I am updating my staus.
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LPIH - not that I'm aware - it up for doing 30 cents ish.. so were still P/E less than 10 and then there's the new factory at some point in the near future....
Probably more a case of consolidating after it's run up...
rich
TMI Totally mad... and the madness continues TMI up 85 cents ... TMI warrants up 35 cents... Hey market man where's my other 50 cents
rich
TMI WS is the max price $6? If they were in line with shares I'm thinking we should be there already. So the rest is arbitriage?
Now, all I have to do is work out how to exercise them, if that's the right word hmm...
rich
EDS Glad it's a starting point. I'll look at IDI - IDEATION ACQUISITION - over the weekend. Someone thought it looked a better company.
http://www.super-trades.blogspot.com/
rich
TMI - as with all TMI Drexion was first
rich
TMI - favourite fact is 95% cheaper to advertise on TMI than TV.
Look at slide 22 - they talk about CPM which is basically Cost per Thousand ad views. So taking the first row in Shanghi TMI charge 3.61 RMB for 15 second slot while the TV charges 140 RMB - to me this looks like a company that will nudge up the charges once they have the customers on board (pun intended).
rich
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6666227-29968-59760&type=sect&dcn=0000950123-09-015690
EDS I've scanned 460 pages, I can't say read , of the filing document [1]
They have 1000's of stores...
They have 3% of the sports market in China
As FanPaw noted they could not anywhere as big a brand as suggested on sohu pole
Looking at F-36 they did RMB 151,135,000 in first half of 2008 vs 111,925,000 in first half of 2009. They are claiming they had inventory issues (couldnt' get things to market due to weather) and that sales were tougher in China in 2009 vs 2008 though I thought spending was meant to be up in China?
I'm using 28 Million shares on the basis of [2] and taking $16,378,000 profits after tax (note the tax looks very low, $85,000 and surely that has to change).. that gives 58 cents a share. In 2008 the second half of the year was weaker than the first (granted this was an unusual year)... but if we take a simple double that $1.16.
Net profits in 2008 were affected by aborted IPO charge once this is removed they did $32 million. They are projecting 38 million according to presentation [3] which would be 18% growth but as I say since they are not matching first half of the years 2008 sales I'm unconvinced. The presentation is calling this 54% growth btw but that's because of the one time charges in 2008 taking net income down.
Cash has confused me... they are share redemptions going on and the cash is in trust fund.. there's 68million and I don't know if the access it or not or if it's escrow (sigh) but were not talking more than $1 to $2 a share.
They are are also losening the credit terms I think from 60 to 120 days... so cash flow is going to take a hit.
Anyway, it's a 460 page doc.. I've done my best.. I can't see without knowing how much cash and how it's going to be used, in particular how many stores they are opening/ have opened, and how this will boost their flagging 2009 revenues and flatish income. They have lots of pretty projections for store openings in the presentation but I haven't found the details.
I don't think I will spend any more time looking at this company. Drexions Warrant arbitration play looks more interesting than the common with my level of understanding.
With my understanding it's worth $12 - $13 and so seems fairly valued (given 20% movement in a day I could well be wrong!) If I can understand the growth plan it's worth more to me up to $20 but I don't as yet.Given new management, untested, and low upsides doesn't feel Emerging Caps stuff. Am I missing anything?
rich
[1] http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1396016/000114420409051615/v162041_424b3.htm
[2] http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Exceed-Company-Ltd-Announces-iw-3241740844.html?x=0&.v=1
[3] http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6712695-390673-436924&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-09-038890
Cheers Palacian that all makes sense - I like the idea and of course the more people that follow it the more likely it becomes self full-filling
I assume most people use a broker that includes a suite of tools that includes support and restistance. The broker I'm with has no tools whatsover... I'm grateful for HTML page
From my point of view I should just look at a graph and see where it tops out and bottoms and make a note on a down day and keep my fingers crossed.
rich
Cheer Trader, not a simple answer - I was afraid of that
I'll have to buy at random prices, every market needs a patsey.. .
rich
Hi trader,
Dumb question. What do people base their support levels on? looking at graphs or intraday lows or something? I don't have the ability to become a trader but was hoping I could get a bit savier at adding to my positions.
cheer
rich
p.s. I appreciated your advice over CDBT - no advice ever refused.
northenlightsk05 - I appreciate your efforts.. I've read other postings on other boards which you've made and can't believe that you would be-smirch your name on this matter.
I'm sure you have given your honest opinion - whatever the subsequent outcome... good luck.
cheers
rich
Cheers Drexion - was getting no luck from yahoo! eom
Hello Northern Lights..
Are we looking at a news sight? Or a blogg?
I guess the remarkable thing is that it could be shut down for months without this information filtering to the West?
rich
Mr Sykes Thank you - it does seem cleaner. Is there an example of a company that has done it the correct way? I would like to read their 10-K's etc to see how it looks.
rich
Drexion@EDS
Thank you for your PM on this matter. You referred to an EDS document about the company and the warrants (300 page job ) is there anywhere I can find this tomb? Just wanted a bit more background and perhaps even a balance sheet.
And yes.. I'm GorillaGorilla on yahoo / fool etc...
cheers
rich
YONG Marvellous I knew they didn't open those stores for nothing Also note that the expansion is in Southern China where they grow throughout the year... *Might* help Q4 and Q1 which sucked in previous years.
rich
Mr Sykes,
Thank you for the insight into the process of going public.
I was under the aprehension, you can tell me if I should insert miss, that Chinese companies couldn't list directly on the US stock exchange so the reverse takeover was a way to get around that?
Are you saying that they could IPO directly?
rich
bunky@Coal
I don't know either.
Well, I am hoping that some of the mines that PUDA is acquiring will have some coking ore - they wash coking coal so they are in the right area.
Though I don't think anyone knows what coal the mines contain but you'd think they would mention it if they had some?
rich
-------------------------
In related matter:
I read an artical a while a go that implied that thermal coal would be next on the importing list.
I know that mine restructuring would affect the supply / demand equation by reducing supply so this might be a temporary reason...
Interesting article I can't read past the first sentence:
http://en.sxcoal.com/NewsDetail.aspx?cateID=177&id=25535
"Coal prices are likely to rise in China during the fourth quarter, fueled by demand, production, safety and seasonal factors."
rich
Wake Up Washington! China Is Already Dumping the Dollar
Thoughtfull stuff...
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/357648/Wake-Up-Washington!-China-Is-Already-Dumping-the-Dollar-Niall-Ferguson-Says?tickers=FXI,PGJ,UUP,UDN,GLD,TBT,DBC
rich
Peabody: Coking Coal Exports 10 times last year.
-- Coal miner Peabody Energy Corp. said China's imports of coal used for steelmaking this year through August were 10 times last year's pace. India has said it may face coal shortages of 200 million tons per year by 2014, meaning it will have to import more, too.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Quicker-rebound-for-exporters-apf-1505362905.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=3&asset=&ccode=
So, during global recession, China is becoming a net importer of Coking coal. I've also read that China will become net importer of other types of coal as well - forgotten the time lines.
rich
I, tend to find, markets are forward looking. Coal mining has much better margins than coal washing - the fundamentals going forward, assuming they execute the mine reopenings, will make a mockery of all those numbers.
Lets throw in the rising price of coal - and the GS projection for higher prices in 2010.
So, I can honestly say the near term pps for PUDA isn't important, providing the mines are going to open - which is the information I have available currently.
rich
CSOL - Best not leave these things to chance
rich
EDS Presentation:
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6712695-390673-436924&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-09-038890
They claim voted favourite brand on sohu? Anyone agree?
rich
LMB is there some filngs I've missed on this one? EDS looks interseting but not got enough info, sigh.
Hmmm, wonder if warrants are similar situation as TMI? That would be toooo nice.
rich
YONG CSP - yup these reports lead to confusion - expecting pullback but hoping for better
rich
YONG - Note that CGA are nicking YONG's sales strategy...
Educting farmers
Opening branded stores...
http://finance.yahoo.com/marketupdate/inplay#cga
Something must be working for YONG and CCGA want's in
rich
YONG
Previous Q2
Rev 46,271,544
Gross 24,334,667
Margin 53%
Net Inc before tax 15,976,641
Net Income 11,384,865
Margin 25%
EPS 0.37
Shares 30,946,016
Restated Q2
Everything the same until other expenses down....
rich
YONG: Look at the restated accounts vs the original...
Looks like a derivative liablity thing...
restated
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6845414-1161-174564&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-09-053638
Original
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6763838-1155-144309&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-09-044678
In restated accounts have added:
Increase in fair value of derivative liabilities
5,276,958
Without that I think we would have our 37 cents...
rich
2020 ChinaCap Acquirco Inc
Chinese Sports brand - just come to market on reverse takeover.
Presentation
http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6712695-390673-436924&type=sect&dcn=0001144204-09-038890
Supertrades reckons value almost convered in cash... but can't find 10-Q (yet)
http://seekingalpha.com/article/166202-three-new-china-stocks-might-be-coming-to-market
rich
CDBT: Trader I appreciate the advice of someone more experienced
I have no problem with cutting a loss if it looks a dog. I am laying out the facts as far as I can see them. And keep my own decisions to myself (unless people really want to know).
cheers
rich
Is it fair to sum boards thought as:
Nice figures.
Worries: can keep payments on the loans?
Probably need more cash?
Otherwise, undervalued.
If loans kept being paid and cash balance increased the company should fly?
rich
CDBT
I couldn't get Google page translation to work.
When I cut and paste the first message into a translation application it seems to agree with what was written.
I used:
http://babelfish.yahoo.com/
It looks like a posting on a blogg - perhaps cut and pasted from a news story but would prefer the original source.
The province looks correct. The story mentions NASDAQ and this is an OTC company.
I have phoned, quite bravely I thought, the number in China from the last 10-Q.... for my troubles I have got a repeating message that stopped after a while and phone hung up. Anyone know what they are saying? Probably you dialled the wrong number sucker or this number not recognised.
0086 -931 8441248
I have tried to phone the contact number on the NT on Friday morning and on Monday afternoon and got his answer phone. I have left my contact details on Friday but not had a reply back.
Peter D Zhou 212-232-0058 (US number)
-------------------
Comments on the poster...
Newly created ID.
Using suggestion - I parahrase "I read this news today and sold at small loss" I want to know what made them come to conclusion and not what they did.
Encouraging people to phone knowing people dont.
I haven't phoned the numbers on the blogg either ... since I didn't understand the piece and could only imagine the confusion of English speaker to Chinese speaker on subject that were not sure on. I hope their are braver investors than me?
I should say I have never contacted the company before so I don't know if this is a normal state of affairs or not.
rich
MSYT Hehe... I would have settled for 5% but I'll take 24%. I think we've all been surprised by the strength of some Chinese stocks recently.
rich
Economist.com: China's private coalmines
http://www.economist.com/world/asia/displayStory.cfm?story_id=14663437
rich
Why not gap up? With law suit gone can any make a case for this being worth less than $2?
China economy good > 8% growth.
The future's so bright I'm going to have to wear shades.
rich
What to expect in 10K?
I'm fast tracking the DD on this company in the hope that they will release reasonable results. This is what I'm expecting? Any old timers on the board see mistakes or is that pick your brains?
FY
Revenues 90 million
Net Margins 7%
EPS 11 cents
Outstanding 58 million
Cash - Anything above 190K is good - recover from cash crunch
I'm guessing that since Q4 is a strong quarter vs Q3 cash might be caught up in receivables?
Convertable Debt - 2.1 Million
Loans Payable - 1.5 Million
Q4
Rev 38 Million
Net income 3 million
EPS 0.05 cents
We are expecting that some of the convertable debt has been paid off? I'm not understanding the subtleties... I assume they are having problems getting hands on cash and paying off the convertables?
Hope I'm not confusing anyone, other than myself
rich
Yup, like the stock.. lots of growth for low p/e
rich
Kuwlness@CKGT I did start to make that argument but it was all the same as far as she was concerned. She is qualified as Dr, but no longer practices, so I'm not in a position to argue.
I will have to hope that brainwashing communists into becoming consumerists is as profitable as smoking.
rich
CKGT: CSP you probably bought my shares! Girlfriend found out they are going to sell ciggarrets and made me sell. Sigh. I've bought some TMI warrents instead.
GF wanted me to tell everyone they are bad but I figured you know that already
rich
MYST: tothe much appreciated.
rich