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When you are in debt and almost out of money you don't have the luxury of being able to run on speculation.
Per FishyFingers, the run to near $10 should now begin!
Hold on to your hats!
"If RI succeeds at final, you pretty much guarantee to 5x the current price, right? So even if there is the slightest remote chance of early stop for efficacy, how do you not take this chance now, knowing that you are at least fifty fifty to 5x your money in 2 years?"
Don't ask me that. Ask the market that. And major institutional investors. And the BB. And Abingworth. And Camber. And Stonepoine. Etc.
And I am not throwing out blind numbers for your own enjoyment. I do not know the odds of success at the end. I personally believe the trial may result in mixed results that aren't clear cut. I don't see things as black and white as many of you.
Well you falsely think that no interim stop immediately means the drug is working. All no interim stop tells us is that the drug may show a benefit at the final readout. No interim stop does not mean the drug will be a success at final readout. If that was the case, every drug that wasn't stopped at interim and continued would have succeed, and that is surely not the case. So your whole basis that everyone will know that 15% or higher efficacy is guaranteed is just plain wrong.
And CPXX raised money after the stock absolutely exploded. This is a lot different from AMRN having to raise money under $2 a share. Again, there is absolutely nothing in common to compare CPXX to AMRN.
So I don't really know what your point is. As each day passes their cash dwindles further, exacerbating the need for more money, which only puts more pressure on them to raise the money. Once the no stop at interim is announced then things could get ugly since all that will then matter is raising money. But the terms of that dilution will be horrible so it is unlikely to be considered any sort of positive.
No interim stop equals failure? Why do you say that? I never said fail, I said no interim stop. Big difference.
The PPS is not going anywhere until AMRN addresses how they survive until Reduce-It results. Right now that is all that investors care about. It is a huge huge overhang on shares. Unfortunately they have waited too long to address it. And it is going to hurt shareholders mightily. Then, and only then, can focus then shift to Reduce-It results in two years from now.
Of course an interim stop changes everything but given what is perceived to be a small probability of this happening, it is being ignored by investors. Rightly so since the balance sheet is much more pressing.
I never said it couldn't be stopped. However, I, along with the rest of the market, find it highly unlikely. Not to mention it is better for the company if it isn't stopped. In my opinion there is nothing that is pointing to a stop. Not price action, not management rhetoric, not "tea leaves". No insider buys that are significant. Lack of significant institutional buying. Lack of even a 4% stockholder. Nothing. Everything points to a continuation and another round of huge financing. Hence $1.50 a share. But I do agree that no one knows the actual % chance of a stop. NO ONE.
Fundamental flaws in the models people are using to make these predictions. Incomplete data or information concerning enrollment or trial design and faulty assumptions could contribute to inaccurate predictions of results. With such a dynamic complex trial it is quite difficult to make accurate predictions. Mechanics of the trial is not well understood by us. Timetables on when things happen are unknown. Unknown unknowns that can't be thought of as of yet but may become apparent later on.
A myriad of reasons that these quick and dirty models people are running might not be accurate.
Mog wrong again.....oh hum...my prediction was total garbage! Just trying to spread fear around here.
Don't forget about a run to near $10 after 967 is announced but before the interim result is announced.
Yep, because look at how the stock ran per the recent "good news" of court wins!
And scripts have been going higher. At the same time the stock is going lower. And you think a dilution at $1.50 a share is going to rally the stock?
The thought of "low volume professional accumulation" is so funny I can't stop laughing! Meanwhile institutional ownership is only going down.
This board is completely out of touch with reality and lives in some fantasy world. This post exemplifies it.
I was only addressing the comparison of CPXX and AMRN. The whole "CPXX went from $1.50 to $12 so AMRN can easily do that too". These are not equal comparisons since it is much easier for a low float stock to explode than a high float stock. The fewer outstanding shares that exist constricts supply. Furthermore, it is much easier for a stock to go from a $60m valuation to a $360m valuation than it is for a $300m valuation stock to go to a $1.8b valuation stock. I trust I don't need to explain why that is the case. AMRN's horrible balance sheet and huge number of outstanding shares is going to really put a lid on any huge upward move. Way too much supply to churn through so a CPXX move would be extremely difficult.
And cancer drugs are quite lucrative, don't kid yourself.
There is no point in comparing CPXX to AMRN. They really have very little in common.
CPXX has under 40m shares outstanding and their current market cap is still under $500m. At $10 a share for AMRN you are looking at a $2b valuation. That is 4 times the current market cap of CPXX.
No, you don't "give away 90%". Let's just say they partnered 50/50. So AMRN owns 50% of the company going forward. So if it grows to your $10b mark, AMRN still owns $5b worth. See HGSI as an example.
We had posters on here questioning those of us on here who kept saying if things had been dong right and AMRN partnered correctly, V could be expanded to other indications. Posters responded with "what indications besides DES!?" as the criticism of that belief.
Confirmed.
I am not considering the possibility of an interim stop. I think the company should be going with the assumption it won't be stopped. That is proper risk management and business. If it is stopped it should just be considered a major plus but definitely not relied upon in ANY way. I think the odds of a stop are really low, so there is no point considering it happening. If it does, it is just a huge positive. If it isn't, then reality moves forward.
So we both agree, financing is needed. You can hope for an interim stop all day, good for you. But soon reality will set in and the long haul starts.
Let me also get this straight. You are actually buying more shares, purely because I post on this message board? I mean holy cow batman. That is some crazy stuff!
The stock was $2.40 when I first started posting here. And I will refer to you to a previous post from February where we had a poster who was sure my presence meant the stock was about to skyrocket:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=120763165
No, I don't. I have been told repeatedly by many many posters there is a 0% chance of a buyout or partnership before REDUCE-IT results are in. Which is 2018.
Every biotech company has a page saying the same thing! Give me a break.
Nothing you list there can save this company from needing a lot more money. A china payment? Are you serious? You think a China payment is going to be enough to stave off dilution and allow them to fund operations for the next 2-3 years?! The burned over $90m last year, and $15m of that was from the China partnership. Any "China payment" will be evaporated quickly. Plus there is no sign of any progress or milestone anytime soon. I am guessing the next milestone would be China approval (I can't think of anything else that would trigger a payment). And China approval is nowhere close.
The note wasn't a dilution, but a small little weak band aid. And it exemplifies the need for financing. It bought AMRN a month or two but the problem is still fully intact.
It doesn't matter if they lower the cash burn. There is NOT ENOUGH MONEY to make it to 2018-2019. Not even close. Not to mention debt will be coming due during that time period as well.
The need for money is the most obvious, easily calculated, non controversial, straight forward issue with this stock. It is seriously just simple math and basic business. I still can't get my head around why it is so controversial to accept they need a lot of money.
I said $90m before they raised $11.0 million from the issuance and extinguishment of debt. Without that they would have been at $96m at end of year instead of $107m. Considering the quarterly cash burn they are now under $100m as of today.
I never said it couldn't be the next one. I didn't even bring up CPXX, Raf and you brought it up as a sign that AMRN is next. My point is that CPXX has nothing to do with AMRN and the odds of picking a single stock to make that move up are very low. Stocks move like that yes, but to pick one to do that is really really hard. CPXX has no bearing on AMRN's future success or non-success.
By that same token I can bring up THLD and say look at that. I hope you all realize that for every CPXX there are many THLDs. This is another example of confirmation bias. Similar to how at the end of every quarter people post about how awesome it was that some fund bought AMRN but they ignore the three other funds that sold AMRN.
Speaking of CPXX, see what a well timed secondary can do?
Spike 25% on news of private placement. I had said back when this was well above $2 that if they diluted and removed the financial overhang, then focus could shift to REDUCE-IT and the stock may very well move up. It moved up after the Baker Bros private placement as well, again, because that removed the overhang of needed cash.
Well that time is now gone and we have a stock that will be going nowhere and they will be forced to dilute at horrible horrible prices, and this time the stock won't be going up afterwards. Management will show once again wrong choices are their forte.
90 days? 1A is 6 months old?
And I heard the same stuff with Kowa. Just give Kowa some time to get integrated and learn Vascepa. Then sales will soar! Kowabunga!
How long are people going to keep saying "just wait for 1A effect"?? Geez just continuing to say it isn't going to change reality! 1A has been a NON-FACTOR so far. We are well over 3 years into launch with less than 20% market share. And people are still clinging to this idea that it is automatically just gonna change and all the sudden hockey stick growth will be among us? There is no major script growth. AMRN has no resources to complete that. Kowa is a joke. End of story.
I have said first half of this year for financing consistently. No change there. I said it could come anytime before then as well. But they are under $100m which is the time to raise more money.
As for CPXX, that is like saying my neighbor won $100,000 in the lottery so that means I am going to win $100,000 in the lottery. It is faulty logic. Moves like CPXX happen, but they are very very rare that to extrapolate that to "next it will be me" is pretty foolish.
You think it won't be an immediate need? Projections are $30m in cash by year's end. The situation needs to be resolved within the next few months at the absolute latest. I still expect something before June 30.
The need for immediate financing will put a quick cap to any sort of rise.
Well, his post from yesterday got deleted due to its tone, so I am the one that needs to take it down a notch? He said the stock was well on its way to 1.70 and then on to 2 due to his expertise in technical analysis. This person also said once 967 is announced this will trade close to $10 before the interim announcement is made.
I guess you are more OK with people posting baseless fantasies and not OK with people calling them out on it?
At least I was able to capitalize $150 from HD due to these fantasies!
FishyFingers....1.70 and then go 2.00...when again?
Yesterday (and the day before as well) you made a post about you are the one who truly understands "technical analysis" and you stood by how AMRN was about to go to 1.70 and then up to 2. The post was in a mocking tone and tried to convey how knowledgeable you were. When was that rise supposed to start again???
Thanks!
haha...people have been calling for that handle for YEARS.
Nice call
So you think an 8 cent rise in the stock price "scared them away"? Ha...funny.
I think at this point everything that could have been discussed has been discussed. Many many times. I mean people on here are STILL arguing over placebo rates and Jelis. The same mindless discussion over and over. At some point it just gets old.
Nothing about management ineptness has changed in the last several days. And some people actually have lives and the AMRN message board is not the focal point of their life.
But if you listen to some people on here post, management and the board's job is not to raise the PPS. The PPS is irrelevant. And the PPS is outside of their control.
AMRN management is inept and CANNOT negotiate to save their lives It isn't that complicated.
Yeah, because AMRN's decline is just a recent phenomenon, right? If only it hadn't been on a consistent downtrend for the last year, despite all these "court wins" and "growing scripts"!
Since we are picking arbitrary dates to judge stock performance, how much is it down from where it was in May 2011? Certainly a longer period to look at compared to "the last month".
Congrats on your 10% over the last month. The 50% decline over the last year notwithstanding.
Wouldn't surprise me if any day within the next few weeks we just wake up to the 8-K (possibly a PR as well) that the trial continues.
You have zero concept of business and risk management.
But MAJOR dilutions at this "90% discounted value" are perfectly A-OK in your book?
AMRN would be sold for scraps. We are talking 10-20 cents. If RI failes, this company has no way to pay it's debt, no way to start other indications, no money to invest into marketing. It will be a dead company, ala DNDN.
First, Vascepa isn't done. All depends on what the failure means. Was it because Vascepa was harmful compared to no Vascepa? Then maybe. If it shows say a slight benefit that isn't statistically significant, then of course it is not done. There are other indications that have nothing to do with CV risk!!! The >500 trig group is not for CV risk reduction to begin with! But based on what AMRN has created, AMRN will be done if REDUCE-IT isn't approved.
And if the choice is A) 100%, with the risk that if REDUCE-IT fails the company is done, compared to B) 50% but with still value remaining if REDUCE-IT fails, I will take B every time. 100% of 0 is still 0.