imho, oil price is the function of (USD, Demand/Supply, global economic conditions (a nested factor of Demad) ) . Ordinary people like me has no resources to sort out such a complicated function. Recently, the deflationists are making loud noise, they may have their merit. i think oil sector is not a good new entry (for Buy-&-Hold) play at this time period. in essence: keep watching with a Hold stance.
i sold my long-held COP long time ago, I don’t own oil stocks, and will not do scalp on this sector.
The International Energy Agency recently warned that oil prices are likely to fall further. Do you share this view?
Yes. Continued growth in low-cost production, from countries like Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Russia, in the face of resilient U.S. production and sharply declining production costs leaves the market oversupplied despite a decent demand response so far.
Crude oil is falling sharply making a new impulsive cycle from above $49 that can represent wave five in a bigger extended wave three. At the moment we see room down for decline to around 45 area before we may look for a bottom, most likely later this week.
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