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All good! And glad you could scoop some of those up. If it makes you feel any better, my first buy into PGAS (on 7/6) was for .075/sh. Thankfully that was only a 500 share provisional buy and I have averaged down significantly since then.
I've had a hard time getting anything to fill sub-.03 over the last few days. Seems wild to me that this seems to have such strong support around .028-.029 and can't same to break and .032.033. Hope patience pays here!
IMO there's some debt being converted still -- for instance, look at the 1.39 mil shares at 10:23 and some of the smaller trades (under 50k shares) recorded at 5/6 decimal point prices.
Not concerning to me if we continue to see mass/bulk buying, but just my honest assessment.
Almost 20 mil volume by 10AM. Gonna be an interesting day!
Thanks for your tips, and for helping demonstrate the difference between realistic optimism and relentless optimism. Good luck tomorrow.
Right back at you, my friend.
You bet, thanks for reading it. On dilution being done, I honestly don’t know and this board reflects a great diversity of opinions on that topic — for dilution to be “done,” there would’ve been over a billion shares converted absent any repayment to lenders or repurchase of notes. Perhaps the right question is whether dilution is now under control. Answer there is still very eye of the beholder.
On reducing the A/S, I suspect that it’s permissible but doubt it would happen. As a shareholder, I wouldn’t want to see it happen, either. Reckless dilution is bad, but having space in the A/S is a safety valve for the company in future. There also needs to be room for conversion to common of preferred shares held by mgmt; my bet there is that mgmt has a long-term view on the pref and will convert judiciously, but again only time will tell!
Honestly I hope not — that would mean they lost out on the opportunity to buy some 003s and low 004s.
The most optimistic theory is that they tried to do as much repurchasing as possible during the month of July, and have the spigot wide open down the home stretch. As noted elsewhere, lots of ifs in this scenario and we don’t know how many new shares hit since 7/1.
Whatever the ultimate intentions of BBRW mgmt, they released a PR on the last day of the month in June (the 6/30 repurchase authorization announcement). Don’t be surprised if they practice similar timing again.
Presumably Sam Berry (if he's not full of it) would realize that this email has a good chance of becoming public. Most companies do not announce anything during a buyback past the authorization (which is a required disclosure) so as to not have such announcement boost the stock price, so that they can buy as low as possible. One has to think that disclosing (even in an email) would signal that the buyback is complete, or close to it. I spoke to Jef Lewis on the phone a week ago and asked him if he could provide a buyback update, and he (politely) declined. If his CFO is putting it in writing (again, even in an email) a week later, it signals a shift to me.
At risk of being a hard*ss, now that this information is "out there," BBRW should file an 8-k (which can be as simple as attaching a press release to a completed form 8-k, more or less, and asserting to the SEC that it is accurate) to disclose buyback status and any other pertinent updates.
I saw someone else post that they are no longer working with that Dave Donlin (sp?) guy who did the puff video about BBRW. I know nothing about him firsthand, but understand that he had the reputation of being associated with pump n' dumps and whatnot, so one thought is that BBRW ended the relationship with him to seem more legitimate. I know when I started diligencing this company, the salesy nature of those PRs were the biggest caution sign (not that it stopped me).
If these guys are trying to go legit and really have QB or even QX up-listing aspirations, they should take their game to the next level regarding disclosures and transparency. If they truly are spending (or have spent) $1.5m on a share buyback, demonstrating steps toward good governance can have a low/no cost multiplier effect on that investment. Soapbox dismounted.
TGI(almost)F, ladies and gentlemen -- looks like a interesting day in the making!
Cool, thank you.
LionCub1, just curious, who is the other recipient (the +1) on that email? Was it someone else at BrewBilt? Thanks for sharing this.
In the same PR where BBRW that referenced the QX, they referenced the 75% of O/S goal for the buyback. Given that they have moved away from that latter claim, I interpret the QX vs QB as some combination of plans change and potential sloppiness with terminology in the PR. Of course, this assumes that Sam Berry is telling the truth in his email, and where you stand on that is an individual judgment call.
Perhaps it was realistic (in the company's view) to meet QX listing requirements when they said it, but QB just seems much more appropriate for a company at BBRW's stage of life. Regardless I'm more focused for now on the next O/S update and timely release of financials.
15 mil share buy posted at 3:12, however anyone wants to interpret that.
The uplisting comment came from a 6/11 PR, link below.
In my opinion, moving up the the QX does not seem to be happening in the near term. Also worth noting that this 6/11 PR references repurchasing 75% or the float whereas the 6/30 PR only references the dollar amount, $1.5M, with no percentage.
One thing I think is GREAT about the 6/11 PR: they name two new customer locations and Penn Valley and Elk Grove, CA. Those are also the locations of Bull Mastiff and Hungry Pecker, respectively, two new customers whose receipt of BrewBilt equipment has been on social media in the past week. They also reference a customer in Lake Tahoe, CA; Alibi, of the recent post of the 20bbl rig in process, appears to have locations in Incline Village and North Lake Tahoe, NV, and Truckee, CA, so unclear if that one is a match.
Nonetheless, the reason I said great is that the Penn and Elk deliveries demonstrate the company living up to statements that it has made publicly. I only worry that, if those California installations weren’t completed until July (unclear, but that’s when we saw the pics), will that hinder Q2 revenue recognition.
https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2020/06/11/2046877/0/en/BrewBilt-Completes-5-New-Breweries-With-New-Revenues-on-Horizon.html
Good points. If you are right about the O/S and Q2 rev is the high end of my estimate (couple mil), we actually could see sustained high single digits IMO.
I'm pretty bullish about BBRW as my posts probably make clear. But .25 average is a long way's away here unless these guys were to announce something both gigantic and verifiable (really gigantic). Q2 earnings will (I estimate) show a mil or two in revenue, which would be great relative to past years and given covid, but people will just say "that's not $25M" and won't factor in any work in progress, leading to a price drop (that's what happened after Q1 earnings, although that revenue was really tiny in fairness). So best bet, leading up to or following Q3 earnings, share price could conceivably be in consistent double digits.
Not trying to rain on the parade, just think it's best for BBRW and all of us who own shares if we measure against realistic goals.
Interesting, good points. Seems very plausible. Others can better weigh in regarding the question raised on legality, but it seems to me that would be easily solved by BBRW communicating their objectives to their chosen MM(s), wiring the funds, and getting out of the way. What you described seems to be a pretty standard playbook.
#4 is where we will each have to make a major decision, absent other events before the end of the week. I had a similar thought to you; notional rough math:
- trading days in July = 21
- ~12 days with ~10m/day avg shares repurchased = 120m shares
= ~9 days with ~20m/day avg shares repurchased = 180m shares
== 300m shares repurchased
I haven't reconciled this against trading data or volume-weighted avg. price by day, but you get the idea. Two additional wild cards:
1) How many new shares hit the O/S? More or less than any that were repurchased?
2) How will the market react? I can see a world where ANY increase over 509m leads to people dumping. That would be silly to me but still something to plan for/trade off of.
Unless the price were to spike way back up later this week, I plan to hold through the next O/S update and hope for a combination of good news/intelligent reaction.
flaflyersfan, respectfully, I think you are off here. Form-T trades are executed during normal trading hours (there is no after hours for OTC) but (generally) reported after close, or sometimes right at the beginning of trading. I agree that the intent of the mechanism is to not disrupt normal trading. They can be prearranged and yes, that arrangement would involve agreeing upon the price(s). Not sure how this impacts my overall point though.
If it's any olive branch, I'm a Bruins fan, but that first shift Giroux has against the Pens in the playoffs (I think it was Game 3 conf semis, where he ran over Crosby then scored a "statement" goal) was one of the more fun hockey moments I can remember watching live.
Good to know, thanks.
Is there a way to see their recs for free or do you need to have an account with TD?
On most matters I will say the same thing. This trade was listed under the "buy" column on ihub trade data, so I feel confident about it, or else I am wasting my monthly subscription for this data!
20.1M share purchase reported at 4:02. It's strange that (per ADVFN data) there were two immaterial trades today labeled form T, but this big one just says avg.
Regardless, somebody, for some purpose, purchased ~$97 grand of BBRW stock today, which is about 20% of today's volume in terms of $ value.
That might've been my comment. Was trying to point out the separate (but not mutually exclusive) phenomenon of MMs becoming overextended due to having many orders to fill as price rises rapidly, then having incentive to tamp down PPS. Regardless, your point is a fair one and it seems MMs are going to continue to short and scalp as much as they can here.
Question for those who have been watching this stock longer. The float is relatively low, but (per otcmarkets.com) no info on restricted/unrestricted/held at DTC. The float # is also from April, whereas the O/S and A/S were updated 7/21.
How much trust do folks have in the 22.9 mil float?
And NITE seemingly flipping the same 2M shares at .0052...or maybe I'm seeing things
2M share block sold at .005
If anyone involved in running the company wanted it to go down to 001, they wouldn’t have announced new customers/deliveries over the past week. It could certainly drop further but 001 would shock me since the last low was .0033. IMO, the announcements were designed to stimulate volume; although counter-productive to buyback goals in the short term (temporary higher price) it ensured that there’s still enough volume to execute the buyback, since the company doing the repurchasing (or anyone acting on its behalf) can only purchase 25% of volume on a given day.
What are your thoughts on the timeline? I had understood that this fall was the goal to open the facility. Is that feasible if they’re just now securing the land?
Green day today would be huge. Lots of talk about the pattern that BBRW price has established (2-3 day run then dip back down). Green today would break that pattern and reinsert some unpredictability and make it harder for flippers.
Side note: I would love to see BBRW announce an earnings release date, even schedule a conf call (companies can do those without taking questions, still a nice show of confidence). Assuming the PRs are legit and sales really are coming in, the company is on the cusp of the next phase. BBRW should seriously consider appointing one or more independent director, as management accountability (and the appearance thereof) are only going to become more important in this next phase.
Thanks, makes sense.
This continues to be confusing in the short term, but promising in the long term if you fundamentally believe the statements/intentions of BBRW management, as I do. I too suspect that today's t-trade was part of the buyback.
Just for rough math, if BBRW deployed the full $1.5M at a .0065/sh average, they would repurchase 23m0 mil shares. Given where this stock has traded during July, since the buyback authorization was announced, .0065 seems very achievable, if not optimal.
One wild card (among many others): Has the company repaid any of the outstanding notes, or repurchased them, to prevent debt from converting to shares in the first place? It seems likely that certain noteholders would prefer to avoid the hassle, risk and expense of converting debt to shares, then selling those shares, so would hang on until the borrower has cash on hand to repay directly. If so, 230 mil shares (or any other ballpark #) becomes a much more meaningful percentage of the O/S. If you believe the PRs, then it is likely they had cash on hand from Q2 purchases; even if not yet recognizable as revenue, they can spend it.
If I knew everything, I wouldn't have purchased some shares above .02, but just one interpretation as someone who has found the company to be fundamentally credible and is optimistic about their business prospects.
Pretty high volume too.
What's your target price if this thing takes off?
7.1 million share t-trade posted, .00688 average.
It’s more that I’m choosing to see the silver lining. Like, if they’re going to need to take on debt with crummy terms (cost of doing business for most OTC cos) then I at least appreciate the transparency. But you’re right to point out that some of the terms stink. Gotta believe they really get it together in the next 180 days, or will have the right opportunity to exit the stock before then.
Another 8-k released today announcing a new note. Although this new debt (couple hundred grand by my count) is by definition convertible and could be dilutive in the long run, I am pleased that the company is filing an 8-k for each new note. The whole play for this company is based on their plan to build out their US office, leverage recent IP acquisitions, etc. -- various things that require capital. Pleased to see them trying to do things the right way as they access sources of cash.
People have made the point about BBRW wanting to tank PPS to maximize effectiveness of the share buyback, and I understand the logic. But if I'm BBRW mgmt, yes I want to "reward" shareholders (including BBRW mgmt, which has received significant compensation in common stock), but there's also a large element of demonstrating good faith and follow through. I continue to believe that the buyback may have commenced anytime after the PR announcing the authorization, and I suspect that a lot of the large block buys that we saw before this current run were part of the buyback. Even at a .0065 average, $1.5M would result in repurchase/retirement of 230 million shares. If BBRW accomplishes that (or something similar), it will reinforce to me that: 1) These guys understand the alignment with and need to take care of outside shareholders; and 2) Business is good enough to support this initiative, and that suggests good things in the future.
That is great to see. Although I'm sure this order has factored into the revenue projections the company has released, pretty sure this is the first time we've heard of an order to Alibi Brewing or any customer in Nevada (correct me if I'm wrong). They just posted the same thing to Instagram for the first time.
Assuming that Alibi Brewing is connected with Alibi Ale Works (seems likely, both are on Lake Tahoe), this is exactly the kind of customer that BBRW wants during times like these. Alibi already sells canned beer, very important if/when things are totally shut down in a given market. They also appear to have an affiliation with (perhaps common ownership but haven't researched enough to confirm) a couple of public houses. Obviously those setups are dicey in the time of covid, but at least in my neck of the woods, people are flocking back to any place where you can drink outdoors at a table as soon as perceived safe to do so. Just seems like good proof of concept that, although certain craft brewers will struggle/close/never get off ground, others will adapt and thrive.
Also just interesting to think about all the social media releases the company is doing relative to where they are in any buyback. The first PR about the buyback referenced 75% of the float, the second one quoted $1.5M but no percentage. My strong suspicion is that the buyback has been occurring at a variety of price point under a cent, which has resulted in a lot of the buying support we've seen in the face of much flipping and presumed further dilution (if so, by noteholders, IMO). No guarantee that's what's happening but I continue to like the prospects for this stock and company.
I bailed too. Second time taking a smaller profit with ABML, but can't complain about profits.
Absent real details about this partnership with Just Business, seems like we're just gonna bop around at .121-122 at best, so time to sell. I could be way wrong at this skyrockets after lunch. But for now, will just keep an eye on to re-enter around .105, if that opportunity comes.
Agree with you that there could be some unconverted notes out there. But those do not to the MMs any good at the current PPS. A share converted at .006 is still more costly than a share at .0048, which could be the sale the MM is trying to cover.
Can't speak for others, but when I refer to MMs being upside down, it refers to being in a position where they owe shares to other parties, as opposed to being actively short. BBRW stock ran from the 003s (last week) to around .011 (yesterday). Along the way, MMs get calls from retail brokers and they fill the orders because they want to continue to get business. Usually, when a stock isn't climbing rapidly, that's not a problem. But during a rapid price climb, CDEL and whoever else ends up selling more shares than they have, if the price has continued to rise it exacerbates the problem, making it even more expensive for the MM to buy the shares they owe someone to settle. Unless that MM/a group of MMs can walk down the price through actions like large block orders, narrowing/widening the ask/bid spread artificially, etc. All stuff that has the goal of cooling off investors' interest, helping the PPS to drop, and making it easier to settle positions with less of/no loss, whether those shares are from shaking out retail or purchased directly from noteholders.
I don't know how truly widespread this type of thing is and none of us is sure what is happening/will happen with BBRW. My take is that there is some MM tamping down of the price happening, plus the natural forces of investor waning slightly given that we haven't had any PRs/IG posts, several days until O/S update, a couple weeks until earnings (if filed timely), etc.
One side note, I've heard it repeated here that BBRW can't engage in the buyback while any dilution is occuring. Besides an explanation of why lenders might not like that, I'm not convinced that this is a legit rule as opposed to an ihub old wives' tale. Buying back shares during a period when new shares are issued (or converted) seems to have a lot of precedent in public companies, so not sure if it's an OTC req or if there's a FINRA reg or something that someone can post.
flaflyersfan, to your question about BBRW persuading people to sell them back shares, I really don't see how that would be a problem. A company doing a buyback is capped at purchasing 25% of the volume on any day. Even with a ton of people holding BBRW for the long haul (like myself), there are plenty of people like yourself, who are less optimistic, or traders who purchased at a variety of price points and are looking to take profits or cut losses, depending on the circumstances. That translates into enough sellers in the open market for BBRW to execute a buyback, if it so desires.