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Yes, it came on the heels of his speaking to using TG rich lipoproteins as being a significant risk factor (Copenhagen City Health Study).
He's aware. Just has his preferences and relationships/networks to balance politically I'm sure when he says something publicly.
Could be or other uses than just sales people.
- (Prepaid) deposits by AMRN to an API supplier = credit AMRN's cash account/debit prepaid expenses: could be to expand capacity by upgrading some production lines with certain API suppliers (would show as a liability for the API supplier until delivery met).
New amendments or an addendum to annual supply agreement as higher tonnage thresholds get hit if they go over what's already in their annual schedule. You have to do this many months in advance to keep ahead of the pulls especially as the rate accelerates. Planning for first half of 2020 possibly into Sept, should have already begun. You don't wait for Q1 2020 to figure out Q2. That's way too late.
- Need to remember that credit insurance (or loan covenant) requirements for their smaller API suppliers could keep them restricted to booking sales within Net 90 days...if they go out to 120 days and depending on the delivery terms, ie FOB point, then title & risk of loss into a following quarter means the supplier can't recognize revenue in that quarter (again, depending on INCOTERMS).
- (Prepaid) Deposits to marketing agencies to create new ad campaigns. Contracts with broadcasters. Etc.
Also, I know that you vigilantly follow a lot of pharmaceuticals and DS from the different ones you take and that it sounds like you've kept on top of "cross-contamination" issues and recalls. However, from one of your earlier posts, I would not characterize DHA in an AMRN run of EPA-EE as "cross-contamination." It's a bit of an overly broad usage of the term. The FDA tends to mostly focus on, are consumers being harmed. So, from a cross-contamination perspective, I tend to view it as for example, pathogens (microbials), foreign materials, harmful by-products from reactions in the refining process that are allowed to accumulate unchecked.
DHA beyond say 5%, I would think of it more as being "out-of-spec," an "exception" or "non-conforming" API. It's something to be worked out directly between AMRN and say, BASF. If their supplier didn't catch the out-of-spec material first and shipped it out, then it would be flagged and sent back to be re-worked, at the supplier's expense.
A true cross-contamination issue, say like industrial lubricant leaked from a pipe fitting would likely be destroyed as not fit for human consumption.
A supplier would clean before different campaigns anyway - it would be in their cGMP.
Yes, it would be!
2 weeks ago I asked E*trade to change my account status from Level 1 to Level 3 because I wanted to try & learn vertical spreads as it seems suited to when you don't have the ability to "crap" large share blocks, but want defined "risk." Count me in. For this part of the story at least. I think with TDA you can do vertical spreads on Level 2 - no margin; but, at any rate Level 3 came with a designation of "margin" to my trading account.
This morning I wake up and I have a text alert from 2AM saying I have a margin call. ?? I turned on my computer and saw the amount of the margin was double the amount from the 2AM text alert! Ok, I was really awake then without even an oz of SBUX juice.
Yesterday I sold some OTM AMRN covered calls at $26. That was my only change in that account from yesterday, but how could this have triggered such a margin call - it didn't make sense and I always triple-check before I enter an order?! (not that that means I still can't screw the pooch on an order entry)
I called E*Trade and they said my account was showing as a Level 1 cash account and that the journal entry hadn't posted to update it to a Level 3. They said it was an error in their system that had flagged my account because of that discrepancy between the two Levels and that they would put an expedited request for an "urgent" fix. The margin desk broker said he'd call me back later this morning to confirm once the fix had been made.
Does this happen with the major brokerages sometimes? Its my first margin rodeo, and this morning felt like getting slammed into the metal gate while being pinned to the pen when I didn't even sidle up for a ride.
Yes, Zu - I see it that way too - perhaps what I came away from the NLA in Portland most of all - is that the lipid docs seem to think you need to up prescribe statins to their max before going to secondary therapies. It's like the lipidologists attribute the "residual risk" to not maxing out the statin dose. Hardly any of them are doing that first according to the panelists.
Dr. Peter H. Jones was asked point blank whether he saw a difference between EPA & DHA and he said "NO" adding "not a believer in big difference between EPA & DHA." Remember he's the NLA's "Chief Science Officer" tasked with monitoring and commenting on new developments. If this is the lipidologists' visionary (early adopters), then I don't want to see their pragmatists (mainstream doctors, go along to get along). Laggards will always be (skeptics). So, if AMRN isn't out working the street, then nobody else will for them & lipid doctors will default to statin strategizing.
I think this practice mentality is why JL calls them "statinistas."
EVAPORATE will give AMRN an excuse to sponsor more events in 2020 energized with more "new" CT data (also, new collateral to put into their pitchbook). And that's absolutely right - reps are the ones who set up all these educational events. It's not the NLA or the ACC or the AHA or the ACE or the you name it college of whatever internal medicine specialty setting these symposiums up, meeting with practice groups, etc. It's AMRN's reps - out pounding the pavement.
Good book for those still working & interested is "Crossing the Chasm" by Geoffrey Moore.
Kiwi- yep! With friends at the Taphouse Grill in downtown. But I’m keeping my “yap” shut this time.
I don’t call today, steady upside? Volume was 10x avg.
Yes, I agree and think short covering today tells the tale. A pre-Q2 conference call guidance update, only a few weeks in advance of it? Well, ooooookay. That's good coordination by management and others for maximum impact.
In my post 6/13 #196664 already thought these revenue levels likely for 2019 ($400-$430m).
I still think they need to raise capital for what they will be attempting since obviously as others have pointed out, it's becoming clearer that no unofficial offers in price range BB wants for either the company or their shares.
1) more inventory for 2020 + supplier tiered pricing with expansion schemes going into effect
2) ads
3) more sales people.
Debt or equity is my question. I'm leaning toward they go for another secondary like the last one back on Nov 26th.
FFS - I like your Ducks Unlimited analogy.
Definitely like the action today - hope it sticks!!
<sorry> STS. Too thrilled. This just upped the ante on how big of a party weekend its going to be out here. Just got even HUGER.
Now to remember to drink lots of water...
Oh right, and in other news, AMRN was up today.
Woohoo! England next. USA USA USA!
Hell yea-uh!
Oh yeah. Comcast won't stream it online in Seattle because Fox is broadcasting the game. But, big screen in the employee break room is giving peeps their fix.
All my friends are crazy about soccer - I watch when its a big game and there's beer/wine involved. LOL! Soccer is huge here - the Seattle Sounders are well loved. Everyone stands for the full 90 in the Clink.
I wanna see FR go down!
GO USA! Megan Rapinoe is bending it like gold today. 1-0 so far.
Probably too controversial to work her into a DTC for V. LOL!
Oh please, Onerag. I thought your post was funny! Ihub is like a puppy pile of people.
I think AMRN is being smart about following in the footsteps of Japan on EPA. De-risking the innovative therapy part a smidge, but trading it in for more developmental certainty. It's like how with "the Matrix" Hollywood just copied "Ghost in the Shell." I used to watch some Japanese anime in my 20's with friends, but we never took up manga. One of my fave anime films was Princess Mononoke. not Pikachu
Thanks JL. MRC, I'm pretty sure I recall that "about" 8x from Japan linkages. So, yes, if a person wanted to discount everything out of Japan then that could certainly be a basis for their argument construction.
The decades old roots leading up to the most recent clinical trial inquiries of the past 5 years in Japan would be the Chiba Field Study -- Hisayama Study -- JELIS. As an illustration, in 1992 Japan was already looking at EPA in terms of anti-thrombotic effects and publishing their findings in Rinsho Iyaku (J Clin Ther Med); see: Goto Y and Kumagai A.
Perhaps, you think it too pat an answer my half-Asian roots as to why I would put faith in unblinded Japanese trials? Here's why. The Japanese, albeit generally speaking, are meticulous and fastidious with detail. It's not mere pedantry, although to Americans it often comes off as such. It's more for the love of the process as an end unto itself - like the Golden Ratio unfolding before their eyes. I think of them as the Germans of Asia. Or maybe it's Germans are the Japanese of Europe. Much like Germany, if I were to pull from Jungian theory, I'd say both nations display a cultural predilection toward ISTJ tendencies. How have I seen this in everyday life? Kindergartners ride the subway by themselves safely. I haven't seen any other country where people line up straight while waiting for trains on the platform - not even Germans do this. Cochrane meta-analysis don't account for these differences in our cultural maps when they strike trials from their record. So, if a Japanese patient is given a pill with instructions they will follow it faithfully for the concomitant details to be recorded by their clinician. (Now, Americans - we are a rowdy bunch, more like ESTJs).
So, yes Calder is good and his model of lipid rafts and EPA/DHA enhancing fluidity in the lipid bilayer as well as free floating outside/inside the bi-layer. These models have been extended by Olefsky in California on functioning GPR120s and dysfunctioning R270Hs effects.
Anyway, Calder was out in Seattle last year and JL & I posted here about his bio-availability research last fall (Calder works a bit with GSK (feeds into their R&D for O-3 products) and that area of the UK is a knowledge cluster for O-3s). o3 bio-avail does it matter
So, really Calder systematic reviews + trials with GSK sponsorship is a little analogous to Japanese systematic reviews + trials Amarin has sponsored. It's the pharma business, after all right? But, I like Amarin's reviews + trials on the subject of EPA. Seeing is believing and I'll do an astronomy post soon to that end. Writing about it helps me retain fluidity on my own lipid raft of understanding.
I know - there's a real gap between the Eastern and Western hemispheres, isn't there? LOL. A little more cross-pollination might be in order. Oh wait, I'm a by-product of that myself...maybe we don't want to wish anymore of that on the world! ;-P
MRC, I quickly scanned the Calder link - Ah OK, so its another systematic review that mostly quotes Western sources. They might be missing what's been coming out of Japan for the last 5+ years.
Here's another one with an eye toward Evaporate that showed DHA/AA ratio didn't work out to reduce MACE:
Nishizaki Y 2014, Am J of Cardiology, compare EPA to DHA
Thanks MRC - that's why I didn't break out bio-markers; it's just how I (admittedly a shorthand) think of it. I haven't read that study, but I respect Phil Calder and will take a look at it. I'm not proficient like Tasty or AVI at mud wrestling CTs. I'm quite the cave-girl there in fact.
What do you think of this one with an eye toward Evaporate?
Nosaka trial
I realize it's P value is .02 so I'm not sure how that tightens the numerical frame around the ARR of 11.0% specifically. But, seems good, yes?
Sure. Here's another way to look at it.
From Tony Bimbo's estimates of oil proportions comprising global marine oil in 2015 (%s can change depending on yearly quota & landings).
Fish body oils 53.29%
Anchovy oil 31.13%
Menhaden oil 8.15%
Capelin oil 8.15%
Herring oil 1.92%
Other 1.23% (fish liver oils .68%, squid oil .14%, krill .40%, shark oil .01%)
Single cell oils aren't factored into the above, because they haven't been a factor yet (years 2020-2030 should finally see expansion of this source into feed because some feed and farmers like the alt-source input story just like Beyond Meat or Impossible Foods (as opposed to old school FIFO- fish in, fish out), but an open question still how much & how successful)
Photo bio-reactors: (depends on each column/reactor set-up, but his assumptions seem reasonable enough)
If you assume these conditions:
Production: 2000 hours/year
Turnaround: 72 hours = 28 batches per year
50% lipid in the biomass
200 grams dry biomass per liter (1.7 lbs/gallon)
100 grams of oil per liter (.85 lbs per gallon)
---
Volume 100 cubic meters = 100,000 liters
= 280 mt of oil/year
Open ponds:
Area: 14 acres
= 280 mt oil /yr
Sstyles, take a look at my krill post #150808 from Oct 2018.
It's probably fine if you're thinking of it as a momentum play. I'd get out before the hype bubble pops.
My thoughts:
- Capre will show some efficacy
- greater bio-availability of PL form will be more than offset by DHA and other fatty acids diluting the mix
- seems EPA is about 8x better than DHA for improving certain biomarkers of inflammation
- Capre will be hard-pressed to achieve blockbuster status because of limited volume of krill and their PL form of EPA's effects masked by other bioactive ingredients in mix.
- AMRN because of first mover advantage, if their sales warranted it some many years down the line, could form a supply consortium and utilize the EPA in krill (convert from PL to EE form).
EE form works from a production standpoint b/c of 1) consistency 2) through-put and 3) cost [b/c not taking it back to a rTG form]
Calanus finmarchicus (copepods out of Norway) for calanus oil has been much talked about this year especially making a go of it in the supplement world. It's a wax ester form (think whales or beeswax). See video: calanus oil
I think AMRN has a niche because of limited supply and production capability and that's why I haven't paid much attention to the generic lawsuits. I did read Vu's link to one of the cases - the judge accepted most of AMRN's claim constructions. I'd like to see as Zip suggests AMRN take it to trial, they'd likely win. But, most of these patent cases settle before trial.
It's a volume play as JT keeps saying over and over again. Not so much volume that anyone can enter + tricky to produce yet enough volume to be highly commercially successful.
Adam F. does this with a lot of his stories. The Vyleesi pre-menopausal drug just approved by the FDA - he said Monday afternoon the FDA shouldn’t have approved it and then pointed to management’s transgressions. Stat -Vyleesi. The stock predictably took a dive. I thought, “oh boy, bet he’s gonna write something like this on V day of FDA expansion approval and has the story already written.” I can’t remember which one, but he wrote a negative piece last Dec after the AHA Nov V negative article on another drug, too.
I realized then it’s his shtick and he’s sticking to it. He’s a bio-tech reporter who hates bio-techs. He reminds me of people who publicly hate on government and complain about it, but who work in government. It’s like biting the hand that feeds them.
I wondered that myself. Figured it was to reduce geographical risk in the interim.
From the Times of India on Nesher/Zydus & GL prdxn in Missouri-
timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/zydus-get-usfda-nod-to-market-omega-3-acid-ethyl-esters-capsules/articleshow/69799988.cms
North is cool - I get his position that the PPS captures need to know from moment-to-moment as well as his 1st person experience on V. I was just having fun since JL went to the Globe theatre, I tagged along.
Just having a Shakespeare in Love Monday. Yeah, King Lear should've trusted that's all that is gold doesn't glitter and may even be tarnished and ornery (his daughter Cordelia).
Sonnet 109 - lover is making an excuse and using travel as a prettified metaphor for why he has been distant. Still professes his love even though he realizes absence (no response on patent questions) could be interpreted as a lack of fidelity/love.
What a chuckle JL. OK, OK. How about Shakespeare Sonnet 109?
Not sensing a need to go full Riverside yet! But, it sure would be fun to start working in more obscure Shakespeare references when discussing EPA.
And in more Monday non-news, STAT is reporting that Vyleesi for pre-menopausal women has been approved by the FDA. What is this GoT nomenclature? A new path to patent prosperity for AMRN? Not just your Grandpa's battle-axe sharpener, anymore. New and improved Khaleesieco...puts a little fire in Grandma's belly, too!
I mean, could you make this stuff up?? LMAO. ...JMVHO.
1977 Triple Crown Winner's (Seattle Slew) grand-daughter a few years ago was treated successfully at UC Davis for laminitis by blocking an enzyme that allowed the stabilization of epoxide fatty acids (a step after AA, EPA or DHA) so they could help her to heal.
The professor who treated her just recently was awarded a $5 million seed grant by Open Philanthropy to continue R&D into soluble Epoxide Hydrolase Inhibitors (sEHI) to block the degradation of DHA epoxides called EDPs (which are 10X better at blocking pain, etc. than AA epoxides). When sEH degrades the epoxide fatty acid further into diols of DHA then bad things can happen in the retina, for example. Hence, the role for an effective and safe way to prevent that from happening. When fish are caught and rendered to oil, logically, they can also have different levels of the epoxide fatty acids as well, not just the precursors.
CYP-450 branch of the AA cascade is analgesic, anti-inflammatory & anti-hypertensive. To that end, they'd be looking to either a) increase production of fatty acid epoxides or b) block their degradation by sEH. Choice B is "easier" to target. Also, sEH is just one pathway of several that could metabolize the fatty acid epoxides, but it seems promising.
AA -- [CYP2C, 2J] --> EETs -- [sEH] --> DHETs
DHA -- [CYP2C, 2J] --> EDPs -- [sEH] --> diDHPAs
EPA -- [CPY2C, 2J] --> EEQ -- [sEH] --> diHETEs
www.sacbee.com/news/local/health-and-medicine/article229700594.html
https://health.ucdavis.edu/publish/news/cppn/13855
So, there could be other distant horizon alternatives to using more DHA from a pharmacological perspective. One theory seems to be that a single axis of biochemistry called the mitochondrial-ROS-ER stress axis is stabilized by EpFAs & that they address many different pathologies. I'm still learning about all these theories.
STS - That's been my point. The DHA by-products from pharma runs will have a lot more cost into them. As an example, if a supplier can only produce 100 mt of API per year then they need to make choices as to what product mix will give the best ROI.
A fictional illustration:
2019
60 mt GL
40 mt VascEPA
2018
70 mt GL
30 mt VascEPA
If they can sell a mixed formula with the DHA still in it like in GL they would balance that against AMRN's API demand forecasts rather than have to sit on DHA inventory. An API supplier will have to expand & sell more DHA into potentially money losing or at least lower margin channels for baby food/sports supplement/other markets. It requires time and effort to develop or expand for the by-products as well as the targeted product - or more likely, give some of the margin in the by-products to a broker.
"Adding capacity" doesn't have to mean plant upgrades exclusively. I've taken it to mean as an example allocating more plant time to AMR101 campaigns and less to GL campaigns. And really a lot of unknowns for even a ChemE in the field to speculate on plant upgrade costs & time. Going from what set-up in a current plant configuration, to what?
It seems a lot of posters interpret API purchases primarily through the lens of sales growth expansion, but that's different than how AMRN characterizes it in their most recent 10-Q. The language used is weighted to a risk-averse stance which is typical of commercial procurement practices. AMRN wants to be sure to have enough supply on-hand to protect from supply shocks; that's especially important when you are a one product in the pipeline company.
From the May 2019 10-Q, pg 26:
Commercial and Clinical Supply
We manage the manufacturing and supply of Vascepa internally and have done so since we began clinical development of Vascepa prior to the drug’s marketing approval by FDA in 2012. We rely on contract manufacturers in each step of our commercial and clinical product supply chain. These steps include active pharmaceutical ingredient, or API, manufacturing, encapsulation of the API, product packaging and supply-related logistics. Our approach to product supply procurement is designed to mitigate risk of supply interruption and maintain an environment of cost competition through diversification of
contract manufacturers at each stage of the supply chain and lack of reliance on any single supplier. We have multiple FDA-approved international API suppliers, encapsulators and packagers to support the Vascepa commercial franchise. The amount of supply we seek to purchase in future periods will depend on the level of growth of Vascepa revenues and minimum purchase commitments with certain suppliers. While our current supply chain is scalable, we continue efforts to expand, diversify and further enhance it.
Cal, here's a story out today in Undercurrent News on Cuna Del Mar and Robert Orr the CEO who I mentioned in a post yesterday. He was part of an API supply consortium to AMRN in 2012 (2012 AMRN supplier PR) and he was one of GoED's 12 founding members.
Cuna Del Mar’s investments advancing ‘farm of the future’
By Jason Smith June 19, 2019 16:33 BST
Its target may still be decades off but impact investor Cuna del Mar is unwaveringly focused on advancing its vision of the future of aquaculture: remotely monitored offshore submersible platforms for growing warm water finfish species, some of which are hardly farmed now.
"We’re really seeing it as a new evolution both in the technology from the hatchery level, from the farm systems level, from the species development level, so we’re making investments in this kind of more impact investment way," Robert Orr, the CEO of Cuna del Mar told Undercurrent News.
The Jackson, Wyoming-based fund, which is backed by members of the Walton family behind US retailer Walmart, has spent the past several years providing "patient capital" to young firms developing the technologies needed for offshore farms. These have ranged from fish farmers such as Panama-based cobia farmer Open Blue Sea Farms, Mexico-based red snapper pioneer Earth Ocean Farms and Mexican oyster grower Sol Azul Maricultivos as well as recently acquired research and development firm Center for Aquaculture Technologies, which is based in San Diego, California.
Another Cuna del Mar portfolio company, Boston-based submersible net-pen and hatchery designer and builder InnovaSea Systems, has been on an acquisition spree of its own lately. In recent months it has picked up Baton Rouge, Louisiana-based Water Management Technologies, now InnovaSea Land Systems, bringing it recirculating aquaculture system technology. In January Innovasea also bought Nortek Akvakultur, a manufacturer of equipment used to track and wirelessly report environmental data at net-pen sites.
Instrumentation
All of Cuna del Mar's investments fit into the fund's broader vision of where it sees aquaculture going and its role in feeding the planet's project 9.5 billion people by 2050.
"Cuna del Mar is taking the long view. We’re absolutely not saying we’re the only view but how could we use technology and use the intelligence that we should have as a human species in the 21st century to figure out how we can grow fish in the ocean in an environmentally responsible way," Orr said.
He added that the fund's various investments are designed to work together to achieve that goal. That includes what Orr referred to as "instrumentation", monitoring systems recording data about the farm structure itself, the biomass within and the surrounding ocean environment. Applying technologies such as artificial intelligence and machine learning to that data will allow farmers to improve feed patterns and predict disease in their fish to a much greater degree, he said.
"Years ago, a farmer who really knew his herd, you might have a herdsman who could look at cattle in a particular area and they might be able to distinguish 20 different colors of brown and be able to understand that. When you’re 10 miles offshore and 40 meters below the surface it’s harder for farmers to have eyes on that. I think bringing this futurability to maintain a healthy biomass out there is critical," he said.
The individual portfolio companies all fall under that umbrella, he said.
"We’ve been doing a lot of things kind of simultaneously, which is to develop the technological platforms and as we got to understand that, the importance of instrumentation and how that instrumentation impacts and can allow you to operate in much more efficiently and in a much more automated fashion," he said.
Orr's background
The CEO, who has been with the fund since 2012, joined after having successfully built up Ocean Nutrition Canada, a supplier of fish-oil derived omega-3 fatty acids to food and nutrition companies. The company was sold that year to Dutch health and nutrition conglomerate DSM for nearly $536 million, a press release at the time stated.
Orr said that he believes that his background was of interest to the Walton family because they had wanted someone who had run companies "particularly businesses that you could take from a startup, technological theory level and turn them into commercially viable businesses over time".
The family -- the fund is backed by both Christy and Lukas Walton -- has been a long supporter of ocean-related causes and was a significant funder of the Marine Stewardship Council and FishWise among others.
'A 60m metric ton problem'
Orr said that Cuna del Mar sees its goal as developing aquaculture technologies to solve what he called the "60 million metric ton problem". That's the potential shortfall in marine protein projected by the United Nation's Food and Agriculture Organization that will occur by 2050 as the population rises, a significant gap between seafood demand and supply unless aquaculture production ramps up.
That's led to the fund's focus on submersible offshore fish farms and the development of warm water species such as cobia and snapper, he said.
"We’re not saying that land-based systems or even some of the new Chinese-made systems, the new oil rig-type systems, that those things don’t work," he said. "But we don’t think that they’re necessarily the vehicle that allows for transformation of the industry, the growth of the industry, the growth of new farms, both in emerging areas or in southeast Asia. We think it's a different technological problem to solve."
Despite rising openness to aquaculture, lenders have been reluctant to invest directly in the production of warm water species, he added.
"The investment community over the last three, four, five years has become more interested. But again, with a more traditional approach and have been more attracted to the technology side or the feed side or trying to, in a more traditional private equity way, provide growth capital or capital for consolidation and so forth, but no one’s kind of focusing on putting fish in the water," he said.
Fish in the water
What makes the work that Open Blue is doing in Panama and Earth Ocean is doing in Mexico so important is that it helps refine the technologies being developed through beta-testing, Orr said.
"You can look at models of what happens, and wave models and current models and stress tests but until you put stuff in the ocean, that 24-hour a day, 365-day a year unrelenting force that the ocean is, you don’t really know what’s going to happen. We invested in farms because we need to eventually prove out that you can use these systems and run profitable farms and to learn about how to develop those farms with the people who are working with it real time," he said.
Cuna del Mar's long-term path to a financial return could eventually involve licensing its technological aquaculture solutions to other operators, but the fund hasn't reached a definitive conclusion on that, Orr said.
"We have to have the offering for the marketplace in confidence. In order to make this happen, you need to have a supply of fish, you need to have additional some species of fish that are warm water fish and so we have focused pretty much exclusively on getting to that point in time and I would say we’re very close to getting to that point in time," he said.
Cal - Take a look again at your #s on annual fish oil volumes to aquaculture; only about 1 mil mt of fish oil are produced annually. I think perhaps you meant expected total volume growth of aquaculture species til 2030?
But, yes, correct the balance goes to aquaculture feed. Because aquaculture is viewed as a growth opportunity in protein delivery in our slow growth food systems, the investor support has been there to a) ferment >50% DHA algae/other SCOs and b) to find GMO solutions in our land-based crops because aquaculture species need O'3s in their feed or their health suffers.
AMRN old timers may recognize one of the names in this article as part of a consortium for API supply back in 2012. He's riding the aquaculture wave now - works for C. Walton's investment fund...funny the links when doing due diligence.
insert-text-here
Speaking of, fun to see what happens with BYND and the like.
STS - 1 mt = 1,000,000 grams
-----------------
As sales continue to grow of VascEPA then it should draw down the amount of supply going to DS as the plants which are 1) pharmaceutical approved & 2) capable of refining to 95+% levels shift capacity over. That will be a work in progress as JT has alluded to in his recent presentations. He also correctly noted that the yield (conversion) ratio isn't the same as for producing mid-concentrates. The yield also won't be the same as you draw on more <30% oils, but that's more down the line (unless el nino off the S.A. coast).
I've mentioned before - API suppliers would be left with a lot of pharma-grade DHA by-products which will flood the baby formula market especially...
See below for graphical of my above opinion in red.
I was thinking a look-see at the many splendored wonders of the Concours d'Elegance down in your neck of the woods. Just to peek. Of course, if there was an extra pretty classical beauty booming vroom vroom at me...
But, that would be AFTER being responsible. But, of course.
Sure does seem like loads of fun - one of these years I'll make it down for it either that or the jazz festival. Already did the Big Sur marathon years ago with friends as a relay. Hilly. Ick.
On examining herding behavior in estimates since we like the WAG game -
I skimmed this article last year to be mindful of my own many blindspots in "consensus" opinions on earnings (or HAHA - settlement/jury trial estimates). I found a few interesting insights such as the tendency for people to revise their own estimates to be closer to a "thought leader."
www3.nd.edu/~zda/Crowd.pdf
“The more influence we exert on each other, the more likely it is that we will believe the same
things and make the same mistakes. That means it’s possible that we could become individually
smarter but collectively dumber.”
mixed reviews are possible, but unlikely (see pie chart below). Also, CAFC auto-affirms the PTAB almost 47% of the time (rule 36 affirmance).
CBM in the graphic below = covered business method (for financial data products/services)
www.finnegan.com/en/insights/blogs/america-invents-act/Federal-Circuit-PTAB-Appeal-Statistics-Through-March-15-2019.html
Yes, absolutely. But, the few threads I've seen out there to pull on for more DD are early stages & seem pretty far out (6+ years?). I'll be waiting for opportunities to speculate on them if they go the distance.
Kato: see T-man posts #67870 & 68131.
AIF - seems strange your characterization of why Cisco got out of cable modem and set-top manufacturing in 2016. Cisco was losing money. Sold off business for a fraction of their very expensive acquisitions of S-A, etc. Investors wanted them out. Cisco obliged under investor pressure for a contracting business line.
DS- first, SG didn’t recommend that SCOTUS take case. Now, SCOTUS formally denied granting a review of RPX appeal (writ of certiorari).
Awesome! RPX crushed
Next up: Cisco appeal.
I have some friends who are involved with the full cycle bluefin tuna farming out of Japan - it's cool. Funny story I was told after saying I'd like to dive some of the pens - one of their managers who worked out on the pens for a bit, said he would lay around naked all day on the platforms because he'd have to don his scuba equipment so frequently after each feeding to clean the detritus and handle the other tuna husbandry aspects that it wasn't worth it to keep dressing and undressing even in Speedos. Or maybe he was bored and secretly snacking on feed pellets with high levels of EPA and he outgrew the Speedos?
Thai Union is supplying shrimp now that was fed protein produced from methane. Calysta - FeedKind shrimp April 2019
Evonik/DSM (Veramaris) in April said they will be shipping their >50% EPA + DHA algal oil to salmon feed producers in July, on schedule. But, wouldn't say how much.
Soooo, so do you think you can tell - blue skies from pain...
Running over the same old ground
And how we found
The same old fears
wish you were here
2019 crude oil production should be down from 2018 if current trends hold til year end; whether it stays around 37% down will depend on Peru's 2nd season anchovy quota announcement in November. Peru is about 70% of the way through their 1st season quota now according to IMARPE. Bad weather on the coast again currently.
Oil yields are averaging about 4.7% off the fish (remember this % would be inclusive of all grades going to either human or animal feed supply channels).
I'd say JT's comments yesterday seemed very realistic on their product supply & suppliers - neither "bullish" nor "bearish" regarding API concentrators. It is what it is - but if analysts on the circuit keep asking generic "locked up" questions for 2019 - then I guess he repeats himself 100 times. If AMRN has somewhere between $700-$1B in AMR101 forecast for this year, then they've got more than enough with guidance at $350m. Maybe they hit $400m this year. Or $430m. In any of these sales scenarios it sounds like more than enough supply to carry them into 2020 with some excess reserve protection if the 2nd season quota (Nov-Jan) in Peru is a little on the weak side (see 2012 and 2014 2nd season quotas). It sounds like Derek Kalinowski and his team are making the right calls.
LOL. Good one!