with Celsius valuation, Musclepharm should trade at $35.

Either Celsius is overvalued or Musclepharm is undervalued.....or it is a combination of both.

I think the last is the case for now. Celsius should trade at around $0.5 to $0.75 and Musclepharm should trade at $9.5 to $20.

I'm sorry, but Goldman is not gonna hire those that don't understand financial reports.

http://www.bevnet.com/news/2015/celsius-holdings-inc-reports-full-year-and-fourth-quarter-2014-results

Also, it's spelled Celsius, not Celcius....you know, as an alternative to Fahrenheit we got Celsius.

The company has been in business as long as Musclepharm and it still doesn't sell anything. Rush Simmons might move this in the right direction or he might not.....Surely, there will be a cost getting these distributed....and competing against Red Bull and Monster as your largest competitors, all I can say is good luck with that!

a stock that drops so sharply, from over $14 to less than $3, such a stock can explode if news pushes all the right buttons with investors.

looking at the recent price move for Celsius, that rose more than 500% since January, and the fact that Musclepharm mingles with entrepreneurial billionaires like Phillip Frost and Dan Gilbert...that gives me some hope, that something similar could happen to the Musclepharm stock.

I was referring to mass retail.....not specialty retail.

At specialty retail, it may already be in the top 10 of best selling protein bars, and at hardcore fitness and bodybuilding internet sites it might be in the top 3.

Musclepharm could also seek to penetrate Latin American countries with the Combat Crunch, either through licensing deal or through export from United States.
In these countries protein bars are entirely new concepts...so, there should be some interest for this novelty of a snack product.

In Latin American countries, the market is very open to American and European snack products already...so, it should be relatively easy to succeed there, as one of the first movers.

Musclepharm doesn't need to grow much this year, it grew plenty last year.

If it does, it must be balanced growth between mass and specialty retailing for powders and for protein bars.

Protein bars have not entered mass retail yet and when they do....they could probably add some $20-40 million in additional sales over 12 months (considering the success of Quest and Clif bar).....
Most likely, Musclepharm will look at how much exposure it gets from the Cavaliers sponsorship and then let that determine when to launch the Combat Crunch at mass retail.

Launching a snack bar during the Summer is probably not seen that often....but if the Cavs exposure is good, then Musclepharm has to pull the trigger. As mentioned by Jeff, the exposure at UFC will go away when Reebok's Uniform policy becomes effective in July....so, that will be something that Musclepharm will have to consider.

Down the road, Musclepharm should work on adding protein drinks, amino acid drinks, energy drinks and amino acid powders to mass retail assortment....and selectively add protein powders as well, without offending existing specialty retailers.

Musclepharm should seek to always make a big deal out of next generations products at specialty retailers, Apple style...like: "we added this, we changed that....and this has never been done before"

Jim Stoppani has done all of that, made something not done before, using different blends....

The new Bodybuilding.com brand Grit is trying to do the same: making the audience believe it is getting something special.

Revenue growth is not everything.

It is better to close 2015 with $1 million profit and flat sales, than closing with another $70 million increase in sales, and a fat loss.

Somehow, Musclepharm gotta defend the sales that define it as a company though, like the sales of combat and assault powder products....to an extent that the company doesn't lose relevancy to consumers.

I would not lower the price, but work on the things that convey trust in the market place like quality and more open communication.

Quality is not something that is entirely tangible, but it's intangible as well...like the extent to which your product is endorsed by credible athletes, doctors and nutritional experts as well as backed by credible science.

still, that makes Musclepharm a good investment if it can break even or start posting profits.

$9.5 remains to be my price target for now....if things change in either direction, I might change that price target.

Launch of a scalable Nature Sport line, improved web-site and social media communication as well as contract manufacturing in Mexico and Brazil could change my expectations to revenue.

Brad's as well as your expectations seem to be very optimistic.

My expectation is that the company will sell for $170 to $195 million this year, with only q3 and q4 surpassing last year's revenue numbers.

The stock price will remain undervalued regardless....as there is no way it cannot break even and post minor profits with sales above $170 million per year, regardless of endorsements.

Revenues are under pressure because of protein spiking chatter, the complete lack of exciting and engaging communication and because BB.com is guiding traffic away from Musclepharm products towards Glanbia, Cellucor and new brands....hurting the growth in the short term.

The company has done a lot of right things, but lately it has gotten a little introvert and defensive in it's communication, which has made it drop a little bit in popularity among some customers and partners.

Right now, a realistic price target is $9.5....if Brad really delivered what was promised, hell the stock price would be $20....

UFC fighter Luke Rockhold is the perfect endorser for Musclepharm.

He is sponsored by Musclepharm, but apart from him wearing the MP logo on his shorts and appearing at some expo in London with Musclepharm next month, I see no other plans for his use in the marketing of Musclepharm.

He just beat a Brazilian, meaning he is famous in Brazil....as the Brazilians follow all their UFC stars on television as religiously as they follow their soccer stars.

Luke Rockhold is currently no. 1 in his class, he is a Californian surfer dude, that got into UFC, and apparently he enjoys playing golf too

https://instagram.com/p/2CUvg_IaAw/

From interviews he appears to be quite the communicator with a sense of humor, and quite popular with the ladies.

Also, he is endorser for Adidas MMA, meaning he is already trained in the role of being an endorser professionally....as Nike and Adidas are some of the best in that field. I'm sure his price tag is a little lower than Tiger Woods though, with much more flexible terms of exit as well.

So, I mean....what else can Musclepharm ask for?

I doubt anybody uses cheap Chinese whey as Asia ain't big in dairy products.
The largest dairy producer in China, Yili, got smaller revenues than Danish Arla Foods.....so, a country with less than 6 million population in Europe got larger dairy company than China with 1.3 billion population.

Musclepharm most likely buys from European and American dairy ingredient companies...it could be Glanbia (US, Ireland), Hilmar (US), Arla Foods (Denmark, Germany), Lactalis (France).

the beverage segment has always been a priority for VPX, but the company never made it big in any product category.

What is left now for VPX is a small fraction of the Energy drink market in South Florida as well as some sales through specialty retailers.

If Musclepharm can reach sales of $15 million over the next 12 months, I'm happy....even $6 million revenue would make me happy.

The chance of Musclepharm selling for $50 million the first year is quite unrealistic with the current sales and marketing team and the current financial resources.

Right now, it seems like the company got an edge within the product categories of supplements, powders and protein bars....that are core to it's brand identity, more than RTDs.


Among protein companies, it's only got Cytosport and Premier Protein that sell protein drinks on a larger scale, with both of them being backed by multi billion dollar companies.

Codie, watch this review of Combat Crunch vs Quest bar:

Thnx for contributing with an excellent article.

In the short term, Musclepharm should seek to reach the sales that VPX Sports achieved in 2012. Around $15 million in sales for the Energy Sport drink is a realistic goal within 12 months.

Sales efforts should probably concentrate on Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio as well as the areas that were mentioned in the article you forwarded to us 2 weeks ago. Texas, California, New England and major cities in Florida (Miami, Tampa etc)....

Later on, Musclepharm should of course seek to enter Phoenix, Chicago and other large cities....but initially, focus on the above mentioned markets.

but none of them are as good as Musclepharm's.....and the packaging is outdated and boring....

Kind bars and Combat Crunch, these are the winners within the product category of nutritional bars when it comes to original product and packaging.

Quest is hanging in there, but the brand identity is too feminine imo.

Combat Crunch is the all American snack bar to replace good old Snickers.

A lot of viewers are gonna follow the Cavs against the Bulls in the playoffs....hopefully, this sponsorship is gonna pay off with cameras zooming in on the Combat Crunch banners.

Combat Crunch is a well rounded and tasty product, with flavors that are popular in year 2015...not year 2000.

Combat Crunch is the new Muscle Milk....a product brand that takes the market with storm.

Apart from Kind protein bars, I see no other products with true mass market potential coming from any of the competitors in the protein industry.

Cocotein by Isopure is getting pretty popular...but anything in a fancy glass bottle that ain't vodka or beer ain't gonna make it big in America.

Invest in Campari instead or Grupo Modelo, because that SKYY Vodka and that Modelo beer are both major hits....all because of the glass bottle.

Where are all the sexy girls at Musclepharm?

I don't think sex should be overused in marketing....but, I kind of miss a little more women in the marketing.

The guys are cool and all, but it becomes a little homo when there aren't any girls.

Hell, sexy girls are part of bodybuilding advertising....so, where are they? Also, it's part of all sports, be it football, fighting....having some ladies on the side.
All bros but no chicks?

I wonder how they even sell anything to Latins in places like Brazil, Spain and Italy, that love women so much?

Again, it's human to love women....and it gives the brand more personality, if it included them in the marketing.

Muscle & Strength, VitaminShoppe, GNC, Tiger Fitness, Europa Sports, Costco and Bodybuilding.com....they all seem to have considerable business with Musclepharm.

Musclepharm could almost break even with $30 million quarterly revenue in 2013, so what makes anybody believe it cannot do that in 2015? Certain expenses can be dialed back, some investments will pay off while others are entirely sunk costs, and entirely irreversible. Not all expenses fit the last category though. Even with worst case earnings I still don't see the company going under.

based on what?

it requires a stock price of $8-9 to be done....the sooner with such a stock price, the better.

my conservative number of 1/10 holds water for Q3 and Q4 as well...meaning less than 1/20 debt to sales for the entire year.

$8 million versus $80 million....ain't that good enough for 6 months of sales?

now consider the cost of whey at the rock bottom, the manufacturing costs down and the revenue going up.

$30 million quarterly revenue is kind of a worst case scenario and still the indebtedness ain't appearing too bad when you base your estimate on that highly fictive scenario.

Facts:

Musclepharm's debt to sales is moderate....at around 1/10 based on lowest 2014 quarterly revenue at around $30 million.

Musclepharm has not taken any loans for more than 2 months

Q1 revenues and earnings (loss) better than Q4 revenues and loss.

Cost of goods sold declined per new contract with Capstone Nutrition.

Musclepharm signed deal with Cleveland Cavs.

UK top 50 BB.com list is misleading, providing 1 evidence of BB.com willing to mislead customers in it's marketing

The last numbers disclosed to public cover December 31 which was 4 months ago.

Fact, Musclepharm has disclosed that it is gonna launch a new Nature Sport line later this year and we are unaware of how the final products gonna look like.

It's possible that Nature Sport might become the responsibility of Greg Horn and ultimately contribute with an equal amount of revenue as MP, Arnold Iron and Fitmiss branded products.

Fact is that Utah is the World leader in the field of selling basic broadbased supplements....and Greg Horn has experience in these supplements from his past at GNC.

Fact is that Musclepharm comfortably signed a sponsorship deal with Dan Gilbert last week. Futhermore, Musclepharm has not taken any loans since mid February, where $850,000 of $4 million went to pay for Musclepharm Apparel....and $2.5 million possibly went to Capstone Nutrition.

Also, it's a fact that order volume normalized in Q1, suggesting that sales were in the range of $40-50 million, with any number in that range being a tremendous improvement from Q4.
And, cost of goods sold went down, and the payment terms were improved with new contract manufacturing deal with Capstone Nutrition.

I have a feeling that Musclepharm is expanding with a third SKU at Costco very soon....so, I remain optimistic.

Estalella's comments about Cocoprotein possibly entering Costco this Summer....that was probably more a cover for what really is going on with Costco. Musclepharm doesn't want to let competitors know in advance what it's planning to do.


I have a feeling too, that Nature Sport is gonna look entirely different than anticipated. Musclepharm is gonna move that line in a more mass market direction, competing with Nature's Bounty, Solgar Vitamins, Now Foods, Nature Made, Schiff Nutrition, etc....with some basic high quality supplements, like Lycopene, Krill Oil, Whey Isolate, etc....for the buyers that desire to mix their own nutritional sports nutritional regimen.

less than 30 days ago? hey, jeffy, you can buy back those stocks you sold on March 17 now, we have passed the 30 days...so, no wash sale.

BB.com UK top 50 is 100% derived from the Worldwide list, excluding items not carried in the UK. So, the list is misleading.....I wonder if the same can be said about the Wordwide top 50? I mean, if you put up a misleading list for the Brits, then why trust the Worldwide list?

Jym Nutrition product rankings seem very suspicious to me....his brand is supported by low budget marketing and they are expensive, and yet his pre workout ranks third of all products sold through BB.com??

I doubt anybody would pick up any of his products, if he didn't have this ranking...questioning whether this list ain't more marketing to serve a purpose for BB.com, than having anything to do with reality.


I know, Idaho is the place to promote low budget movies at Sun Valley film festival....and wonder if similar model applies to Idaho retailers of supplements...To promote what doesn't sell to a greater audience.

that is more or less what is gonna happen.

with issues, stock price should still be $8.5 imo because there are stabilizing mechanisms like decent sales from foreign markets, muscle and strength, costco, gnc, vitamin shoppe and from combat crunch protein bars.

to take this to the next level, it all comes down to implementation of more open, honest and powerful communication maintaining the brand identity...and not trying to adapt products to athletes and sports where there is no natural fit.

company got it's issues.

First, it's a black box....with only cory gregory and arnold schwarzenegger communicating anything to the public....everybody else behind the brand are pretty much not part of their communication whatsoever.

Tell me how their scientific team looks like? tell me how the ceo looks like...you cannot.

Nature Sport could become a huge source of income, if brand becomes similar to Schiff Nutrition, Nature Made, Nature's Bounty and Solgar Vitamins.

What I'm fearing is that this is gonna become some other yoga brand, that a few women in Canada with too much time available, gonna try once....and then forget about it entirely.

Actually, there was nothing wrong with the products and the brand image until this "golfer" was signed.

He moved things in the wrong direction, and might have had a neutral effect on Costco at best....but clearly a negative effect on sales for all other channels.

Now the brand got an identity crisis worse than Michael Jackson and Bruce Jenner....it doesn't know whether it wants to be young, old, woman, man, black or white.

"I'm a golfer wearing beige shoes with lace flaps, assaulting the golf course: C'mon!"

Golf is a much cooler sport than what it used to be....but it's still detached from the UFC, the NFL, and the Worlds of surfing, bodybuilding and wrestling....It's not that cool for younger people yet.

Musclepharm lacks product management of existing products. Seriously!

A few years back, when I studied marketing a few semesters in Milan, this was something they indoctrinated on to us....Understanding product management, understanding how to grow and defend market shares for products and for product categories.

What are the doing? They sign a golfer, and from that day and until now....the sales and the market shares have dropped for the most important products. We got the data, and there is no need to be in denial about it....The endorsements signed in 2014 had a NEGATIVE EFFECT on the brand.

Lets face it, young people find UFC fighters cool, and they consider bodybuilders and muscular athletes like Arnold Schwarzenegger and Colin Kaepernick to be their "bros"...not any overpaid "golfer".

Damage control: Use "the golfer" for the Nature Sport brand.....and make that brand similar to Schiff Nutrition, Nature Made, Nature's Bounty and Solgar vitamins. Buy high quality supplements in bulk, krill oil, CoQ10....put them in bottles, tubs whatever and sell them for a premium at Whole Foods Market with "the golfer" endorsing them.

what is going on Bodybuilding.com?

If you get to the page of Musclepharm Assault, Bodybuilding.com tells you that "it works well with C4, Gold Standard Pre-Workout and N.O.-Xplode?????

What about it working well with MP Combat Protein powder or MP Combat Crunch?

Bodybuilding.com is deliberately routing customers away from Musclepharm to main competitors, not only on complementary products....but on products in same category.

ASSAULT is really better than C4 and NO Xplode, explaining why Jym Nutrition copied from Musclepharm and not from Cellucor and BSN....but what does it all help when bodybuilding.com promotes them at the expense of Musclepharm?

Might be that bodybuilding.com refers business to MP Combat Crunch, but there aren't really any main competitors to the product.

http://www.bodybuilding.com/store/musclepharm/assault.html?_requestid=145730

current orders are more important than press releases and numbers in past earnings reports because they secure that bills are paid now....

When Musclepharm gets a huge order at key customer for launch of new SKU, we are notified after the fact and never before the fact.

So, it could be that Costco or some other channel has decided to expand the number of MP SKUs carried.

Here we are very fixated on the bodybuilding.com channel, when the performance at that channel didn't drive growth over the last 2 years.

I wonder if GNC would allow Musclepharm to sell any Arnold Iron products through Costco?

Musclepharm already got trucks delivering to Costco...so, why even consider Walmart and Sam's Club as channels?

If it's just the Muscle bar or the Iron Mass powder....I'm not so sure that would hurt GNC with the new Combat Black weight gainer being launched, and the impulse aspect of protein bar purchases.

GNC is probably a little more comfortable with Costco than Walmart....and the payment conditions are probably a little better.

jeffy, Musclepharm is doing the right thing participating in these types of events. I agree Cleveland is not exactly the best platform for gaining nationwide attention, but Musclepharm needs to start somewhere.

Some weeks ago, I was watching some ESPN boxing fight night at Hialeah Park Casino. All young Cubans, other Latin Americans and Afro Americans cheering for the boxers....Hell, Musclepharm should have been there handing out protein bars and energy drinks....it was the right demographics and the right environment for it's products.

That was clearly a missed opportunity imo....and the cost of a promotion there would have been minimal.

yeah, perhaps you are right.....I forgot, NBA makes it hard to advertise anything, apart from the name of the Arena and the brand of the shoes.

Well, then what are you so worried about then? this is a trivial expense and Musclepharm gets a little publicity out of it.

lol, so funny....i need to acclimatize to America where you pay for sponsorships and endorsements that are extremely limited and restrictive....America is a big country though, so when you penetrate just a little bit to larger audience, as through the UFC sponsorship for Musclepharm....it really does boost your sales quite dramatically.

Lebron is slam dunking and he jumps on top of a MP Combat Crunch banner....something like that can take the sales of Combat Crunch from $10 million each quarter to $30 million each quarter.

With $30 million sales each quarter on one product category besides the protein powders, puts Musclepharm in an entirely different league....now the company trades for $44.4 not $4.4.

There is nothing wrong with thinking big, when you got the plan to get there. Brad got a plan.

Lebron plays for Cleveland, and that makes all Cleveland playoff games very interesting....Cleveland, unlike Miami....cannot get the same sponsorship deals, where Mercedes Benz or American Airlines goes in for example, with $30 million or so.

Cavs got Quickenloans, Dan Gilbert's own company....and somehow, Musclepharm took advantage of the situation, and made a good sponsorship deal with limited risks, but a huge potential payoff.

Remember that Basketball is very popular Worldwide, huge in Brazil, Eastern Europe, Uk, Australia....all markets that are important to Musclepharm.