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>>Negotiations take place.
So what do you think RVNC has been doing in the last couple quarters? Aren't they not do that?
To protect??
>> I have been on the sidelines. Don’t really care too much about the cosmetic side.
So why do u start to post here now to lower the expectations all the sudden? Do you want to get in cheap? Be honest here.
Explain to me why payers would want patients to try a more expensive drug first?
Tempering expectations? LOL. Give me a break. When stock is trading at all time low? Where were you when RNVC was trading at $30s. That's when you should have come out. What a joke.
Just that what you said does not pass the smell test so I wanted more info. Fine if you don't want to provide more info.
Daxxify is the the lower cost and longer lasting alternative here. Fail-first policy usually force patients to try the less expensive drugs first, not the more expensive ones first (in this case, Botox will be more expensive).
RVNC on why payers will like it:
As toxins are the 12 most costly medical benefit drug category, payers are also motivated to find alternatives that offer both clinical value and that can lower the cost of therapy. Based on DAXXIFY's clinical performance, bile price and the dosing used in our clinical trial, there's an opportunity for meaningful savings to payers,, which we believe is why we've seen such strong commercial coverage at such an early stage in our launch.
Importantly, we've also made significant progress on the payer front, already securing 25 of the top 30 plans covering over 50% of commercial lives. This impressive achievement reflects not only the team's ability to execute, but also DAXXIFY's differentiated clinical profile and attractive economic profile for payers.
This contradicts my understanding as well Foley and management’s comments on adaptation rate. Mind to share which area you are in?
You do know RVNC has been running a training program for months, right? What is missing?
What do you mean by “you have to fail and try the other three”?
Analysts currently expect $10mm from CD this year and that’s what RVNC expects, but when you have a drug that is cheaper and last longer in CD market, 25 percent market share is pretty conservative.
And the current share price priced in a pretty distressed scenario I believe. So as long as things go a bit better than disastrous. Money will be made.
Remember we are not paying 3 billions market cap anymore. 500mm is the number. On a approved potential blockbuster, not hard to argue an investment case here
what do u mean by both ways?
mrwilson31, maybe u should tell us how up to speed you are with the toxin market..
I think you should at least listen to some webcasts and read up some filings. Some of your concerns have been addressed. It’s your money, do some work
I think the price is so cheap now as long as Daxxify somewhat works, it’s a bargain. Anything else is just upside. Unless Foley, management and some pretty well known injectors have been lying along, upside is there, but might take more time than many hoped.
No investment strategies fit all. Know your goal and your risk.
All works but Daxxify works better. That’s why we are investing here ;)
Some posters said cosmetic is the one harder to crack too. You can reason with those.
Payer should help the switching as Daxxify will be the lower cost alternative in CD.
At current share price, no upside is priced in anyways
In CD, I think they will take even more than 30 percent over time actually.
In cosmetic, it would be more difficult I agree, but if it ever gets to even 20 percent, we would be making an absolute killing. And remember it’s the best in class drug
It’s closed. From Foley Form 4, it states ‘ 1. The reporting person purchased shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering by the issuer that closed on March 6, 2024.’ Not sure why don’t issue a PR.
Yes, the 3rd tranche is $150mm but I assume they can adjust the size is both parties agree.
Daxxify will be better in both pricing as well as efficacy in CD.
Assume they capture 30 percent in couple years, which is probably on the conservative side, that’s about ~120mm sales with phenomenal margin.
Not bad for a company that’s current trading at 500mm market cap.
Irrational and/or forced selling last couple weeks. Make zero sense to me. The company has raised 100mm so it is fully funded through 2026. The company just telegraphed that they are closed to cleaning up the mess they created due to premium pricing and it will now concentrate its efforts on expanding sales. The company has pivoted from their priory marketing strategy. Coupons and allow injectors marketing which obviously would be DTC. The company has two potential non insignificant milestones coming. The company is now focusing on operating as lean as possible.
And the company is selling at pretty much all time low with TAM that is 10x the market cap.
Sell now makes no fundamental sense whatsoever to me but I think the same a lot higher too so what do I know.
If you believe DTC marketing will do wonder, you should be buying heavily now, as I think it will happen soon (this year).
IanFromSI, cash flow and eps are two different metrics.
Balance sheet concern is a bit over IMO.
They have 250mm cash on hand at year end, raised 100mm, so 350mm. If they access the 3rd trance, it would be 500mm.
Assuming sales of 280mm, margin of 75%, expenses of 315mm, they would burn around 105mm, add ~15mm for interest. 120mm. I.e. by year end 2024, they should still have 388mm
Then in 2025, assume they do around 365mm sales, that would burn ~75mm. So still ~310mm cash on hand.
In late 2026, they need to pay 100mm back to Athyrium. Leave them around 210mm (assume cash flow neutral still in 2026). Even if they decided against drawing the 3rd trance, they would still have 60mm cash on hand left.
The good news in 2027, RVNC should be generating pretty solid cash flow so refinancing the convertible wouldn't be a concern.
Assuming 30% growth rate, by 2027, they should be generate ~100mm of FCF assuming sales of 600mm vs 365mm cost. After that, the FCF will grow rapidly. Of course, that's assuming Daxxify continue to take market share.
Anything close to 400mm would still be more than decent. We are talking about 30 percent growth company trading at around 2x sales with close to 80 percent gross margin.
Hard to find better risk reward than this.
450mm sales 2025 would be quite bullish. That is 50 percent growth. And with that, their cash burn will no longer be a concern. And 450mm is only tiny portion of the TAM
Be patience. Upside will be huge.
The 100mm raise was supposed to ease the debt hangover concern and somehow the market hammers this name to below 5 after the concern is eased,
Agree, that's what created the opportunity here.
If everything went well, we are probably talking about $50 share price here.
And now, if sales actually accelerate (it should as seems most agree Daxxify is the best in class product), we will be tons of upside.
If they continue to flop on their execution, someone will take them over for a song.
Sales would be around ~300mm this year. Not too bad for a company with EV of ~750mm.
No one is paying for growth here.
Not a bad thing to cut some fat. They are also hiring on area that need additional head-count
Again, they just raised 100mm at $6.25, Barclays isn’t a small outfit. They wouldn’t get their clients into the raise if Revance was in trouble.
Multiple analysts have confirmed the product is well liked
Foley said they will do DTC once Daxxify is rolled out to more injectors as doing so now won’t be as efficient.
Make sense to me, no?
Hard to say, but one thing for sure, the market cap is less than 2x sales. If they can execute, the upside would be enormous.
the worst case here is someone buy this out for a song if Foley keep failing their execution
I guess the re-launching is happening.
Quarter end get me out sales + some hedging going on with the 150mm loan draw would be my guess.
Things should settle shortly. Continue to believe the risk reward here is insanely good.
They are starting to use more KOLs and celebrities to push directly to customers, good sign.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C4jXj9tvLj6/?igsh=aGE2djBmanpxZGYx
Don’t try to over analyze this.
You would expect people buying up 100mm to do their research, don’t you?
I am still bullish despite all these trading noises
They just sold 100mm stocks at $6.25, CEO bought 200k worth at $6.98. Q2 will be the quarter that they will start selling without the burden created by premium pricing failure. Yet stock is selling at all time low. Foley needs 40% up move just to break even on his recent buy. Secondary buyers need ~30%.
Why would they quit themselves? The job market isn’t the best now
I thought we would trade better after the secondary.
It won’t be just 50 percent higher
And I would argue current price priced in a pretty dire situation