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Perspective: Henry Paulson
Dealing With China
By Henry M. Paulson, Jr.
http://www.paulsoninstitute.org/about/about-letter-from-the-chairman/dealing-with-china/
1. Help those who help ourselves.
2. Shine a light; nothing good happens in the dark.
3. Speak with one voice. We need to definite, prioritize, and coordinate our many issues to speak to the Chinese with one voice.
4. Find China a better seat at the table.
5. Demonstrate economic leadership abroad.
6. Find more ways to say yes. Rather than trying to persuade the Chinese to adopt our approach to everything, we might be better off devising new policies together—or recasting older policies in new, fresh terms. The U.S. cannot “fix” China’s growth model any more than the Chinese can “fix” our fiscal problems. But separate U.S. and Chinese efforts to reform and rebalance our respective economies would put us on a more complementary footing.
7. Avoid surprises.
8. Act in ways that reflect Chinese realities. Facts, not wishes or dreams, should direct our dealings. China is very different from the U.S., and we cannot be guided only by the understandable desire that it become more like us. We need to know as much as possible about what is going on inside China and be self-confident and realistic enough to focus on what is doable.
Hank Paulson: Economic challenges, China — and the birds
USA TODAY 9:44 a.m. EDT April 13
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/04/12/hank-paulson-dealing-with-china-book/25596947/
>> Zero posts ! disappointing, eh ?
The blueprint has been laid out ( link ) in a progressive manner, way ahead of the time; The Autumnal Equinox is coming ( September 23, at 08:20 UTC). Traditionally, this is the harvest season.
Shining Gold, Comrades, Good Luck!
Perspective: Gold - F. William Engdahl
Comments:
As the history wheel moves on, one of the reflections on the Rise and Fall of Empires is: The "ecology" of determining the value of Gold vs. Fiat money may change.
FYI FWIW
Away From Dollar: Russia, China to Create Entirely Different Gold Market
August 16, 2015 Author: F. William Engdahl
While key Western banks are artificially restraining gold prices to breathe life into the diluted and devalued dollar system, Russia, China and other emerging economies are involved in "the genial move" to establish an entirely different gold market, F. William Engdahl underscores.
http://sputniknews.com/business/20150816/1025811280.html#ixzz3izjz8gsS
The Worth of Gold Growing by the Day
August 12, 2015 Author: F. William Engdahl
The worth of gold in the world is growing by the day. That might seem like a paradox but it isn’t. The worth of gold is not fixed on the Comex futures exchange, or the trade in London or Zurich. True, most of the gold-trading public takes its cue today from the CME’s COMEX gold futures price where it does not at all look like the worth of a bar of gold is growing. Why can we then speak of gold’s worth rising?
http://journal-neo.org/2015/08/12/the-worth-of-gold-growing-by-the-day/
tony caldaro says:
August 19, 2015 at 7:09 pm
bear
you will not see another bull market in Gold until the 2030’s
Gary Lewis says:
August 19, 2015 at 7:34 pm
That’s quite a statement Tony.
https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2015/08/19/wednesday-update-505/#comments
Perspective - BILL GROSS
FYI FWIW
BILL GROSS: The Fed will hike rates in September
JENNIFER ABLAN, REUTERS, Aug. 19, 2015, 10:58 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-bill-gross-fed-will-hike-rates-in-sept-as-financial-conditions-a-priority-2015-8
Federal Reserve will hike rates in September as financial market conditions take precedence over economic conditions.
Bill Gross Says the Fed Will Raise Rates in September
Mary Childs Jul 30, 2015
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-30/gross-sees-fed-raising-rates-in-september-to-fight-distortions
Bill Gross said the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in September, because the central bank increasingly realizes that loose monetary policy isn’t helping the global economy.
... zero percent interest rates ... are part of the problem.”
Crude oil just crashed to a fresh six-year low
There goes oil ...
AKIN OYEDELE Aug. 19, 2015, 10:46 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/crude-oil-price-august-19-2015-8
The sharp drop in oil comes after the Energy Information Administration's weekly release showed that crude inventories rose by 2.6 million barrels last week, although production fell.
Inventories remain at the highest level for this time of year in at least 80 years.
08/19/15 MISC
Eric Hadik
- http://www.consensus-inc.com/002001i/knay1537/tech/0812tec-itt.htm
- 1st phase window 04/15-09/15 (two clusters, cycle progression)
- 32-33 week cycle zooms in 09/14-18 or 09/21-25
- 2nd phase window (freeware to be released by Eric Hadik )
Here is my projection summary
- for SPX/RUT/DJI
- hunting low Rail using simple Fibonacci series.
- +/- one Fibo cluster, numbers to be fine-tuned
(1) RUT
- August 18, 2015, 7:54:24 PM Web Time stamp
- chart:
http://www.chartupload.com/images/33681636234289593881.jpg
(2) SPX
- Sunday, 08/09/15 08:51:00 PM
1560.33-2134.72
0.2360 1999.16
0.3820 1915.30
0.4045 1902.38
(3) DJI
Friday, 08/14/15 03:30:28 PM
chart:
http://www.chartupload.com/images/99837145992813643210.jpg
(4) Gold/GDX
Thursday, 08/13/15 10:55:47 PM
1111.25 0.2360 support
1125.18 0.3236 ( 1126.30 08/13/15 )
1134.48 0.3820 resistance
On a closing basis, gold price closes above 1125.18 to usher in another bounce into middle September
08/19 1129.00 1115.50 (ongoing)
08/18 1120.40 1108.50
08/17 1122.20 1112.90
08/14 1120.40 1111.10
08/13 1126.30 1112.80
08/12 1125.50 1101.10
08/11 1119.10 1093.30
08/10 1108.50 1089.00
08/07 1098.90 1081.40
08/06 1093.30 1082.70
08/05 1091.70 1082.00
08/04 1094.40 1080.20
08/03 1098.00 1085.10
07/31 1103.00 1079.20
07/30 1098.20 1081.50
07/29 1101.50 1089.80
07/28 1098.70 1091.10
07/27 1104.90 1088.00
07/24 1101.50 1073.70<--- swing Low
Tuesday, 07/28/15 01:04:01 AM
it is premature to give the low target. For fun, based on the latest data, the theoretical E-wave low target is 2379.80. don’t count on this fun guess. President Xi will meet President Obama in coming September, let’s see what kind “deals” they can roll out.
Goldman Sachs "new order", LOL
Last update 05/19 link
GOLDMAN: For the stock market, 'flat is the new up'
MYLES UDLAND Aug. 17, 2015, 8:41 AM
In a note to clients over the weekend, Kostin and his team outlined 4 main reasons why the S&P 500 probably won't do much of anything for the rest of the year and finish at 2,100.
Full text:
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-on-sideways-stock-market-2015-8
GOLDMAN: Our clients recently asked us a surprising question
MYLES UDLAND Aug. 17, 2015, 7:08 PM
"One surprising question that clients have asked recently is the prospect for a US recession in 2016," Goldman Sachs' David Kostin wrote in a new research note. "An economic contraction is decidedly NOT in our forecast."
Full text:
http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-our-clients-surprising-question-2015-8
>> Chart of the Yuan's devaluation
text source: http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/04/14/us-china-yuan-timeline-idUSBRE83D03820120414
currencies devaluation % against USD in period 07/2014-07/2015 (before Yuan's August/15 devaluation, red color bar denotes devaluation)
Perspective
China’s Doing Yellen’s Job, China’s Attack on the Greenback
China’s Doing Yellen’s Job and Creating a Trillion Dollar Profit Pivot
Keith Fitz-Gerald Aug 12, 2015
http://totalwealthresearch.com/2015/08/chinas-doing-yellens-job-and-creating-a-trillion-dollar-profit-pivot/
Despite what the markets seem to think and many news sources would have you believe, China’s move to devalue the yuan is not an act of desperation intended to prop up a failing economy. It’s not a surprise. And, it sure as heck is not the end of the financial universe as we know it.
Instead, it’s a brilliant move that singlehandedly changes the investing landscape.
- China’s Attack on the Greenback
- China is doing Yellen’s job.
China Bites The Cherry - Paul Krugman
China Bites The Cherry
AUGUST 12, 2015 8:56 AM August 12, 2015 8:56 am
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/08/12/china-bites-the-cherry/?_r=0
Are you staring to have the feeling that when it comes to economic policy Xi-who-must-be-obeyed has no idea what he’s doing?
08/14/15 DJI
DJI first low leg target projection
- Odd will increase when index moves below 17037.76
- 17151.56-17037.76 is a support cluster
recent test attempt: 17125.81 on 08/12/15
- 16588.25-16333.78 is another support cluster
The Worth of Gold Growing by the Day
FYI FWIW
The Worth of Gold Growing by the Day
August 12, 2015 Author: F. William Engdahl
http://journal-neo.org/2015/08/12/the-worth-of-gold-growing-by-the-day/
...... Organizations representing gold investors such as GATA have documented in detail for years how the manipulations of the gold price was carried out ..... We are left with a gold market where the price is manipulated, as with crude oil, by large banks and Western central banks who decide the ultimate price.
Building a new gold market
This disconnect clearly does not please major gold buyers such as China or Russia or others. Rather than scream and cry “fraud” at the owners of the COMEX/CME or the London Bullion Market Association Big Six clearing banks, these countries are involved in the genial move to create an entirely different gold market, one that not JP MorganChase or HSBC or Deutsche Bank control, but one that China, Russia and others of a like mind control. It fits nicely with the recent creation of the BRICS countries’ BRICS New Development Bank and the Shanghai-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB).
08/13/15 Gold
1232.80 05/18/15 swing high
1073.70 07/24/15 swing low
http://www.chartupload.com/images/48673066290000646623.jpg
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
1111.25 0.2360 support
1125.18 0.3236 ( 1126.30 08/13/15 )
1134.48 0.3820 resistance
On a closing basis, gold price closes above 1125.18 to usher in another bounce into middle September
an inner loop to test the old Fibonacci point 1131.09 (see quote, Lara Iriarte)
1125.18-1134.48
1130.93 0.618
GOLD Elliott Wave Technical Analysis
By: Lara Iriarte | Thu, Jul 2, 2015
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38151/gold-elliott-wave-technical-analysis
Summary: It is increasingly likely that the trend is down. Final confirmation would come with a new low below 1,131.09.
Note: quoted price may show some discrepancy due to different tacking reference and/or revision.
Crude oil is collapsing to a 6-year low.
Crude oil is sliding to new lows
AKIN OYEDELE Aug. 13, 2015, 9:54 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/crude-oil-price-august-13-2015-8
Gold/Miner & USD
US Dollar Index - Sep 15 (DXU5) 96.12, -1.11, -1.14%
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
Aug 07, 2015 98.42 (swing high)
Gold Futures - Dec 15 (GCZ5) 1,123.30, +15.60, +1.41%
http://www.investing.com/commodities/gold-historical-data
Jul 24, 2015 1073.70 (swing low)
Sunday, 08/09/15 08:51:00 PM
dollar may have reached the strong resistance, thus a good news for Gold bugs. Eric Hadik projects a much larger Gold advance in 2016.
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/13611574782314634810.jpg
dindindon Friday, 07/03/15 02:36:30 PM
07/03/15 Gold
The down trend opened a decent Short swing trade opportunity
dindindon Monday, 06/15/15 10:39:45 PM
FTSE China 50 Index is deteriorating obviously.
any one bought Yang/FXP?
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/31897513726341415006.jpg
Perspective
dindindon Tuesday, 08/11/15 10:05:48 PM
China devalue Yuan another 1008 base points
this is a series of strategic actions that requires a separate post to cover the reasons why.
IMF Details Hurdles to Yuan Reserve-Currency Bid
Market restrictions pose difficulties that could push decision into next year
By IAN TALLEY Updated Aug. 4, 2015 7:16 p.m. ET
WASHINGTON—China will likely have to move ahead with market liberalization before the International Monetary Fund labels the country’s Yuan a reserve currency, IMF officials said Tuesday, signaling a decision could be pushed into next year.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/imf-raises-concerns-about-yuan-as-reserve-currency-1438724277
http://business-news.biz/imf-details-hurdles-to-yuan-reserve-currency-bid/
REVIEW OF THE METHOD OF THE VALUATION OF THE SDR—INITIAL CONSIDERATIONS
Section 5: OPERATIONAL ISSUES
http://www.imf.org/external/np/pp/eng/2015/071615.pdf
SPECIAL DRAWING RIGHT REVIEW
IMF Work Progresses on 2015 SDR Basket Review
IMF Survey August 4, 2015
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/POL080415A.htm
There's an important, overlooked angle to China's big move in the currency market
ELENA HOLODNY Aug. 12, 2015, 10:14 AM
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-imf-welcomes-chinas-yuan-devaluation-2015-8
>> Will Avi Gilburt miss the gold turnaround ?
jumanji0881
i did not quote any Gold outlook from Avi Gilburt, i can not make comments on his calls; His gold archive can be found via the following link:
Avi Gilburt
http://www.gold-eagle.com/authors/avi-gilburt
my latest gold discussions can be found in
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=115903417
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=116071029
Gold & miner stocks are two different entity, things could be quite involved if you put Silver into the scope too. from profit potential, imho, miner ETFs will reward much bigger than Gold ETFs in the next 6 - 12 months. ( scalp is a different story ).
China devalue Yuan another 1008 base points
developing news:
2015-08-12 09:21 (China Date & Time)
1st: 08/11 central point 6.2298 (float +/- 2%)
2nd: 08/12 central point 6.3306 1008 base points
Chinese web site: http://finance.qq.com/a/20150812/017723.htm
They Did It Again - China Sinks Yuan 1.7%
Updated Aug. 11, 2015 9:55 p.m. ET
http://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-first-post-devaluation-yuan-fixing-eyed-1439340335
USD/CNY pair surged as high as 6.4301 from its last close of 6.3231 - nearing the 2.0% daily trading limit which stands at 6.4600 - but is now at 6.4115
Australian dollar plummets as China devalues yuan again
August 12, 2015 - 11:46AM
http://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/currencies/australian-dollar-plummets-as-china-devalues-yuan-again-20150812-gix826.html
The Australian dollar was slammed again on Wednesday as Chinese authorities once again devalued its currency against the US dollar.
The dollar had recovered slightly on the back of an unanticipated surge in domestic consumer sentiment on Wednesday morning to reach US73.2¢, before the Beijing lowered the midpoint of its yuan currency by 1.6 per cent to 6.3306 per US dollar.
Direxion Announces Reverse Share Splits
NEW YORK—August 7, 2015
Direxion Announces Reverse Share Splits of Six Leveraged ETFs. effective at the open of the market on September 10, 2015.
ETF Ratio
NUGT 1:10
TZA 1:4
Insight: Tesla burns cash
Insight: Tesla burns cash, loses more than $4,000 on every car sold
Sun Aug 9, 2015 7:05am EDT
DETROIT | BY JOSEPH WHITE AND PAUL LIENERT
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/09/us-teslamotors-cash-insight-idUSKCN0QE0DC20150809
08/09 MISC
(1) GOLD ( USD )
Whether gold price will turn up from its July low (07/24) into a sustainable way depends on the strength of the dollar (at least partially), from the following charts & re-post, dollar may have reached the strong resistance, thus a good news for Gold bugs. Eric Hadik projects a much larger Gold advance in 2016.
dindindon Wednesday, 04/29/15 09:45:31 AM
U.S. Dollar: Evidence of Important Top
04/13 - 100.27 (EDIT 100.27 < 100.78)
http://www.investing.com/quotes/us-dollar-index-historical-data
dindindon Monday, 12/08/14 02:19:23 PM
(1.1) Middle term upper rail projection
http://www.chartupload.com/images/35572302753628157028.jpg
18062 18657
17975 18103 18230 18357 18485
The Oil Crash Has Caused a $1.3 Trillion Wipeout
jumanji0881 Friday, 08/07/15 07:05:17 PM
1) Implosion of shale oil junk debt
2) US budget and debt limit wrangling
3) Greece in the cross-hairs
4) Fed rate increase (very doubtful)
5) China slowdown
The Oil Crash Has Caused a $1.3 Trillion Wipeout
Energy shares have taken a huge hit
Asjylyn Loder
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-04/the-oil-crash-has-caused-a-1-3-trillion-wipeout
chart: http://assets.bwbx.io/images/i7_EUKkgNrtM/v2/-1x-1.jpg
State pension funds and insurance companies have also been hard hit.
>> oil
imho, oil price is the function of (USD, Demand/Supply, global economic conditions (a nested factor of Demad) ) . Ordinary people like me has no resources to sort out such a complicated function. Recently, the deflationists are making loud noise, they may have their merit. i think oil sector is not a good new entry (for Buy-&-Hold) play at this time period. in essence: keep watching with a Hold stance.
i sold my long-held COP long time ago, I don’t own oil stocks, and will not do scalp on this sector.
Oil Will Fall to $45, Says Goldman Sachs’ Jeff Currie
Commodities strategist also warns that markets have access to too much capital relative to future demand.
JULY 20, 2015
http://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/3472502/research-and-rankings/oil-will-fall-to-45-says-goldman-sachs-jeff-currie.html
The International Energy Agency recently warned that oil prices are likely to fall further. Do you share this view?
Yes. Continued growth in low-cost production, from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia, in the face of resilient U.S. production and sharply declining production costs leaves the market oversupplied despite a decent demand response so far.
Crude OIL and SP500 Intraday - Elliott Wave Analysis
By: Gregor Horvat | Mon, Aug 3, 2015
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38485/crude-oil-and-sp500-intraday-elliott-wave-analysis
Crude oil is falling sharply making a new impulsive cycle from above $49 that can represent wave five in a bigger extended wave three. At the moment we see room down for decline to around 45 area before we may look for a bottom, most likely later this week.
08/03/15 SPX
(The followers of) Bull has "bullied" (the followers of the) bear for too long .....
it is about the time the pendulum shifts from one extreme towards the other side.
( The Fox Borrows the Tiger's Ferocity link )
according to Eric Hadik, a ~20% correction no later than late September, (imho: gives some margin for such a long cycle projection, again, whipsaw is very pain, first bird got killed, second bird got the worm. wait for signals)
Eric Hadik 06/05/15 STOCK I NDICES
http://40yearcycle.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/Gold-Silver-Stocks-40YearCycle.pdf
(and some of his other commentaries)
Stock indices are slowly showing signs of topping and have entered the time from late April - late Sept. 2015- when they are most vulnerable to a significant decline.
The SPX may finally be ready to make its move
By Avi Gilburt
Published: Aug 3, 2015 11:06 a.m. ET
As I have been saying for weeks now, I do not have a strong edge as to which direction the market is going to take for its next bigger move, and I am looking for a strong clue. Early next week will likely provide that clue, and should provide us with a directional bias for at least the next few weeks, if not few months.
PREPARING FOR THE CRASH - S&P500 INDEX ANALYSIS - INVERSE ETFS & PUTS TIMING...
originally published July 31st, 2015
http://www.clivemaund.com/article.php?art_id=3521
dindindon Friday, 07/17/15 10:41:49 AM
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=115484128
In spite of those Bullish E-wave calls, the QE induced, mighty SPX shows deterioating sign in monthly chart; i speculate SPX will not reach the middle term target 2213.50 (major:1.500/2130.46, 1.618/2213.50) in the next few months.
08/03/15 Gold/Miner
Eric Hadik projected a multi-year bottom (way ahead of the time) in Gold & Silver - projected for July 2015 (later zoomed in July 13--24th.)
The high volume gold/miner ETF sell-off on 07/21 and subsequent decreasing volume provides some sort of guide that gold price has put a major bottom (needs to be confirmed). the action on resting the higher point (GDX 14.53 07/21) on the high volume sell off date will give a clue whether Gold will start a short-to-middle term upward movement. imho, in the coming days, China stock market, commodities, stocks all ties with the “global scale” game of dollar/interest rate.
Friday, 07/03/15 02:36:30 PM
The down trend opened a decent Short swing trade opportunity
Friday, 07/17/15 10:03:35 AM
NUGT wait for sign of reversing for safer bet
US-hedge-fund Citadel banned from share-trading-on Shenzhen account
US hedge fund Citadel banned from share trading on Shenzhen account
link (slow web site)
A giant US hedge fund just had one of its trading accounts suspended in China
08/03/15 LINETTE LOPEZ
http://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-account-suspended-in-china-2015-8
"spoofing." - Spoofing is pretty simple. It is where a trader puts on a huge order, watches the market react, and then cancels the order while also taking advantage of the market reaction their order created.
LinkedIn Plunges in After-Hours Despite Earnings Beat
After Hours : 216.16 Down 10.99 (4.84%) 7:59PM EDT
link
getmenews: What is the total-market-capitalization of the DOW?
Face Book market cap is bigger than GE.
>> So, how long before the-whole-thing crashes?
FYI FWIW
Don't shoot the messenger
Keep things in perspective
Larry Edelson, Senior Analyst, Weiss Research
07/30,2015 Via mail
Q: Frances asks, “When exactly will U.S. stocks fall? Will it be before Oct. 7th or after Oct 7th? And when will the money from other countries begin to flow into stocks. Will that be roughly after Oct 7th?”
A: I see some minor weakness in U.S. stocks now and we may see a moderate correction — a normal event in every great bull market — at some point in the next few months. But increasing flows of flight capital from Europe will make any short-term correction short and relatively shallow.
The timetable suggested by my cycles research indicates that the meltdown in Europe will begin in earnest after October 7. Japan will follow suit, defaulting on its debt most likely in the first half of 2016. The third domino to fall — the United States — will likely collapse in 2017.
That means you have plenty of time to prepare — and plenty of time to make money as Europe and Japan implode between now and 2017. That way, you should have plenty of wealth to invest in inverse ETFs and options on U.S. stocks when the crisis comes to America.
Facebook (FB) Stock Falls in After-Hours
Facebook profit falls 9 pct as costs soar, shares slip
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-profit-falls-9-pct-201828692.html
Facebook Revenue Tops Estimates; Shares Drop as Spending Surges
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/facebook-earnings-beat-estimates-201147444.html
Facebook (FB) Stock Falls in After-Hours Trading Despite Earnings Beat
http://www.thestreet.com/story/13236861/1/facebook-fb-stock-falls-in-after-hours-trading-despite-earnings-beat.html?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO
nowwhat>> A possible case for a-bounce in-the-OILS....
very good call, Energy setor bounce continues.
ETF XLE XES IYE VDE ...
stocks COP OXY TOT CEO CVX PTR SU LYB MPC PSX ...
Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Release Date: July 29, 2015
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/monetary/20150729a.htm
For immediate release
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that economic activity has been expanding moderately in recent months. Growth in household spending has been moderate and the housing sector has shown additional improvement; however, business fixed investment and net exports stayed soft. The labor market continued to improve, with solid job gains and declining unemployment. On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources has diminished since early this year. Inflation continued to run below the Committee's longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and decreasing prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators continuing to move toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee continues to see the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced. Inflation is anticipated to remain near its recent low level in the near term, but the Committee expects inflation to rise gradually toward 2 percent over the medium term as the labor market improves further and the transitory effects of earlier declines in energy and import prices dissipate. The Committee continues to monitor inflation developments closely.
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain this target range, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when it has seen some further improvement in the labor market and is reasonably confident that inflation will move back to its 2 percent objective over the medium term.
The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. This policy, by keeping the Committee's holdings of longer-term securities at sizable levels, should help maintain accommodative financial conditions.
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Charles L. Evans; Stanley Fischer; Jeffrey M. Lacker; Dennis P. Lockhart; Jerome H. Powell; Daniel K. Tarullo; and John C. Williams.
2015 Monetary Policy Releases
Gold-Miners Bullish-%-Index, closed at 0.00% on 24th-July-15
FYI FWIW
Gold Miners Bullish % Index, closed at 0.00% on 24th July 15.
IT IS 100% CERTAIN THAT THIS WILL RALLY!!...
Clive P. Maund July 27th, 2015
link
>> Am not so sure it's a currency war
just pick one commentary for your reference.
FYI
06.03.2015 | 22:18
EDITOR'S CHOICE
Strategic-Culture.org
Dollar Imperialism, 2015 Edition
link
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership has the same goal. Weakening Russia and China (and the BRICS in general) on a military, economic and political level, with a regime change in mind, is a fundamental part of the US strategy for maintaining dollar hegemony
In 1997, the US interest rate hike of only a quarter of a point was one of the main reasons for the “Asian crisis,” as hot money fled South-East Asia. Today in 2015, the end of QE, a strengthening dollar and an anticipated rise in US interest rates could wreak havoc in developing economies. Since 2009, trillions of dollars hot off the printing press or borrowed at near zero rates have been flooding into the global South and East. But today’s monetary tightening is already leading to an exodus of hot money that is destabilizing these countries, with the effect of keeping the United States’ rivals in the “emerging” world down.
The World Bank warned in January against a “disorderly unwinding of financial vulnerabilities.” According to the Financial Times on February 6, there is a “swelling torrent of ‘hot money’ cascad[ing] out of China.”Guan Tao, a senior Chinese official, said that $20 billion left China in December alone and that China’s financial condition “looks more and more like the Asian financial crisis” of the 1990s, and that we can “sense the atmosphere of the Asian financial crisis is getting closer and closer to us.” The anticipated rise of US interest rates this year, even by a quarter point as the Fed is hinting at, would exacerbate this trend and hit the BRICS and other developing countries with an even more violent blow, making their debt servicing even more expensive.
Market Manipulation Goes Global
STEPHEN S. ROACH
JUL 27, 2015 5
Market Manipulation Goes Global
NEW HAVEN – Market manipulation has become standard operating procedure in policy circles around the world. All eyes are now on China’s attempts to cope with the collapse of a major equity bubble. But the efforts of Chinese authorities are hardly unique. The leading economies of the West are doing pretty much the same thing – just dressing up their manipulation in different clothes.
link
07/27/15 Shanghai composite index
anecdotal key notes: ( in essence )
(1) At the time (June/14) FED gave the clear signal that QE Taper set to completion on October/14. The next major “process” is to “move” the QE hot money from emerging markets back to USA. Ever since that, the USD moved up progressively . Meanwhile, China launched the counter action, activated the strategic buying to pump the stock market via the hands of the “seed-bullet team”. This is a currency war. There is no other reason can explain why the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite index (SSEC) can be moved from 2200 to 5100 in such a short period in a slowing economy.
(2) anecdotal “optimized ignition” point is set at 8K (SSEC), at that ignition point the “big hands” will push the button. However, this deliberative game was “screwed” by “middle-size hands” prematurely, now we knew the 5K mark was the cracking point. So, the damage is “smaller” at 5K than 8K.
(3) There were quite a few reasons led the sell-off. But, the Leverage and Off-market asset allocation was the prime reason. Other than ordinary margin and short sell, investors can use house/apartment/valuable asset as the collateral, with about 12% “management” fee, they can engage large leverage in multiple accounts anonymously . The "smart" short sellers were reported hiding in these “second tier” brokerage house, some use cash-equivalents directly. They knew the system weak points, sold short and then covered, pocketed the profit in an invisible way. The good days for "smart" short sellers is coming to an end when China Security Agency announced to Investigate ‘Malicious’ Short Sales . We will get detailed report in the next few months.
(4) Then, China PPT joined the show. The major defending zone is 3.6-3.8K; it is said PPT will leave the market progressively after SSEC bounces back to 4.5K. This is a “white courtesy call”, you show your pokers to players, so the bounce will not reach 4.5K, at least not in a days or weeks. another rumor says when PPT leave, will 'roll over' the profit to the Torch Relayers (public Pension fund and public Health Care fund, big weight player) so these funds will have “front loaded” profit when they enter the market, sounds a good deal.
(5) Big losers are Mo MO gamblers. The following year-to-date (07/08) profit map give you a rough picture how much profit those winners made. When count form SEEC 2.2K, the profit would be even bigger. Off the map, the account holders attached to the off-market-loan-company got 500 billion (Short sellers).
(6) it is premature to give the low target. For fun, based on the latest data, the theoretical E-wave low target is 2379.80. don’t count on this fun guess. President Xi will meet President Obama in coming September, let’s see what kind “deals” they can roll out.
( source: (in Mandarin, No English sub, sorry)
Friday, 07/17/15 11:01:13 AM
The major (bounce) battle zone is 4000 +/- 100. (EDIT actual 4184.45, missed one Fib ratio, see chart)
Thursday, 07/09/15 12:49:34 AM
(1) 3426-3234
(2) 3410-3216
(3) 3324-3121
imho, 3373.54 is in the range of (1) and (2). So, the index might have reached a short term trade-able bottom.
Tuesday, 07/07/15 10:23:02 AM
Getting closer to a critical support, hard to say it will hold or not
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/13880981052075238850.jpg
Monday, 06/15/15 10:39:45 PM
FTSE China 50 Index is deteriorating obviously.
any one bought Yang/FXP?
chart: http://forexrainbow.com/images/31897513726341415006.jpg
Wednesday, 04/29/15 05:30:10 PM
the "art" of finding an optimized point.
Chinese stock market goes parabolic due to the intense currency war .....
Wednesday, 07/09/14 03:09:38 PM
End Date Of QE Is Officially In Sight
( FOMC June 17-18, 2014 : If the economy progresses about as the Committee expects, warranting reductions in the pace of purchases at each upcoming meeting, this final reduction would occur following the October meeting. )
Ops!, here is the link
Gold – It Ain’t Over Until the Fat Lady Sings
Posted on July 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/35296