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TSLA/Porsche - So after much hyping from Porsche about Taycan being the fastest 4 dr sedan ever tested at Nuremberg, a German magazine decides to hand time some warm up laps from Tesla Model S - Plaid version with Goodyear racing tires. The difference is around 20 seconds. Poor Porsche, after all their great engineering and 3 years of testing and refinement gets blown out of the water with warm up laps. Venture backer of Musk says he is ultra competitive. Boy that is an understatement.
https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/elektroauto/tesla-model-s-vs-porsche-taycan-nordschleife-nuerburgring-rekord-rundenzeit-elektroauto/
Ps. Tesla current production S model is call the "Raven" and it will be interesting to see times from that too. Plaid is available in a year. Taycan starts delivery mid year 2020.
AIMT - interesting dispersion between market and recent sell side analysts targets assuming final FDA clearance early next year. Stock acts like the bull argument is fully reflected if not more, yet valuation seems low if you believe the analysts are too optimistic on sales ($1+ to 1.5B) by 2X. Not sure what to make of it. Decided to sell some puts anyway. Had sold some $15 puts last week and those will expire on Saturday. Technical support is ~22 prior to release of FDA pre-meeting notes last week. May just buy the shares outright.
That was the right thing to do then. Now renewables are cheap and getting cheaper so it will be like trying to change the weather.
XOM - they just don't get it. Perhaps Lee Raymond is still running things behind the curtain or inertia is so much easier to follow than a change in trajectory.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/09/16/oil-industry-electric-car-1729429
The fires were spectacular. But it is just a gathering station for de-souring. IMO the market is pricing in the risk of escalation. First pass impression is to follow his lead in a few days when the smoke clears.
Maps and charts of solar and wind projects and BNEF forecast of renewables. All forecast are guaranteed to be wrong and no better than those from 10 years ago. This one in particular IMO because breakdown of the forecast for the US, India and China are very uncertain and those 3 have outsize impact on global mix.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019-can-renewable-energy-power-the-world/
The farmed Norwegian steelhead available at Costco is excellent. I need to try the AQB product. Have you tried that yet. My fav is still the King.
Farmed King Salmon gets rave reviews.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-13/farmed-ora-king-salmon-is-the-wagyu-beef-of-the-seafood-world
Interesting religious perspective from Scripps allergist according to Feuerstein. I wonder why he is an allergist since deaths from allergies are so rare, LOL.
>>>>>>>
Dr. John Kelso, an allergist at the Scripps Clinic in San Diego, said the frequency of severe or fatal allergic reactions to accidental peanut exposure in the real world are already very rare. Therefore, he’s unconvinced that the benefit reported by Palforzia is clinically meaningful, particularly given the higher rate of epinephrine required during the clinical trial.
>>>>>>>>
NBR report on AIMT - yesterday's segment had an analyst estimate that pricing will be around $10K with a market of $1B+ per year. $10K seems steep and the $1B would work out to only 100K kids per year. That's really low relative to the estimated 1.5M kids with peanut allergy. Hope the pricing isn't that steep so more kids can be treated.
MYOK - Here is something that directly addresses the underlying cause of HCM instead of playing around with contractility. Elimination of cardiac fibrosis via CAR-T. Mouse studies.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1546-z
AIMT - first pass commentary on FDA brief. Don't know the group that wrote this.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1vQTh1pvt4Q7OA1aNiDPicgMkkBJWBUeq/view
TSLA - Musk reveals his "Spaceballs" cards for S and X roadmap after Taycan reveal. Prototype S with drive train set Laguna Seca lap record yesterday for 4 door sedan. The quietness is so eerie in the video. You do hear the tires when the car edges the bumps during some of the sharper turns. Porsche gave Musk a lot of headroom with the Taycan pricing.
https://techcrunch.com/2019/09/11/elon-musk-promises-to-take-tesla-model-s-to-plaid-with-new-powertrain/
HES - How long has he owned the shares and has he done this before? Not small in absolute terms but small relative to his holdings. It will be hard to tell if the significance if any is due to his view on the global oil demand or company specific.
ps wanted to sticky your post but don't see button for doing it.
GME - short squeeze is over as head winds build.
https://www.engadget.com/2019/09/11/gamestop-to-close-over-200-stores/
HAIR/VenusConcept - SEC proxy filing for shareholder approval of merger. Meeting scheduled for Oct 4th. Stock bouncing in anticipation of approval. Analogs will be Cutera CUTR and Inmode INMD. Inmode has proprietary system for simultaneous RF and liposuction. HAIR will have proprietary robotic hair harvesting/implanting system. IMO all the cosmetic RF stuff between the different companies are very similar.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409269/000119312519242173/d766229d424b3.htm
AIMT - Starting to move in anticipation. Agree with black box uncertainty. As to how big of a seller it is, IMO lots of parents will have their kids try under the supervision of allergist. I would have done that for my kids and I am sure they would want us to try when they were kids if that option existed then. Rather than live with the periodic episodes of panicking for an Epipen injection or an ER visit, and having to pack Epipen wherever they travel.
AAPL - expanding iWatch capabilities to monitor hearing and women's reproductive health in addition to heart rhythm monitoring.
https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2019/09/apple-continues-health-push-with-three-new-medical-studies/
Not sure why the southwest is left out of the study. Is it because the region has already broken through the cost barrier. IE LADWP recent solar/storage bid that replaces 3 gas peaker plants that need major repair work. It is happening already for places with the sunshine or wind.
China's impact on Ford seems like old news. IMO the company is too leveraged given their dependence on F150. China hates Navarro for speaking truth.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-10/chinese-state-run-paper-singles-out-navarro-for-trade-lies
Won't be surprised if Cahodes shorts and fund another "journalist" to find something to pick on in the results which is easily done with all dementia management meds.
Bloomberg's oil glut opinion. Prices should be collapsing if true. It's not.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-08/the-world-s-oil-glut-is-much-worse-than-it-looks
TSLA - Dahn group sets new benchmark for EV cell longevity. Figures 1, 2 and 27. Partial to the requirement for robotaxis application, ie having the battery pack last as long as the drivetrain. 1 million miles. Lab tests have been going on for 3 years now.
https://www.scribd.com/document/424878572/J-Electrochem-Soc-2019-Harlow-A3031-44
VW - public perception of EV's in Germany may be a factor with their unambitious ID3 EV volume projections.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-07/you-won-t-have-much-luck-selling-electric-cars-to-germans
Fast charging only at charging stations and not at home. Home charging is plenty fast enough at 240V done overnight.
Seems like a good first effort on the MEB platform and significantly improves on the range of the currently available eGolf which is priced the same but with lower EPA range of 125mi. WLTP cycle over estimates range relative to EPA by ~10-20%.
Projected production volume seems unambitious - LG bottleneck?
https://www.vw.com/models/e-golf/section/overview/
https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2018/10/powerful-and-scalable-the-new-id-battery-system.html
AIMT - peanut allergy treatment. How big in terms of numbers and value is the market for this treatment? Advisory committee meeting next Friday.
https://www.fda.gov/advisory-committees/blood-vaccines-and-other-biologics/allergenic-products-advisory-committee-september-13-2019-meeting-announcement-09132019-09132019#event-information
A lot of that is maintenance capital just to convert existing or promised reserves into revenues. It is not going to be easy for any of the majors to transition to renewables because of shareholders short/medium term expectations colliding with long term sustainability. (just look at Porsche new EV pricing) Orsted has shown the way out but they were small and nimble.
BP getting out of Alaska is an example that needs to repeated many times. The exit door is getting crowded as Aramco takes another crack at an IPO. These things are already acting like value traps.
India - infections killing leukemia patients.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-05/superbugs-deadlier-than-cancer-put-chemotherapy-into-question
TRXC - down 15% on secondary offering. $20M worth. IMO indication of continuing struggles with adoption. MDT will be getting in the ring with their robotics (yet to be revealed) late next year.
LIT/ALB/SQM - gapped up on trade meeting news. Not sure why that would have any impact on global E-transport adoption. It is happening whether US trades with China or not. ALB and SQM has found a bottom for now and will rebound to moving averages. Too early to tell whether this rebound is lasting.
Porsche Taycan - So the optioned out high end version is $241K or nearly the same as the new Tesla roadster founder's series promised for release late next year. I guess VLKAF wants to stay as far away as possible from competing with their own existing ICE line up. McLaren is around the same price range. IMO Porsche, bmw and daimler all facing the same conundrum.
Porsche Taycan - more detailed specs in Table 2 of following link.
https://insideevs.com/reviews/368691/2020-porsche-taycan-vs-tesla/
Porsche - Some Taycan specs discussed in article. Price range is $153-187K for the 2 versions to be released. Pre-release rumor pricing was $90K. Range looks like will be in the mid 200 miles. So it is priced significantly higher than the highest option Tesla S and lower than the new Tesla roadster (that one has supercar specs, actually faster). Not sure how well Taycan will do. Should definitely attract existing Porsche Panamera customers that were waiting for a Porsche branded EV. Supercharging to be installed at dealers.
https://jalopnik.com/the-750-hp-2020-porsche-taycan-turbo-s-is-a-stupidly-qu-1837865197
This and other recent articles parroting the BNP analysis. I think the theoretical 6-1 to 7-1 gain in energy to wheels efficiency is theoretical. For practical purposes, the ratio is more like between 4-1 and 5-1 depending on the vehicle weight and aerodynamics. The amount of energy carried in EV battery packs is 2 to 3 gallons of gasoline equivalent and you get the same range as ICE cars (speaking for Tesla's only for now, others makes are less efficient for now). That's the Carnot cycle inefficiency penalty as most energy is converted to heat. As batteries get better, we will see those ratios approach those described in the BNP report with EVs in the economy class. Seems, it is happening at a speed faster than most legacy companies are able to react.
https://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=150327008
Dominion Energy - EV School bus program to stabilise grid.
https://reneweconomy.com.au/us-utility-pushes-for-full-electric-bus-fleet-to-add-storage-to-grid-and-clean-air-81514/
AI hardware Hunger Games - June talks but complement to world AI conference that happened this week in Shanghai. First speaker had Freudian slip mistakenly referring to Tesla's chipset as being Apple's. Estimated chip set market is $40B currently.
Porsche - expanding car subscription. Their Taycan EV will be part of the available fleet. MotorTrend published good first impressions of first test drive. No specs released yet.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-08-29/porsche-s-3-100-a-month-subscriptions-spreading-to-more-cities
LADWP solar bid - Labor union (electrical workers) upset about the closure of 3 coastal gas peakers against contract approval. These union leaders are brain dead. There is a shortage of electricians precisely because of the rise of solar. There is a wait list in our area trying to get electrical work done.
https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2019-08-27/los-angeles-solar-energy-storage-cheap
True in the sense that valuations are typically low when a small premium is offered. I made a little money on HOGS and it was low valuation takeout.
Waymo - gaining enough confidence to share some edge cases for non-competitors (universities etc.) and also rider reviews. This initial set of reviews will serve as reference point for future comparison no doubt. 60% of reviewed rides in Phoenix area and remainder in SF area. Bay Area riders significantly more critical probably because it is a more difficult driving environment, narrower streets and more pedestrians/cyclists.
https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/26/20833215/waymo-self-driving-car-taxi-passenger-feedback-review