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Lewrock
Battle engaged. Brave is being kind. Certainly not Braveheart brave.
35k on the bid. Yeah, baby. The worm has turned.
KCCO,
Some more fun with numbers using higher net margins and share price for every $500MM in expected revenue:
40% - $90/share
50% - $114/share
$5B in revenue seems conservative for ubiquity position in a $30B-$50B target market. $1,000/share? Let's push this snowball downhill.
Yes the 12 month revenue guidance will drive the share price. Once they hit a couple of quarters earnings with confirmed margins and ongoing guidance it will be even more parabolic.
Every $500MM in revenue is $68/share assuming 30% net profit margin and 50 PE ($150MM net income divided by 110MM shares outstanding = $1.36/share x 50 PE).
It is all about the revenue ramp. So $100/share would equate to about $750MM in revenue in 2025. Personally, with 2 foundries producing 24+ months and other 3 foundries in production at least for 12+ months by 2025 (and ubiquity confirmed in a $30B-$50B target market), I would expect revenue in 2025 to be much much higher.
This is why revenue guidance will be so critical once foundry deals are announced.
Great KCCO!
Digging their own grave as it were.
KCCO,
I pass out when moving beyond my minimum net margin assumption :)
Pilotguy,
It is all about the revenue ramp (hockey stick). Every $500MM in revenue is roughly $68/share assuming 50 P/E and 30% net profit margin.
Jeunke,
I assume this is why Lebby is stating yields are excellent?
Matty, thanks. May need to hire this person away from Pfizer. They have a Denver office. University of Colorado has a pharmacy degree. LWLG shares are a great sweetener.
https://pharmacy.cuanschutz.edu/research/core-facilities/computational-chemistry-and-biology-core-facility
Yes, should clarify I meant not just these three but in culmination. LWLG has broken through the purple wall and then Lebby is sealing it behind him. "None shall pass!" Unless of course you pay the toll.
These incremental foundry focused patents are probably why Lebby upped the ante from "freedom of manufacturing" to ubiquitous !
Forztnt,
Always look forward to your patent updates.
I would bet he still has LWLG shares so will get upside benefit and with new gig he is probably getting a meaningful equity stake.
GP, wrong again. Please refer to below from PR. I think you know scale is synonymous with and achieved by fabricating and integrating into large silicon foundries.
The impact of the technology disclosed in the published patent application is significant in that it will accelerate the path for very high-speed, low-power electro-optic polymers to be implemented into large foundry process development kits (PDKs) to boost performance of integrated photonic circuits.
Dr. Michael Lebby, Chief Executive Officer of Lightwave Logic, commented: "This patent application conveys the world-class work being done at Lightwave Logic. This significantly increased performance from a chemistry and materials standpoint allows us to keep our focus on partnering with silicon foundries and seamlessly integrating our electro-optic polymers.
"In technical terms, this chromophore is important because it represents a class of materials that has extraordinary electroptic properties such as high poling efficiency and high r33. Importantly for silicon foundry applications, it is a high Tg material that exhibits ultra-high temporal stability at high chromophore loading in the bulk material, all while maintaining other essential properties like solubility and compatibility with many types of polymers. This is due to its unique structural components.
"The elegance of this materials chemistry design is perfect for integrated photonics that can be fabricated in large silicon foundries. The impact of being able to optimize our designs is clear: the potential to not only to increase data flow and data traffic on the internet, but to create energy-efficient solutions that help to support the increasingly data-heavy lifestyle of today's consumer. This exciting development positions us well as we seek to grow our relationships with partners and potential customers in 2022," concluded Lebby.
Great work as always Forztnt. From LWLG press release dated 1/3/22 maybe this applies to poling? Lebby is beyond a 10 in happiness! Seamlessly integrating into foundries and open to buying patents as Lebby stated during SHM. Will be utilized for DECADES!!!
Published Patent Application to Improve Stability and Performance of Lightwave's Proprietary Polymers for Internet-Based Applications with Silicon Foundry Partners
ENGLEWOOD, Colo., Jan. 3, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- Lightwave Logic, Inc. (NASDAQ: LWLG), a technology platform company leveraging its proprietary electro-optic polymers to transmit data at higher speeds with less power, today announced the publication of its patent application 20210405504A1 by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) - entitled 'Nonlinear Optical Chromophores Having a Diamondoid Group Attached Thereto, Methods of Preparing the Same, and Uses Thereof' - which significantly improves the overall stability and performance of the Company's electro-optic polymers.
The materials chemistry invention is to advance the performance of the Company's electro-optic chromophores and their use in high-speed electro-optical modulators, which are designed to drive data rates 2-3x faster and with 2-3x lower power than incumbent technologies in-use today.
Specifically, the chromophores are designed to have one or more diamondiod molecular groups attached to the chromophore. When such chromophores are dispersed in a host polymer matrix, the electro-optic materials result in improved macroscopic electro-optic properties, increased poling efficiency, increased loading as well as increased stability of these materials after poling.
The impact of the technology disclosed in the published patent application is significant in that it will accelerate the path for very high-speed, low-power electro-optic polymers to be implemented into large foundry process development kits (PDKs) to boost performance of integrated photonic circuits.
Dr. Michael Lebby, Chief Executive Officer of Lightwave Logic, commented: "This patent application conveys the world-class work being done at Lightwave Logic. This significantly increased performance from a chemistry and materials standpoint allows us to keep our focus on partnering with silicon foundries and seamlessly integrating our electro-optic polymers.
"In technical terms, this chromophore is important because it represents a class of materials that has extraordinary electroptic properties such as high poling efficiency and high r33. Importantly for silicon foundry applications, it is a high Tg material that exhibits ultra-high temporal stability at high chromophore loading in the bulk material, all while maintaining other essential properties like solubility and compatibility with many types of polymers. This is due to its unique structural components.
"The elegance of this materials chemistry design is perfect for integrated photonics that can be fabricated in large silicon foundries. The impact of being able to optimize our designs is clear: the potential to not only to increase data flow and data traffic on the internet, but to create energy-efficient solutions that help to support the increasingly data-heavy lifestyle of today's consumer. This exciting development positions us well as we seek to grow our relationships with partners and potential customers in 2022," concluded Lebby.
https://www.lightwavelogic.com/news-events-presentation/press-releases/#b2iLibScrollTo1
Lewrock,
Agree. I think they didn't see a 7:31am cst press release and knew Friday is likely a no press release day so they are playing a very desperate game before next week.
Listen again to SHM. Short report is filled with lies by established ethically bankrupt organization. How do you have excellent foundry yields if material is unreliable or not repeatable in production? Who you choose to inform your investment decisions and not to be taken lightly.
You should listen to SHM. Yields are excellent is specifically what Lebby said. I added more. Thank you shorts.
Thanks PG! Love it! Michael stepped up and out with "concrete" goals and continued confidence of ubiquity.
Rfk,
Really thankful to be invested here. I could.have not asked for more in the presentation.
Agree. Yes. I believe he was speaking from experience. There are 7 foundries they are working with so somebody goofed. It is not suprising given complexity and new stuff. I think of McDonald's trying make a hamburger taste the same no matter where you go. Takes a lot of teaching and QC oversight.
And Lebby said you could double to 60x if you wanted to squeeze it in. Amazing.
Lebby flat out said foundries made mistakes so enter John Z to keep an eye on things. I expect growing pains as this is new and complicated stuff and foundries should not be making the same mistake twice. Millions of units girding the internet demand perfection. A little pain now to get to hockey stick growth once the switch is flipped. 2H22 a little over 30 days away.
I agree. I know it is guessing but he is sandbagging.
I was very pleased with the presentation as Lebby heard the feedback on guidance and delivered as much as he could without violating NDAs. Very satisfying. IMO, it is all about the Foundries slide. 2nd half 2022 is going to be a lot of fun!
See my posts today on GF and another on Ayar Labs. The photonics market is very hot as Lebby stated many times. I did not count how many times he said ubiquitous, but reinforced the breadth and generational opportunity of this investment.
GLTAL!!!!
Exactly. Fotonix baby. Same timeline from GF
Make that 7 foundries
Yes! So that means a minimum of 4 foundries, A, B, C, D
GlobalFoundries Finally Hits Its Stride On The Road Not Taken
https://www.forbes.com/sites/tiriasresearch/2022/05/24/globalfoundries-finally-hits-its-stride-on-the-road-not-taken/?sh=3fa5e731645a
Dr. Tom Caufield became CEO of semiconductor supplier GlobalFoundries (GF) early in 2018, announced that the company was dropping its plans to develop a leading-edge 7nm process technology five months later, and then took the company public late in 2021. Saying that it’s been a busy few years for Caufield seems like an understatement. During his keynote last week at the GlobalFoundries Technology Summit (GTS), Caufield was crystal clear about what GF’s goal is: to be the chip foundry for the rest of us.
Along the journey, Caufield and GF have developed a bit of magic for transforming what others view as commodity semiconductor process nodes into seven unique process platforms that serve the diverse chipmaking needs for a wide variety of customers. Of the 126 end markets for semiconductors with a $170 billion foundry Total Addressable Market (TAM) that GF has identified, the company decided to focus on and serve only 30 of these end markets and ignore the rest, which reduces the TAM by 30% and results in a Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM) of about $120 billion. Given that GF’s annual revenue is currently around $6 billion, there’s still plenty of headroom available for growth with that smaller SAM.
The seven semiconductor process platforms allow GF to stand apart from other semiconductor foundries through clearly differentiated offerings in these selected end markets, which include smart mobile devices, home and industrial IoT, automotive and transportation, communications infrastructure, and data centers. GF’s seven current semiconductor platforms are:
28nm, 40nm, 55nm, and 130nm Planar CMOS (Complementary Metal-Oxide Semiconductor), the workhorse process technology for digital applications
12nm and 14nm FinFET (Fin-shaped Field Effect Transistor) for high-speed digital applications
22nm FDX (an FD-SOI (Fully Depleted Silicon On Insulator) process) for low-power applications
45nm, 90nm, 130nm, and 180nm RF SOI (Radio Frequency SOI)) for applications such as 5G and automotive radar
45nm and 90nm SiPh (Silicon Photonics) for high-speed optical interconnect in data centers
45nm, 90nm, and 130nm SiGE (Silicon Germanium) for high-frequency, RF, and power applications
Wide Bandgap (200nm gallium nitride and, in the future, silicon carbide) for high-power applications such as motor control and automotive
From a purely lithographic perspective, even the most advanced of these platforms is years old. However, it’s the add-on semiconductor process modules that GF has developed to enhance these semiconductor platforms that really make these offerings stand out. For example, the company offers a BCDLite module for the 55nm and 130nm nodes in its planar CMOS platform. BCD (bipolar-CMOS-DMOS) combines bipolar, CMOS, and DMOS (Double-Diffused MOS) transistors on one chip for diverse power applications, including audio amplifiers, power management, cellular and WiFi RF power amplifiers, interface circuitry, and battery charging. According to a press release dated November 4, 2020, “five of the seven leading top-tier smartphones currently on the market” incorporate GF chips manufactured with the company’s 55nm BCDLite process technology.
Nonvolatile MRAM (magnetic RAM) is another unusual add-on module that GF offers for its planar CMOS and FDX semiconductor process platforms. MRAM harkens back to the early days of computing when computers stored programs and data in magnetic core memory. Core memory came onto the scene in 1953, but it essentially vanished overnight when Intel introduced the first practical semiconductor DRAM, the 1103, in late 1970. Today, MRAM applied as a thin film layer atop planar FET circuitry promises to help fast, magnetic, nonvolatile storage make a comeback, at least in certain markets. MRAM is an important embedded non-volatile memory alternative to embedded flash, especially for 28nm process nodes and below where it becomes difficult to scale Flash memory.
GF’s SiPH semiconductor process platform for developing and manufacturing silicon photonics devices is another differentiated GF offering and the company formally announced its second-generation GF Fotonix platform in March of this year. Devices manufactured with the GF Fotonix processes combine photonic emitters and detectors, silicon optical waveguides, RF components, and high-performance CMOS logic on one silicon die. In addition, GF has developed advanced optical packaging using anisotropic etching to create precise V grooves that simplify passive alignment and attachment of optical fibers directly to the silicon die.
So far, photonics has been an expensive cottage industry, but these GF innovations promise to drive down the cost of using integrated silicon photonics at the system level, which will in turn drive demand and usage for photonics. Silicon photonics is potentially a game-changing technology for data centers, which are already adopting optical interconnections for high-speed links among servers at 200 Gbps and above. The recent GF Fotonix announcement mentions collaborative work on silicon photonics with Ayar Labs, Broadcom, Cisco Systems, Lightmatter, Marvell, NVIDIA, PsiQuantum, Ranovus, and Xanadu, which indicates the broad potential use of silicon photonics in networking, AI, and quantum computing applications.
Similarly, GF announced a radio frequency (RF) meta platform called the GF Connex portfolio during GTS. GF Connex encompasses elements of the company’s RF SOI, FDX (FD-SOI), SiGe, and FinFET platforms to meet the varied RF needs of smart mobile and IoT devices and communications infrastructure equipment. According to the announcement made during GTS, products based on GF Connex are in the market today through GF’s collaborations with Broadcom, Fujikura, MediaTek, Orca Systems, and Skyworks.
The semiconductor industry’s well-publicized and very expensive quest for smaller and smaller device geometries has been a one-dimensional effort in the much larger, largely unexplored, multi-dimensional world of silicon capabilities. The many add-on modules that GF offers across multiple semiconductor process platforms – such as nonvolatile memory (Flash, MRAM, and RRAM or “resistive RAM”) and high-speed and high-voltage bipolar transistors – augment each platform’s capabilities with additional features including RF, high-voltage and high-power drivers, and analog power amplification. The second-generation GF Fotonix platform and GF Connex portfolio are excellent examples of GF’s quest to bring additional value to existing semiconductor nodes by collaborating with its customers to develop and align specific platform features and add-on process modules more closely with customer requirements.
“We meet our customers where they are,” said Caufield during his GTS keynote speech. In contrast to the “smaller is better” approach taken by other semiconductor foundries, GF’s approach creates myriad new and unique foundry process technologies with much lower development and CAPEX (capital expenditure) costs. Coincidentally, GF’s seven-platform approach dovetails nicely with the current trend towards using chiplets to build packaged devices with more capabilities than can be achieved with monolithic ICs.
However, the new semiconductor processes alone are not usable without tool support. You can’t make what you can’t design. During GTS, GF emphasized its PDKs (Process Design Kits), developed in collaboration with the major semiconductor EDA players including Cadence, Siemens EDA (formerly Mentor Graphics), and Synopsys. Without these PDKs, it’s impossible to predict how the silicon will behave after fabrication and the challenge is complicated by the unique components that GF includes in its platform add-on modules. These complex PDKs are significant differentiators for GF and go well beyond the mere offering of the company’s silicon offerings.
During his keynote, Caufield made a few observations driven by current events. With respect to the current semiconductor shortages, he said “We will be chasing capacity for the better part of the next decade.” Much of the current semiconductor shortage affecting industries such as automotive and industrials have been in the same semiconductor process nodes that GF offers, which presents a significant and immediate growth opportunity for the company. Consequently, GF has started a building program for its existing fabs with the intent of boosting current manufacturing capacity by 60% over the next few years, which seems quite timely, for now at least. It remains to be seen whether the massive fab building programs initiated by the major semiconductor foundries and IDMs will continue to lag demand or whether they’ll trigger another bust cycle.
Caufield also noted today’s geographic uncertainties with respect to the semiconductor supply chain. Citing GF’s global fab footprint – the company has semiconductor fabs in the US, Germany, and Singapore – Caufield said that semiconductor manufacturing needs a global footprint to ensure a secure supply chain. “There are only five foundries left to do the lifting,” said Caufield, and he clearly intends to keep GF in the game and in that league of five through the company’s differentiated semiconductor platforms and increased manufacturing capacity.
a bit better now
Anybody else having bad audio?
Nvidia teams up with optical chip startup Ayar Labs to advance AI hardware
https://siliconangle.com/2022/05/25/nvidia-teams-optical-chip-startup-ayar-labs-advance-ai-hardware/
Nvidia Corp. has inked a technology partnership with Ayar Labs Inc., a startup developing optical chips that promise to increase the speed and efficiency of data center infrastructure.
The partnership was announced today, just a few weeks after Nvidia backed a $130 million funding round for the startup. The chipmaker was joined in the round by several other tech giants, including Intel Corp., which participated through its Intel Capital investment arm. Ayar Labs has raised a total of $194.7 million since launch.
Nvidia will work with Ayar Labs to develop new artificial intelligence infrastructure offerings based on the startup’s optical chip technology. In particular, the companies are hoping to build “scale-out architectures enabled by high-bandwidth, low-latency and ultra-low-power optical-based interconnects.” An interconnect is a technology that links together multiple separate chips.
Linking together chips is essential for many enterprise AI use cases. With the help of an interconnect, a company can connect multiple graphics cards with one another and use them to run its AI software faster than would be possible using a single processor.
The speed of an interconnect directly influences the performance of the AI hardware that it powers. The faster data can travel between the chips in an AI environment, the faster processing is carried out.
Ayar Labs has developed a new interconnect technology that it says is significantly faster than existing products. Usually, an interconnect transmits data between the chips that it links together in the form of electricity. Ayar Labs’ technology transmits data in the form of light to increase performance.
The startup provides its technology in the form of a module called TeraPHY that can be built into processors such as graphics cards. A single TeraPHY module is capable of transmitting 2 terabits of data per second, according to Ayar Labs. The startup says that its technology can provide up to 1,000 times more bandwidth than traditional interconnects using one tenth the power.
“Over the past decade, Nvidia-accelerated computing has delivered a million-X speedup in AI,” said Rob Ober, the chief platform architect for data center products at Nvidia. “The next million-X will require new, advanced technologies like optical I/O to support the bandwidth, power and scale requirements of future AI and ML workloads and system architectures.”
As part of the partnership, the companies plan not only to collaborate on product development but also to accelerate adoption of optical chip technology. The AI infrastructure market is only one of several areas where Nvidia could potentially apply optical interconnects. Ayar Labs says that its TeraPHY module can help improve performance in cloud data centers and supercomputing environments, which both represent major focus areas for Nvidia.
Not sure if this is manipulation but level 2 looks like accumulation and people trying to get on the rocket before it blasts off. Offsetting bid ask volume etc. May be some dark pool.
First time Lebby has mentioned commercial deployments in a press release. Must be pretty close. Agree with others that this is likely based on foundry piloting and testing.
Gap filled. EOM
From Lebby interview, I take "will become" as an affirmative statement of inevitability. Words have meaning. Exciting week ahead!!!
"The same level of popularity will happen with our electro-optic polymers at Lightwave Logic. Our modulators that switch light will also become ubiquitous. Our job at Lightwave Logic is to make the polymers assessable to everyone."
GlobalFoundries to buy rest of Luther Forest when it builds second fab
https://www.timesunion.com/business/amp/GlobalFoundries-to-buy-rest-of-Luther-Forest-when-17181777.php
Business must be very good
Proto, from the interview
The same level of popularity will happen with our electro-optic polymers at Lightwave Logic. Our modulators that switch light will also become ubiquitous. Our job at Lightwave Logic is to make the polymers assessable to everyone.