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Very interesting ratio
......So another variable is added into the mix.....suggesting that GOLD has much higher to go?.....I guess we only find out in years to come......for SILVERBUGS it is worth considering these 3 things:
1: GOLD to DOW ratio suggests that there may be significant upward GOLD movement ahead (as that ratio seems very deviated)
2: SILVER to GOLD ratio is historically 43:1.... now about 80:1 (that ratio also seems very deviated)
3: The previous message regarding Ted Butler and the SILVER short position/manipulation (that scenario seems ?)
If GOLD is going higher....where is SILVER headed?
Seemed to something missing
.....I knew there had to be a piece of the puzzle missing......it just didn't make sense....but I guess that is why only the supposedly 4 large short positions account for the majority of all the worlds SILVER......maybe one day the shorts will go long and SILVER will climb even higher than its previous multi-year highs!
QUESTIONS for the GOLDBUGS
......I would put this out to any any and all as it is what I am most interested in to get feedback on.....The GOLD to SILVER ratio and the "probability" of whether GOLD is currently overpriced or SILVER is currently underpriced useing the historical average ratio.....My thoughts are that at some point the ratio deviates back to the historical norm as it always flucuates over and under the average of 43:1 over multi-year timeframes.....assuming this happens as it always has.....It would seem to indicate that either GOLD is currently overpriced or SILVER is currently underpriced useing the ratio.....would very much appreciate any input and theories/opinions on this.
Thats a pretty short answer
.....So then....if any person waqnt to go short on something....lets say the US$.....they make money when/if it goes down and never have to cover if it goes up?.....Something doesn't make sense about this....It seems like a person who could borrow thousands/millions and never have to pay it back?.....What am I missing?
Does a short have timeframe to cover?
.....Do you know if a short position ever has to be covered?....If there is no timeframe to cover the position(s)....how is it that these four traders can be short with no pressure to ever cover?
Thanks again 4Godnwv
......your input is appreciated.....I agree everybody decides in the end which is thier perceived best route to take....I like looking for the big gain rather than the small trades.....but to each his own....I realize they are few and far between, but it offers more enjoyment overall trying to find them at this point.....as for financial prudence.....most of us would be better of paying down any outstanding debt we may have as it offers a guaranteed "return" (savings).....but what fun is that?.....If somebody is in a very strong/large financial position....I imagine there is a lot more to consider......Thanks again for all your input....have you any thoughts on the GOLD to SILVER ratio imbalance?
Thanks 4Godnwv
.......trying to figure out if GOLD or SILVER has more percentage rise over coming years and then which beaten down producing junior GOLD or SILVER company/stock may be worth taking a specualtive position in......I think you need a fairly large sum of money to "trade" stocks....mostly interested in trying to find a 10 bagger?
agree hogsgeteaten
.....good point....I am most interested in seeing if the price of GOLD and SILVER rise greatly in the coming years and if it presents any opportunities.....most of us don't have enough money to park and it probaly would be better to accumulate non-perishable food items on sale and pay down debt....It is interesting none the less to get others opinions and points of view.
Thanks 4Godnwv about GOLD and SILVER
.....seems to be most logical and more and more people do seem to be trying to get bullion.....what do you think in regard to GOLD and SILVER stocks especially the producing juniors that are beaten down?.....If GOLD and SILVER continue to rise and as more and more people have been actively involved in stocks over the past years.....I wonder if there comes a point at which many GOLD and SILVER stocks grab huge attention/involvement?
GOLD and SILVER perfectly valued?
.....I don't understand how you can use that reasoning for trying to understand where the price of GOLD or SILVER may be heading going forward....I understand that at any given moment something is worth exactly what it is worth based on what someone will pay or sell at.....however, I am trying to look into the historical GOLD to SILVER relationship in terms of price and historical trading ratios...to determine/indicate if at around 80:1 ratio....Does it seem more probable that GOLD will go down or SILVER will go up in the coming months/years to bring the ratio more in-line with its trading average?
"Mr. GOLD Jim Sinclair gives specifics
......I believe if you followed his opinions....the first thing is that the price of GOLD has trended higher over the past few years as he has said it would.....secondly, he has said to sell 1/3 into strength and repurchase weakness....I believe his approach is to be long and trading seldomly....Maybe some others here can add more to it....I'm not sure his suggestion is to time the market going long and short GOLD.....but to be involved in the longer term appreciation and adjusting/selling only a portion into larger moves and always holding a core position.....not sure if that is all to it and if it works or not.....but he has been saying GOLD would go higher and higher at $400 - $500 - $600 - $700 and so on.....any thoughts about it by others?.....Also, I am very interested in various views about the GOLD to SILVER ratio....I wonder if it is currently indicating that GOLD is possibly overpriced or that SILVER is possibly underpriced based on the historical avergae ratio and even the true "in-the-ground" metal ratio.....any thoughts on above would be very much appreciated.
Yes, Jim Sinclair "Mr. GOLD" does make big statements
.....I guess only time will tell.....it does make you wonder sometimes just how right he may be....or not....It seems he has been quite accurate overall, but never 100%....I guess one has to use his input as another variable to help make thier decisions only.....it is true that charts don't lie...I wonder if SILVER is currently undervalued or GOLD is overvalued, when you just use the historical average ratio as an indicator?
How high for GOLD and SILVER in 2009?
......Would be interesting to see what some of you think in regard to GOLD and SILVER in 2009.....My high targets for 2009 for GOLD is $1077 and SILVER is $19.19......How high do the rest of you anticipate GOLD and SILVER hitting in 2009?
Are you familiar with Jim Sinclair?
......Jim Sinclair has been quite accurate for the last 5 years plus regarding the price of GOLD......I agree that you should not have blind faith.....but his record has been very accurate and free......His website www.jsmineset.com offers lots of information and outlooks and like I said has been quite accurate regarding the price of GOLD for many years now.....Jim Sinclair has a GOLD target of $1650 by January 14th 2011 and I would be very surprised if he is not right.....he has also said he may be very conservative in his price.......Have you read any of Jim Sinclairs' commentaries?
$10,000 GOLD and $1000 SILVER?........
.....I don't know.....seems pretty out there to me.....Also, if it were to happen, he has the ratio of SILVER to GOLD down to 10:1.....I prefer to be optimistic and "realistic" toward the outlook for GOLD and SILVER......My HIGHS would be GOLD to $2222 and SILVER to $66......Those numbers even seem very aggressive to me, but they are my maximums......What I do believe is the the NEXT Major up move in GOLD and SILVER began on January 15th 2009 as I had made mention of on that day!
...........$33 SILVER by Jan/14th/2011
.......I have a target of $33 for SILVER by January 14th 2011 based on many variables but simplistically this> Jim Sinclair has set a price of $1650 for GOLD by January 14th 2011 which he has even said could be way to low.....If you take conservative 85% of $1650 for GOLD, you get just over $1400....if you divide 1400 by 43 (the Historical ratio of SILVER to GOLD), you get 32.62 rounded up to $33 for SILVER by January 14th 2011.....So there you have it in its simplicity.....There are other variables and scenario's.....But that is My Target for SILVER $33+......What do some of you think about this?
Thanks CaribbeanJim
......That sums it up very well.....Are you more pro GOLD or pro SILVER or equal outlook on both?......I have the view that GOLD will continue to rise over the next few years and the SILVER will aswell......I am looking at the GOLD to SILVER current ratio and comparing to the historical average ratio of about 43:1 and wondering how that will unfold going forward for GOLD and SILVER.....I am also interested in finding quality GOLD and/or SILVER junior producers as they seem to be worth reviewing when you consider the future outlook for GOLD and SILVER and the current cheaper prices for the beaten down junior producing GOLD and SILVER stocks.
Hi Dale
......In your own opinion, Do you see this move as a POSITIVE or NEGATIVE based on what you have experienced and can tell?.....Will you continue to hold your shares with the same outlook you had.....beyond being a shareholder; will you be affiliated with the company in any way?
GOLD continues to move higher
......On January 15th, I felt the next major move/uptrend in GOLD and SILVER was about to begin and made mention.....so far so good......and the major move in GOLD and SILVER could surprise many!.....Lets continue to watch this unfold and don't forget to review the historical GOLD to SILVER ratio for interests sake.
January 15th 2009
.....GOLD and SILVER were a lot lower on January 15th and it looks like I may have nailed it.....you ain't seen nothing yet I think as far as GOLD and SILVER are concerned.....If interested go to Goldbugs message board for lots of stuff relative to GOLD and SILVER.
Thanks again al44
.....I guess I misunderstood the previous message.....I take it that any major recognized coins that contain SILVER could be worth accumulating if the price of SILVER does in fact go higher over the next few years.
Thanks al44
......I take it that you only purchase the SILVER coins made specifically for bullion accumulation and do not get involved with the circulated coins ie: dollars, fifty cent pieces, etc. as CaribeanJim pointed out for bullion and collectors.
What to look for in a GOLD or SILVER junior?
.....I have read that the junior GOLD and SILVER stocks are at very depressed prices......What criteria should be used in deciding if a low priced junior GOLD or SILVER is worth a look.....I am starting with #1 - "Producing" vs. exploring......Can any of you add any insight into this?
Can you purchase at bullion value?
......That makes a lot of sense if you can get them at the bullion price......also, do you think it matters what denomination ie; dollar...quarter...dime?.....and which countries SILVER coins would be worth buying besides US?......Thanks for your input CaribbeanJim....(and would appreciate any others points of view on this)
Thanks hogsgeteaten....SILVER COINS
......So basically any SILVER coins from any country are worth accumualting if you believe the price of SILVER will be rising over the next few years......So whether it be American or Canadian SILVER dollars or American quarters, dimes, etc.....or any other countries SILVER coins.....it does not matter?
Regarding SILVER bullion accumulation.......
......If a person was to accumualate physical bullion via coins....which coins and countries would be the best to accumualte?......ie: American Silver Dollars?....Canadian Fifty cent pieces?....etc.....Is there a preferred method or can it be any country, any denomination as long as it is SILVER?
SILVER bullion vs. SILVER stocks.......
.......When considering how to become involved in the SILVER arena.....you have to think about what makes most sense?.....Accumulating SILVER bullion or SILVER stocks or a combination.....regarding SILVER bullion.....besides the SILVER bars/bullion; what do some of you think about accumualting SILVER coins from various countries? (I don't know much about it all and would like to know if there is a readily available market to sell coins back into?).....and/or a person could accumualte SILVER stocks; what do some of you think about SILVER stocks majors vs. junior producers (my big concern here is with the "manipulation" that seems to exist with the stock market?) ....what do the rest of you think in regard to SILVER bullion vs. SILVER stocks.
Thanks al44 regarding SILVERBUGS.........
.......Your input is appreciated and valueable as you are not a newcomer to all of this......If there is not a consensus to create a SILVERBUGS board and those here are ok with more and more discussions about SILVER......lets keep that way until/if the time comes that a SILVERBUGS board makes sense.
Thanks RapidTrends GOLD to SILVER ratio.......
......Thanks for that information.....I had heard about the naturally occuring ratio of gold to silver in the earths crust before and was amazed at how low it actually is.......recent historical "trading" ratio is somewhere around 1:40 I think (maybe someone could add some insight into that).....anyways, right now it is around 1:75 suggesting that GOLD is overpriced or SILVER is underpriced.....My view is that it is the latter.
Thanks Fishpert...................
......Thats 2 for keeping the SILVER discussions on the GOLDBUGS board.......Is there ANYBODY out there that DOES NOT like/want the SILVER discussions on the GOLDBUGS board?
My SILVER target..........................
........33 months from January 15th 2009 would be October 15th 2012 and MY TARGET for SILVER is $33+++.
JANUARY 15th 2009 GOLD & SILVER.............
.......Just wondering if any of you believe as I do that the next major leg up in GOLD and SILVER began/beginning on January 15th 2009?.......JANUARY 15th 2009.
Thanks for the input frenchee......................
.............So that is one for GOLD and SILVER discussions on same board (GOLDBUGS)......More input please to determine if a SILVERBUGS board should be started?
SILVERBUGS......
.......To ALL: Please give input about whether you would like to see a separate SILVERBUGS message board, or have the SILVER discussions part of the GOLDBUGS message board......all input appreciated!
Hello gymgravity..............
...........If I understand what your saying correctly......you are comparing that somehow oil fell from a much higher price and GOLD could aswell somehow?......I realize that GOLD could fall somehow and nothing is 100%.....however, I think many here on this message board feel that GOLD is heading higher over the coming years based on many variables including the potential devalueing of the US$......My thoughts are in referance to SILVER based on the SILVER ratio moving closer to its historical norm if GOLD is rising......and the upside potential for SILVER?
HISTORICAL equilibrium..............
........My last message should have said "historical" equilibrium......Based on the past the ratio has been about 40:1 with moves under and above......Now the ratio is around 80:1 which is about twice the historical......Now one could believe that GOLD is overpriced and the price will come down to bring the ratio closer to its historical average......BUT most of us here being GOLD bullish and believing the price of GOLD will head higher, have something to think about as it relates to SILVER; if gold has a move of 100% over the next few years to $1600 and the historical ratio become closer to 40:1......how much upside is in SILVER?.......SILVERBUGS!
SILVERBUGS........I think you SHOULD.........
......I can not start up the SILVERBUGS message board......but you can......I think it may be very timely to do so.....GOLD is heading higher......SILVER is also heading higher as the ratio's gyrate towards the equilibrium......The GOLDBUGS message board has its place and will as the GOLD events unfold......The SILVERBUGS message board should start in 2009!........THE BEGINNING.
Suggestion...................SILVERBUGS
.............Just wondering if it would be worthwhile for someone to start a SILVERBUGS message board on Investorshub.....or should the SILVER discussion be part of the GOLDBUGS message board?......LOOK AT THE GOLD/SILVER ratio movement over the past years......Assuming GOLD is heading higher.....What does that mean for SILVER based on historical ratio movements and other variables?........SILVERBUGS......Maybe "al44" could be the starter of the board and those of us who like SILVER as well as GOLD can join in?..........SILVERBUGS?
NEXT MAJOR MOVE IN GOLD BEGINNING?......
....I posted yesterday what I believe is the beginning of the next major move up in GOLD.....January 15th beginning?.....Looked good today!
Lucky YOU al44 on GOLD purchase at those prices........
......Imagine that you could buy GOLD at less than half its current price back in early 2000's.....You say your stocked up and now focusing on SILVER?.....The GOLD/SILVER ratio suggests that SILVER has some catching up to do.....I think the historical ratio is about 43:1....so if GOLD is heading higher and the ratio moves closer to historical.....SILVER could have bouts of outperformance percentagewise to GOLD.....Sounds like you know what your doing.....Good Luck!