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It won't be long until the world understands GM-CSF's importance to Covid. We might be frustrated that the stock price didn't immediately rise but it takes time for news to be disseminated. There still isn't one US publication that has covered yesterday's news. But it will come. And then the stock price will melt up.
BBC article about GM-CSF being the key to Covid.
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56352128
GM-CSF is the cause of Covid death according to today's Imperial College London trial results. This is mammoth for HGEN. Before today, our drug was working on a theory. Today's trial results confirm the theory. A ton of investment money is going to pour into HGEN This article summarizes the trial well:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9346955/Blood-test-spot-Covid-patients-high-risk-dying.html
Today scientists at the Imperial College London are releasing results from a trial the discovered that GM-CSF is the cytokine responsible for Severe Covid and death. HGEN's lenzilumab is a GM-CSF inhibitor.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9346955/Blood-test-spot-Covid-patients-high-risk-dying.html
The stock price drop after the M2M trial took a month to fully happen. The overall drop was from $6.75 on July 21st all the way down to $2.76 on August 18th. Go back and read the posts during that span. The usual suspects were saying the trial results were amazing the entire time the stock was plummeting. After a year of investing your blood, sweat, and tears into this company, it is a bitter pill to swallow accepting that leron is a failure in the Covid arena. But the results are in. It failed.
The good news: CYDY is only down 21 cents.
The bad news: a 21 cent drop is now a 9% drop
The ugly news: it is going to keep bleeding
Philippines is just another carrot that Nader is dangling. The Philippines is poor. Their government isn't going to pay for leron. Few private citizens have enough to pay for leron. With each dose costing over $1,000, the US has always been the only realistic option.
CYDY still has a much bigger market cap than HGEN. HGEN is a company that has great management. Cameron Durrant has successfully brought a couple dozen drugs to approval. Their mab has always had the support of Big Pharma, the government, and those in the know. Amazing that CYDY could still have a larger market cap. I guess that means that CYDY could keep falling.
It was nice seeing HGEN have a green day when the Nasdaq dropped 2.4%. Lately, HGEN would be red on the days that the Nasdaq was red. Nice to see that trend end.
It prematurely came this morning.
https://wsw.com/webcast/roth35/hgen/1811466
This feels like the M2M trial. What happened with the M2M trial?
Let us say you flipped a coin once a day for 365 days. You might have a good outcome on Mondays. Let us say you had 32 heads and 20 tails on Mondays. You could say that there is statistical significance on the Monday portion of the trial. Obviously, it is only random chance and one day of the week will go to a 32/20 split through sheer luck. That is like this trial. When you slice and dice a study, having 62 patients in one subgroup have a 24% advantage in a category means little to nothing to the FDA. The same as the NEWS2 results in the M2M trial. The FDA knows it could be random. There is a 0% chance of an EUA at this juncture. Maybe the study will be continued with only critical patients. Maybe a study of 1,000 patients. If the results are replicated, then an EUA is possible. A trial needs to meet its primary endpoint for the FDA to believe it is real and not random.
Let's say you flipped a coin once a day for 365 days. You might have a good outcome on Mondays. Let's say you had 32 heads and 20 tails on Mondays. You could say that there is statistical significance on the Monday portion of the trial. Obviously, it is only random chance and one day of the week is going to a 32/20 split through sheer luck. That is like this trial. When you slice and dice a study, having 62 patients in one subgroup have a 24% advantage in a category means little to nothing to the FDA. The same as the NEWS2 results in the M2M trial. The FDA knows it could be random. There is a 0% chance of an EUA at this juncture. Maybe the study will be continued with only critical patients. Maybe a study of 1,000 patients. If the results are replicated, then an EUA is possible. A trial needs to meet its primary endpoint for the FDA to believe it is real and not random.
CYDY dropped to $1.63 on November 10th due to positive vaccine news. This is far worse. I wonder if the stock price could go sub-$1.00 on Monday?
I wonder if the South Korean stock activity today was due to something real. If trial results are good, it makes sense that Humanigen would be in contact with their production partners to make sure they are ready to produce product. They certainly are going to want up-to-date information if they are preparing their presentation with the FDA for an EUA. There are a lot of different ways in which insider information can be leaked.
Cramer mentions Humanigen at the 15:00 point in the video.
So the government makes a clerical error and it costs our market cap $100 million? Nice. At least the stock price should rebound since the fall was based on a false premise.
I keep coming back to the overall success that the Mayo Clinic has had treating Covid. 1% of those treated for Covid at Mayo passed away. The national average is 3%. That is circumstantially perfect for lenz having a great trial. And Mayo's ICU mortality rate is 11.9% which is incredibly low and could only have been achieved if lenz is super effective.
Covid stocks always rebound.