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no guess until Thursday or Friday...
so we watch...LJ
Bad Karma has killed tech investors...
flight to the exits should subside...
Revenue, profits, and spending appear
to be still coming in strong...
Gonna be a Whale of a bounce up
when the sellers are washed out...
peon thesis, of course...
so we watch...LJ
COC...Tropical forecasters need to sell ad time...
COC,,,until a center of circulation develops
within any tropical wave, there can't
be any accurate modeling...
No COC forming is what everyone wants
to see with vacations winding down...
So we watch...LJ
'Debby does D.C.' is playing on euro
model tonight...
'Debbie does Mobile' was playing on
euro model last night...
'Debbie does Mobile' now playing on
GFS model tonight...
GFS model aired no show last night...
That's all folks........
So we watch...LJ
You could sell your share of mstr
and buy a share of some other
tech companies that dropped...
You have options on what to do...
Selling is always harder than buying...
They make those SELL keys so tiny...
So we watch...LJ
CAAS may drop 80 cents Wednesday open
when it goes ex dividend...
but missing another 5% Monday
is pure dee bad timing...
Sure don't believe that the share price
will hold at the ex dividend start point
though,,,
which leads the idea of freezing it...
still a decent company, especially if
it can be bot cheaper again later...
So we watch...LJ
Etrade has a savings account paying
a higher rate than that...
guess you actually get it from M.S...
Pays to shop around...
You may not want to lock it up long...
So we watch...LJ
2.99/gallon price at Wally World pumps
on Sunday...
busy service station but the store
was slow in mid afternoon...
surprised me, but there were still
folks shopping...
Still not seeing a reason on highways
for the demand numbers being put out
for gasoline since the 4th weekend...
Are you stock piling cheap fuel ahead
of election outcomes?...
Stores are slow at times because folks
have to spend for back to school soon...
Don't let that be a spooky thingy...
So we watch...LJ
Buzzards are circling up there over me,
and not you...
so we watch...LJ
Accuweather showing nil rain chance 08/05,
Monday and 08/06, Tuesday in
southeast...
So that haven't bot into a lonely
Euro ensemble track of cane coming
into LA, lower Alabama yet...
Rain probability for southern Florida or
eastern Florida still might rise with a
tropical wave...
Which could slow travel activity...
Ocean wave moving rain toward New
York and further up east coast starting
Monday evening still looks possible...
Which could slow some travel activity...
So we watch...LJ
Ms. Haley as Secretary of State might be
tough enough to get some world
unrest toned down...
That kind of pre-choice and messaging
on it could help the Trump campaign...
Karma is already hanging hopes on
getting Israel to back down as a
point to dangle for voters...
And it is looking a little bleak as a
possible banner to wave now...
Hard to be in the Dem party and get
main eco driver cut off to it...
So we watch...LJ
Illegal or legal? occupied territory being
cast in spot light...
lol, hard to be a politician in an unstable
and ever changing world...
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2024/7/29/israels-war-on-gaza-live-israel-forces-palestinians-into-14-of-gaza-un
12m ago (04:15 GMT)
Outrage after Harris, Wong refer to Majdal Shams as an Israeli town
Legal experts have criticised statements from US Vice President Kamala Harris and Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong that described Majdal Shams in the Golan Heights as an Israeli town, although it is located in territory that is internationally recognised as part of Syria.
Israel occupied two-thirds of the strategic Golan Heights plateau after capturing it in the Six-Day War in 1967, and annexed the territory in 1981.
Adil Haque, a law professor at Rutgers University, said Harris’s condemnation of the attack on the Golan Heights was “entirely appropriate” but “recognition of Israel’s illegal annexation of the Golan Heights is not”.
In Australia, Rawan Arraf, the executive director of the Australian Centre for International Justice, quoted Wong’s tweet and said: “Majdal Shams is not an ‘Israeli’ town. It is a Syrian town in the occupied Syrian Golan […] is Australia into recognising annexed illegally occupied territory now? Would that apply to Crimea and eastern Ukraine?”
It will get a few ticks up on oil price
to make someone some money...
take the easy oil sector profits...
So we watch...LJ
AOL pops up plea for Kamala donations
whenever you send email now...
Shouldn't it Legally have to pop up
choice of candidate donations when
they invade email forwarding privacy?...
Happened 3 times on Friday alone while
I was working...disrupted productivity...
So we watch...LJ
what is 6g?, net reply...ask China...
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202407/1315954.shtml#:~:text=First%2C%20China%20has%20built%20the,performance%20of%20the%20communication%20system.
we are protected from it...
so we watch...LJ
NVDA is still up about 19% since date
that they revealed forward split...
Hit up over 35% by the split date...
Split did help those share prices..
Did you know?...that ANSS is working
on 6G projects with NVDA?...
May I ask?...what is 6G?...
So we watch...LJ
Atlantic buzz is to sell stuff in Florida
at this time...still dusty...
storm hitting northeast above
Jersey is the watch zone...
'weather is local'...
So we watch...LJ
I prefer the conservative forward p/e ratio
approach to valuation...
$8/shares of EPS is possible for
4th quarter, 2024, results due 08/06...
forward year average to figure then is
$8 x 4 = $32/share EPS annually...
32 x 30 p/e = $960 price...
That is the conservative look with
more revenue growth expected in
2025,,,but we have no guidance yet...
SMCI could find new support base
around $950 to $1,000 with $8/share EPS...
Traders sold SMCI last week when the
technical price broke down below 800...
They have probably reentered already
around the 680 to 700 level of support
first achieved in February, 2024...
Back then it took less than a week to get
from 680 to 1,000...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI, figuring out where another 152% increase
in revenue is Plotted from is already
confusing enough to guess on...
https://venturebeat.com/ai/by-embracing-liquid-cooling-ai-powerhouse-supermicro-enables-30-more-computing-power-with-the-same-power-budget/
from first paragraph...
Supermicro revenue grew by 200% year
over year in the third fiscal quarter, and it’s
expected to grow another 152% by the
end of the year
Folks throwing in when The forward split
may actually come adds more confusion...
Around 15 million float, other than insiders
and institutions. priced at 800/share
would be about 12 billion $$...
That isn't small change for small investors
to move alone whether SMCI does a split
or doesn't...
It's the bigger money that needs convincing...
Shouldn't be long till the new guidance coming
out does the convincing from the attitude
of the CEO in past month...
Google didn't have bad earnings this past week...
This has by far been the weirdest week that
I remember watching in a long time...
And all the money being tossed out on
politics now isn't hurting economy no
matter what any candidates say that might
depress folks...
SMCI borrowing money last week for
expanding seems to increase odds on
a forward split as soon as August earnings
release date...peon opinion...
So we watch...LJ
Have you started over drinking corn liquor?...
that is to answer 2 messages...
been whupped and feel whupped...
so we watch...LJ
that is why they they offer the text
of the video also...
and why the article link was sent
to read...
unaudible...
as long as they can count...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI has an upbeat CEO in new video...
Venture Beat interview on Ai infrastructure
at scale is video to watch...
https://www.supermicro.com/en/solutions/ai-deep-learning?utm_campaign=VentureBeat&utm_content=301516143&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-374598930
07/23/24 article link on the subject...
https://venturebeat.com/ai/by-embracing-liquid-cooling-ai-powerhouse-supermicro-enables-30-more-computing-power-with-the-same-power-budget/
from first paragraph...
Supermicro revenue grew by 200% year
over year in the third fiscal quarter, and it’s
expected to grow another 152% by the
end of the year
plus, wait for it...
About 1,000 of that number offers a liquid
cooling solution – and they’re ramping up
right now to ship about 2K liquid-cooled
racks a month.
CEO stated in video they are expecting to
hit, 2,000 rack target in 3 to 4 weeks of
the liquid cooled racks...[big boys]...
oil price, they may try to bring price
down from the promo hints out from
campaign trail on Thursday...
Already trimmed all sails in anticipation
of that potential,,,
peace on earth, la, la, la...
short term move for me, because I'm
hooked on following loser sectors...
May see a go fund me page out there
soon to pay me to stop watching tech...
So we watch...LJ
Real estate financing didn't start freezing up
in 2008 until late summer, 2008...
After 6 or 8 months of big money
closing their wallets...
Real estate prices now need a hard
reset down anyway...
might need be all bad,,,
Folks that can't afford to buy homes
anymore will be able to afford them
when they get their jobs back again...
You see, I can be an optimist...
Just reply to this post with,
'I like Indians'...
you may get rewarded and have your
name taken off spam calling lists...
very valuable reward...
Rich Indians are gonna try to buy this
U.S. election in 2024...
Karma and Biden saved them enough
on oil to buy two elections...
So we watch...LJ
01/03/08, Obama Iowa win started similar selloff
as the Bad Karma crowning has done...
01/03/08...Obama won his first
primary in Iowa...
01/03/08...Dow close 12,820
01/06/08...Dow close 11,378
was a volatile down week...
01/02/09...Dow close 7,062
-5758 points or 45% drop...
misread it and didn't think it would
turn so bad so quick again...
Money that was more saturated in tech
in 2024 has flew the damn coop...
Unbelievable how we get wiped out
so fast...
U.S. Dollar should be going down and
not gold...
BUT, it's not too late to save everyone from
that repeat of history...
So we watch...LJ
NVDA/NVDL has been quick way to lose
more money...
and we knew Ai was dead...
so we watch...LJ
58 million shares don't need a forward split
when there is little demand for
the smaller amount of shares...
so we watch...LJ
SMCI $711, 4.7 billion to 5.1 billion revenue
target range for 4th quarter, 2024 versus
over 3.6 billion in 3rd quarter, 2024...
about 6.56 eps fully diluted in 3rd quarter...
about 7.60 to 8.40 eps target for 4th quarter...
Earnings date is set...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/supermicro-announce-fourth-quarter-full-201500507.html
SMCI is gearing up operations for a
potential 25 billion revenue rate in
the near future...
Only about 57 million share out versus
mega share counts by bigger tech names
is why p/e ratio is lagging others while
the share price has a high number...
15 billion going to 25 billion revenue change
might be about a 65% increase,
on a company below 25 forward p/e ratio...
So we watch...LJ
NVDA, NVDL, SK Hynix down big today
even with robust earnings...
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/000660.KS/
highest quarterly profit since 2018...
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-supplier-sk-hynixs-q2-231333291.html
how bout ahead?...
AI DEMAND
Prices have been lifted by explosive demand
for high-end DRAM chips such as HBM, chips
used in data centre servers and gadgets
that run on-device AI services
In May, SK Hynix CEO Kwak Noh-Jung said
its HBM chips were sold out for this year
and almost sold out for 2025.
SMCI is like the horse that the chip,
or saddles, will go on...or donkey?...
So we watch...LJ
NVDL bot in afterhours with NVDA
looking oversold...
Can you imagine how many calls
brokers are fielding that have clients
invested in NVDA?...
https://stocktwits.com/StreetTrader888/message/580643972
SMCI has been beaten down like a
red headed step child this week...
$1,200 on Wednesday,7th leaves a big
gap to there if the price doesn't rebound
ahead of the earnings on Tuesday,6th...
IBM, with a good report, is so far the only
company strong enough to keep the
short attack on tech at bay...
Shorting racketeers on the street have
made a TON of money this week on
put positions in tech...
So we watch...LJ
NVDL sneaked up on and grabbed some
shares in after hours...
Sssshhh, have to be very quiet when
hunting rabbits...
It would take a hell of a hop to make
up for huge ICMS loss for Wednesday
alone, not counting rest of week...
Read the tea leaves backwards on it...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI,,, 'Welcome to the Big Show'...
SMCI earnings date release has no
projection of reduction below their
target ranges for 2024...
SMCI only made 400 million in
3rd quarter of 2024...that run rate
puts them at about 25 forward p/e...
Analyst estimates for 4th quarter of
2024 are above that run rate...
SMCI just borrowed more money, are
buyers not paying them fast enough,
or is the growth of orders outpacing the
flow of revenue back to the company?...
Took another bite off that smaller red
apple of SMCI on Wednesday with a
guess of strong orders...
So we watch...LJ
SMCI dumped hard by S&P plus Nasdaq shorts
this week...
'Welcome to the Big Show'...
take a small miracle now to see
$1,200 target this week...
But if you happened to miss it?
Oil stocks were also shorted down with
oil price up after unexpectedly strong
inventory release came out...
hello, ANSS was also shorted down,
which increased arbitrage potential...
Drought over just in time to be broke...
So we watch...LJ
Gaemi, TSM should have paid workers for
three days off for typhoon,
as much money as they are making...
a day before, day of, and day after...
did bad karma hit tech prices?...
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crg41eg517vo
Saw a report on power workers a few
days before and a lot of the energy grid
may not be above ground in Taiwan...
Typhoon is projected to move fast, so it
shouldn't have too much flooding to
threaten that , still gonna rain a lot...
Philippines were walloped...
So we watch...LJ
Typhoon Gaemi forecast track is for Wednesday
pm landfall of about 6 PM EST...U.S...
which is about 12 AM GMT on Thursday
in Taiwan...
https://www.worldtimebuddy.com/
https://www.google.com/maps/@24.655501,119.6369319,7z/data=!4m2!21m1!1s%2Fg%2F11w2m32m1g?entry=ttu
Hsinchu City is across the island on left
side of forecast track...
This should put right side of eye as most
impactful like in Atlantic because the typhoon
is in the Northern Hemisphere...
A little atmospheric geography...
Many folks watching this is probable...
So we watch...LJ
Iceland bonds looking better for a safe haven
overnight...
https://tradingeconomics.com/iceland/government-bond-yield
Iceland thinks energy independence
is cool...
So we watch...LJ
Overseas sellers seeing karma as new nominee
for Dem party today are dumping
shares hard of U.S. companies...
which is over night for us peons...
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Selling picked up over past two hours...
Politics is on topic when you are losing
money on changes...
Ai spending guidance is still strong...
So we watch...LJ
TSLA salvaged better quarterly revenues by
sacrificing margins as expected...
Between two growth waves now?...
At what price after much more price
dropping, do you gamble on another
growth wave ever happening?...
Sellers will move the money somewhere...
All the other tech companies dropping in
sympathy for TSLA was a big surprise
in after hours...
So we watch...LJ
This article will run off oil investors...
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Kuwait-Looks-To-Nearly-Double-Production-After-Major-Oil-Find.html
A country with almost double the
U.S oil reserves with about 60% to
70% lower production costs...
Biden steering oil to India from Russia
at up to 60% of costs for U.S. buyers
is paying off now...
Those donations to the Dem campaign are
pouring in now...
You can bet they aren't gonna tell where
that big foreign money is coming from....
U.S. folks are too broke to donate after
3 1/2 years of high prices from Dems...
So we watch...LJ
Buy a hunting license for this winter and
then put out potted tomato plants...
time for a greenhouse if you want
extra meat this winter...
been plucking tomato worms for
three days in a row,,,it is like the
rain drops them on the plants...
and they can camouflage like big foot
and be unspottable...villian worms...
so we watch...LJ
Oil companies are still priced and moved
like tech runs on wine and love...
NOG took a beating and silly me
didn't have any calls sold, but the
drop is and was a shock...
WTI is one to be wary of thru early
August 1st week of month...A low
may develop off southern gulf coast
late next week to be monitored...
The low would most likely only cause some
caution of possible rig activity reduction
for few days if it was very strong...
Very, very unlikely to affect anything else,
but causing any production down time off
Alabama to Mississippi coast line might
reduce revenue,,,
And all only hypothetical right now...
But more rain coming ashore anywhere
won't improve fuel demand...
So we watch...LJ