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I feel better now, just checked option volumes
http://www.cboe.com/data/IntraDayVol.aspx
DJX:
Calls: 6079
Puts: 27513
4.53!!!!!!!!!
The others are less remarkable....
I see no weakness in anything at the moment
I wonder if this is the burn the shorts before they burn the longs. Expiry is exactly two weeks ago. Or they could float it up to have a strong start on the month and kill the 38 puts....
TICKs strong, TRINs low
Didier Sornette, Professor of Geophysics
http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction
"We have discontinued the update since its was targeted at the "antibubble" which has transformed itself and the present Landau formulas do not apply anymore when extrapolated since 2000. We are now into another regime.
Prof. Didier Sornette has moved to ETH Zurich (The Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland) and remains a visiting professor at UCLA.
We plan to resume this or similar experiments later when our new group in Zurich is set up for this important but very time-demanding task. The updates will be at http://www.er.ethz.ch/."
The last forcast is from August 19, 2005 on the UCLA site.
"It is interesting to note that, while most of the scenarios are bearish on the S&P500, there is the potential (3 out of 20) for a continuation of a moderate growth over the next year. In contrast, for the Value Line Arithmetic Index, most of the scenarios forecast a flat or slightly increasing market over the next year."
And on the new web site, not bad forcast:
http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0506027
From: Wei-Xing Zhou [view email]
Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2005 14:51:36 GMT (126kb)
Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?
"We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006."
Yes thanks
It really says nothing as consumer confidence was worse than expected. Kind of cancel each other out. Then again, could that be read economy is not slowing i.e. interest rates go further up? yawn....
Anyone seen the consumer sentiment figures yet?
They were supposed to be out 30 mins ago...
I just hope some mutual fund holders have learn the game
and gave sell orders on their funds earlier today as they get the net asset value as of close, and the funds need to budget for that..........
PokerSam,
The settlement date is not important. For accounting purposes it is the transaction date i.e. the books are closed at the close of tommorrow, not yesterday.
No I had not seen that...
Thanks for posting it. Just imagine when even a fraction of that unwinds as must at some point. Just came back from a dinner about an hour and 3 quarters away and nothing seems to have changed in the markets...
I'm worried about strong NYSE TICK and TRIN is kind of just flapping
I'd like the TRIN to go to 1.5 or above to feel really save. There have been several TICK pushes above 1000 and it has spent extended times between 400 and 750.
Afraid there will be another leg up NYSE TRIN has fallen to 1.26 and TICK is massive 1080
(oops had a type, corrected to up).
NYSE TRIN going slowly up reached 1.39 but now 1.31.
Another push up as NYSE TICK is bouncing between 450 and 600. It did flirt with 0 for awhile. I'd like TICK negative and TRIN above 1.5
Don't over estimate it either
Although crude prices fall, it does not necessarily mean similar drop in gasoline prices. They will fall, but demand and refinery constraints affect gasoline prices significantly. And the impact on market indices is negative as many of them have either oil produce or related stocks in them.
Also, all those excotic mortgages will really hit some people. This is an interesting article about increasing number of subprime mortgage holders having problems. How reckless some people are: 3.5 in 10 000 subprime mortgage holders miss their first payment!
http://www.sharewatch.com/story.php?storynumber=194557
And the problems are not limited to the subprime sector either:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20060829/bs_nm/financial_firsthorizon_charges_dc_1
Caterpillar trying to fall off the cliff
Used to be one of INDU support pillars... Fall below 65 and next support around 62.50.
Dallas Fed Fisher's speech
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=arPzZ_qbdwaU&refer=news
Says pretty much what is already known.
I don't see reversal yet - very strong NYSE TICK and falling TRIN
says the move continues.
Gleno,
Don't you hate AAPL. Up again. I'm in the same point with you with this. I'm been up and down with it losing time value with my options.
Window dressing ends on the last day of the month
The settlement period is not relevant. The value date (effective) date is the date of transaction. Of course, they can let go a bit earlier, they don't need to close at exact top
Talkiing heads
Yep, it's funny how they are focused on the interest rate expectations and explain everything as the feds are done as if that is good for the equity markets when actually opposite is true: a) it makes bonds safe bet if the feds are actually done b) if they are done, the economy is slowing which is not good for equities either: 8 of last 10 times the feds stopped increasing the rates the markets fell by at least 10% within next 6 months.
After last meeting the fed futures priced 20% change of another rate rise. This alarmed feds so that they came and "clarified" the statement which brought the probability back up to 50%.
Also, some fed is talking today exactly on economy and the interest rates. Haven't seen any reporting of that speech. It took place 9am Eastern time.
NYSE TICK just does not want to give in, it's over 500, hitting over 700 frequently
I wonder if 3pm will reverse the trend.
Interesting how the GBP reports information is reported in the media
Supposedly futures are up because of the report:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=azon4Cqy9RMQ&refer=home
But the expectation for the 2nd quarter GBP was3% and it came at 2.9%. Inventories are up and the following nuggets can hardly be described as positive:
"Home construction fell at an annual rate of 9.8 percent last quarter, the biggest drop since 1995, compared with the 6.3 percent drop originally reported and a 0.3 percent decline the first three months of the year.
...
While spending growth is slowing, prices paid by consumers are not, today's report showed. The government's personal consumption expenditures index, a measure of prices tied to consumer spending, rose 4.1 percent after a 2.0 percent rise in the first quarter. The index excluding food and energy, a measure favored by Fed policy makers, rose at a 2.8 percent annual rate after a 2.1 percent rise the previous quarter."
Sorry it was not meant as an attack
but pointing out the weakness of the arguments the poster put forward. And I should have been clearer since your post shows that some of what I tried to say got misunderstood. Whether the poster has posted a million posts or just one, is neither here or there. I concentrate on what people say...
What I meant by make either TA or fundamental argument was that there was no TA argument and the fundamental things were just superficial hype statements from media without any actual analysis or thought or fuller context.
Technically, you can definetly make an argument that we are about to have another leg up depending on which indicators one chooses to concentrate. But the way I read things still is that there is no clear trend in place.
I most definetly didn't mean that collapse of commodities is of no consequences. It just will not help the equity markets. Just think about the pressure in the broad market indices caused by the miners and mining related shares when they start falling for real.
The collapse of commodities signals demand falling. The futures markets fall faster and earlier compared to the physicals as they are very leveraged and people with good profit start unwinding their positions. This takes place at the same time when consumer demand is under severe pressure from the gas prices and raising interest rates and slow down in the real estate markets. US GDP is 75% consumer spending! (Some years ago it was 60%, recently 66% and now 75%! How come that percenatage has crept up while supposedly business investment should have been picking up slack from the consumer?)
Bubbles move in cycles from one place to another: dot com equities, then real eastate, then commodities. But the cycle is not just from one to another. At some point they all deflate when the weight of fundamentals prevents spin from any more fooling people. There is real asset value destructions: everything goes down. And I am not saying that this will take tomorrow or this month, but it will.
The equity markets have very difficult time of making any real headway when there are real outflows of funds plus mutual fund cash levels are at all time historical lows. Simply put, that means that they have to sell shares to cover any significant redemptions. There is no way out of it.
Yield curve is inverted and is getting more so. Unless things are different this time, it means recessions which is not in any way priced in. PIMCO and several other bond analysts have become bullish in the US bond markets. This means the yield curve will invert further.
Corporate profitability expectations are falling. At some point those expecations will have fallen so low that the companies results will look great against the lowered goal posts but that will not be case yet. The trend in earning expectations is down but it has just started.
Add to the above the possibility that inflation is not under control. Inflation is not CPI or PPI. It is inflation of the money supply which convenietly (for them) the fed is publishing less information than before.
Or and did I remember the question of USD? The fed has painted itself into a corner and I don't see any exit. It is just a question of time. Higher interest rates to support USD or lower to support economy.
An ex-fed board member basically said that the fed got it all wrong by not tighting more heavily into the strength and now faces the problem of tightening into weakness. The article was on Yahoo a couple of days ago.
As for MSFT and Vista, my point is that all the news around it at this point is pure hype and nothing else. The impact on MSFT and related companies bottom line is far away in future. It is far from certain that MSFT will actually meet the end of January 2007 ship date. There is also speculation that this might provide the push for some companies to move away from MSFT products. And no one with thousands of PC will upgrade until SP1 or so.
Thanks,
But be careful. In the short term, things can still bubble. I'm starting to think about moving back to gold now. Not stocks as they are extremely leveraged plays on productions, management and cost of production. Gold and silver futures on the other hand depend solely on the spot price at the end of the day. USD is reaching the critical points. I just saw today the first articles calling for GBP breaking above the $2 to a GBP barrier.
Not unreasonable
but you miss the part where interest rates go up, real estate and stock markets go down....
Many false assumptions
Either make purely TA argument for higher prices (which I could see) or fundamental argument. But try to be critical. As for fundamental arguments, there is absolute none for the next year. In fact, historical fundamentals argue for total collapse. The first thing you have to learn that you will never get the truth of the economic situation from anyone remotely connected to the government or Wall Street. At the end of the day, they are in business of either trying to make the public feel good about themselves (in order to stay in power) or selling you something (in order to earn their bonuses).
"1. Commodities finally cracking down - they had a put a BIG cap on stocks to move up."
Commodities topping will mean that the hot money will seek the security of fundamentals. The US stock market is not that. Stocks are not cheap by any means. They never got cheap by any historical measure fundamental measure. Bear markets destroy value. They kill the euphoria that was created by printing money. The sector rotations works brilliantly until there is a realisation than none of it actually presents any value. I expect a USD crisis and long stock market slump. It will happen unless things are really different this time. But then again they have never been different ever before.
What we are seeing is the destruction of the speculative bubble in commodities and real estate. Btw. even big caps are not really moving up, instead few selected ones that have high influence on the index values are moving.
"2. Interest rate pause and may lower rates next year."
You do know that 8 out of the last 10 times when the interest rate cycle hikes stopped, the markets fell by 10% or more within the next 6 months. I expect the situation to be much worse this time as I do not expect the inflation to be under control. Many people have completely forgotten what inflation is fundamentally. It is not CPI or PPI. I recommend going back to the foundations.
In the fundamental analysis area in the media, there is way too much searching for new theories to explain why we will not follow the path of the history and why internet bubble was not just that and why US dollar printing presses running out of control should not cause world wide consequences. Remember, no recession has EVER been forecasted by the official organs as that is BAD. Can you imagine a treasury sectary coming out and saying that the economy will fall into a recessions? But it does not mean that it does not happen. Laws of physics have not changed and neither have the laws of economy. One of them is that the longer you inflate the bubble, the more painful the fall out. Yes, you can postpone it, but you cannot avoid it.
I think the two most important developments recently times are the bank of Japan stopping (btw. May I ask you to check how US markets reacted the last few times when they did that…..) the quantitative easing and China reigning in liquidity in their markets. I'm afraid my feeling about the future of US markets is that it will follow the painful path that Japan took. Chinese central bank actual sounds much more rational and trying to counter the overheated economy with actions instead of just words. Japan has been the source of cheap money for, what, a couple of decades now. Imagine that all those borrowers actually have to pay it back now! It's a perfect storm.
"3. Vista is being compared to Win 95 and application/technology wave that followed - Marked improvement over predecessor (Win XP / Win 3.1)."
That's called hype not bottom line. First of all, technically, it might be a flop and I cannot see any sensible business upgrading until at least service pack 1. And there is a real question whether MSFT will be forced to actually delay the release once more.
Besides, MSFT is just one stock, not the market.
"4. Capital/Technology spending by Businesses with Vista"
Another spin, not a fact. There is a move away from closed systems. Just check the state of Massachusetts.
"5. Boomer spending continues to be strong"
And they will be caching their savings and pension plans.
"6. Global expansion {Recovery in Europe (Germany) & Japan and expansion in China, India}"
And you think they will help US? Both UK and US have service economies. They "manufacture" intangibles. Euro area has positive balance of payments while both UK and US have negative. Their economies have done well on the hype and Enron accounting. It will never last forever.
No, I think the fed rally did last a bit longer
Might just let out soon, though. I can't believe that the NYSE TICK was 1432! TRIN is increasing though, now 1.11 from 1.08. NYSE TICK about 600, Nasdaq 150.
Oh, the rally was I guess on this:
"Fed minutes reveal most policy-makers thought inflation pressures would ease but risks remain."
INDU made it up well, I must say. Fast players could've made a good bundle. I just got to my screen at home 10 minutes after release..
Handle broke off...
True, but it shows a massive negative divergence
Just look at the MACD readings at the bottom in April 05 and now versus the price then and now.... That divergence is clear and HUGE! I wonder how that will get resolved?
Futures falling after market close
News out?
Can't see the chart
So are all bulls long finally for the fall?
The NYSE TICK has been very strong today, but I still think this is just the up before fall. We've been very strong in tick and trin but most of the advance came very early. I tend to agree with PokerSam, big fall is ahead. I just don't quite trust anything. But we are at the edge of a big move one way or another. Either the buyers give in or the shorts give in. The question is was this move sold or was it real buying?
Mini NDX Sep futures
You could view that we have been in a slim jim since 11am. The question is which way does it break.... Still time for large moves.
So far everytime it looks promising for down,
the ticks get push at highs. Happenning right now again. NYSE TICK fell to 1 and now back above 500. TRINS are very low. I wish they would give up!
Enough is enough,
bought a small QQQQ Sep 38 position at 0.27. Hoping that the current bull flag fails and we move down....
PokerSam,
I don't like the peristently high NYSE TICK and now NYSE TRIN has fallen to 0.86. This looks like we will sustain the move at least today. It could be pump it up in face of economic news that will take it down. But it is difficult to forcast the market reaction at this point to economic news. Month end is Thursday...
Why did the count require taking out the Friday high?
What a contrarian things - now both NYSE TICK and TRIN falling
TRIN fell to 0.93 and tick 138. Nasdaq TICK 42 and TRIN at its clued in low value of 0.42. I've started to think that Nasdaq Trin has died.
Looks like another push higher starting - TICKS very high NYSE anobove 1000 and Nasdaq over 600
Hope this fails soon... (Oops is that the dangerous hope indicator coming to play!)
Interesting open - high NYSE TICK and TRIN
I wonder if this is one of those up for 15 min or so and then down no later than 10am... Oops looks like down already, TICKS are falling negative.
TRINs
I would like to see TRINs going up to confirm the end of the Bernacle bounce. Nyse TRIN kept me in a short a bit too long as it went all the way to 1.20 while the initial bounce started after open. Got out with a small profit. Now, the NYSE TRIN has fallen to 0.94. Nasdaq TRIN looks anemic at 0.54, but it seems to be less important except when confirming strong downdrafts i.e. when it is above 1.5.
NYSE TRIN climbing now 1.25
TICK still about 400!
Your words seem to be profetic again!