Snow - as we have discussed, I also suddenly could not post (or bookmark a board or member, or ignore a member) on RB. Today I set up a new account there and could post fine under the new id.

CNCN project delayed but still on the board

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060120/0106932.html

text indicates project involes "one of the biggest financial institutions in Korea" and "billions of terabytes of data" (huh?)

CNCN project delayed but still on the board

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060120/0106932.html

text indicates project involes "one of the biggest financial institutions in Korea" and "billions of terabytes of data" (huh?)

CNCN news - project delayed but still on the board...

http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/060120/0106932.html

Sheep-tipping, VMC-style :)

It occurred to me that many of the stocks that are "sheep" stocks made it into the flock through the information on the VMC board. Over time, respected posters build credibility and a good track record. We refer to this as a body of DD, informative posts, etc. but from afar they probably look and smell like "tips".

The "sheep" follow these "tips". Sheep-tipping lives!

You probably could buy the existing calls back and sell some further out (at a higher premium given the same strike price). That transaction would net cash to you, and not require an outlay.

Your broker should allow you to do this as one "package" deal that does not require cash up front (Schwab certainly does this).

10 bagger - I have always thought that Fifth Third Bank should merge with Three Five Systems to rationalize both operations...:)

What the flock?

The sheepishness index is interesting. Lots of baaaaa-d boys.

Some of us, like me, are part of the flock because we shamelessly crib ideas from the board (and, therefore, the contestants).

I hereby thank you all for those ideas, without any shred of apology.

I said thank you, not I'm sorry - the difference is meaningful.

Looking at the list, I have to conclude that some flockers "flock" because they are well respected posters who post early, often and consistently about their ideas and their track record is well respected, leading to a lot of contestants glomming onto their picks.

With apologies to snakeman84 and melstob, who are even more sheepish than hweb, hweb at #3 on the sheep parade stands out as an example of someone that drives a lot of other contestants' picks. What is the sheep equivalent of a bell cow? Hweb, methinks!

snakeman84 and melstob--no offense intended at all! I hope for your sake your are as good a stock picker as hweb is. I'm simply guessing that harry (hweb), caused more people to pick one of his favs than you guys did, and therefore ended up "sheepish" by being an opinion leader, odd as that may seem.

I hereby dub Hweb "E. F. Mutton". :)

Sheep-up, ya mutha-flockers! :)

We're gonna flock around the clock tonight...We're gonna flock, flock, flock till the broad day light--and then we'll do it again since the markets are closed on Monday.

Hey Len and SSK - here's an idea for you. For PSL3, request that each contestant ante up $1 via Paypal to you guys.

Use the funds to award the winner with a premium membership. Or give the winner 6 months and the runner up 3 months, whatever the funds allow.

Just a thought.

Honor system--I suspect most would ante up. I'd certainly pay a buck to play, even though I don't expect to win.

I believe you have my picks incorrect.

You list: nsomniyak: AOB, IAIC.ob, PYTM.ob, SUWN.ob, TELT.ob, ZENX.ob


I had PYTM.OB originally, Len said I needed a higher price stock and I substituted IAIC.OB.

After the substitution Len requested, my picks should be: AOB, IAIC.ob, PYTM.ob, SUWN.ob, TELT.ob, ZENX.ob

It looks as though you have IAIC.OB substitued for MED, as opposed to PYTM.OB

Len "D." Tinman does have a certain cachet to it...

Mr. Sheep is certainly one baaaaaa-d stock picker...:)

Joe - I'd also like to see reactions to others' picks, and will be going through the list for investment ideas.

However, I don't think I will actually rate every single stock. I don't have the time, and, for certain sectors, I either don't have the expertise or interest.

I'll probably try to identify the most intriguing 5 or so NEW ideas that catch my eye, then let the market tell me which of the rest were in fact good ideas. I'd be very happy to see others indicate the best 5 new ideas they got from the pick list.

I do have an objective of identifying at least one stock in PSL2 that leads me to a successful real trade in the PSL2 timeframe.

What would be helpful is for each contestant to post a 1-2 sentence rationale behind each of their picks early next week. That would give us more than just alphabet soup to go on.

tim - I'm with ya--put in my picks a week ago and two moved a week too early for contest purposes. Since they are probably my most sheepish picks, I imagine a lot of contestants are coming into PSL2 with a higher-than anticipated basis.

However, since I actaully own them, all is good. :)

correct --the shares issued to AHM will be restricted. That can affect trading, since they are not in the float, but restricted or not makes no difference in a valuation calculation such as p/s or eps. Those shares are still part of the pie.

I am really hoping they can sit on the final merger announcement until after they get the otcbb listing. WIll get a lot more eyeballs on it if they can.

Ok--I'm in, as of yesterday. I think we have "three swings"

--move to otcbb

--merget with AHM (by my pro-forma figuring, there will be 280MM shares out, revenue of $100MM (if PR is true), giving revenue per share of .35. I can't see ETLC trading at a p/s of .20. Also, there is a chance of the combined entity actually being profitable--ETLC lost 2MM, if AHM can make $2MM+ on 100MM (only a 2% margin) we'll see black ink. If rofitable and on otcbb the price will certainly be north of .10

--product launch. Not sure I even really care but there would seem to be at least some potential here

oooh, a man of mystery...

I am not sure which is worse--having to reboot your computer from a power shut off (your case), or having to read RB without the ignore button, (my case) :(

OT: Snow-Here is what I am experiencing on RB:
i can click on a board name, then navigate through the posts on that board. When i am done. the number of unread posts on that board refledts the posts I have clicked through. So, at a minimal level, I can READ posts.

However, I can't...
...click on the number of unread posts on a given board
...click on a member name I want to either ignore or membermark
...add a new membermark or board mark
...click post new message or Reply

when I attempt to do so, I go off into never-never land, get a flickering screen that seem to be trying to do SOMETHING but does not accomplish anything, then time out.

Ugly with a capital UG.

Frustrating. There are so many RB posters who are just crying to be ignored...

OK Len--

for the record, my picks were all .15 and above. Gotta swing for the fences here--first place is glory, top 10 is nice, and then there is the rest (aka the great unwashed).

If you are in it, be in it to WIN it!

I did not pick the real low-priced .OB stocks I like!

I do have my eye on a few profitable pinkies that might go .OB in Q1...:)

and if PYTM does kick butt, I'll make note of it, then quietly move on. One post, for the record, no more. :)

It is not a big deal.

I'll send a replacement stock between now and Friday.

Joe

fair enough. I will ready a back-up pick or two, just in case.

For some reason I can't post on RB - so, you might want to check out Potse's posts on the RB board for CNCN.

He's taken the same "follow the money" path I have been researching, and has identified (probably, in his estimation) a couple of prominent finance and telecom execs among the CNCN convertibles investors. I think his speculations are on target.

Assuming this conclusion is correct, and we're seeing prominent Korean executives in the telecom and venture capital arenas plunking down 6-figure (in $) chunks of their own money at above-market prices in CNCN, then this is great news.

My thesis is that most of these investors are affiliated somehow with CNCN's customers, partners or suppliers, and know what is in the pipeline.

Hats off to Potse for getting these hits (he went well beyond the lead guy I had difficulty to linking to CNCN). I will say that the links he has uncovered made me even more confident that Tai Bok Kim, the individual who has put up more than anyone else, is also somehow affiliated with a CNCN customer, supplier or partner or is no more than one degree of freedom removed from them.

Snow - actually, I agree with you - the revenue projection by CNCN was at least very optimistic and possibly irresponsible.

For now I am operating under the assumption that there was not an intent to mislead investors, that this was simply unbridled optimism.

Eventually, a good microcap mgt team will learn to undercommit and overdeliver. It is not surprising for even a well-intentioned management team to miis this mark wdely though.

In the microcap world, everything takes longer than was expected and then often happens faster than you could have imagined...

CNCN - thanks ez2flip for the info in your message, and thanks for digging into the investors' backgrounds. I still think that a "follow the money" approach here will be most useful. I also did some further poking around, essentially trying to find something like a Korean version of "Who's Who" but so far came up empty. I suspect I am seeing a westernized version of names in the press releases and the individuals' Korean history may be found under another form of the name.

Like you, my conclusions are still incomplete, but I am intrigued by this line of DD and intend to keep trying.

Getting some id on who the investors are has to be helpful. Are they in the finance community in Korea? Affiliated with CNCN's customers or potential customers, etc.?

thanks ez2flip for the info in your message, and thanks for digging into the investors' backgrounds. I still think that a "follow the money" approach here will be most useful. I also did some further poking around, essentially trying to find something like a Korean version of "Who's Who" but so far came up empty. I suspect I am seeing a westernized version of names in the press releases and the individuals' Korean history may be found under another form of the name.

Like you, my conclusions are still incomplete, but I am intrigued by this line of DD and intend to keep trying.

Getting some id on who the investors are has to be helpful. Are they in the finance community in Korea? Affiliated with CNCN's customers or potential customers, etc.?

Len - re: a trading deadline

I think you have grasped the essence of this idea and articuated it and the rationale behind it better than I ever could have.

You are correct--there would have been a lot of "shoot the moon" moves taken in last-minute desparation--why not--it's not even only money and there is nothing to lose. Not what VMC is all about. In addition to being somewhat at odds with a VMC philosophy, you and SSKILLZ would have beeen pulling your hair out trying to track,let alone report and communciate to others, all the last-minute changes.

fwiw--although I am not in any way involved in running PSL, I too am to some degree an "organizer". I'm always the guy who got the touch football game together, or organizes and runs the golf outing, etc. Lots of people tell me "you should do this or that", without regard to what it takes to make that happen, let alone happen under control.

Anything you put in place to make PSL more workable will find support in this quarter. I certainly like the idea of seeing all the bets placed, and the ball rolling as the roulette wheel spins through the last couple days.

CNCN --Bob--this one has caught my attention.

I called J.D. and chatted today. Absolute stonewall--he's pretty good. I am readying for round 2.

I asked about "who are these guys" making the private investments? Nothing -"we have nothing in our press releases about who they are".

I asked "I tried Googling the name of the lead investor (Tai Bok Kim) and got nothing--can you tell me anything about him?" and got "there's nothing in the press releases..."

fwiw--I tried this several ways, and will keep trying on sites like korea.net--I suspect that anyone who can put a couple mil into a company has some net history (if he was really mysterious, we would not even have a name!), though I may need a Korean translator to get to the bottom of this. If this dude really wanted to stay that far behind the scenes, he could have formed some shell partnership to hide his name--this IS a solvable problem). THis guy bought ove 20% of the Fully diluted shares--he's got to have some tracks on the web!

I asked about "why move to Louisville" and got little, except a mention that they like the business community, and like their neighbors (i.e. a national UPS distibution center). SOmewhat disingenious.

The move of the US HQ to Louisville, and for that matter the hiring of JD himself, are happening now for a reason.

I'm going on record here as saying that I think they have some US distribution deals in the works, and that they are specificially at least part of the reason for the concurrent change of US headquarters and the projection of prospective 4th qtr 2005 deals (while these are late they are clearly not yet abandoned).

I think they like being in the same city as a UPS distribution center--but for the life of me I can't see why. They are not amazon.com

Anybody out there capable of reading Korean? I'd like to have someone track down "who are these guys"--take the names of the Korean investors and get some bios. Who are these guys? I'd sure like to know if they have ties to Sony, Samsung, or Korea Telecom, etc. :) I will admit, I get lost with Korean names (what happens when they are westernized? and why is eveyone named Kim?). Seriously--Kim there is like JOnes or Smith here, and I have a strong feeling that I am phrasing my internet searches incorrectly.

fwiw--J.D. complimented me for being a diligent (potential)investor. He's right. But -- I am not finished :)

If someone can provide me concrete evidence that the above-market investors are linked to CNCN's customers, or potential customers, then I am going to back up the truck.

Can anyone help a brother here?

Len - I hereby pledge not to pick ANY O&G stocks! :)

I will probably lose, but I refuse to lose to oily sheep! And the concept of "sheep gas" is one I choose not to explore...However, "sheep tipping" does have a certain cachet to it...

p.s. if your chosen sheep smells of petrochemicals, do us both a favor and find another sheep...get over it...there can be another ewe...

both of you are right. we don't care. too little, too late.

it is a tough world, but there is an old Russian folk saying that applies here...


...tough-ski, s**t--ski

nope.

fwiw--I like this co. and my chnaces with this stock.

nsomniyak

Nope.

I'd prefer to support the stocks I beleive in, rather than knock them down.

yes, the price has been eroding but on relatively low volume. I still like my chances on this one. Too bad it does not qualify for PSL2 or it would be my first pick.

If you read the maineBiz article it makes it very cleear that while SRGX is bidding on contracts collectively valued in thehundreds of millions of dollars, to get 10% of that would be "a very good year".

I don't expect them to bring home hundreds of millions, but I like the fact that they are going after some big fish.

bob - did the guy at CNCN that you talked to give you any clue as to who some of those private placement investors are, especially the guy that took down 20+ percent of the fully-diluted compnay?

Len and/or sskillz1 - couple questions for you.

Does FICC qualify for the contest? Market cap may be on the high side--about $615MM. Not a big deal to me--might not even pick it.

Also--assuming I start with a cash position and 5 stocks, can I trade that cash for a stock that does not meet the VMC criteria on 1/13/06 but subsequently qualifies against those criteria by the time of the trade? Many of my best ideas (I think) are stocks that aren't quite there yet. I have some bbs stocks that are not yet profitable, but I believe to be right on the cusp--could I trade cash for one of those stocks if it announces a (first) profitable quarter during PSL2? Similarly, I have one or two profitable pink sheet stocks in mind that have announced intentions to move to the bbs. Can I trade ito one of those if it fact it does begin trading on the bbs during PSL2?

Finally--can the trade or freeze actions be done at any point up to the end of the contest? I'm thinking you might get swamped with a flurry of last-minute activity that might overwhelm you guys during the last week as folks desparately maneuver. That would also make the stretch run difficult for the contestants to follow, as though new horses jumped into the Kentucky Derby as the pack was coming around the final turn. You might want to consider having a "trading deadline" (say a couple weeks before the contest ends?). You'll still have a pre-deadline flurry, but the admin work for you guys will not be right on top of that related to closing out the contest (and presumably launching PSL3!), and the contestants would be able to follow the re-set picks of the contenders down the stretch in the race to the wire. Just a thought.

Wade - I agree that PDGE looks to have more upside than HOM. Additionally, PDGE has a (possible) kicker if they do in fact follow through and move to the Amex...

Len--I think you should constrain the contest to whatever is sufficiently easy for you to administer!

I don't really care--I was just pointing out some reasons why you might expect a little more variance under the PSL2 rules.

darn--had my eyes on RMSG for a year-end lowbaall--but today's Cornell financing (std Cornell---toxic convertible preferred) has scared me away.

will look elsewhere. :(

I was looking at RMSG, with the possibility of a lowball order at Year-End to enter a position until today's announcement (Cronelll financing--toxic convertibles). I will invest elsewhere.