T/A ETF AND INDEX

[shortterm]

Didier Sornette, Professor of Geophysics



http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/prediction/index.asp#prediction

"We have discontinued the update since its was targeted at the "antibubble" which has transformed itself and the present Landau formulas do not apply anymore when extrapolated since 2000. We are now into another regime.

Prof. Didier Sornette has moved to ETH Zurich (The Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich, Switzerland) and remains a visiting professor at UCLA.

We plan to resume this or similar experiments later when our new group in Zurich is set up for this important but very time-demanding task. The updates will be at http://www.er.ethz.ch/."

The last forcast is from August 19, 2005 on the UCLA site.

"It is interesting to note that, while most of the scenarios are bearish on the S&P500, there is the potential (3 out of 20) for a continuation of a moderate growth over the next year. In contrast, for the Value Line Arithmetic Index, most of the scenarios forecast a flat or slightly increasing market over the next year."


And on the new web site, not bad forcast:

http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0506027

From: Wei-Xing Zhou [view email]
Date: Fri, 3 Jun 2005 14:51:36 GMT (126kb)

Is There a Real-Estate Bubble in the US?

"We find that 22 states (mostly Northeast and West) exhibit clear-cut signatures of a fast growing bubble. From the analysis of the S&P 500 Home Index, we conclude that the turning point of the bubble will probably occur around mid-2006."