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Loading up steadily at these nice low prices. Buying dips in small amounts for now.
If the price range holds up a couple more days, it'll be time to load up more aggressively.
True, but why does being dark for a year and a half cause the price to drop to triple zips? Because people (justifiably) assumed it meant a further decline in revenues, which had been the trend in the years before that.
When PRs came out last April, they were about a new mask site, and mask sales on existing sites, and revenue guidance for 2019 and 2020. The price jumped because people saw revenues increasing, partially due to the fact that they were reporting at all, but mainly because of what was in the PRs.
I'm not saying the holding period doesn't apply.
I appreciate all that you've done to get this good info out about how fast/slow DA's shares can hit the market.
All I'm saying is that people buying & selling the stock in the open market will value it based on the FUTURE, not the present, so it's useless to argue what today's price should be based on today's share structure.
People will value based on expected revenues, profits and # of shares in 1 year, 2 years, or 5 years or more from now. Sure, it'll take him 16 years to sell all his shares, but that'll be his income for the next 16 years, so he'll sell them. Investors know that, and will adjust their valuation appropriately. I welcome debate on how much to adjust it.
The good news is, it'll be gradual, and he'll be highly motivated to get the share price higher. I like that combination.
The apparent market cap you'll see now has to be adjusted.
Whatever you calculate based on the current number of shares has to be reduced to about 40% of that to account for the announced likely increase in shares, so revenue per share was going to be in the .0060 to .0067 range. Now it'll be more likely in the .0024 to .0027 range (with same revenue levels) after all the share adjustments.
For share price estimates, however, I won't go all the way down to 40% of previous estimates since we won't have those convertible shares looming anymore. That's a big deal, so I'm adjusting my own share price estimations/predictions to around half to two-thirds of previous levels. That still makes this a bargain, IMO, from current levels.
Perhaps true, but the fundamentals calculations right after the RS aren't as important as people's expectations of what they'll be longer term, 1 or 2 years out. That's what will affect the share price.
The Friday price drop has already factored in most of the expected dilution, and perhaps it won't go much further if at all, because the pre-announcement price might have already partially factored in the possibility of the B, C and D share conversions. I think that kept if from taking off.
The good news is, no more looming convertible shares, making future fundamental ratios more predictable. Now the focus can turn to company performance.
There is zero reason to believe that the SS will grow beyond what was stated in the press release, because the company is profitable, and has good cash flow. They have no need to raise money.
But he did not say that an uplisting is going to happen, so the entire premise of the quote is hypothetical.
Also, he did not lie to shareholders on a material issue, so the entire premise of your response is a hypothetical.
Hired April 2020, just as revenues started booming. The extra revenues from then has allowed Danny to hire folks like Brittany to upgrade the customer's experience, as well as a good enough accountant to get the books cleaned up and current.
So, even as the mask sales fade, the company is left in a stronger position than ever before, ready to grow with new web sites built on a more solid foundation.
The BRAV wholesale sites, LeggingsWholesale.com and WomensFashionWholesale.com, have actually been doing very well in terms of steady growth in traffic, better than BRAV's other sites.
Awesome sleuthing! Show some love for LUVI
Things keep moving towards building up new brands.
These kind of patent filings are the necessary foundational building blocks when building something big.
I picked up more today at .0080 and .0077. Can't believe I'm getting them this low.
Revenue / share is projecting to be 0.0060 to 0.0064 for 2020, based on guidance.
That means Price/Sales ratio right now is about 1.5.
Net income / share is projecting to 0.0011 for 2020.
That puts the current price at an EPS of under 9.
This is undervalued even by normal valuation measures.
Yeah, the flip side of that is that I've been in this one too long!
Keep in mind, DA experiments with website concepts all the time, for learning and seeing what might work. Many websites get created, and many websites get abandoned. The most promising ones stick and give us rewards.
Great posts explaining what's going on with BRAV.
The only reality check I'd offer is that the new sites like World of Pets and USA Fashion won't contribute much of anything to Q4 sales.
I think they'll give a small boost to Q1 sales, as lower mask sales will cancel most of the new site gains.
It's Q2 where things could get very interesting.
I was talking about guidance, which is more about assumptions and predictions than calculations.
It's easy to imagine a store owner not giving guidance because they won't have any idea how rapidly the pandemic will end and how rapidly consumer spending will shift as that happens. This is not a situation we've seen before, so past shopping patterns can't be relied upon to predict sales this year.
Here's another example of how refugees escaping life-threatening situations often have the perseverance to succeed in business when others would fold at the first setback.
Danny loves what he's doing and is unafraid, so he'll stick with it.
Agreed. I'm expecting about 1.1 million rev for Q4, based on their full year guidance, but would like to be pleasantly surprised.
I'd expect Q1 to be about the same (my guess) in the 1.1 million area, but that would still be almost 3 times last year's Q1, and would put them around 5.0 million for trailing 12 months. I think Q2 is when we might start seeing significant gains from new sites and other factors.
Nice post. Sounds like we have a lot in common.
Among other things, I also buy from the site to make sure the service is good, and I found the website experience top notch and easy, and delivery was good. It helped convince me to stay strong in my holdings. I do sell a little on the big surges, but then buy right back on the dips. (I have too much tied up in this not to take a little profit when there's a big surge, but that doesn't mean I'm not long-term bullish on the stock.)
I'm also not counting on mask revenue helping much in 2021, but the encouraging thing is Danny showed how amazingly quickly he can jump on a sudden high demand product, getting suppliers and a website up fast. Any new future trends in fashion or pet products, and he'll be right on it.
Are you in a similar business? Online retail?
Here's an interview with DA which was published a few months ago. He touches upon his short and long-term vision.
https://thesiliconreview.com/magazine/profile/bravada-international-next-gen-women-fashion-trends
Nice! Thanks for posting that report. Lots of technical indicators pointing up.
MedicalMasksWholesale.net doesn't seem to be functional, but the other 4 are all operating and doing well, with the 3 most recent ones growing traffic steadily and hitting new traffic highs almost daily.
WorldOfPets.com is the most impressive of the 3 newest ones in terms of traffic levels and growth, and it's the most recent.
Agree that his PRs are weird. He could probably use some advice on what to emphasize vs what to just mention in passing. Mention life-like stuffed animal dogs is OK in passing, as part of a larger point about new and varied inventory, but going into detail about "effigies" makes it look like too much attention is being put on a small, strange market.
But as you said, nobody's ignoring the main business.
We've seen these kind of things from DA before. He tries everything, no matter how strange, and sticks with the things that work. One of these days, one of those weird things will catch on and BRAV will be at the forefront of some craze.
That's interesting about your Q4 numbers also being down.
I wonder if people were just running out of money, with the delay in stimulus checks & unemployment until just after the new year... or perhaps being conservative until they knew help was coming.
Even though the pandemic kept getting worse in Q4, traffic on the mask sites peaked in October and dropped from there. I think there was finally enough supply to meet demand as of October, so everyone bought more than they needed, then sales dropped sharply even as the need increased.
The Feb 1st mask mandates probably boosted traffic & sales again, at least for a little while, but that'll only help Q1. Another help for retail in Q1 will be the January stimulus and resumption of unemployment, so I expect Q1 to stay at Q4 level or slightly better.
Q2 mask sales will drop again, but other stuff will begin the return to post-pandemic normalcy, and the new BRAV sites should start to contribute in a meaningful way mid-year.
In all I expect $1.1m to $1.2m per quarter through Q2, then a rise from there, but what's hard to predict is how fast the rise will be. When there's a quarter that exceeds $1.5m, we should see things blast off.
Here's the thing that Danny does for those who are relatively new:
He throws a whole bunch of stuff at the wall and sees what sticks.
Most of it fails, but some succeed and do well. He drops the failures and doubles down on the successes.
It's basically trial-and-error. This can actually be an effective technique for a smaller company searching for niches, as long as you keep the stakes small at the start and don't stick with a losing idea too long.
Shake it, shake it, baby.
I was indeed pleased to pick up so many sub-penny shares.
Notice how the volume today is much more steady and consistent than the choppiness of recent days.
Indeed, congrats to those who got sub-penny. I keep regretting not having set some super-low bid orders in case people panicked.
Not anymore. I have my low bids in place now... and nibbled at some sub 1.1 cents this morning. Super value at these levels considering we'll see at least .006 per share revenue for the year.
He already did give a forecast of EOY financials last week. It wouldn't make sense to do it again this week, unless they came upon new information and needed to adjust it.
There's an interesting uptrend starting in MedicalMaskSuperstore.com traffic. It had trended steadily down from its mid-November highs through the end of January, but started a significant uptrend over 2 weeks ago, getting halfway back to the November peak.
The only reason I can think of is the new mask mandates on planes and federal properties which started Feb 1st.
Looks like the price is holding up strong. Can't get below 1.2 cents.
People know that fundamentals alone make it worth at least that much, since that price has a Price/Sales below 2, and a PE below 10.
The question is only how much upside from here.
Strong numbers in the financial report would be nice, but what would really send this stock up is news on solid traffic and revenue growth from the new sites created in the last 8 months, from World of Pets to USA Fashion to the wholesale fashion site.
I don't know that the report will break all that down.
I'd really like to see how the wholesale leggings and fashion sites are doing revenue and margin-wise.
Indeed, with any new website that's having success, initially traffic will grow exponentially, then eventually will grow linearly, then eventually level off.
The new BRAV sites are almost all still in the exponential phase. The question is, how long will that last before they go linear, then how long will that last? Time will tell. I like what I see so far.
Nice listing and description of the sites.
I did a look at traffic history for their sites yesterday.
The interesting thing is the relative success of the newer wholesale sites.
There are 3 established leggings sites, which are like the cash cows, getting much more traffic than the other sites, but at levels that aren't growing much lately. OnlyLeggings.com and WorldOfLeggings.com have each been around for 9+ years, and have the highest traffic, but at slowly decreasing levels, while LeggingsWholesale.com is only 3 years old, and started with impressive growth which has settled a bit, but it's still growing and hitting new highs.
Then the newer sites: MedicalMaskSuperstore.com (up & down with the pandemic), and very recently, FashionFaceMasks.com, WorldOfPets.com, UsaFashion.com, WomensFashionWholesale.com. Those last 4 are all growing consistently, but WomensFashionWholesale.com has done the best.
Notice, it's the wholesale sites that are doing the best. This is a recent thing Danny started right after closing the physical stores. The wholesale sites encourage people to set up their own online storefronts (& even gives advice on how!), and use the wholesale site for fulfillment. The larger the orders placed, the bigger the discounts. This is enticing for Americans making their own ecommerce sites, because usually they'd have to negotiate with manufacturers in China or other countries. Here, you have someone with a warehouse in LA, who you can pick up the phone and call if there are any problems, and they speak the same language. I think this is why the wholesale sites are seeing faster traffic growth.
Note that the reported total assets are 1.3 Million as you listed.
However, the websites would have more value than that if they were valued based just on potential advertising from page views. Of course, they don't want to allow advertising, since they want to promote their OWN merch, but based on traffic, this site assigns a value to each site:
https://leggingswholesale.com.siteindices.com/
Add up all the values listed on that site, for the Bravada websites I know of, and you get $8.1 million. That's over a penny per share ($0.0115).
Q4 has never been reported separately. It has always been part of the annual.