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The Irishman
Absolutely agree, except for the uncertainty of the current Board and leadership.
Du destroyed Amarin and the US market and her decision will result in 10’s of millions of people being denied access to this life saving drug. Thanks to her the US market is gone, history, finished, destroyed. Amarin is now competing in the US just like it was a generic company. Fight to save what you can but turn the focus to the next protected market: EU. The Board is well set up and equipped to handle an EU launch - but these things take time. Canada approved 3 years ago and sales are just getting going. V has been on the market in the US for 12 years and it STILL has crap coverage and sales.
KNJS
Absolutely correct.
My statement that the stock will tank (again) is relative only to the SP at the time the vote is taken vs the SP a week later.
Note: money to be made either way (especially if your trades are driven by specially built computers running AI algorithms programmed by a team of MIT grads. Unfortunately, I don’t have one of those.)
Jasbg
I have had experience running a business, but nothing that would be remotely similar to Amarin. I have also had 7 years experience as a Board member, 3 of which as Board President. 32 years in the pharmacy business, including several contracts with BP and a research job (preclinical trial work). I’ve been invested in Amarin since before the 2012 adcom. I’ve been in direct communication with John Thero, Dr Bhatt and Preston Mason. I’ve had a 45 minute one-on-one video call with IR, I can pick up the phone at any time and talk to the senior people at HLS.
I have a decent perspective on what KM and the Board have faced and what their options where, and why they did what they did. I know very well what the SP has done. But the MAIN thing I have, that most here lack, is the ability to separate what KM and the Board did and and what 3rd parties have done to affect the SP.
Blaming KM for the SP drop resulting from things outside his control is just ignorance
Sounds like a good business plan
ramfan60
True, retail represents about 70% of shares vs the 30% held long term by Wall Street hedge funds BUT I would say it is safe to bet 90% of daily trades of 5M shares are super computers on Wall Street and not guys like us buying and selling. The volume driving price movements are from algorithms. If Sarissa wins then my bet would be the computers let it fly up a dollar or more in an hour or 2 and suck retail into thinking the SP is taking off on the inevitable BO only to be shorted back down to $1.20. WS computers make money on the way up and on the way down. Retail gets screwed again.
If Denner loses, he won’t sell and run leaving 75% of his cash on the table. He will stay invested and make a new plan to attack at the AGM. I’m sure plan B is already formulated.
NS (and nobody else)
I had a conversation today with someone knowledgeable on the subject of Amarin. Very interesting. A very important point was made that I hadn’t considered: if Sarissa gets their 7 seats and PWO is removed then when the next AGM comes up, where the longest sitting 1/3 of board members are put up for reelection, it will all be current board members who are up for reelection. This will be an opportunity for Sarissa to remove the remaining board members and Denner will have complete control. Absolute control. WS knows this and a vote to add all 7 members will tank the stock as WS sees this as destabilizing the company. Senior Amarin staff in EU who are organizing the launch will see the writing on the wall and will start to abandon ship at the first opportunity. Denner and Sarissa have lots of experience “flipping” a company but their board nominees are completely unqualified to launch a new drug in EU. This person feels a Sarrisa controlled board would be under pressure to sell ASAP and a desperate sale is never a good sale for the seller.
This has all been very precisely timed by Denner. It explains why he waited until days before the last AGM to submit names and why he didn’t allow time for Amarin to interview the 7 current nominees. He never wanted just a few seats. His plan all along was to force a proxy fight for half the board a few months before the next AGM.
Denner is going for 100% and feeding shareholder frustrations by planting disinformation via Lizzy and others 20 times/day. Desperate and frustrated retails all falling in line behind him one after another simply believing “anything will be better” when he clearly has no real plan for change.
There is no question that Amarin ignored retail and now that is going to really bite them in the ass. They couldn’t post publicly without blocking responses because children like Raf, Garvey etc would post completely inappropriate comments and demand answers that couldn’t (or shouldn’t) be posted publicly. Raf is STILL demanding Amarin publicly state that Preston Mason couldn’t find a significant difference in purity between V and gV.
IP loss - not KM’s fault
Germany- completely a political & financial decision, not KM’s fault
Current EU launch/sales- industry standard, nothing unusual (Canada approval 3 years ago, sales just getting started)
US sales: no patents, no protection= market share should be around 10% but they have maintained 60% = miracle
Cash burn slashed, focused on EU (US courts are responsible for Americans not getting this life saving drug)
I’m back to voting white. I don’t see Sarissa bringing anything of value (Amarin has a top notch M&A guy now, they don’t need 7 more) and their tactics have all been “odd” and the timing suspicious.
If Amarin can maintain 50,000 scripts/week Q1 and Q2 then EU will slowly come online and once that happens WS will take notice.
7 Sarissa seats will tank this stock immediately. WS is ALWAYS 1 step ahead of retail and the opposite of what retail expects to happen is always what actually happens.
BBI
V was approved in Canada 3 years ago but only achieved government coverage 6 months ago. EU will be the same. Sales only really start once covered is in place
Canes
Gilligan’s island is delayed, the professor is awaiting MITIGATE data
Oneragman
My apologies, I was not aware that I had not responded to your posts. I respect your opinion and read all your posts. If I did not respond, it was likely because I agreed with you or saw nothing I disagreed with. if you were stating an opinion, I would have been open to your opinion, but may not have had any facts to make you reconsider your opinion.
I have also had periods where I only check in on the board once a week
Sarissa’s track record was something I took into consideration. When I learned that PWO rejected board membership for Sarissa’s senior partner that was enough for me to support PWO removal and support 1-2 Sarissa seats (based on shareholder representation and Sarissa’s track record). I, like NSleven currently appears, was very resistant to giving too much control to 1 person. AD has a large investment at stake, and therefore his priorities are most likely aligned with general shareholders. But, a man in his position may have additional priorities or benefits to gain from decisions that may not align with general retail investors. For example, he may have his eye on another investment he wants to get in on and may rush his exit from Amarin, because the bigger picture gives him better long-term profits in the second company, a situation we are not privy to, nor would we benefit from. Ultimately, Denner will do what is best for Denner and Denner alone. Investors should not be blind to this reality.
The current board appears to be resistant to opposing anything PWO decides (probably because he recently handed them half a million free shares and they don’t want to bite the hand that feeds them) and this indicates to me, their priority is not first and foremost Amarin’s success. The current members of the board are, IMO, qualified to direct the future of the company but unfortunately they are also apparently “yes men/women”. This was assumed by many posters here prior to any evidence to support it. Dinner has directly interacted with these people and made supporting claims in legal documents, which suggest they are likely truthful and valid (though not absolutely).
These are the reasons I am CURRENTLY looking to support all Blue votes. I am open to Sleven finding reasons to reconsider that decision.
Rose
No info, been very busy with a new work project
Bid
I would expect nothing more from you
tke458
“I wonder where Slev is.
He’s one of the most reasonable on this board so it’s odd that he hasn’t been around. “
Slev is truly one of the most level headed and rational posters on this board. He keeps emotions out of his posts and his decisions.
This board has been an echo chamber of AD worship (before even knowing what their plan was) and very intolerant to any opinions that did not adhere to the party line. Questioning the comments of others or asking for factual support of statements was always met with abusive ignorance and propaganda.
I am purely guessing but I suspect Slev is researching the points Sarissa made because he seems to always verify sources before accepting them as true - a process many here skip.
Sarissa’s presentation is very good
I have been saying for the past month that PWO must go and Sarissa should get at least 1 seat for shareholder representation. Without a plan I was not prepared to hand AD control of the Board just because of his name.
Sarissa has now provided a plan. The slide deck is very good, shows he has a different marketing approach and brings out information I did not know about how PWO & the Board have been operating.
Now that I have the expanded information I have been asking for, I am now planning to vote ALL BLUE.
My decision is made by analyzing the facts and trying to keep
emotions out of my investment decisions. Too many people on this board let emotions drive their decisions before knowing all the information (available).
I have seen the true colours of many of the anonymous posters on this board and it has been a disappointing experience
Shocker!!!
Lizzy completely misinterpreting (or intentionally misconstruing the information)
“johnhan, did you see where PWO tried to nominate 2 more board members that weren't in Sarissa's venue? No wonder why Denner threatened to remove anyone new from Jan 10 going forward.
Yeah, 100% of the vote to move forward with items 2-9. Sneaky creeps”
This poster is completely incapable of accurately and honestly presenting information.
I completely agree with BBI - this gets settled before any vote happens. PWO makes the obvious offer with no Sarissa employees, knowing AD will automatically reject any first offer. Next AD counters with 3 Sarissa employees (just my guess)- and they meet somewhere in the middle (probably very close to AD’s original proposal). The question is will AD agree to PWO staying?
A resolution I would be quite happy with. Back to business as usual after a lot of free publicity and attention
Lizzy
When Amarin contracted the supply of API they had to guarantee minimum purchases so suppliers could invest the necessary capital with assurance they wouldn’t lose money. These would have been signed many years ago anticipating large US sales. Du screwed Amarin and demand failed to meet projections. Inventory is piling up and Amarin had to renegotiate the terms (minimums) to avoid cash burn. There is a cost to changing signed contracts. They paid $10M instead of spending $50M plus (just a guess) of needed cash on obligatory minimum purchases.
Simple. Standard business practice. An additional cost to our high priced third party legal counsel screwing the patent case and the appeal.
No lies at all, anywhere, by anyone at Amarin.
YOU, on the other hand, can’t seem to make a single post without blatant LIES, false speculation, ridiculous assumptions and out deceitful intentions.
You try your best to turn standard business practices and outcomes that were out of Amarin’s control into giant conspiracies of corporate fraud and greed.
Your accusations NEVER contain ANY facts or are even mildly believable.
You are the biggest fraud of all. Please stop
Great slide Capt
And FYI The new mantra has become “LDL-c: the lower the better.” This is the old mantra, the new mantra is “LDL-c: the lower the better and the sooner the better”
Nuke
Apples to oranges
There is one very significant difference to your comparison between Tylenol/Advil and Vascepa: who pays
It is not your doctor, nor your pharmacist, or even the patient that decides which medication you get. It is your insurance company that decides, and they decide based primarily on their cost.
You know the names, Tylenol and Advil, so when you stand in the aisle of the pharmacy and decide which product you want to spend your money on, brand recognition plays a role in that decision. That has nothing to do with your insurance company deciding which brand or generic, they will pay for.
Your doctor can write Vascepa DAW, no sub, no generic, “patents require brand as this is for CVD risk reduction” etc but it won’t make any difference at all when the bill is submitted to the insurance company by the pharmacist and it comes back saying $300 for brand or $8 for generic.
The only way to retain market share is to negotiate pricing with each insurance provider. The insurance companies, as we have clearly seen, don’t care at all about patents. They only care about how much it will cost them to provide the drug.
If you were getting your Tylenol through your insurance company, I’m pretty sure you would be getting the least expensive generic and not the brand-name
Rob25
Thank you.
First of all it is important to point out that Alex Denner is NOT trying to join the Amarin Board, he only wants to appoint his people:
“The Direct Sarissa Beneficial Owners have delivered the Requisition Notice in accordance with the Companies Act, proposing (among other things) to adopt an ordinary resolution to appoint each of Ms. Bonfiglio, Dr. Cohen, Mr. DiPaolo, Mr. Horn, Dr. Kostas, Mr. Sterling, and Ms. Sullivan as a director of the Company pursuant to each separate resolution pertaining such Nominee.”
Alex Denner is not one of the nominees.
My current plan is to vote to remove PWO primarily because he refused to add an excellent candidate, Mr DiPaolo, when initially recommended by Sarissa. He is definitely qualified and would have created shareholder representation, which the Board lacks and absolutely should have. The limited info I have seen implies a history between Denner and PWO which may have affected his decision and there is no room for personal grudges in a Boardroom. No excuse for not welcoming DiPaolo initially and preventing the current disruption. That being said, the publicity and attention is not entirely a bad thing.
I will vote to add Mr DiPaolo, as stated above, as well as Ms Sullivan who also appears very qualified and with a history showing valuable experience as well as shareholder representation.
The remaining nominees, although surely very intelligent and having impressive histories and experience, don’t bring anything that is not already covered by the new/recent/current Board members.
Amarin does not need a Board of 15 (very expensive, and “too many cooks in the kitchen”). Denner, an expert negotiator, surely knows this and may simply be demanding 7 with the plan of settling on his initial request of 3 (or even 2) before the vote actually happens.
Those are my current thoughts, since you asked.
Kiwi
Please read it again closely:
“I really don’t give a shit if I release factually correct but harmful information about V”
I hate BS and, as you correctly point out, I always post the truth AS I SEE IT.
I realize it’s an anonymous public message board and there are false people with personal/business interests that may strongly influence their posts (Lizzy) but I still find it difficult to understand why posters write complete BS with absolutely nothing to back it up and others just swallow it whole without questioning the accuracy. Then those same people get totally pissed off when someone else (me) posts facts that contradict previous baseless BS.
Raf
It doesn’t jive?
So are you saying that I am lying or that Preston Mason lied to me?
Or does Dr Bhatt just know better than to publicly announce the equivalency of gV and V on a public message board?
You may be wondering why I don’t know better than to announce these results on a public message board. The answer is I do, which is why after my October 28th meeting I only let a select couple of posters know about my dinner because posting about it I would be asked point blank about the generic testing and didn’t want to have to answer (or lie). I had hoped that those who knew would put an end to rumours or questions about it but they could not. The endless BS and false information on this board now has me at the point that I really don’t give a shit if I release factually correct but harmful information about V.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/16uwKE5OGgqzasTPal0M59u3b44-aui2v/view?usp=drivesdk
Tke
First, thank you.
Second, your welcome. So many knowledgeable posters 10 years ago taught me so much, I try and give back where I can
Third, I’m not sure we disagree on much. I think adding AD to the Board is much needed and helpful to get where I want Amarin to go - which is to be bought by Novartis, Pfizer, any BP willing to pay. I DONT agree with a majority on the Board which would make Amarin Denner’s own personal company and retail will no longer be of any value or significance to him. A BO is many months away regardless of who is running the company so people need to realize that no matter what there is a limited amount of cash moving forward and AD won’t change that (unless he brings in a $100M private loan to fund marketing at reasonable interest- that would ideal).
I want the company sold
I want AD on the Board
A BO won’t happen for months, and Amarin has to continue to do what it is doing until the BO (GIA until it isn’t).
KM slashed expenses (fired 90% of salespeople) so what will AD do different
They have to keep moving on coverage and pricing ROW (KM did amazingly in UK, you can’t argue that)
Germany was 100% a case of they just don’t want to pay for new drugs at the moment because of “austerity measures” - not Amarin’s or KM fault (they are NOT waiting for MITIGATE data)
When generics enter the US market the brand usually lose 90% market share within first year. Amarin still holds 60% which is a miracle and entirely due to KM signing deals with insurance.
The US market will only decline from here.
FDC will not help US market loss
US patents are absolutely worthless. The HN lawsuit was our last hope. (The fact it is confidential is pretty standard)
You can’t sell a company that nobody wants to buy unless you drop the price so low the buyer feels there is nothing to lose. AD pushing for an earlier sale just means he is willing to take a lower price (THIS IS ADMITTEDLY JMO).
Bottom line: I want AD on the Board just not more than 2-3 seats (every seat will cost half million share dilution)
No matter who takes over the next couple months don’t change
I don’t see what AD really has to offer besides shareholder representation
WS will probably like AD being added so it will help SP short term
BO will happen sooner with AD IMO but I am not in a rush and think a better price would be achieved if the company matured a bit more (you never get the best price when you are weak and openly desperate to be bought)
Right now Amarin reeks of desperation
John
Let’s talk facts, right?
“If Current management wins, the sp will drop that day and more than likely sink below $1 and stay there until bankruptcy. If Denner wins, sp will immediately jump and run back into double digits on anticipation of a buyout. “
This statement doesn’t include a single fact, not 1 single fact, just your fear based guesses. Why would it go under $1? You GUESS it will drop, how do you know it won’t go up because WS sees Amarin had enough support from all other HF to beat 1 desperate guy trying to break even? COH alone equals around $0.75. Denner winning and SP running to double digits is absolutely ridiculous!!! Zero chance. What “FACTS” give you that number.
You are a complete hypocrite to demand facts and reply with BS
Raf
1) Amarin stopped promoting V because they fired all their reps to stop the cash burn. Regardless of who is steering the company March 1st Amarin doesn’t have the cash to ramp up sales in US or EU (Amarin and AD know that)
2) Amarin has no plans to launch FDC in US because they know no insurance company will cover it unless the price is lower than gV plus gStatin which means their price would be lower than every gV (gStatins are almost free). Insurance companies dictate which product is used in US market. FDC has ZERO benefits in US.
3) FDC does not mean it is for CVD. A FDC “could” be for lowering VHTG and high cholesterol- which happen together often. Our worthless CVD patents would remain worthless and ineffective with FDC
4) AG in US means V sales at higher margin disappear and everything goes to lower margin AG which may also involve paying a royalty to a generic to distribute (like Teva) so AG means a big drop in margin
I had to come back to the board because someone sent me a private message about FDC patents so I wanted more details.
Laughed out loud when I read Lizzy’s response to all the errors AD made on the SEC filing. “It is what it is. LOL”. OMG, if it was Amarin that made those errors she would of ranted for 10 paragraphs about incompetent Amarin management (how can they run a multinational company if they can’t fill out a form blah blah blah). I am really starting to believe Lizzy is an AD plant on this board to stoke the fires of animosity against management and appeal to shareholders’ fears to drive for change. It’s the only thing her posts ever do. I’ve never read an insightful post from her - just fear mongering. At least CBB is very clear, every single post for the past 5 years has the statement “sell to BP” in it somewhere (it’s like playing “find Waldo” each post).
Other missed points:
First you get approval, then you negotiate coverage, then you negotiate price, then you hire a sales force (Germany had special rules that allowed immediate coverage so Amarin went ahead with sales force and Germany yanked the carpet out from under them with a reversal of that policy) the sales slowly rise for the first 2 years because doctors are VERY resistant to change. EU sales will be minimal in EU in 2023 and both Amarin and AD know that. AD won’t sell the company next week or next month, it will take several months so whoever is steering the company as of March they both have the same future: no sales force or aggressive marketing BECAUSE NEITHER WILL HAVE THE CASH, continue negotiating approvals and pricing for future rollout, the US market will continue to fade (it’s a miracle to retain 60% while 4 generics compete, can’t find any other example of that happening).
I met and had a 3&1/2 hr private dinner with Preston Mason and here are some points you recently demanded, RAF
1) no significant difference in quality found with generics. Did you want Amarin to send out a PR with that news???? You seemed so upset they didn’t notify shareholders and the world of the results. Anyone with common sense could figure out that no follow up meant nothing good to report but you are out there on Twitter demanding they publish the equality of gV.
2) no shortage of generic API
3) he told me LOTS more but this board has deteriorated into a Saint Denner church of worship so I won’t bother telling people facts or truths because nobody is willing to hear anything that doesn’t align with Lizzy brainwashing everyone that AD gets majority control of the board March 1st and sells the company for $50/share March 7th.
I’ve followed this company every day for 11 years. I’ve meet and talked to Bhatt and Mason, I know reps and company VPs and reps. I talk to cardiologists, PCP, Pts and insurance companies. I work directly in the system getting people on V. But please, keep sending me the insults and telling me I know nothing but lies. I don’t hide my real identity, anyone can find out exactly who pharmacydude really is. Disregard all that and keep listening to anonymous posters who claim to know the future based on past examples of different companies in completely different circumstances only focus on his successful deals.
This board was once a great resource, now a complete was of time.
Good luck
JRoon71
(Couldn’t resist a one time return from my self imposed exile)
“You also have to consider that you are looking at Denner's holdings on the heels of the worst Biotech bear market in history.”
I can’t believe you left out the obvious FACT that KM and the current Board (who are the exact same people for the past 10 years) are 100% responsible for that Biotech bear market. KM virtually caused that on his own, only needing the Boards approval to take down the market.
Please send me a link to the gofundme site raising cash to fund the shareholder sponsored lawsuit against KM for losing the IP case in Nevada. IMO a completely separate suite should be filed for walking away from Germany’s 30 euro offer for V - it cost us the largest market in the EU. Denner would have taken it and V would be flying off the shelves in Germany and every other country would see the value of V and agree to pay 30 euro.
KM really Fuc#ed us, that camel riding Bast@rd. Where the hell is AD to save us??? That guy is a genius who never loses money.
(You may now return to your AD love-in echo chamber, I will return to exile so don’t respond, please)
Lrich
“the leadership team remains largely intact.”
They have REPLACED 75% OF BOTH THE BOARD AND THE EXECUTIVES IN THE PAST 18 months
FFS!!! This whole board is so blinded by the current SP they can’t see reality
KM came in less than 18 months ago, immediately started slashing expenses (fired half the sales force, cancelled the 100M TV ad campaign) made exclusivity deals to hold onto 60% of the market (that NEVER HAPPENS WHEN GENERICS SHOW UP) and turned the company’s focus to building EU while conserving cash. 170 Euros from the UK and Sweden. Cut all staff and left Germany when it was clear they weren’t using science to decide on coverage.
What does Denner offer? A well known name and a giant “For sale at a discount, no offer will be refused” sign.
The only thing anyone has said Denner is going to do is “raise the SP and sell the company”. No shit but that is not a business plan that signifies any real change to what THE NEW F$$KING BOARD AND NEW MANAGEMENT are doing.
Tired of the same whining and crying about how the new guys are responsible for the past guys deeds.
I will check back in a month or 2
GL
Johnniegalan
“while locking in insurance companies to exclusively use V”….how do know this? I hope you are correct on the “locked in” part….locked in by contract?…”
In previous presentations KM mention getting IIRC 40% of payers to agree to cover V exclusively for their Pts. Those deals likely 1 year contracts to be renegotiated each year. With more generics fighting for the market prices would have become more competitive and from what Duke reports it appears several have switched over to the generics for 2023.
The distributors would be the wholesalers (eg AmerisourceBergen) who buy from Amarin and distribute to all the pharmacies nationwide. Those contracts would be pretty basic and not altered by the presence of generics.
It would appear quite clear that Method of Use patents are completely worthless in the US as KM did sound quite resolved to the fact the US market could only be maintained by making deals with insurance companies. Insurance companies have way too much power in the healthcare system. They force doctors, pharmacists, and Pts to do exactly what they say and can prevent any of them from doing what is best for the pt just as easily.
Laurent
I agree with you and your examples of the other failed applications in Germany reinforce that Germany was not an Amarin (KM) failure but likely an under stated risk in the EU launch.
Your DD and stats analysis are always dead on, very valuable and factual but I would caution you that your reason to support Denner, although understandable, is more emotional than logical. We still don’t know what Amarin won in the HN suite. It may be something helpful in the Hickma appeal (due in April IIRC) or something to pressure other insurers.
As for MITIGATE, I do see some potential benefits from the data which could be useful for Germany, but I couldn’t resist the urge to poke Kiwi for fun.
The “real world data” that KM alluded to MAY be raw data from KP’s database as opposed to specially MITIGATE. Would MITIGATE, a fully registered clinical trial, qualify as “real world data” vs more clinical trial data?
I’m hoping Denner was just playing hardball with the SEC filing and that he is willing to settle for 2 seats on the Board.
A Tuesday morning PR that they have come to an agreement would be a nice way to keep this little rally going.
CAM!!!
He’s back! Great to see you on the board again. The guy who taught me what “shorting a stock” meant, the basics about options trading AND the guy who was the catalyst and initial recipient of the email that was to become the “EPA Deficiency Syndrome” paper (now evolved into a 42 page paper with accompanying video on YouTube) :)
It was a lifetime ago that we met for lunch at a pub in Montreal.
As always you show your wisdom. We are dependent on execution of the business plan and not on the hype. Totally agree.
It is my personal opinion, not shared by many on this board, that we have a new Board and executive team (75% of each) who have made the required shift in strategy to adapt to our new circumstances. KM became CEO in August and cut the sales force in half in September. He hired outside lawyers to pursue the legal options while locking in insurance companies to exclusively use V and retained 60% market share in spite of numerous generics to compete with (unheard of market retention post generics). The plan to fund the EU launch with Germany sales got derailed by a government that simply didn’t want to pay for new therapies and selected an inappropriate comparator molecule that restricted what V could be reimbursed at to a point it was below cost. KM didn’t blink at the UK’s NICE treats and claims of “no benefit” held his ground and got an impressive reimbursement price which will be used in all future pricing discussions. Rolling out across EU at a gradual pace to conserve cash, he has a clear plan of action and has made the necessary cuts to expenses to achieve that plan while remaining cash flow neutral. 90M burn to a 4M surplus is undeniably impressive.
Denner has made some big and profitable deals. He knows a lot of people and attracts attention and money. But really, beyond the “hype” what does he bring to the table? What could he do better than what KM (focus people: I’m talking about KM, not JT or Lars or Du or the German government) has planned and put in place? Denner tends to cut costs, trim the fat, sell off or shut down unprofitable divisions or projects. Amarin is a 1 drug company with almost no sales force. What can he cut? The bottom line is that Amarin doesn’t have the cash a BP has to market more aggressively and grow sales. If a BP owned V then YES they would be growing sales multiples above what Amarin is doing but Amarin is Amarin and that is not an option. BP knows everything about V (hell, Pfizer is already selling it in Canada) and they DON’T WANT TO BUY AMARIN at the moment (too many unknowns I suspect - oh wait, I forgot, all BP are waiting for MITIGATE to confirm R-IT, RESPECT, JELIS, EVAPORATE, CHERRY ). Denner can’t change that unless he makes a lowball offer to motivate a sale which he may want to do just to GET THE HELL OUT OF THIS BRUTAL INVESTMENT (a sentiment shared by many here).
Zero chance I vote to hand over 7 seats (automatic complete control of the company by majority board representation) to 1 guy just because he made a killing on The Medicine Company. If he wants to commit to lending Amarin 200M at low interest to free up KM to start aggressively marketing and growing then he definitely has my vote for 2, maybe 3 seats. Otherwise I just don’t see what he has to offer besides “the hype”.
As HDG said, a good company doesn’t sell itself, it gets bought. You GIA 100% until you don’t.
Great to have you back Cam
STS
Excellent assessment!
JRoon7
Can you imagine the screaming that is going to happen on this board when they see that all the fired board members get to vest ALL their options and collect ALL their promised compensation as they leave. Huge golden parachutes for everyone AND all new golden deals for all of Denner’s friends being added to the board.
The only way to sell a company that nobody wants to buy is to offer it at a substantial discount.
Zero chance i vote to give Denner 7 seats (instant majority) and complete freedom to do whatever he wants. 1-2 seats maybe.
Ralphey
No
JRoon
It was new news to me that the FDC is ONLY for EU. Don’t think many on this board were aware of this detail. I never thought it had much use in the US market. If insurers won’t cover Vascepa they sure won’t cover Vastatin.
Has everyone forgotten that comparing the Board and C-suite from March 2020 to now there has been at least a 75% turnover in both. People keep screaming the “board and management sucks” but the reality is that they cleaned house and most people have been there less than 2 years.
Time to find a new slogan (or scapegoat)
One
The guy they brought in a couple months ago is an M&A bigshot so they don’t need another guy focused on selling the company. A Board should represent a broad range of expertise
Could
I am not going to dispute the fact that if Pfizer owned Amarin, they would have been able to pour $100 million into promoting V and had sales doubled by now. Amarin doesn’t have the cash to do this.
Bottom line: Pfizer hasn’t made an offer. I guarantee you Pfizer knows all there is to know about V (they sell it in Canada) so how would Denner change their mind - other than dropping the price to get their interest
One
“getting a company sold for a nice profit! If that's not management's goal...to get the company sold, then just what the hell is?”
The Board and executives’ primary goal is to build shareholder value. This can involve long periods before that value is reflected in the stock price.
Getting a company sold is like slapping lipstick on a pig. Quick superficial dressing up to move the product at whatever price you can get. That is fine if you are in a rush but not if you’re truly in it for the long haul to maximize profits.
WS knows Amarin is still a year or 2 away from significant revenue so they have better places to park their money. BP sees too many unknowns to accurately value the asset so they are in no rush either. So we GIA until we don’t.
Lizzy
I was quoting BBI. I will continue to do what I do as you continue to do as you do. You are free to block me if you wish.
Zip
I choose to adapt to the current circumstances. Du screwed the master plan (and a lot of CVD Pts) so a new plan had to develop. You proceed as if GIA until it is not. EU launch was supposed to be funded by German sales - Germany decided to use false comparators and force Amarin to walk away. Now the only option left is to fight to maintain US market share, minimize expenses and move forward in EU and rest of world. I am confident every CVD BP knows everything about V and they will either make an acquisition move on their own or not. They don’t need Denner going door to door trying to sell the company. If BP is interested they will make an offer. If it requires Denner to get them interested then it’s because he is offering a significant discount to get them interested. I haven’t waited 11 years to walk away with my shares on the discount/clearance rack.
Amarin has cash, have removed the dead wood from the Boardroom, and know exactly where they need to go. KM did an awesome job standing up to the BS NICE threats and walked away with a decent reimbursement.
The big unknown is the HN confidential settlement. Amarin had enormous potential gains taking the suit in front of a jury. They gave that up for something. Denner wants 7 (not 2-3) board seats which would essentially make it his own company with complete control (majority rules). Denner currently doesn’t know what Amarin won in the settlement so how can he know the right direction for the company.
I don’t like the current stock price but I’m not prepared to hand it over to Denner who will do what is in Denner’s best interest. I will continue to watch how things play out and vote the way I feel is in my best interest or sell (or buy) on the open market as circumstances change.
BBI
Absolutely agree with all your points.
I would add:
Only KM and the board know what is in the HN agreement and therefore only KM and Board can make a clear strategic plan to move forward.
Denner ONLY wants to make Denner money, not you and I. Happy to leverage our shares but he couldn’t care less about our fate.
I’m not sure about this latest Board appointment but the ones before were a definite improvement and a sign of the company’s shift in focus.
I’m not ready to hand my votes over to the screaming kid in diapers yet, but I will listen to his plan and decide on voting day.
BBI/NS/whoever
IIRC Amarin usually puts out an unaudited summary of finances immediately prior to the conference next week so that they can talk about it at the conference. Am I correct on this?