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"I see no reason why someone would want a Windows tablet *in addition to* a Windows PC."
[Really? There are lots of reasons but the biggest one is total compatibility across devices. Why wouldn't everyone want this? I want to be able to run everything on my tablet that I run on my desktop. I also want Android on it. Then I have the best of all possible worlds. And then I'm going to want full-blown Windows on my smartphone as well. I want consistent applications across every single device.]
"Once Intel has the right products, then the company can execute such an "Order 66" strategy. Until then, we're sitting ducks."
[Not really. The smartphone wars are going to continue for a very long time. Because they turn over so quickly, there is not a particular problem with missing any given cycle. And there are some very important fundamental dynamics in play.
TSMC's dividends have exceed their free cash flow for all of the last 4 years. They and the rest of the ARM foundries are currently being crushed by their CapEx needs. The ARM foundries are having to spend a huge percentage of their revenues on CapEx in the attempt to get to FinFET. Intel is in control of this dynamic. So, while Intel is moving steadily ahead, the ARM foundries are having huge trouble catching up and are bankrupting themselves at the same time. As I've said many times, Qualcomm, Nvidia and AMD have a fabrication problem. They don't have reliable state-of-the-art fabrication. This is true for Apple as well.
It's quite possible the CapEx requirements will drop TSMC out of the state-of-the-art fab category into second tier status leaving only Intel and Samsung. This would give Intel a huge competitive advantage in smartphones and mobility.
The ARM foundries also have economic problems and margins problems at 20nm and will have the same problem with FinFET because theirs is a half-step. Intel does not have either of these problems. And Intel will have leadership in density.
Because of these very fundamental manufacturing, technology, and economic issues, ARM fabrication's future is problematic at best. And this is not to mention capacity problems. We will see a train wreck with 20nm when all the top players start to scrap for scarce production. These problems will affect all areas, including smartphones.
Most of Intel's smartphone problems will be solved in 6-12 months. Most of ARM's fabrication problems won't ever be solved and they are getting worse each day. To solve them they need time, money and technology. They don't have enough of any of them.
It's pretty easy to see how this ends.]
"Semiconductor Ecosystem!
Daniel Nenni 07-07-2013 "
[Oh, please - don't ever expect me to look at or consider any of Nenni's Intel bashing work. If you think any of his stuff is credible then I would prefer to never have any discussions with you about anything.]
"The vast majority of tablet usage is, guess what, GAMES. Graphics performance is exceptionally important in tablets and, arguably, phones. Just ask Apple - the world's most successful consumer electronics company that defined these markets."
[Yeah, but the K1 doesn't mesh with a whole lot of the games market. The K1's primary benefit is in high-end games and most tablet consumers don't do high-end games. Also no one is going to do high-end games on a tablet 8 inches or smaller and this is most of the tablet market now. And no one is going to do high-end games on a smartphone. So, this is not a broad gaming solution.
Also a lot of people will want Windows and Android. You keep trying to throw cold water on this idea but it happens to be true. I want a dual O/S system and I haven't found anyone (other than you) who doesn't. All thing being equal there is absolutely no reason not to have both. But the K1 isn't a dual O/S solution.
So, there is a huge part of the market that the K1 isn't appropriate for. Anandtech didn't think they would get any significant smartphone wins with it.
In other word, it is a niche product. A very nice niche product to be sure if the finished product meets the specs but still a niche product.
And the high-end graphics market isn't an area that Intel has even attempted to compete for yet. Intel has been very satisfied with and done very well with eating graphics market share on an incremental basis year after year. So, I don't really see the K1 impacting Intel to any significant degree.
It's a nice piece of work but not a broad market solution. It's a good solution for high-end games who want a large tablet and for gaming boxes and that's pretty much it.]
"Pointing out your level of maturity is simply an observation based on your own commentary. Asking me if I'm from Planet Earth has no rationality to it, which leaves us with a legitimate ad hom attack."
LOL, so you don't see any of your own remarks as adolescent, just mine. Convenient.
Whatever.
I just don't get you and Ash. I see a lot of generalizations but not really much substance to your complete turn around on Intel. I don't see any quantifications in a financial sense.
Everything you are unhappy about is restricted primarily to smartphones which is at this point an insignificant part of Intel's revenue base.
A lot of criticism relates to being late rather than not having the right products or approach. Again without quantification and without any assessment of how late the competition is. I mean, my god, look at ARM's fabrication roadmap issues. Neither of you has touched on any of those issues in the midst of blazing criticism of Intel on being late.
You say we should base this on the facts. I agree. Maybe you would like to post enough of them backing up your new positions so we can get to a financial quantification.
Because so far you have failed to make your case in a substantive manner.
A lot of your change in position seems related to the Tegra K1. I don't get this either. It's mainly a graphics advance and one that doesn't have much impact on Intel. Maybe you can explain this too.
I will do my best to behave like an adult in spite of the fact that you and Ash seem to be mostly driven by emotion in what I've heard from you lately.
You seem like a really bright guy which makes your sudden 180 turn even more incomprehensible to me. I'd like to know what I'm missing.
And you blame this 100 percent on Intel and 0 percent on Google?
Chinese vendors plan tablets loaded with both Android and Windows
PCWorld-by Michael Kan-Jan 7, 2014Share
The upcoming tablet will use an Intel Bay Trail quad-core processor and has a ... An on-screen button lets users switch between Android and ...
And do you really believe that Clovertrail+ systems aren't going to be updated to Bay Trail? Really???
Also I got a laugh out of you saying:
"feel free to debate based on factual evidence, rather than ad hom attacks."
immediately after you said:
"You may have an issue with reading comprehension and/or maturity."
Don't you think you should follow your own rules?
"Intel has yet to announce any significant designs on Bay Trail. It's not a bad part, and it should do quite well as a low end Windows PC. However, that will do nothing to expand Intel's presence in the mobile space, and there are no designs available yet on Android."
[I'm sorry, but can you tell me what planet you are living on? Because this is not true on planet Earth.
No designs on Bay Trail???
No Android designs???
I think you and Ash need to check your water supply because I think you have both lost your minds.]
Smartphones are just one piece of the puzzle. And we are heading into the next level of computing where smartphones are going to be a smaller piece of the puzzle.
Tired: Smartphones
Maturing market, decreasing margins, and only incremental improvements. We aren't going to see any gotcha applications.
Wired: The Internet of Things, Augmented Reality, Virtual Reality, 3D Images and Printing, Speech and Gestures as Input, and the Beginning of the Age of True Artificial Intelligence
The evolution to the next level of computing is upon us and this is where the real growth is - not in smartphones. Not that smartphones won't be a part of it but that is all they will be is a part of it.
As we saw on Monday, Intel is well-positioned for a leadership position in the next level of computing with technologies across the gamut that will manifest important new revenue streams.
We will rapidly move now from individual devices into a sea of processors and connectivity.
"If they can break into mobile and then just keep making non-trivial progress year-after-year, then I will be happy. I'm just waiting for that initial break-in."
[I see - you regard 40 million tablets as not meeting your "initial break-in" standard. Nor do you apparently regard any of the quite successful tablet releases to date as progress.
ARM just got its third downgrade in a short period of time. Apparently there are a number of people who do regard Intel's progress in mobility as significant.]
What part of "an early Q2 production start" is it possible to misinterpret? Production is slated to start in Q1.
"So if everyone wants it, why do you think it's delayed? Obviously it's either the design or the process, but he said Intel was happy with the yields, so what's left?"
[BK said they were happy with the yields because the problem had been resolved. He described the problem and its resolution quite clearly in the CC. Why don't you just read his explanation instead of continuing to speculate?]
"Even an early Q2 production start coincides with Q3 launch."
[In the conference call they stated that production would start in Q1 and they would make up the delay very quickly. Why do you keep saying otherwise?]
"Overall, not a bad quarter. Certainly, not the disaster some were predicting, and this is still in advance of a much improved set of new products...."
[I agree. I think this is the bottom and Intel moves up from here throughout 2014 based on a strong roadmap and a robust product pipeline.]
It didn't have anything to do with what Nenni said.
Did you actually listen to what was said about the delay? I think you need to go back and listen to it again.
Salient point:
BK said they would make up the production loss due to the delay very quickly and it wouldn't push Skylake back at all.
I don't understand all this moaning and groaning over a delay that will be made up quickly.
"This was a very painful earnings call to listen to and I fully expect the shares will trade much lower during the week. C'est la vie."
[You must have listened to a different conference call than the one I listened to. I didn't come away with any of the negative conclusions that you did.]
Really? I can't see much to like about Broadcom other than (perhaps being oversold). What am I missing?
I'm certainly not going to get excited about their 64-bit server effort.
The last I heard they had lost market share at Samsung for their baseband processors.
BK indicated in the conference call that Broadwell production would start in Q1, but would quickly make up the production lost from the quarter delay.
He also commented that customers wanted Broadwell as soon as possible (to do fanless Core products) and the Intel wanted to make Broadwell available as soon as possible.
This was today. So, why do you think Q2/Q3? Do you know something that Brian doesn't?
"Why are all the resident Intel stooges silent on this issue? Why are they HIDING? Credibility issues? Embarrassment? Shame? Stunned Disbelief??"
[I think you just haven't used enough caps to get our attention yet. Fake outrage is best presented in ALL CAPS. Everyone knows that...]
Intel is doubling tablet sales on a quarterly basis.
And the main reason Windows 8 hasn't taken off is because good tablet technology is just now arriving. A lot of people have been waiting for a good Windows 8 tablet solution.
Windows 8 is a mobility product.
Dual boot is also a great capability and will help to drive Intel tablet solutions.
I believe we will start to see much broader Windows 8 acceptance from here on out. But RT is done...
I don't think we will see any 20nm smartphone production this year. Not sure about 2014 either in any kind of volumes. And this is without any of the cost considerations. We know the economics are getting worse for the foundries with each shrink.
ARM really needed to have volume production on 20nm now in order to stay competitive with Intel.
As the superiority of the Intel roadmap has become more apparent, so has the effect on the stock prices.
Some facts about the differential (ARM stock price minus Intel's stock price):
37 days ago: $25.95
32 days ago: $23.09
27 days ago: $21.32
22 days ago: $19.60
17 days ago: $16.00
12 days ago: $15.56
7 days ago: $13.73
Yesterday: $10.97
If the decline in the differential continues at the same rate as the last 37 days, the stock prices would be the same on July 18th. It might not seem likely but neither did the fifteen dollar decrease over the last 37 days.
What has produced this hugely dramatic change? Increased perception of competition from Intel is quickly eroding ARM's P/E ratio. Why hasn't Intel's P/E gone up dramatically? It would only make sense. Well, you would have to ask the statistically-challenged analysts at Wall Street's largest firms. They seem to be totally unaware that the tipping point and the end of the ARM era have arrived.
"What would be the point, unless they had orders, or were reasonably confident that putting the capacity in place would result in new orders?"
[Often in business management has to choose the best of options - even if there isn't confidence in what is viewed as the best choice. In highly competitive businesses it is sometimes necessary to take large risks in order to survive. It could be one of these situations...]
Dunno about the appeal of Qualcomm tablets.
I know what the appeal of the iPad is.
I know what the appeal of Intel dual boot tablets will be.
Graphics performance in the Qualcomm tablets could be an advantage but will that be enough?
Also I think the problem for Qualcomm at year-end might be the increased perception of the end of the ARM era. I was a bit shocked by the 6 percent drop in ARM today. Of course I think that ARM is over-valued but it hasn't demonstrated that kind of weakness in previous drops. If anything like this rate of decline continues it is bound to leave a mark on ARM's reputation by the end of the year especially with the arrival of Intel's 14nm production.
What part of the tablet market do you suppose high-end Android products from all manufacturers will command?