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Esign: I just looked carefully through their site for the first time. Incredible services. We have not spent very much time addressing the profitability, cost to use, and potential, both long term and short term. Is anyone familiar enough with esign to give a little info on income potential over the next year or two. Is esign just a way to bring more clients into the Wave fold? Will it be highly profitable on its own?
Your optimistic point of view is pretty in line with my beliefs. After 10 years I think this definitely feels different. Again, I am always right, at least 10 percent of the time.
Weby, you are right in that I am looking at forward looking earnings. If you read the analysts, they are always justifying a price as being "twenty times next years projected earnings" as an example. As long as the rise seems assured and probable they may base the price on the following years earnings. That being said, I also agree that this year HP will need to ramp up, but as soon as their next years numbers look to be certain, the SP will start to value those earnings.
About 60 million in revenue will get us the 36 million we need to get to >50 cents in earnings. That assumes about 6 million a quarter in expenses. If I am off I believe it would be by one quarter only. 60 million is not much for us considering encrypted hard drives will make up over 40% of hard drives in 2011, DOD, HP, Acer, and many pilots with the Dow 100 in progress. Our base between Dell and HP should be about 40 million in revenues by themselves. (add in Acer, Lenovo, etc if you feel more comfortable). Add HAP if you feel brave and can let the reality of those numbers sink in.
There has been lots of talk about valuation and how the share price may be getting ahead of itself. I strongly disagree. If you make just a few educated guesses and then use accepted valuation multipliers we will shortly be considered grossly undervalued.
Our current earnings at slightly over 20% growth gives us about a forty million dollar year. A surprise like HP adds about 20 million a year. At 60 million we are over .50 cents per share earnings. At just 30 times forward looking earnings (way low for a stock with income rising close to 100% a year) and you have a SP of $15. I consider this very realistic and easy to achieve. If this quarter gives us at least 7 million and we get over 8.5 million on the next quarter we should be at that 15 level since the earnings growth trend is becoming more predictable the longer it stays steady or increases.
I would be interested in any feedback showing me any mistakes I might have made.
Dory, I was looking for used Alfa spiders on Ebay and two days ago also started looking at Ferrari's. I couldn't stop laughing when I read your post.
I was just thinking the same. HP and Lenovo. Nice.
Yahoo Finance shows 8% institutional ownership. I am running out the door but first glance seems to be we have ticked up.
Chance, great work. Everyone should see.eom
Someone decided to take a nice profit and sold quite a few shares.
Oops. I think somebody must have peeked behind the curtain.
Nice volume! Nice start.Up 14 cents
This chart thing, resistance levels, going up or down today depending on the wind, gets old. This stock is moving because of a trend of increasing earnings, incredible positioning in an emerging industry that is finally being noticed, and profits. Please try to understand that a chart only reflects some of these things and the herds perception about them. Try to figure out how many companies are in pilots, how many seats may come from those pilots, how many encrypted hard drives will ship in 2011 times $7.50 and what HP bundling alone will do to Waves bottom line. You can do your own chart (hint-it will go up at an incredible angle).
Great stats. Nice to see on paper.
If the last minute volume on Friday picks up where it left off it should be an interesting week. Lots of new information here, courtesy of our wavoid community.
Dabears, you are on fire. Your recent posts are not letting me sleep at night. I have not seen this HP pricing posted. It doesn't mean it hasn't, I just have not seen it. I think it would have been cause for lots of excitement if it had. Thanks
Buying coming in, I think you will be low.
Nice late night reading. Thanks. eom
Margin is ok ONLY if you don't mind going down and depositing cash for the shares you purchased. I learned this the hard way years ago. Now I bought a few thousand on margin knowing that it was likely going to require cash. They put a seven day hold on new funds but give immediate credit when covering margin. The things I do to fulfill my addiction. Oh well.
Maybe SKS could tell us about HP or the Govt. right about now.
After hours shows $2.50
To all the chart talk I say, nonsense. This stock is moving on news and perception of news and future earnings. Give me any chart and I will draw some lines and then after I figure out an explanation for the pattern after the fact, will explain them to you.
To all of us that have been in for very long times. I read over and over about how we were just way early in our purchases and how it was a mistake. Let me point out a fallacy that no one has brought up. I now have a giant position in Wave. If I had started to purchase Wave this year, as smart as it seems, I never could or would have accumulated a tenth of the shares I have now. This only could have occurred over the ten years I have been in. So, I was not an early buyer but a slow, steady accumulator. I feel great. I think this is really important. It's like saying i should have sold at fifty. Wow, I would have had......... dollars. None of us would have had as many shares as we do if not for the time period.
Wave on a Friday before a potential huge news week. Anyone think that we will not end up higher than where we are now? A few people locking in trading gains.
Changing times! My financial adviser, who previously told me that he would not manage my stock portfolio unless I vastly reduced my exposure to WAVX,(I refused and he did anyhow), just bought 20,000 shares yesterday! He is from a large main street firm. His rational was that although he would miss the early purchase of cheap shares, over $2 the risk went down tremendously and the financials were showing growth and stability.
Are we having fun yet!eom
Watch the volume. It tells you everything about who is buying!
One thing not discussed enough or appreciated enough is "our intellectual property". I have not analyzed the patents but in each presentation SKS always mentions their importance. I wonder how much of the competition does not arise due due our intellectual property. I imagine it would force many work arounds or alternate paths. Not easy when you are doing catch up and the other company already comes in the box.
The only green on my screen!eom
While I am on a roll. If you continue the same 20 percent growth into 2011 you get 16.5, 19.8, 23.8 and 29 = 87 million for the year) subtract out 7 million burn per quarter or 28 million for 59 million earnings or 80 cents a share. 80 cents times 25 equals 20 dollars a share and of course at 50 times earnings you are looking at an end of 2011 share price of $40. Sooooo, somewhere between 20 and 40 dollars is my by end of 2011 price figured at 25 times the following years forward looking earnings per share. Again this assumed a continuous growth of 20 percent per quarter. You can argue ridiculously high or low depending on your outlook and adjust the numbers accordingly. I hope I have not made any errors but know that if I did I will certainly be called on it and will appreciate the correction. Thanks. Actually, just checking I believe this is the end of 2010 price. The above numbers would be the 2011 quarterly numbers. These would be the forward looking numbers at the end of 2010, therefore I am corrrecting myself and confusing everyone else.
If you take the same numbers but add a 20 percent quarter over quarter growth rate and assuming a 6 milllion quarterly burn, I end up with About .38 cents per share. (8, 9.6, 11.5 and 13.8 for the quarterly = 42 mil. subtract 6 mil times 4 quarters for 24 mill burn= 18 million earnings divided by 73 million shares = .258 cents)At fifty times earnings we get about $13.00. At only twenty five times next years anticipated earnings we would have $6.50 a share current price. Again, the numbers depend on what you input into the formula but I think the $6.50 represents a reasonable current value.
Assuming 2 million divided by 73 milllion shares equals about 2.7 cents profit. Times 4 quarters (assuming no allowance for continued growth) equals 10.8 cents yearly. Times 50 gross multipier(as someone recommended yestderday and is reasonable for a stock growing at our pace) whch gives you a current value of $5.40 cents a share. With the perameters I have chosen, and you can chose your own, isn't this accurate or have I erred? Thanks
If SKS had any news left in his arsenal, today would be a great day to use it. eom
SKS once said that he was concerned that so much business could come in at once that servicing everyone could be a major problem. Hopefully we will all tip our glasses to Steven's big problem. It looks like it could be a reality.
Two seperate large and important events, major companies in trial, Large Govt. contracts looming, the hiring of major public advocates (like Imman), etc, etc, etc. It is a numbers game at this point. So much of a good news pipeline that you can take your pick.
You can't help being blown away by the thought of how close Wave works with the top companies and people in their field and that field is growing fast. We used to worry that Wave was not even notice by the players. Now we certainly are one of the players. Now it is just wait and watch as we are integrated into many top govt projects.
This is disgusting,from the Wall Street Journal today
Drone Breach Stirs Calls to Fill Cyber Post
U.S. lawmakers called on the White House to quickly fill vacant cybersecurity posts in the wake of revelations that Iraqi insurgents have learned to intercept video feeds from unmanned military drones.
It seems to me that a TPM would solve the problem. This has been going on since the 1990"s. The militants have been watching our drone feeds by buying cheap Russian software available to anyone online. Can you imagine. "Hey Bin, that drone looks like it is coming near our village. You better hide".
Unless we get a 8k with NCI on the military win. If an amount is mentioned you get a jump. Verifiable revenue. Those need to be reported I believe a short time after the event occurs. I want to say>>>>three days?
It will be nice to get confirmation that we are involved as their sub in this particular contract and then to find out what piece of the pie we get, if we are involved. Would this be something substantial that Wave would have to at least issue an 8k?
Does anyone believe a short squeeze has recently happened. At what price do you think shorts would start to fear that Wave is not going down and the time to cover is upon them. How much SP appreciation would occur if 80% of them tried to cover in one week. If we had one good announcement at this pint could it be the trigger. Enquiring minds want to know.