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new short int numbers apwr
11/28/2008 2,640,322 993,308 2.658110
11/14/2008 2,712,061 932,286 2.909044
nice move yesterday, APWR is approching 31 day moving at 4.75 area then we will see the move I've been waiting for, with news I hope
www.wind4me.com APWR, thanks to skibare!!!!
the current price is NOT the reality down the road………BUY APWR MONDAY with both hands wide open!!!!
I am not sure a lot of people realize just how significant a player APWR can become in the wind turbine business if it can execute its’ game plan. Let’s say that APWR right now was operating at full capacity at its’ Shenyang facility (without the 30% planned expansion) as well as operating at full capacity at the Bayan City facility (still to be completed). If all that capacity was on line now, which it is not, APWR would be producing 1800 MW of wind turbine output. In 2007, Vestas, the world’s largest wind turbine seller, supplied 4503 MW of wind turbine power. Those 4503 MWs amounted to 23% of the world market share. GE was in second place with 3283 MW, Gamesa supplied 3047, Enercon 2769, and Suzlon was in fifth place with 2082 MW. If APWR was delivering the 1800 MW it plans to produce, it would have been the sixth largest wind turbine producer in the world in 2007.
To put all this in another context, the current APWR plant in Shenyang has the capacity by itself, to produce 1125 MW of wind turbine power. In 2007, the largest China turbine manufacturer, Goldwin, produced 830 MW. Goldwin is not only the largest turbine builder in China, but it is also the 8th largest worldwide.
Let’s try to convert the numbers above into dollar flow. APWR says they expect the first two plants (Shenyang and Bayan) to be operating at full capacity in 2010 and producing 1800 MWs of the large wind turbines. Full capacity is often hard to achieve so let’s say that the two plants will produce 1260 MWs (70 % of 1800) of the large 2.7 MW turbines and a small amount of the smaller turbines which we won’t even consider here. In my earlier post I suggested that turbines of the 2.7 MW size will sell for $1.5 million per MW (in 2010) so the 1260 MWs will generate $1.890 Billion dollars in revenue. If the DPG business adds another $1 Billion in 2010 (which should not be too tough since the current backlog is $789 million without the Thai contract), then total 2010 revenue is $2.890 Billion. If we then use a very conservative 8% net margin, we earn $231 million or $6.42 per share on 36 million shares. By 2010 we hopefully will be back to more normal PEs and I will let you apply whatever PE you think applicable. But a 15x PE puts the stock price at $96.
At this point you should keep a few things in mind. First, the 2010 big turbine actual production could be well above 1260 KWs since I used just 70% of expected production and did not include any of the production capacity of the Phase 2 expansion at Shenyang. Second, I did not include any small turbine (750 KW) production in my projections at all, but there surely will be a bunch. And finally, the 8% net margin is unrealistically low because the DPG business is already operating at net margins higher than that, and the company has said the net margin for the wind turbines will be in the 10 – 12% range as they begin to get components from China sources. If you replace the 8% margin with a 10% margin, the 2010 EPS becomes $8.03 instead of $6.42, and a 15x PE now puts the stock price at $120.
Great spot only the leading CEOs, and look who they are speeking with some top notch people
:20pm – 4:20pm CEO Crystal Ball Session
In this session gain first–hand insights from leading CEOs who are leading the charge in cleantech investing and adopting cleantech into their products and operations. We will discuss the benefits, challenges, and drivers that impact executives’ cleantech business decisions – along with where they see cleantech making the biggest strides in China going forward.
Speakers:
Nicholas Parker, Chairman and Managing Partner, Cleantech Group
Chris Bongars, CEO, Sustainasia
Michael Christiansen, President, Novazymes (China) Investments
Lu Jin Xiang, CEO, A-Power
Andrew Chan, Partner, China GreenStar Fund
Yang Zheqing, CEO, Shanghai Center for Scientific and Technological Exchange with Foreign Countries (SSTEC)
Moderator: Dallas Kachan, Managing Director, Cleantech Group
apwr http://cleantech.com/cleantechforum/shanghai08/agenda.cfm
scroll down
check this out
http://cleantech.com/cleantechforum/shanghai08/agenda.cfm
scroll down
apwr curent short position
short avg vol days to cover
11/14/2008 2,712,061 932,286 2.909044
10/31/2008 2,926,779 1,319,913 2.217403
10/15/2008 2,369,108 2,386,519 1.000000
9/30/2008 4,491,624 1,153,036 3.895476
9/15/2008 5,471,325 1,094,715 4.997945
8/29/2008 4,447,935 1,207,752 3.682821
8/15/2008 3,495,556 783,755 4.460011
7/31/2008 3,115,857 763,884 4.078966
7/15/2008 2,687,849 1,001,571 2.683633
6/30/2008 2,267,861 1,138,355 1.992227
6/13/2008 2,257,419 566,785 3.982849
5/30/2008 1,591,175 525,014 3.030729
5/15/2008 1,314,231 408,519 3.217062
I dont even know why, but I'm still holding. I called tom last nite and told him, he was pulling his hair out wondering where the hell that kinda of shares came from.
can't believe he didn't come to me first and offer me the shares I would of took them in a new york second.
we may never know why anyone sells or buys on emotions
speed
GE and India where mentioned in the conference call.
GE Bets on India Rail, Power Shortage to Meet $8 Billion Target
By Subramaniam Sharma and Abhay Singh
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- General Electric Co., the world’s biggest provider of power-generation equipment, is betting that India’s electricity shortages and the need to replace aging locomotives will help triple sales there in the next two years.
Revenue from windmills, steam turbines and diesel locomotives may help it meet the 2010 local sales target of $8 billion, Tejpreet Singh Chopra, 38, chief executive officer of GE’s India unit, said in an interview in New Delhi. GE had $2.6 billion of revenue from India last year.
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said India will need to spend $500 billion through 2012 to build roads, ports, airports, utilities, schools and hospitals. GE gave its 2010 India forecast about two years ago, and Chopra stands behind that projection even as India’s economic growth slows to 7.5 percent in the current fiscal year.
“The reason why my strategy hasn’t changed is because the market dynamics in India haven’t changed,” Chopra said. “The market and demand are there.”
GE said last week it is in discussions with sovereign-wealth funds, including China Investment Corp. and Government of Singapore Investment Corp., on developing partnerships for infrastructure projects. GE, based in Fairfield, Connecticut, has declined 59 percent this year in New York trading after twice cutting its full-year profit forecast.
‘Fairly Robust’
Finance Minister Palaniappan Chidambaram has said India’s economy will rebound to 9 percent growth next year. Asia’s third- biggest economy’s growth outlook is “fairly robust” even as the global recession deepens, Chidambaram said yesterday, highlighting the strength of local consumer spending.
GE, which installed India’s first hydropower plant in 1902, is considering creating factories in the country to build wind and steam turbines, Chopra said.
India’s demand for power may almost triple to as much as 335,000 megawatts by 2017, from 120,000 megawatts now, if the economy continues to grow at an average 8 percent for the next decade, consulting firm McKinsey & Co. has estimated in a report.
To meet this requirement, the world’s second-most populous nation will need generation capacity of as much as 440,000 megawatts, McKinsey said. Half of the $600 billion in investments the country needs by 2017 is required to set up generation capacity, it said.
‘Big’ Opportunity
“The opportunity is big,” Chopra said in the interview yesterday. “The regulatory framework is now in place to encourage a lot of private players in power production. Now is the right time for us to bring the best technologies.”
GE is betting India will add more renewable sources of energy. The government in June said it will promote the generation of energy from renewable sources such as solar and wind as part of its plan to mitigate damage from the changing climate.
“Forget the price of oil, climate change is a far bigger issue,” Chopra said. “Therefore, we as a company will focus on renewables.”
GE is counting on continued government incentives to back wind power as a clean alternative to conventional sources. Starting in 2004, Indian states mandated utilities to buy as much as 10 percent of their power from renewable sources, and companies can claim 80 percent depreciation on equipment costs in the first year.
Size, Growth
“It is a combination of the size of the market, the growth of the market and the incentives the government is giving in order to move toward more efficient windmills,” Chopra said. “The incentive program and the market has developed to the point” where it makes sense to set up local plants.
GE is considering plants in India that will build wind turbines that generate power of 1.5 megawatts and above, Chopra said.
The company will build a factory in collaboration with Indian Railways, the state monopoly, and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., also government-run, if it wins a contract to supply diesel locomotives, Chopra said.
Last month, GE Transportation, a unit of GE, and Bharat Heavy said they will join to compete for a 1,000 diesel locomotive tender issued by Indian Railways, which needs new engines to haul rail cars faster across the world’s seventh- biggest nation by area. GE has been short-listed by Indian Railways to compete.
Joint Venture
The winner of the contract will set up a joint venture company with Indian Railways, the operator of the world’s second- largest rail network, to build the locomotives. Indian Railways will own 26 percent of the venture.
GE and Bharat Heavy are in discussions on the proportion of the stake they will hold, Chopra said. The final bids for the contract are due in the middle of next month, he said.
The locomotive project is key to GE meeting its decade-end India sales target.
“It is a huge focus all the way down from Jeff Immelt to ensure we have the right resources to work on this project,” Chopra said.
Chief Executive Officer Immelt is pursuing work in faster- growing regions overseas as the U.S. enters a recession. The global credit crunch has hurt profit and prompted the company to plan to cut $2 billion in costs next year from its finance division as it prunes the workforce, forms regional units and identifies assets such as overseas home mortgages for possible sale.
GE’s non-finance divisions that include power generation, locomotives and jet engines, will still likely post profit increases, though not at the minimum of 10 percent GE is aiming for, Barclays analyst Robert Cornell wrote in a note to clients Nov. 20.
“The current credit conditions and cautious managements could result in reduced capital expenditures,” said Cornell, who kept his “overweight” rating on the stock. “We think mid-to- high single-digit growth may be more likely.”
To contact the reporters on this story: Subramaniam Sharma in New Delhi at ssharma@bloomberg.net; Abhay Singh in New Delhi at abhaysingh@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 24, 2008 13:43 EST
my speakers dont work, check this out
11/20/08
Coverage Reit/Price Tgt Changed*
Company Ticker Brokerage Firm Ratings Change Price Target
A-Power Energy APWR Jesup & Lamont Buy $29 » $19
A-Power Energy APWR Roth Capital Hold $13 » $10
A-Power Energy APWR Dougherty & Company Buy $10
its probaly 20% full and the saudis are hopeing to get the ins check when they sink it, who would ever know
i forgot i cacth it yet tonight
i was just looking to post that
apwr short interest stats
Settlement Short est Avg Daily Days To Cover
date interest share vol
10/31/208 2,926,779 1,319,913 2.217403
10/15/208 2,369,108 2,386,519 1.000000
9/30/2008 4,491,624 1,153,036 3.895476
9/15/2008 5,471,325 1,094,715 4.997945
8/29/2008 4,447,935 1,207,752 3.682821
8/15/2008 3,495,556 783,755 4.460011
7/31/2008 3,115,857 763,884 4.078966
7/15/2008 2,687,849 1,001,571 2.683633
6/30/2008 2,267,861 1,138,355 1.992227
6/13/2008 2,257,419 566,785 3.982849
5/30/2008 1,591,175 525,014 3.030729
5/15/2008 1,314,231 408,519 3.217062
4/30/2008 1,088,322 287,903 3.780169
4/15/2008 824,284 247,138 3.335319
3/31/2008 323,893 191,492 1.691418
working link in Ibox to website updated
will add some links in the am
later
thats it in a nut shell
I have to relisten to the part when Mark from Roth capital talked and they rattled off some numbers of the current backlog. sounded a lot higher then 789mill
its a hoot but listen carefully
first thing on the agenda is the ibox
****need to find correct link to web site
update news on financials
and the chart need a better one
updated share struture
any body have any thoughts on ibox
i have to re listen to the call
sure would like to know what is in store with GE and Owens Corning, going to listen to the call sveral more times!!
APWR earnings guidance 1.00 2008 2.00 2009
33,700,000 issued shares no dilution expected
share buy back possible in Q4, I believe nothing can be done there till the MOU of 300 mill is turned into a contract.
Believe there is a timing issue there.
China stimulas 580 billion for infrastructure
my thoughts there is they will need energy power sources!!!
12 to 24 month outlook is strong no slowdown is expected
conference call lasted 1 hour Raymond James and Roth Capital, Bentley Capital and others where on the call
mention of Ge and Owens Corning,
(sure need more info there)
think we would of made the 32 cents if it wasn't for the expansion of plants that where and our under construction,,
they reduced margin profits by 3, 4 cents
I advise shareholders to listen to the call
new cfo by year end 8 persons have been interviewed
time for a buy signal from the big boys!!!!
matt you hit the nail on the headn china stimulus is all about infrastructure spending APWR
LVS on fire weeeeee
nice gapper shaping up
DVAX AND APWR strong movers soon
DVAX trending positive today
there valueing the right on DVAX common shares at 6.00 per share
1 hundredth of a common for 1 junior prefered
so that means 100 common 600 dollars for a preferd,
posion pill in place or are we that undervalued!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dvax fits that group, beaten down pretty hard and just announced earnings a few days back
wait till we break the 20 day ma then you see the shorts jump even faster for the swingers
speed
Management's Response: We believe the stock is currently undervalued and are discussing the opportunity to repurchase stock with our lawyers. We will make an announcement if and when a stock repurchase program is implemented.
5% would not be a difficult repurchase
once the finacials are filed quartely this will move fast and swift
hi clay, can you put a chart together on APWR thanks
shaping up nicely added more at the 4.55 area today
patience
google reported good numbers up after hours
apwr 530 540 AH
they need the exposure and they are going for it I have time on my side
apwr pre market runner and there short a few
APWR notes from the conf call
taken from the yahoo board
notes from call 15-Oct-08 10:14 am
Here it is:
-China continues to be committed to alternative energy and will be taking policy actions in that direction.
- 2008 earnings of $1.04 - $1.34 per share.
- 2009 earnings of $70 million or $2 per shsre
- $800 million backlog
- $300 million deal with Thailand to close in 30 days...this number is not in the backlog number above.
- 2 production lines ready to go at wind plant...capacity of 300 2.7MW and 420 750kw turbines per year.
- 2nd wind turbine facility to be completed mid-2009.
- they expect both plants to be running full out in 2010 generating $2 BILLION in revenues
- they have components locked up for 10 2.7 Mw and 30 750kh turbines.
- will recognize revs for 10 2.7 turbines this qtr...the balance of the 55 turbine order will be delivered by July 2009.
- they are securing components for 100 more of the 2.7 MW turbines as we speak.
- margins on both turbines are 8-9%, but this will improve with local sourcing.
- They will be turning more LOI's into contracts, and the 55 turbine order will grow into a larger order.
-they are updating the website and we should see it in 30-45 days.
- They have hired a sarbanes oxley expert to implement these controls, even though they are not required to do so.
- They plan to announce earnings within 45 days of end of quarter, even though they are not required to do so, but they are trying to increase transparency.
- they have appointed a dedicated finance team for financial transparency and reporting.
- There are more dist generation contracts under discussion.
These were the key points. Frankly, this is one of the best investments of a lifetime. Those of you who were looking for a stock buyback are clueless. Capital is king in this economy/market and they need to preserve capital to fund their business, not to support short term traders who are trying to manipulate the situtation to serve their needs.
This company is executing on all cylinders, and the stock WILL follow. At some point rationality will return to equity prices, and APWR will revert to the mean at that point, which means this stock will be over $50 per share...
APWR notes from conf call
taken from the yahoo board
notes from call 15-Oct-08 10:14 am
Here it is:
-China continues to be committed to alternative energy and will be taking policy actions in that direction.
- 2008 earnings of $1.04 - $1.34 per share.
- 2009 earnings of $70 million or $2 per shsre
- $800 million backlog
- $300 million deal with Thailand to close in 30 days...this number is not in the backlog number above.
- 2 production lines ready to go at wind plant...capacity of 300 2.7MW and 420 750kw turbines per year.
- 2nd wind turbine facility to be completed mid-2009.
- they expect both plants to be running full out in 2010 generating $2 BILLION in revenues
- they have components locked up for 10 2.7 Mw and 30 750kh turbines.
- will recognize revs for 10 2.7 turbines this qtr...the balance of the 55 turbine order will be delivered by July 2009.
- they are securing components for 100 more of the 2.7 MW turbines as we speak.
- margins on both turbines are 8-9%, but this will improve with local sourcing.
- They will be turning more LOI's into contracts, and the 55 turbine order will grow into a larger order.
-they are updating the website and we should see it in 30-45 days.
- They have hired a sarbanes oxley expert to implement these controls, even though they are not required to do so.
- They plan to announce earnings within 45 days of end of quarter, even though they are not required to do so, but they are trying to increase transparency.
- they have appointed a dedicated finance team for financial transparency and reporting.
- There are more dist generation contracts under discussion.
These were the key points. Frankly, this is one of the best investments of a lifetime. Those of you who were looking for a stock buyback are clueless. Capital is king in this economy/market and they need to preserve capital to fund their business, not to support short term traders who are trying to manipulate the situtation to serve their needs.
This company is executing on all cylinders, and the stock WILL follow. At some point rationality will return to equity prices, and APWR will revert to the mean at that point, which means this stock will be over $50 per share...
APWR conf notes from yahoo message board
notes from call 15-Oct-08 10:14 am
Here it is:
-China continues to be committed to alternative energy and will be taking policy actions in that direction.
- 2008 earnings of $1.04 - $1.34 per share.
- 2009 earnings of $70 million or $2 per shsre
- $800 million backlog
- $300 million deal with Thailand to close in 30 days...this number is not in the backlog number above.
- 2 production lines ready to go at wind plant...capacity of 300 2.7MW and 420 750kw turbines per year.
- 2nd wind turbine facility to be completed mid-2009.
- they expect both plants to be running full out in 2010 generating $2 BILLION in revenues
- they have components locked up for 10 2.7 Mw and 30 750kh turbines.
- will recognize revs for 10 2.7 turbines this qtr...the balance of the 55 turbine order will be delivered by July 2009.
- they are securing components for 100 more of the 2.7 MW turbines as we speak.
- margins on both turbines are 8-9%, but this will improve with local sourcing.
- They will be turning more LOI's into contracts, and the 55 turbine order will grow into a larger order.
-they are updating the website and we should see it in 30-45 days.
- They have hired a sarbanes oxley expert to implement these controls, even though they are not required to do so.
- They plan to announce earnings within 45 days of end of quarter, even though they are not required to do so, but they are trying to increase transparency.
- they have appointed a dedicated finance team for financial transparency and reporting.
- There are more dist generation contracts under discussion.
These were the key points. Frankly, this is one of the best investments of a lifetime. Those of you who were looking for a stock buyback are clueless. Capital is king in this economy/market and they need to preserve capital to fund their business, not to support short term traders who are trying to manipulate the situtation to serve their needs.
This company is executing on all cylinders, and the stock WILL follow. At some point rationality will return to equity prices, and APWR will revert to the mean at that point, which means this stock will be over $50 per share...