Sunday, February 21, 2021 7:01:39 PM
I wonder if people were just running out of money, with the delay in stimulus checks & unemployment until just after the new year... or perhaps being conservative until they knew help was coming.
Even though the pandemic kept getting worse in Q4, traffic on the mask sites peaked in October and dropped from there. I think there was finally enough supply to meet demand as of October, so everyone bought more than they needed, then sales dropped sharply even as the need increased.
The Feb 1st mask mandates probably boosted traffic & sales again, at least for a little while, but that'll only help Q1. Another help for retail in Q1 will be the January stimulus and resumption of unemployment, so I expect Q1 to stay at Q4 level or slightly better.
Q2 mask sales will drop again, but other stuff will begin the return to post-pandemic normalcy, and the new BRAV sites should start to contribute in a meaningful way mid-year.
In all I expect $1.1m to $1.2m per quarter through Q2, then a rise from there, but what's hard to predict is how fast the rise will be. When there's a quarter that exceeds $1.5m, we should see things blast off.
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