, and that half are “clean”, what we foresee happening in the next couple of days is that the 62 different “clean” houses will go through their trading records and determine how many shares they should have in their account at the DTC, based on 100% good delivery by the respective market makers, and compare this number to how many shares they in fact have in their account there.
The difference between these two numbers will then represent how many shares were not properly delivered by the market maker after their purchase.
The brokerage firm will then go into the open market, and buy that amount of shares under a guaranteed delivery notation, and promptly hand the bill to the various market makers guilty of not making good delivery.
The fun part is that the trading desk at the brokerage firm doesn’t particularly care how much he has to pay for the shares because he’s not going to pay the bill, besides it will be nice to get these pesky Medinah shareholders off of our backs bugging us for delivery of certificates. He does, however, have to buy real shares out of the back pocket of one of us with a registered cert there, which is a lot more expensive than just buying in the open market, and getting shares shorted to you. The broker then hands the recently purchased share cert to the shareholder who was demanding delivery of his cert. Brokers can no longer use the excuse of a “chill” or “freeze” at the DTC.
Thus the immediate effect at a “clean” brokerage firm pertains to dirty market makers that didn’t make good delivery being bought in via the open market. One has to remember that the only people that have a cert in their hands right now are the 70 or 80 million that have had their registered Medinah Mining certs processed by the Transfer Agent. How many of these want to get rid of these certs a couple of days before a big fat dividend is earned is the other side of the equation that must be evaluated. All 60 million shares available at the DTC will come from these “clean” brokerage firms.
Now what will happen to the “dirty” brokerage firms that knowingly filled all of those purchase orders over the last 4 years with phantom shares? They will have to approach the 1,500 or so of us that hold the “real” registered certs. Let’s say that the date by now is April 20 or so. The problem again arises as to who among them wants to sell their shares right before the big dividend day.
But to complicate matters, the State District Attorney’s office is now in high gear with a gun at the head of the “dirty” brokerage firms insisting that they hand a registered cert to the shareholder that filed charges within the next 72 hours.
To further complicate matters, the “dirty” brokerage firm doesn’t want to cross that May 1 dividend record date for that would increase his short position by another 20%. So basically, you have a situation from April 20-30, wherein a zillion shares are trying to be bought because of dividends, deadlines, pressure from District Attorneys, and the risk disappearing because of the recent litigation victory, at the same time that nobody wants to sell any shares.
What would really be scary to ponder is what would happen if the good guys put together a 50-100 million share buying campaign driven by all of these favorable overlapping circumstances. Just think of 50-100 million shares of buying all going after those dividends which would have to be covered by the short sellers, and paid to all buy orders that settled by and started the registration process by April the 30th.
What other sequel can we anticipate? Any shares loaned out by the DTC or the lending department of a brokerage firm, will of course, have to be surrendered, exposing some investors especially from offshore. All of those “desked” buy orders over the years that never did show up as trading volume on any given day, will of course be exposed. Any shares hypothecated against loans or towards net capital reserves of a broker/dealer will of course be pulled also. All of those bogus electronic transfers that were done will have to be negated, since all shares are being delivered to the home of the registered shareholder. Please remember also, DO NOT return your registered certs back to a broker until the day you want to sell some shares. Our second bogus cert showed up last Thursday. It was for 500,000 shares.
Our first one was for 870,000 shares. Our third one came in the form of a bogus convertible preferred share for a very, very, very large amount of shares. Be on the look out for dozens of other ones. Any share not mailed out from the Transfer Agent in Salt Lake City should be carefully scrutinized. Our auditing firm has informed management that they are filing litigation against those forces that spent two years doing everything in their power to thwart the successful completion of our financials. They are doing this independent of Medinah.
The 20% dividend process might bear further scrutiny. The beauty here is really threefold:1)The company itself doesn’t have to pay the dividend for a year, yet the shorters short the dividend have to pay it immediately upon demand. There aren’t many ways to cover Rule 144 shares if the company is not willing to help them. 2)Most commonly, the perpetrators of the “bear raid” are forced to cover the dividend immediately with free trading shares, thereby adding a little bonus to the shareholder. 3)The 20% dividend on the record date of May 1 also sets up a time barrier that the shorts don’t want to breach, for any short position not covered by May the 1st becomes 20% larger, because shorts are liable to cover any dividends awarded to a shareholder during the time he is short.4)This then puts the short sellers into the unenviable position of having to cover his short position in the April 20-30 time frame, when a ton of opportunists are also buying for the free dividend, which also just so happens to overlap with the timeframe when all of the shares are in a registered format, and in the back pocket of loyal shareholders who have no intention of selling and losing their free 20% dividend.
Thus we can dictate when the “bad guys” have to cover. Then if you accidentally throw in some pressure from the regulatory officials, the civil litigation, and the State District Attorneys, you come up with a severe supply and demand imbalance.
There is still the possibility that some brokerage firms will fall asleep at the wheel, and sleep right through the May 1 deadline. We must pre-suppose that all of the firms will do this and we must have the State District Attorneys ready to strike right around April the 10th. All of us with shares in the “pipeline” of registration must do this without exception. Also make sure your brokerage firm has undone all electronic transfers. Also don’t fall victim to a broker trying to convince you that you don’t need to take delivery of your registered cert.
This is the oldest trick in the book wherein a broker convinces you that all you need to do is to tell him when you want to sell, and he will credit your account with the proper amount of money in a mark to market fashion, based on where the market is trading on that day. What we want your broker to do, however, is to aggressively chase the market upwards while buying in your certs. Make him do this with the same fervor he showed while shorting you your shares in the first place.
The rock hounds on the committee seem to be awfully excited about the recent petrographic analyses. Apparently we are extremely close to the porphyry/pluton.
A hearty welcome to our fellow “shortees” over at PCBM.,
Best of luck on your project, we’ll be following your progress closely.
We’d like to thank all of the shareholders for their patience and persistence over the last four years, we firmly believe that your pain is now over. There is still a lot of work to do, however. Roll up your sleeves and sign up for one of the committee positions. If you bought shares from an offshore account, there is an extremely high likelihood that you will be presented with a counterfeit cert in the near term. Please call any irregularities to the attention of management. A hearty welcome also goes out to our newly discovered shareholders in Chile. Those of you that took part in the pooling of buy orders about 18 months ago, are probably aware by now that the order you folks put in for 10 million shares collectively was shorted to you in its entirety. We are currently working on your situation, and expect a very hasty remedy. So please hang in there for just a little while longer. One of our lawyers in Santiago will be meeting with you soon to explain this phenomenon of illegal shorting and why you have been unable to receive your certificates yet. Whatever you do, please, please, please don’t return your certificates back to the brokerage firm through which you placed the order. The attorney will explain why. Stay tuned…..
about medina minerals
http://quicken.excite.com/investments/news/story/bw/?story=/news/stories/bw/20010306/a2478.htm&s...
David - The beauty of iHUB....you can express your feelings/state your case/engage in viable dialogue WITHOUT getting hammered...into a one/one arguement...or...saturated w/ horrendous BASHER posts. I think there are many who share your thoughts right now on HRCT...you have made some very viable points....and, I know Dr. Phan is now "viewing" this board ~~~~ I'm also of strong conviction that there are MUCH brighter days ahead for HRCT (and companies)......just not sure it's going to be in*sync (great name for group) w/ my personal timelines. EZ
Mark - totally agree. Ray actually has me looking at some of those COAL stocks quite closely too. And, iBOX enhancements look GREAT !! EZ
jointhefun -- pls. check iHUB MailBox.
HOLYBULL - I am only responding to this to underline two important things for ALL to read. First, there is NO ONE on this board that is here to censor ANYTHING ! Second, there ARE people on this board who are here to uphold the intent of both the HRCT board (clearly stated in iBOX) and InvestorHub
defined site parameters. To underline that, your message will remain as posted....in hopes that everyone will read this response as well. Enjoy the HRCT board on iHUB :)
otc-bb pilot project update:
http://www.otcbb.com/news/2001/GeneralNews/lopdelay.stm
Question for the board - WHO is the resident board expert on China/Chinese Financial procedures/China Investment process and or some combination of above?? Guess I could throw Chinese Accounting Principles in as well. Do we have anyone here who fits the bill --- or --- close to it ?? I would like to pose some questions to that person(s). EZ
TFN - I wish I had something concrete to respond to you..but, I don't. However, there were a few posters earlier today...and...I think even late last night that offered up some "perspective". Some of it may be repetitive from RB though. I think TIN, MD7 and a couple others added some thoughts ---- but, I also think most everyone HAD SOME surprised looks after reading details --- I know I did.
~~ Please take time to read ~~ Purpose is only to inform :)
Here are the answers to the most frequently asked questions about iHub
What is the Chairman of the Board concept?
The Chairman of the Board concept (COB) is a very unique feature to iHub. We created this feature because of the wide-spread problem with spam, personal attacks, and bashing without reason or facts. As Chairman of a Board, you can delete messages, manage the opening information to the board, manage the e-mail list for that board or club, and add/delete Directors to help you watch over the board. The Chairman, if he loses interest in the stock, sells, or otherwise can pass on his powers to a new Chairman. (If a Chairman has become inactive and you can not get a hold of him, e-mail Support, and he can be replaced). The COB concept was designed to keep discussions focused, clean, and fresh -- not cluttered with useless links and bickering. This is a new concept, so make sure you read all FAQs and How To's associated with the various features! And use them wisely!
OT: I know a few of the HRCT shareholders are also CHAG shareholders. If interested, there is a CHAG board on iHUB also. There are also some pretty interesting other boards on iHUB also ~~~~ check out some of them from the 'home' link...especially some of the 'general topic' boards...some good investing discussions / market topic discussions, etc.
WELCOME !!!!!! Now, I gotta let boatRgirl know you're here:)
Deb - YOU got it !! And, better check the box again :)
I was going to mark this OT: but then I thought heck, everyone needs a bit of humor today ~~~~~ and, I think the last line has some "on topic" perspective for all of us EZ
We let out a Horselaugh over these tidbits of wit and wisdom and hope you
enjoy them also.
Good judgment comes from experience and a lot of that comes from bad judgment
Don't squat with your spurs on
Lettin' the cat of of the bag is a whole lot easier then puttin' it back
If you're riding ahead of the herd, look back now and then to make sure it's
still there
When you teach a a lesson in meanness to a critter or a person, don't be
surprised if they learn their lesson well
Never kick a cow chip on a hot day
If you find yourself in a hole , the first thing to do is stop digging
It doesn't take much of a genius to spot a goat in a flock of sheep
Always drink upstream from the herd
There are two theories to arguin' with a woman, neither one works
If you get to thinkin' you're a person of influence, try ordering sombody
else's dog around
When you're throwin' your weight around, be ready to have it thrown around by
sombody else
Never miss a good chance to shut up
The quickest way to double your money is to fold it over and put it back in
your pocket
hey Temp --- you found it !! Just left link on HRCT
board for you. (you can disregard it now :)
And.....agree with your post also !!!!!
tempontheroad - "eloquent post"...and here is the link:
http://www.investorshub.com/beta/board.asp?board_id=427
Matt/Premier - I agree w/ both sides FWIW !!
EZ :)
Deb - I remember TIN telling me something about 1 big after hours sell that did not show up in regular trading activity.
Seems that may have balanced out some of the late day activity.
But........"no guess here" as to what caused it?? OT: did you check you iHUB mailbox ????