13:39 Cabela's: September FBI background checks for firearm suggest strong demand for firearms - Feltl & Co. (13.10 +0.38)

Feltl & Co. notes that FBI background checks in September were higher than expected, leading the firm to believe that demand for firearms has remained high through the fall. The firm had expected slightly lower results due to channel checks at Cabela's stores and competitors as they thought the fall demand for firearms had not picked up substantially. However, the firm is encouraged by the strong year-over-year growth and the stable sequential improvement in background checks. In addition, the firm thinks the lead-up to hunting season has been strong with continued demand for firearms from political fear.

9:03AM CDE: Coeur d'Alene Mines announces plans to increase silver and gold production at its Rochester mine in Nevada (CDE) 18.55 : Co announces that it is pursuing an expansion of mining operations at its Rochester silver and gold mine in Nevada. This planned expansion is expected to add an average of 2.9 million ounces of incremental annual silver production and 30,000 ounces of further gold production through 2017.

Roubini Says Stocks Have Risen ‘Too Much, Too Soon, Too Fast’
(from Bloomberg)

By Shamim Adam and Francine Lacqua

Oct. 5 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the financial crisis, said stock and commodity markets may drop in coming months as the gradual pace of the economic recovery disappoints investors.

“Markets have gone up too much, too soon, too fast,” Roubini said in an interview in Istanbul on Oct. 3. “I see the risk of a correction, especially when the markets now realize that the recovery is not rapid and V-shaped, but more like U- shaped. That might be in the fourth quarter or the first quarter of next year.”

Stocks have surged around the world in the past six months as evidence mounts that the economy is emerging from its deepest recession since the 1930s. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has soared 51 percent from a 12-year low in March while Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 is up 48 percent. The euphoria contrasts with the cautious tone of Group of Seven policy makers, who said after meeting in Istanbul over the weekend that prospects for growth “remain fragile.”

“The real economy is barely recovering while markets are going this way,” Roubini said. If growth doesn’t rebound rapidly, “eventually markets are going to flatten out and correct to valuations that are justified. I see a growing gap between what markets are doing and the weaker real economic activities.”

‘Anemic’ Recovery

The International Monetary Fund predicts the global economy will expand 3.1 percent in 2010, led by growth in Asia, after a 1.1 percent contraction this year. That is still “anemic” and “very weak,” Roubini said.

U.S. stocks fell last week after manufacturing expanded less than anticipated and unemployment climbed to a 26-year high, fueling concern the economy is rebounding more slowly than forecast.

Gains in the S&P 500 have pushed valuations in the index to more than 19 times reported operating profits from the past year, data compiled by Bloomberg show. That’s near the most expensive level since 2004.

The performance of the U.S. economy is probably more sluggish than reflected in stock markets, risking a correction in equities, Nobel Prize-winning economist Michael Spence said last month. U.S. stock-market investors have “over processed” the stabilization of growth in the world’s largest economy, Spence said.

Creating Bubbles

The global equity rally has added about $20.1 trillion to the value of stocks worldwide since this year’s low on March 9. Governments have poured about $2 trillion of stimulus into the global economy while central banks have cut interest rates to close to zero in efforts to revive growth.

“In the short run we need monetary and fiscal stimulus to avoid another tipping point and to avoid deflation, but now this easy money has already started to create asset bubbles in equities, commodities, credit and emerging markets,” Roubini said. “For the sake of achieving growth stability again and avoiding deflation, we may be planting the seeds of the next cycle of financial instability.”

TSHO: Recommended over the wkend to Skymark members:

(I haven't looked at it yet but will watch to see if the Skymark recommendation does anything for it volumewise/pricewise.)

It is time for our latest analyst recommendation, TSHO, the Tradeshow Marketing Company Ltd.

After an amazing run with our last two recommendations; (i.e. SPNG from $0.02 cents to a high of $0.28) showing our subscribers anywhere from 500% to 1100% gains, and JAZZ from the initial entry of $0.74 to Friday's close of $7.75, showing subscribers 500% to 1000% gains (ref: Past Performance):

Monday morning we are ready to start positioning ourselves in our analysts next recommendation,TSHO.

Tradeshow Marketing Company Ltd (TSHO) is positioned to show our subscribers similar gains. TSHO is currently trading at $0.50/share, and with recent and upcoming developments, could very well demonstrate 200-500% gains. See right column for most recent news.

Tradeshow Marketing Company Ltd (TSHO) specializes in the direct sales and the As Seen on TV infomercial industry. TSHO is currently moving forward with plans for infomercials with 3-5 exclusive products.

Technical Analysis Resource

As shown, the overall rating for TSHO is Very Bullish. This supports our analyst's belief that TSHO is positioned to show our clients substantial returns in the coming months.
Some key points about TSHO:

The stock is trading at $0.50/share, with new developments announced, 23 million shares outstanding, and only 8 million shares in the float: TSHO could show our subscribers potential gains of 200-500%.

TSHO has a dedicated, experienced management team capable of establishing major revenues and shareholder value.

Our analysts last recommendation: SPNG, recently went forward with TV Infomercials. Since then, it has received multi-million dollar contracts and unbelievable awareness to it's stock. TSHO is poised to be next.

Unlike SPNG with 720 million shares outstanding, TSHO has only 23 million outstanding and multiple products ready to go....

....the sky is the limit for TSHO, and our subscribers are the first to know.

Could be interesting. Who told you TARM/TRGD would be presenting? I wonder if the audience will have hecklers in light of prior unmet expectations.

Have you heard anything about possible private placements for TRGD or TARM or TARM's new gold subsidiary?

Thanks for the update.

'peeker

Thanks, I corrected original message.

'peekr

Though QLTI will receive up to $230 million, they only get $20million now, $10million a year from now, and about $200 million of that will be made in quarterly installments beginning Jan2011 (each qtrly payment based on product sales) over the next 15 years (thru Oct 2024), someone needs to consider time value of money calculation before investing. Present value of the $230 million may be less than $100 million depending on what you use for annual percentage return on investment.

'peeker

ps> I bought some for a quick ride in a bumpy market.

Bob, even though you may be right about water shortages in the future, you have to be really careful about drinking only the special kind of koolaid (like renewable technologies that require little water) and investing on the right idea too early.

Wade, skittish sellers are selling; skittish buyers are not buying.

For instance, how many stocks have you bought today?

I'm skittish; yesterday I bought MSFT and today sold at a small loss. Today I bought QID after the job numbers, and I'm down on that brilliant move.

"Uncertainty" drives most stocks down.

'peeker

It's a strange day indeed when TRGD is my top performing PM stock.

MSFT: Parking some cash in MSFT as Windows 7 launches on 22 October, which should cause enough PR marketing to get a few buyers based on increased revenues for OS upgrades.

Yeah, I know, not VMC, but on a day like today, buying VMC stocks seems a little more risky than large caps.

'peeker (just licking my VMC wounds today)

Take a chill pill; calm down; stop breathing the swampgas.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=42043924

OFI details from TradeStation news at 12:15:

Overhill Farms Announces Sales and Distribution Agreement With J. R. Simplot Company

LOS ANGELES, CA, Sep 30, 2009 (MARKETWIRE via COMTEX) --
Overhill Farms, Inc. (NYSE Amex: OFI) today announced that it has entered into a sales and distribution agreement with J.R. Simplot Company which designates Simplot as the exclusive distributor of Overhill Farms products to some of the nation's largest foodservice accounts.

"We are very pleased to forge this partnership with Simplot, which has strong, long-established relationships with leading foodservice chains across the nation," said James Rudis, Chairman and CEO of Overhill Farms. "We believe the Simplot team's broad reach and high level of professionalism will accelerate the growth of our increasingly important foodservice business, and that this agreement can be a first step in an expanding relationship with Simplot."
Mr. Rudis noted that sales to foodservice customers are now the second largest source of revenues for Overhill Farms, after sales to retail customers. He said the company will continue to service its existing foodservice accounts and new foodservice customers who are not among those assigned to Simplot.

With annual sales of approximately $4.5 billion, J.R. Simplot is one of the largest privately held companies in the United States. It is a diversified company whose activities range from food production and sales to farming, ranching, mining and fertilizer manufacturing. Simplot, based in Boise, provides high-quality French fries, potato products, fruits, vegetables and other value-added specialty products to the foodservice industry and to major restaurant chains nationwide.

Kevin Storms, President of J.R. Simplot Food Group, noted, "We are extremely excited about the formation of this alliance with Overhill Farms. Leveraging our combined areas of expertise in the food industry will help to provide our customers with an even broader portfolio of high-quality and value-added products. We believe the foodservice industry will undergo dynamic change over the next few years as consumers continue to look for new alternative food choices, and Simplot will be extremely well-positioned to service these needs."

Mr. Rudis said, "We believe this relationship with Simplot can provide an opportunity in the near term for us to increase our success in expanding the foodservice sector of our business, which is an important part of our growth strategy. This agreement combines Overhill's extensive product offerings, product development skills and production capabilities with Simplot's extensive business relationships, marketing strength and nationwide sales and broker network."

Assisting Simplot and Overhill Farms in forming this agreement was 6Pacific Partners, a Los Angeles-based merchant banking firm.

Overhill Farms, based in Vernon, California, is a leading value-added supplier of custom high quality custom prepared frozen foods for branded retail, private label, foodservice and airline customers.

Alexander Auerbach
Auerbach & Co. Public Relations
1-800-871-2583
Email Contact

12:16 OFI distribution agreement news... should help OFI continue its climb, though P/E is already about 10.

Co announces that it has entered into a sales and distribution agreement with J.R. Simplot Company which designates Simplot as the exclusive distributor of Overhill Farms products to some of the nation's largest foodservice accounts.

BSPM now up .25 on no news; presentation yesterday must have been well-received. Did anyone catch a listen, or does anyone know where the presentation may be available for replay online?

CPHI: I avg'd down at 3.10 today thinking Armageddon is NOT just around the corner.

09:50 PMI down; taking mkt down (good news: QID up)

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for September was recently released and it came in at 46.1, which is below the 52.0 that was widely expected and down from the 50.0 that was registered in August. Prior to the report's release, stocks had surrendered their initial gains and moved into negative territory, but the disappointing report has prompted stocks to extend their slide so that all 10 major sectors are trading with losses, the steepest of which are seen in the consumer discretionary sector (-1.2%) and industrial sector (-1.3%). Dow -1.0%, Nasdaq -0.8%, S&P 500 -1.0%

Bernie, where do I send money?

OT: Cheech and Chong gold stock comparison:

If GORO were Oaxacan Gold,
And AGT were Canadian Locoweed,
Then TRGD would be Labrador ... man!

'peeker

ps> "Up in Smoke"

08:51 C target raised (helping financials today?)

Citigroup tgt raised to $6.50 from $4 at Rochdale (4.57)

Worth watching the likes of AGM?

CPHI uplisting PR came out after close today. Trades on AMEX Wednesday. Maybe the PR gives a boost for tomorrow.


04:01pm today:

China Pharma Holdings, Inc. Announces Approval for Amex Listing

HAIKOU CITY, China, Sept. 28 /PRNewswire-Asia-FirstCall/ -- China Pharma Holdings, Inc. ("China Pharma") (OTC Bulletin Board: CPHI - News), which develops, manufactures, and markets specialty pharmaceutical products in China, today announced that it has received approval to list its securities on NYSE Amex.

China Pharma expects to begin trading on NYSE Amex on Wednesday, September 30, 2009. In connection with its listing on NYSE Amex, the Company's ticker symbol will change to "CPHI" from "CPHI.OB."

Ms. Zhilin Li, CEO and President of China Pharma, commented, "It is a major milestone to move to NYSE Amex, and we are proud of our fulfillment of this target. We believe that NYSE Amex provides excellent exposure for companies from emerging markets, such as ours. This step underscores our commitment to generating long-term value for our shareholders."

Bought the CPHI uplisting koolaid today.

Looking for a good trip.

I think it's hella tight.

'peeker

PS> "You're either on the bus or off the bus."

OGC.to: Didipio sounds like a very expensive PR nightmare, so it must be considered a company maker by Oceanagold management. Likely that they'll eventually partner with someone (providing substantial funding for percent of operation's profit if they can get cheap warrants for OGC.to shares) after getting things rolling.

Let's hope they don't use the Shylocks (term used by Shakespeare for ruthless moneylenders, not intended to be considered an ethnic slur) who funded AGT.

'peeker

Pretty Conservative outlook for IAE.v:

Excerpt from First Energy Capital report on IAE:

Investment Recommendation
* To date, the Jacky producing well has performed
better than expected; however, we remain somewhat
cautious due to declining reservoir pressure
and the potential for the commencement of water
production. The addition of a water injector well to
help stabilize production could potentially result in
production beating our estimates.
* Our target price of $1.20 per share implies a 2010e
target DACF multiple of 3.1x. If our production
forecast continues to be on conservative side, there
is an opportunity for the multiple to decrease.
However, at this time we will remain cautious and
wait for the drilling of the Jacky water injector well
and greater production history from the Field.
* We maintain our Outperform ranking on Ithaca
Energy.

Sam Dan, thanks for posting the pics. Are these your pics or are they on TRGD site somewhere? How long do you think they have before beginning mill ops?

'peeker

07:52 Hapoalim Securities solar-energy analyst discusses solar stocks in Barron's interview

Barron's reports analyst says "The last time we spoke, First Solar was below 120, and I didn't think it was going higher. Now, it's 153. I was loved by my clients then. Now, people are scratching their heads... Nothing changed fundamentally. But First Solar made a couple of announcements. The current stock price is going to be a great entry point for short sellers. The stock is definitely overvalued."... What kind of global supply-demand picture do you see this year and in 2010? "For the photovoltaic sector, supply this year is going to be about 7.1 gigawatts [or billions of watts], and supply next year will be about 10.8 gigawatts. That's total supply. And that excludes all of the thin-film manufacturers, including First Solar. If you include them, the supply gets even bigger. As for demand, it will be about 4.3 gigawatts, maybe 4.4 gigs or 4.5 gigs. In 2010, you'll have demand of roughly 6 gigawatts. So, things will remain challenging for the solar companies."... What about crystalline polysilicon itself, the basic material for some solar cells? "Polysilicon guys must run their factories at 70% of capacity to break even. In 2005 and 2006, there was an eruption of solar demand due to aggressive incentives in Germany and then Spain. Polysilicon spot prices-which averaged roughly $30 to $40 a kilogram before 2005-went to $450. So, a lot of guys said, "Oh, my God. This is a great market to be in" and built plants. But it takes three years to construct a polysilicon plant. Now all these plants are coming on line, but the solar bubble has burst. Demand is down..." (Other stocks mentioned: WFR, YGE, TSL, SPWRA, STP)

08:13 Platinum & Palladium getting ahead of fundamentals

WSJ reports while gold is grabbing the headlines, its sister precious metals are actually reaping the most gains. For the year to date, platinum and palladium, two lesser-known metals, have surged 38% and 56%, respectively, far eclipsing gold's 12% gain. Silver is up 42% over the same period. With their dual roles as precious and industrial metals, platinum and palladium are managing to profit from both sides of the debate over whether an economic recovery is on the horizon... Some bulls view the metals as a bet on economic recovery, and on the struggling automobile sector in particular. Meanwhile, for those concerned about the fragility of economic conditions and the Federal Reserve's printing of money, some see the metals as a store of value like gold. However, despite "cash for clunkers" programs around the world boosting vehicle sales, analysts still think auto makers' demand for both metals will decrease this year. Even with output likely to decline because vital South African mines are plagued with power shortages and labor disputes, both the platinum and palladium markets still confront the threat of a surplus... With car makers in Detroit and elsewhere still facing weak sales, the rally in platinum and palladium seems to have gotten ahead of itself. Without the support of a sustainable rebound in industrial demand, prices could wane once stockpiling slows down. Any loss of faith in the strength of the expected global recovery would likely hurt the two metals a lot more than gold.

Kozuh is Lithuanian for "Still crazy after all these years ... "

HWTHF (Hawthorne Gold Corp): I added yesterday and today but would probably sell it in high .40s as gold recovers and the latest financing closes. I assume they will use funds to drill their properties to add additional Au to "proven" category.

Anyone hearing any negative warnings about Hawthorne ???

'peeker

Wade, AGM is getting hit harder today than all other financials that I track.

Did you ever unload a large portion of your AGM? IYHO, is this time to leave or add?

09:14 Global Biotech: Takeouts and Breakouts; a short list of better-than-average bets- Bernstein

Bernstein attempts to identify a number of candidates that they believe have a better-than-average potential to participate as either "takeouts" or "breakouts." The firm says they identified 28 takeout and 17 breakout candidates, as well as 3 companies falling into both categories. The companies that fall into both categories are Abraxis (ABII), Protalix (PLX), and Optimer (OPTR). Firm says the larger and more investable companies on their takeout list include Alexion (ALXN), Dendreon (DNDN), and United Therapeutics (UTHR). They say the comparable companies on the breakout list include Cell Therapeutics (CTIC), Allos (ALTH), and Pharmasset (VRUS). They say companies that show up on the list that may not be on most investors' radar screens yet include Crucell (CRXL) and Seattle Genetics (SGEN) as takeout candidates, and Ariad (ARIA), and Poniard (PARD) as breakout candidates.

09:01 BriefingTrader Column: With the rain suddenly beginning to fall, we're seeing the correlations we'd expected, with the dollar coming strongly off its lows, and stocks and commodities taking it on the chin. Generally speaking, trends like the one we've seen to the upside in recent months take at least a two-step process to reverse, or even to begin a significant correction. The first step, which I believe we're in now, is something I call "unlocking the door". It prepares people in larger positions to get nervous the next time the market shows weakness.

08:48 Petroleum Development profiled in Inside Wall Street section of Business Week (17.60)

Business Week reports shares of the co aren't showing much energy, stuck between 16 and 18 since May. But the stock, now at 18.46, may perk up: It has caught the eye of big investors who call it one of the best values in the oil patch. "With a yearly production growth rate of 12% and book value of 27, the stock at its current depressed price of 18 is a giveaway," says Scott Black, president of Delphi Management. Black says Petroleum Development is worth 53, based on its reserves, which consist of 81% natural gas and 18.5% crude oil. The company drills primarily in the Rockies, the Appalachians, and Michigan.

08:37 Gold is currently down $12.70 to $986.20, silver is currently off 28.5 cents to $16.01. Note that crude oil also dropped to its lowest levels, at $65.05, and is now down 69 cents to $65.20.

Hawthorne arranges $4.5-million financings

2009-09-24 22:04 ET - News Release

Mr. Richard Barclay reports

HAWTHORNE ANNOUNCES EQUITY OFFERING TO RAISE UP TO $4.5 MILLION

Hawthorne Gold Corp. has arranged a non-brokered private placement consisting of up to 5,555,555 units at 45 cents per unit to raise gross proceeds of up to $2.5-million.

Each unit will consist of one common share in the capital of the company and one-half of a transferable share purchase warrant. Each whole warrant will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one common share at a price of 55 cents per common share for a period of 12 months following the closing of the non-brokered offering. The warrants will be subject to an accelerated exercise provision in the event that the common shares have closed at or above the price of 75 cents or more for a period of 10 consecutive trading days after closing of the non-brokered offering. If this occurs, the company can elect to give notice to the warrantholders by news release that the warrants will expire 30 days following the date of such news release.

The company has also entered into an engagement letter with J.F. Mackie & Company Ltd. for a brokered private placement of up to 3.71 million flow-through common shares of the company at a price of 54 cents per flow-through share for total proceeds of up to approximately $2-million. The agent is acting as lead agent for the brokered offering and will offer the flow-through shares on a commercially reasonable-efforts agency basis. Pursuant to the terms of the engagement letter, the agent will have the option, exercisable up to 48 hours prior to closing of the brokered offering, to increase the size of the brokered offering by up to an additional 1,845,555 flow-through shares at the same price per flow-through share as is applicable to the brokered offering. If the agent exercises the agent's option in full, the brokered offering will consist of 5,555,555 flow-through shares for total proceeds of up to approximately $3-million.

The units and the flow-through shares will be made available by way of private placement exemptions to accredited investors (as such term is defined in National Instrument 45-106, Prospectus and Registration Exemptions) in the provinces of British Columbia, Alberta and Ontario, and in certain jurisdictions outside of Canada as may be agreed upon by the agent and the company.

It is anticipated that the non-brokered offering and the brokered offering will close concurrent with one another and that such transactions will close on or before Oct. 15, 2009.

On closing of the non-brokered offering, Hawthorne may pay a fee in connection with funds sourced by eligible finders up to the maximum amount permitted by the policies of the TSX Venture Exchange.

On closing of the brokered offering, Hawthorne will pay the agent a cash commission equal to 7 per cent of the gross proceeds of the flow-through shares sold, and will issue the agent non-transferable broker warrants, equal to 7 per cent of the total number of the flow-through shares sold. Each broker warrant will entitle the holder thereof to purchase one common share at a price of 68 cents per common share for a period of 12 months following the closing of the brokered offering. The company will also reimburse the agent for reasonable fees and expenses incurred in connection with the brokered offering.

Closing of the non-brokered offering and the brokered offering is subject to a number of conditions, including the receipt of all necessary corporate and regulatory approvals, including approval from the TSX-V. All securities issued in connection with the non-brokered offering and the brokered offering will be subject to a statutory hold period of four months plus one day from the date of issuance in accordance with applicable securities legislation.

Proceeds from the non-brokered offering and the brokered offering will be used to finance the continued resource and mine development of the company's Cassiar gold mine and Taurus gold deposit and for general corporate working capital.

14:41 PZG: Paramount Gold and Silver: Klondex Advises Paramount of its Decision to Terminate Agreement (1.38 -0.01)

Co announces that it has been advised by Klondex Mines that it has withdrawn its support and therefore breached its binding letter agreement of July 20, 2009 in which it had agreed to support a combination of the two companies on the basis of 1.45 shares of common stock of Paramount for each common share of Klondex. Paramount said "the decision by the Klondex board of directors to withdraw its support and breach the July 20, 2009 letter agreement between Paramount and Klondex triggers a break fee of $2.85 million payable to Paramount... may also be entitled to significant damages resulting from the Klondex board of directors decision." Klondex claims that it is not proceeding with the Agreement due to an alleged misstatement of material facts by Paramount in Paramount's NI-43-101 Technical Report dated November 20, 2008. Paramount specifically and emphatically rejects these allegations, noting that the issues raised by Klondex with respect to the Paramount NI-43-101 Technical Report are minor, not material and have no adverse impact on the valuation of Paramount.

No reason to stand in front of a train!

Point: QID can be bought during a downdraft; you don't need to stockpile QID or other ultrashort ETFs to hedge your positions (though some here have been doing just that).

Yesterday the volume picked up significantly on QID at around 2:30PM as the market started hinting at a reversal (following Fed statements). Look at the 15min chart of QID to see what I'm talking about. High QID volume continued early today on disappointing home sales (but volume has fallen off as the market has flattened out).

IMHO, if you believe the market will eventually correct significantly from the current exuberant highs but you don't have any idea when the correction will start, or from what level, IT IS NOT WISE to buy and stockpile QIDs before you actually see evidence of a significant correction in the works. In other words, it is foolish to fantasize that you are the Great Swami with crystal balls trying to predict the market top (by buying QID too early). WAIT until the market PROVES a significant correction is underway. Then sell your most liquid stocks and buy QID, or other ultrashort ETFs, or short emini futures.

Regards,
'peeker

10:27 Rebound in the dollar adds to pressure on commodities complex... Crude oil is now -2.78 at 66.19; Gold is now -16.70 at 997.70

Hmmm... heavy concentration in Jr. gold and silver companies comes into question!

TRGD at .30 ... will wonders never cease?

Praise God; praise Biscan; praise be to all who believe in spite of all evidence to the contrary ...

'peeker

AGT: I have Haywood recommendation doc (AGT IR rep Marlene just emailed it to me). Send Request to stockpeeker AT gmail DOT com and I'll send you one.