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Of course they will release something. It costs almost nothing I make an app, they will be able to throw together a piece of garbage to keep siphoning money out of this. And chumps will talk up the release of the garbage to enable more shares to be dumped, as BK is 1-2 months away with the current burn rate otherwise. After all these years and such a late entry to market, they need to do a lot more than dump something out, it should be innovative and add something new, as this concept already exists in cheaper forms.
Hey, I'm new to this board sorry if it's repetitive. Do they have a license to grow? I wish it gave more details on when the greenhouse would be completed since it seems like the time frame begins then, that they described in the PR. either way, seems like a reasonable approach to entering the market, and overall seems like good news. Also, has anyone looked into the financials of this conpany they are paired with, they describe ongoing business, any indication that it's a reputable preexisting business?
All it says is that they found two dispensaries to participate in beta test. Two is not 'two many' after all this time. It also says they are 'collaborating' with two divisions of one company but then offers zero explanation of what that collaboration is, who is footing the bill, and how equity would be divided that is derived from this murky 'collaboration.' Nor do they provide any information on why on earth this collaboration is necessary. Why do they need to collaborate, if their app is so good. The company mentioned with this collaboration is just a digital marketing hole in the wall. Maybe they should collaborate with their local ups store or staples if they want to make a sign or a two minute video to cycle in stores. Would save a lot of time and money. Burke is a true executive. He seems born to delegate tasks to outside providers with shareholder cash, providing no useful service of his own. What a joke
Glad you were able to find that. Went in the google app and still found nothing searching for 'bump up' or 'bump up rewards' but got a hit that showed up when I put in the company name. I used that 'copy and paste' trick you talked about to google dynamic gift cards llc, found an informational page stating they have one employee, and revenue estimate of $5,000 per Year, and have existed since 2013.
Listed my iPhone results as most people have iPhones.
If it can't be found easily, it won't be used. Even if it could be found easily, which clearly there is no money to afford advertising, yeah, I'll stop there.
I also saw there were 17 reviews for their app in the google store, with all recent reviews stating that the app wasn't working, and that password reset links weren't functional.
I am learning all kinds of things with that copy and paste thing!
Instead of buying $1,000,000 shares today, I gave the $10 bucks it would've costed to a young person on the corner who claimed to be homeless and supporting a family. He looked just like burke! It probably wasn't him though. Not with 2.3 million a quarter he has to burn on developing "Apps"
http://ir.vikingtherapeutics.com/2017-06-06-Viking-Therapeutics-Announces-Promising-Top-Line-Results-from-In-Vivo-Study-of-VK2809-in-Non-Alcoholic-Steatohepatitis-NASH
Data is totally consistent with the phase I lipid stuff we already had. A really strong consistency study that also extends the lipid reduction into nash benefit (previously more of an assumption) in animal models, in one of the most common Nash pathways (dietary). This is great news!
On the Cannasys website it lists their app "Bump up" - says it's available in the App Store. Searched the App Store on my iPhone... no such app exists. Was hoping to find it and see how many downloads. Also no app found searching by them as the publisher. What gives?
Bump Down!
PR software is cheap and available for dispensaries, just ask your local dispensary and see what they are using. What are they using the $100,000 dollars for to revamp the app they still have yet to launch, and why is it needing revamped if it has never been used. It doesn't cost $100,000 to retune an app. Numerous red flags here. Their are much easier ways to gamble in this industry with much higher probabilities of not being swindled. Good luck getting people to buy those shares they continue to dump. Prove me wrong, I'll be the first to admit it. Why wouldn't they turn the company over to a young guy who actually has programming and app experience, save themselves 100K and actually give the whole thing a glisten of reasonability
In conjunction with that transaction ONLY. No mention that it will not be needed otherwise! How are they going to keep running when the last of their shares are issuable are used up very soon?! Burn rate implies they have 1-2 months remaining. Outside of that SINGLE transaction, which will increase expenditures as well duh, how will they keep this scam running without dilution/RS etc?!?! How many more billion shares will be needed to run even the existing scam as is for a single additional year, 8-10billion??? Do the math! You only read what is written, and pay no attention to how it is said, and what isn't
So they're putting $100,000 into citizenJoke 2.0 before citizenJoke1.0
gets launched?!! LOL! That makes a ton of sense. Wonder where that money is really going. Creating a newer version of a texting based app that is supposedly so wonderful... for 100K.
How are they honestly finding people to buy this garbage? Also laughing at their supposed plans to charge a monthly fee. Cue 100,000 reasons that will never work in this particular industry.
Keep dreaming children. I sure hope you are all paid pumpers, and that nobody actually believes this tall tale. Watch a few episodes of American Greed on tv, learn a little about how these things work
So how on earth do u expect this company to magically carry on, when they have used up their last billion with a B shares? And on what terms will anyone provide them additional capital?!? They are already failing to pay for toxic debt. Anyone who would be foolish enough to lend on this would have nothing to lose and be part of the scam.
It is not too early to see profits in this industry. Many companies are gaining solid ground and some of their better ones are running even, even with co-occurring rapid expansion I would add.
If anyone is lucky enough to be in the green on this one, abandon ship while you have two nickels to rub together and count your blessings. The PR specifically says that the upcoming deal won't require dilution, read the wording. Wording is key. In no way does it state dilution will not otherwise be needed. The only way I would think about buying this junker, is if I sensed that the would need to bump shares price to sell shares one day, which is about a million years away right now because of the convertible debt terms that others will want to try to scrape out of this anything left.
Buyer Beware
Thanks for posting that. A very appropriate target, right around 200 mil cap, totally agree.
You're looking at the daily chart. Zoom out a bit. Months of continually dropping volume, barely treading water now that buy volume is on life support. Volume is gonna chop this boy if good news doesn't come first. Forest through the trees me boy. Look out below! TIMMMMBBERR!!!
Level 2 so green. Santa Haas, circling your grow house, sleigh so full of grow boxes, riding so dirty. Better have those cookies and cheetos out. Your inbox is gonna be so full, he's ridin so dirty
So I actually viewed their glorious 'app' today. So let me get this straight... you have 60 seconds to respond to their 'exclusive' offers, and have to redeem in 5 hours. They expect a bunch of stoners on their couches to quickly respond to online marketing, and head on over to the store!?!?! I know none of them have jobs, but clearly they have missed the boat on this one. How about they launch CitizenThriftySoccerMom instead, people that actually are engaged in online marketing culture. If this weren't already near bankruptcy, it would be a great thing to short. CitizenToke will be officially CitizenBroke, and shortly after CitizenCroak LOLOLLLL
Who is actually requesting or using their 'innovative' payment solutions. This will either be forced to move to banking when fed changes policy, or stay all in cash. Are you guys actually naive enough to think that most of these businesses aren't ENJOYING operating in CASH only. It's one of the only industries out there that makes tax evasion the standard operating procedure. Nobody wants this garbage. They will move to bank when it is allowed, and REQUIRED to avoid a boatload of hassle from the govt, not a single SECOND before. Wake up and cut your losses
One can only fathom the dilution that will be needed for this 'deal' they have. How much is all of this PR costing shareholders? If they are going to pay for these ridiculous PR promotions, one would assume they should pay an 8th grader to proofread them first. What would be great, would be to get actual PR's, spelled and dated correctly, with actual progress they have made on the last 10 promises they made that never will materialize. Always on to the next thing with these kind of guys. Most likely scenario, this scam was hatched a few months ago, with that may date, price went up enough to allow for dilution, and they waited for price to tank before releasing this garbage, and forgot to change the date.
Why on earth would anyone be shorting a stock trading at .0007?!?! How many more zeros can they add after that decimal point LOL
When California goes legal and big money comes is thrown down by major players, I simply don't see a demand for this project. I also find it ludicrous to imagine themselves as 'major player' in MJ 'without ever touching a plant.' Look at the mkt caps on the Canada stocks, it's easy to see where things are headed here.
Better sell quick then, if that's about to happen
What do you think they needed to dilute those addition 200,000 shares for, maybe ordering take out for the office???
I've never seen a 1:1Billion reverse split, I'm thinking about getting in on history if this continues into next year :))))
This is next McDonald's, "billions and billions sold!" LOL. 2 or 3 shares for every human on the planet. For a couple bucks, I could buy shares for a small country!
I thought for sure my computer screen had froze today, turns out I accidentally clicked on level 2 trading
Loving the numerous grammatical errors in that article! For a PR firm, lets just find somebody with an 8th grade education that'll be a jumpstart! Maybe they can send me the next one first and I'll throw it in the spell checker, save them the shame
Does anyone know what the specific issue is/why trading isn't available on scotttrade and thru some of the others? Has anyone spoken to them and gotten any specifics? I have occasionally had issues with certain stocks in the past and my broker can cryptically give me some indication if there is some sort of warning or problem I should be aware of. Looks like the company has been around for awhile. I use etrade and have not had any issues or inconvenience with this one
I'm digesting some of their scam product right now! Scam never tasted so good... keep the scam warnings come, I'm staying chilllll over here
I sure hope this new IR and accounting firm plans don't get 'SQUASHED' lol. Good to see some good news going into an expected uptick as Nevada goes live. I think Nevada numbers will be a big boost to the industry, it's a much more friendly set up given that it's tourism friendly all around
Unfortunately they continue to dilute, more dilution this month. I'm definitely looking to re-enter this... and I've made solid money the last two times I've entered, but this is still far from a buy and hold stock for me. If I could get some shares at .12 or below I'd be comfortable holding them up until news. In the meantime, dilution will keep us dwindling. I strongly believe in the product, don't get me wrong, and think this could eventually make people very rich. I just don't really believe in their short term ability to raise funding in an acceptable fashion
I appreciate the compliment. Unfortunately my day job makes it unwise for me to be even quasi-involved with anything that isnt directly linked to what I do, credibility is overly important in the niche I work within. Despite the amounts I gamble on this stuff, it will likely always just be a hobby, until I hopefully hit a few more things big and can walk away from my day job. Nothing too cryptic, I definitely don't work for a pharma co or on wall st or for the govt.
But I do appreciate the compliment, and plan to stay around on here through the upcoming rocky times Viking will undoubtedly face. As the approval process moves forward, all kinds of characters will come out of the woodwork with conspiracy theories in order to get the shares cheaply. If they don't show up, it means we're in trouble haha. I enjoy talking about the challenges and realities early on, rather than having others freely twist everything around for their own financial purposes in a few months.
Have a good week
Waffles
Howdy. So a few thoughts. Viking clearly has their reasons for the doses they used. They have all kinds of data, the stuff I only dream about having. An important thing to consider is the plasma levels of the hip drug. The blood levels of the drug at the end of their 21 day trial were triple the levels they were initially seeing after dosing got going. My gut is telling me that this is a key factor in determining their dose range. This drug clearly accumulates in the body. Steroid molecules also stimulate secondary genetic pathways, and it's hard to argue 1:1 level to action effects when genetic signaling pathways are involved. The truth will come out soon enough if it was wise to go conservative on the dosing. This is a significantly longer trial, i.e. More time for the drug to accumulate. Who knows what the plasma levels will actually look like by day 90. Maybe they dosed conservatively to account for plasma accumulation. It could've been an error to jack the dose up too high, see huge accumulations with extended dosing period, and start to see some weird stuff. Based on the accumulation factor, I think they are doing it right. The plasma levels went up exponentially as the dose increased, so 2mg might not necessarily equal twice the concentrations of 1 mg. It's a shot in the dark. They are trying to get the sweet spot... high enough to show efficacy, not high enough to show side effects. There's literally no competition. Effect size doesn't have to be huge to get this in everyone's hands. It also needs to be mild enough to get it in everyone's hands though. Once you go too high in dosing and potentially show side effects, nobody will care that it occurred only at higher levels, it will be viewed equally as dangerous for all doses. And if the effect size isn't massive, it will stay on someone's shelf somewhere in that scenario. Bottom line, if they want this to be used in everyone that has a hip fracture, they have to minimize the risk of overdoing it. Keep in mind that it's a cool novelty to give people lower dose selective steroids after a hip... it's dr Frankenstein stuff to give bodybuilder doses of an anabolic pseudo-analog to grandma. They will get there. If they show good data and tolerability, the doses will eventually get jacked up in subsequent trials... but you gotta do that after everyone sees the safe little brother drug. The fact that he mentioned gastroenteritis as a side effect, when literally one person had it, makes me wonder if the piece is unbiased. It's an odd thing to mention in such a short article. But hey, it is mentioned in the trial report. I also smiled at the fact that he suspected they would be late to report, but hadn't realized they had already discussed the delay weeks ago. He doesn't appear to be actively following this, and he doesn't add anything new... it's a totally non scientific stock analysis. Another thought... they tested this drug in phase one in healthy 40/50 year old guys, people that already have higher muscle mass, steady jobs and routines... They weren't being put through strenuous physical therapy. They had nothing on the line healthwise to motivate them to boost strength. I expect these old hip patients to either sit in bed and wither, and maybe see some small muscle mass effect (they are using a wise approach with decades testing btw to find effect) or to hit the ground running and fight for their lives. I think that's why we are likely selectively recruiting. You just don't want the wither people, they clearly needed to find a model that selected them out. So if they are doing it right, it will probably be easier to see effect size and better results. There is more that can be implied along those lines, all of it good though.
Regarding his analysis of the lipid drug, he mentions that the reduction in triglycerides weren't statistically significant for the lower dose. That completely ignores the magnitude of reduction though. Tiny effect sizes in tiny populations with tiny p values... this is absolutely not the case. It just missed the p value cutoff, and likely only because of the trial size. They literally showed 75%+ triglyceride reduction at the highest dose, that's insane. The p value missed in the mid range on a nearly 40% triglyceride reduction. And he then gripes that they are using a 10 mg dose for the trials, and implies they aren't going to be analyzing triglycerides because he can't find it in the study brief on the FDA site. So he obviously did not listen to the conference call. If they didn't reduce the dose cutoff to 10 mg, who knows what on earth the new trial would have shown. It's one thing to reduce someone's triglycerides 80% if they have a severe hereditary disease associated with triglyceride accumulation. Reduce normal people with run of the mill high lipids, cutting their triglycerides by 80%... we have no idea what effect that would have on a common person metabolically. A lot of these pathways interact and have circuit breakers. Bodies do strange things sometimes to compensate. It's territory we don't need to be treading into. The study size for our phase two will easily meet p value if they powered it correctly, now that more patients are being studied. Again, it's the only sane way to be approaching the trial. I don't expect him to know that stuff, but I also don't expect him to be talking about p values and pretending to know what they translate to in terms of clinical significance, so I was disappointed in that regard.
Either way, in the world I was raised in, any press is good press. We are unknown. Even half hearted bash pieces, if negative, are still free advertising that we are out there. The more press we get before data, bad or not, the better positioned we will be to move on good data.
I also think he missed the mark on needing to dilute after results. He made no mention of their ATM arrangement, completely disregarded it. Yeah, dilution is possible... but it defies logic to see the company make it this far preserving insider ownership and utilizing less dilutive measures to operate, and to expect them to begin operating like every other crippled start up biotech.
He hit the mark though, with his target audience. If you know nothing about SARMs and lipids, you should stay out until they have data in hand. His advice to buy after news ignores the low float. My hope is that this will be a tough stock to chase on good news.
The article gave me a good excuse to review the old trials and data though! So not a total loss. I won't be losing any sleep over it though.
Hey Greens. Phase 3's usually last 1-3 years. The hip drug is an easier one to guesstimate. They should have data cleaned up by end of year and an FDA update meeting scheduled at least. I like the hip drug much more than the lipid drug, from a FDA timeline perspective. If the side effect profile is ok from phase 2, this is a drug that can potentially prevent early death/mortality in elderly/frail populations. I think their phase 3 will be somewhere in the shorter to mid range length, as far as Phase 3 duration goes. Not to be crude, but when the endpoints are quality of life, walking or not walking, death or no-death, it doesn't make sense to force a long phase 3. It also makes some of the side effect profile easier to tolerate if stuff is there. It's a 'better or with it, or without it' scenario. If mortality rate or quality of life metrics show promise, it could end up quickly heading down the fast track alleys, and they could just do post-marketing to really follow those people out there as the years tick on, maybe even restricting it to the sickest people before the potential phase 4 stuff is all said and done. I definitely feel we will have an FDA decision before the warrants expire... but how soon before, nobody knows. There just isn't a lot of pharma competition in the steroid market, like rich rich guys that can clog up the government process. If it can move, and it doesn't harm people, I don't think there will be many people out their with financial motives to stop it.
The lipid drug is more of a mess. There is insane competition in that space, and this would be a game changer. The powers that be, no matter how good it looks, will make the FDA process drag, imho. Look for lots of bumps in the road, regardless, and a long phase 3. Even though statins aren't great for many reasons, we have a lot of data on them, good and bad albeit. To enter that space in a lipid lowering indication, they are going to have to compete with the status quo, and claw into the market.
That's why I think they are being incredibly intelligent by looking for orphan indications, it will still be tricky, but will be harder to stop if the data is good. I expect the orphan indication fast track stuff to are only chance of seeing anything meaningful before the warrants run out. That being said, it also makes us a wonderful takeover target if the lipid data is super good. It's easier to buy us sometimes, that it is to grease the wheels of government indefinitely. Especially with the changes to the FDA process that are being hinted at under our the new leadership.
That being said, the price target question is too hard to guess, because of your second question. I can think of innocent and not as innocent reasons why we are trading at a fraction of our competition in the lipid space.
Most obvious being... outside of doctors and scientists, who on earth has ever heard of a thyroid beta agonist, let alone that isn't for your thyroid, or a non-bodybuilder that has heard of a SARM. They sound like voodoo. The SARM isn't a steroid molecule, so it will be perceived as weaker (even though it's a false premise) until data proves otherwise. Not only that, but our low float and huge insider ownership, it leaves no room for the fat cats to manipulate the heck out of it all day long, and it can never be their plaything, not anytime soon. The reason why the competition company you mentioned is trading so high, is probably just a factor of the guys who are own most of the shares behind closed doors, and what their motivations are. I'd much rather be with our company, as they have strong motivation to not dilute and to protect themselves in the current structure, and are less at the mercy of market 'forces.' If they are forced to dilute at some point to any significant degree, all bets are off. They are playing this perfectly with the way they are financing progress. Once we get known enough to where big players will be forced in, all bets are off. Once little guy traders want this stock, the big guys will not loner be able to resist the chance to get in and screw with it. There will be a big initial jump when one of them enters, and I will probably start selling some percentages of my stake about 2-3 months after that occurs... just before the manipulation stuff really kicks in. Where we are at that point, my guess is somewhere between 4 and 12 dollars. I could easily see us having a 350-700 million market cap when we one day have a pdufa date set and are waiting those last few months. I guess it al depends on how many shares there are at that point. If we hit two home runs on phase two, and get a break with how quickly the orphan indication can progress, I could easily see a 200 mil market cap by mid next year.
All bets are off though with such a low float, that's just what I've seen before with similar stuff. I made some of my original cash on diet drugs a couple of years ago, and those guys were startups who briefly attained 1 billion dollars caps. It's totally doable, but it's a long way away.
Even if we are still waiting on the FDA when the clock ticks down on the warrants in a few years, we would still be well positioned if nothing horrible changes.
Have a good one!
Really hoping to get those $.10 shares soon. I think it's only a matter of time before we get some sort of news...
Thanks for the reply! Have a nice weekend.
OPNT$
GLTA
Why would they issue a blatantly false PR? That would be suicide for the company they are starting up. It just doesn't make any sense. Can you please explain that
Excellent question. Here are only a few possible answers, there are more that are beyond the scope of what we are capable of, that will apply to larger institutions. The main answer for smaller to medium size investors, is liquidity. The warrants lack liquidity. If I can sell the warrants outright at their inherent value or get any premium on time, I would always choose that option, for convenience alone. But average investors have no experience with warrants. If the stock goes to $3, your average joe will buy the stock for 3, as opposed to the possibility of losing all money by buying a warrant for 1.50+ at that point. People with no real confidence in this company that just want to day trade, will avoid these like the plague. When they are in the money, I personally don't see them as any riskier than the common... because I strongly believe in these guys. Others who aren't in this for the long haul will only see expiration risk and long term worst case scenarios. People are simply too impatient and risk averse for this type of instrument. So I don't honestly know if premiums will ever be consistently paid for them. Worst case scenario for people entering the stock at that point is the stock going to $2 or less again, and being saddled with a time constraint to make something happen and unload them in such an illiquid scenario. The prices just trade too close together because of the exercise price, making them just a pseudo proxy of the common stock, that trades incredibly thinly.
So here is a scenario I will personally face if the stock does ok. Stock goes to $3 on good news, I own way too many warrants to ever expect to sell them outright and consistently get what I would actually make by exercising them and selling at market. If this isn't the next blockbuster, can I really expect to be able to find the warrant trading volume to unload 100K+ of them... especially in a hurry if we really move and I fear a correction. So I will personally implement a hybrid approach... others will exercise and sell the common on good days when prices are good. I will hold some with the hope of being able to sell at premium. I won't be able to day trade them though in conjunction with the actual stock movement. Say we get good side news or it's a great day in the market and our stock swings up 20 cents, I won't be able to expect to make 20 cents outright by selling the warrant on that day, as buyers of warrants don't usually chase 1:1 (even though the inherent value is appreciating 1:1) on those kinds of movement. I will absolutely need to exercise a fair amount of my warrants, so that I am able to capitalize on swing trading. Second thought, if I am holding a couple hundred thousand warrants, I'm just not going to be able to sell that many because of liquidity, unless this gets tons of attention and people are clawing for anything they can get. If I even want to sell that many warrants if maybe we appreciate in value, my only option to sell any bigger blocks of them is to exercise them, and then sell the common, which still isn't the most liquid stock to begin with. It's the only option if you own a lot. And I will absolutely exercise a portion early. Once we start to move, I will sell some warrants outright, to raise the capital needed to exercise some, and will pay to exercise early rather than later, so that if the stock starts to move and I want to exit a portion of my position, I wont be held captive waiting to receive the shares I exercise
. Hope that makes sense.
Here's the second point. Most people holding these warrants aren't average investors. They are big guys. They got in early and put down significant capital. Some of those companies will have other motivations to exercise. I have no idea who owns them. They aren't bound by the rules of filing for % ownership. If it's a company like ligand, and Viking strategically needs capital, or they have strategic interests to garner a certain percentage of the common, increase voting rights etc, make a public statement by increasing their stake of the common that could positively impact share price, etc etc, market manipulation and power play type stuff, they will end up exercising. That's why nobody is selling the warrants and they aren't being Day traded like common shares, it's the only way that institutions can retain an ability to silently guarantee the ability to enter in bigger percentages. If they are owned by companies that have strategic interests in Viking and the company is hurting for cash, it could also be a win win for their company and Viking to exercise them and generate the capital for the company as well if they are short on cash and dilution is a short term concern.
Short answer, if you're buying 40,000 warrants or less, you won't need to know any of this, and just don't worry about it. Also... there are somewhere around 8-10 million warrants. And they aren't very liquid. So once they start being exercised, these are going to get pretty rare. No matter what happens, I will be holding at least 25% of what I have until late late in the game, as they will be hard to find, and I will be more likely to be able to name my price. Kind of like my own little marketplace. I really like the warrants, because the crowd that owns them are disciplined, at least up to this point. They don't panic sell in general. Nobody is undercutting anyone else. They are being sold meticulously and rarely, without compromising the price. I don't think they are as prone to being manipulated in an unfavorable way, at least for now.
I think about this junk all the time, so maybe some of it I haven't said clearly. Feel free to ask follow up if I am screwing up getting this across in a clear fashion!
So our biggest danger, in your viewpoint, is the SEC shutting down a $1 million cap company for at worst amending their share structure. They are a publicly traded company running a pot delivery service... and that's what's keeping you awake at night?! I can think of much less scary things to put your money in friend. This is the gamble of a lifetime. This will make a fortune if it is allowed to continue. That's the gamble. The SEC isn't our problem. The FED is lol. Federales my boy. I'll throw a few K at this, to live vicariously through guys with much bigger kahones than I've dreamt of having. I do enjoy your posts though, they are a pleasant distraction for the actual challenges we face. Please continue!
Also quickly wanted to add: regarding their financial situation and possible dilution- I would envision a modest amount of the warrants being exercised if we have good news in august/sept on the SARM. If warrants were 100% exercised it would give the company around 12 million in cash or so. I don't think it's unreasonable to believe that share prices around 3.00 would generate at least 1/3 of that amount in exercise activity, which should bring enough capital to buy extra additional time to partner. Have a good weekend all, hope you aren't on these boards like I am and are out enjoying life.
Waffles
Wow they seemed to move quickly entering the market and generating revenue. Fairly exciting stuff. I got an update from iHub this am recommending the company. The industry itself has gotten smacked lately but I'm hopeful that may change by years end if govt stuff happens, or at least if nothing bad happens. Nevada and Colorado going live for rec will be a strong boost regardless if the political climate doesn't change imho. I'm quite familiar with the sheer number of scan stocks there are in this industry, but I'm equally aware of just how few stocks there are that are actually associated with businesses that operate dispensaries or sales, so that's my reason for taking the gamble. I bought in around .1, and will likely hold for the next few months to see if they can build momentum. 500 million is my lucky number haha. That's a great show of confidence to see them taking the AS to a reasonable level. Looking forward to the next few months as rec gets closer. I'm fully prepared to hear the endless drone of nay-sayers preaching doom and gloom about this one, I think it comes with the territory in an industry that made me a lot of money in 2014, and saw others losing much. I'm not saying I will hold these industry stocks forever, but there is sentiment and optimism now that has been missing for a few years, and I think patience will again be rewarded. I highly doubt the current govt admin will allow anyone to go after medical or rec with the sheer number of other battles they are fighting. If they do crack down on operations that are on the fringe of created rules it might create a small panic, but I still really doubt that will occur. There are more than enough people operating in the market of illicit hard drugs that need cleaned up in this country. Waging a simultaneous war on pot during one of our biggest heroin epidemics in history will pull too many resources from the real fight, and dull the message. The current share available (not AS) count should put their cap around $1 mil right now. If they are actually doing 20K a month now conservatively before rec starts, they still would see $250K a year if nothing happened and their start up remained mom n pop status. It's easy math for me to wager on this, even assuming they will have to dilute to expand quickly, as every other player in the publicly traded space is doing that operate sales sites in this industry.
Just my 2 cents, take it or leave. A really nice jump today to validate the efforts they've shown to reassure share holders. Ihub mentioned they made some filings that show they are close to getting current with their filings, hopefully that's the case and we see them sometime soon. With all the changes they've made, it's not surprising to see them not out on time, but hopefully it won't be a pattern. Regards to anyone who has lost on this in the past and missed out on this, and best of luck moving forwards.
Greetings! Finally had a few minutes to sit around and read the transcript of the call. I listened in, but always like to read the exact wording/language they used, before I say anything too dumb.
A few thoughts. Yep trial results coming in slowly is a pain, but I really didn't expect much different. A company this new and this small, even with ligand, I would have been shocked if everything was quick. I actually didnt (and still don't) think it would be difficult to find hips, I knew the Nash stuff would be a pain. The slower hip fracture enrollment leads me to suspect that they are either working diligently keep the trial cost reasonable and not pushing the budget, or that they are recruiting in a very selective fashion. Hopefully the second. Especially with it being so new, they seem smart enough to do the trial 'intelligently' and with a decent population, which would probably give them maximum chance of a smaller enroll or shorter phase 3. Either way, I don't think the slower enroll is worrisome. If you grab every grandma off the street with a hip, you're going to get scraps. If they are doing what I suspect, my guess is that the mortality rate will be low, all around. I don't think it will affect the data validity though, as it's not going to be a long enough trial where you could start to wonder if the population is reflective. Finding better patients will also reduce the chance of recorded side effects, possibly. More frail, more problems, all around. All just guesses and conspiracy theories. Pharma stuff all goes the same. Only the fools rush in.
I suppose the best thing they said, was what they didn't say. No significant dilution, no unforeseen problems, all pipelines moving, partnering interest. The cash burn is incredibly reasonable for a company with two phase twos in full swing, and other irons in the fire. The 9 months of cash burn time will get them well past hip data, and maybe lipid data. I would hope they partner if hip data is good, but it may not be necessary. I could easily foresee a situation where ligand doubles down on their stake when they are allowed, and the easiest way to do that is an arrangement giving the company capital in some form, and a clear win win. Burning cash this slowly really gives them the opportunity to partner wisely and without desperation, especially with ligand in the wings. If they dilute, they would all only be harming themselves.
The request to lower the LDL on the other lipid trial is incredibly wise. Quicker enroll, healthier patients, again possibly less side effect population, etc.
Regarding my last posts, I feel that side effect profile will be the main factor in how quickly the hip or lipid drugs could reach other populations. Docs are much quicker to go off label when drugs aren't clearly harmful. The side effect profiles are way more important to me than primary endpoint showing phenomenal results. As long as the primary is statistically significant, the rest of the secondary stuff and side effect profile will matter way more in the long run. The quality of life stuff, if good for hip study, would hopefully imply that longer phase 3 studies will really start to show that the treatment arm moving away. Happier people, better core strength, they get off the couch more, and don't continue to wither and get the predictable stuff that takes people out, blood clots, utis, etc. It would also make it more likely to make it a longer term drug for dosing, possibly.
The lean muscle endpoint seems very reasonable. 2 pounds of muscle, that's a gift. They are basically asking it to do something, not everything.
I like the common shares much more than the warrants at these levels. This seems like a great time to add, and I picked up some more shares the other day. 1.20's is a gift. The market is not patient, I love situations like this. The same people selling now will be coming back in a few months when data nears again, or if we get an earlier gift from one of their early phase trials.
Bottom line, no trials halted, no unforeseen side effects disclosed now that a lot of patients should be complete... not a bad waiting game.
I've done ok on a few other things lately, I'm keeping some cash in case market pressure arises, maybe I could get some 1.1's shares if so.
I doubt earlier phase news will do much for share price, long term at least. most people know that it is going to be feast or slaughter when hip data comes. I don't think earlier phase stuff will make anyone want to hold this through hip data that otherwise isn't holding already, so any gains on earlier phase stuff will be transient if it occurs. I will start selling my common if we get earlier phase updates that give us a boost, if they come very soon.
Another thing to consider. Yeah it's undervalued, hugely. And totally unknown, which is fine by me. I was nervous for how to play this when I originally thought that we'd get hip data in march. Holding on good hip data that came in march would be tricky, that's a long time to wait for lipid news, a lot of people would jump ship and take gains. If we get hip data in august, or even better... September, we could pop on good data, and day traders would be very likely to hold into oct/nov, waiting to sell before lipid phase two. That would create a phenomenal 1-2 punch. It's an absolute best case scenario in my book. I would sell some in late oct before the data dip, and buy back when it dips just before lipid data. unless the hip data is phenomenal... then I'd ride it as close to the wire as possible before selling some. I honestly can't remember the last time a company was set to report two phase 2's in that short of time frame, at least one that wasn't monster cap and insanely overvalued.
So yeah, I'm bored waiting, but much more excited for later this year.
Hope that helps.
Have a good one!
Waffles
Been incredibly busy with side stuff, will put a decent reply soon to your questions. Re warrants, would strongly recommend getting some today at .40, and getting whatever you can below .40 moving forward. My cost avg is around .37, you could buy some at .40 and put limit orders in at .37 and .35 and see what you can get there.
Very good sign to see us holding on extremely low recent trading volume. A good indicator that we will begin moving higher when volume picks up in the next month.
GLTA